Carbon neutrality:China's energy transition over the past decade

China's energy transition is based on accelerating the construction of a clean,low-carbon,safe,and efficient new energy system(Fig.1),providing strong energy security for economic and social development;focusing on ecological civilization construction,and accelerating the formation of a new energy consumption model that is efficient,green,inclusive,and beneficial,while promoting carbon reduction,pollution reduction,expansion of green spaces,and economic growth.

A review of China's energy consumption structure and outlook based on a long-range energy alternatives modeling tool

China＇s energy consumption experienced rapid growth over the past three decades, raising great concerns for the future adjustment of China＇s energy consumption structure. This paper first presents the historical evidence on China＇s energy consumption by the fuel types and sectors. Then, by establishing a bottom-up accounting framework and using long-range energy alternatives plan- ning energy modeling tool, the future of China＇s energy consumption structure under three scenarios is forecast. According to the estimates, China＇s total energy con- sumption will increase from 3014 million tonnes oil equivalent （Mtoe） in 2015 to 4470 Mtoe in 2040 under the current policies scenario, 4040 Mtoe in 2040 under the moderate policies scenario and 3320 Mtoe in 2040 under the strong policies scenario, respectively, lower than those of the IEA＇s estimations. In addition, the clean fuels （gas, nuclear and renewables） could be an effective alternative to the conventional fossil fuels （coal and oil） and offer much more potential. Furthermore, the industry sector has much strong reduction potentials than the other sectors. Finally, this paper suggests that the Chinese government should incorporate consideration of adjustment of the energy consumption structure into existing energy policies and measures in the future.

Technological Progress,Structural Change and China's Energy Efficiency

China has witnessed rapid economic development since 1978, and during the time, energy production and consumption developed at a tremendous speed as well. Energy efficiency which can be measured by energy consumption per unit of GDP, however, experienced continuous decrease. Theoretically, the change of energy efficiency can be attributed to industry structural change and technological change. In order to explain the transformation of Chinese energy efficiency, we adopt logarithmic mean Divisia index techniques to decompose changes in energy intensity in the period of 1994-2005. We find that technological change is the dominant contributor in the decline of energy intensity, but the contribution has declined since 2001. The change in industry structure has decreased the energy intensity before 1998, but raised the intensity after 1998. Decomposed technological effects for all sectors indicate that technological progresses in high energy consuming industries such as raw chemical materials and chemical products, smelting and pressing of ferrous metals, manufacture of non-metallic mineral products and household contribute are the principal drivers of China's declining energy intensity.

Seven Decades of China's Energy Industry Development:Retrospect and Outlook

China’s coal,petroleum,natural gas and electric power industries are in different stages.Coal has a falling share in China’s energy mix,and clean coal is on the rise.While China’s petroleum production stagnates,the natural gas and electric power industries are developing rapidly.Amid the changing energy industries,China’s energy regulatory system has evolved from vertical to integrated management,and energy administrative and supervisory functions have become integrated over time.These changes have played different roles during specific periods,either enhancing or hampering a highefficient development of China’s energy industry.Over the past seven decades,China’s energy industry has acquired important capabilities to support the nation’s social and economic development.With industrial prowess in clean energy and energy efficiency,China has become a leader in global low-carbon and clean energy transition.In the future,China'should attach great importance to the adverse short-term effects of energy transition on its energy security.By deepening energy institutional reform,China'should enhance its energy security through energy transition.

Supply-Side Solutions to China's Energy Transition

Compared with the first two energy transitions in human history, the current third energy transition is characterized by the changing concepts of development. Considering its energy mix dominated by fossil fuels, China is faced with a daunting task of transition. This paper discusses the following policy recommendations on China＇s energy transition, including building a renewables-friendly electric power system, developing smart grids and electric vehicles, promoting cross-regional electric power transactions, encouraging financial innovation, and creating new energy industry investment funds to broaden financing channels and diversify investment entities.

Estimate of China's energy carbon emissions peak and analysis on electric power carbon emissions

China＇s energy carbon emissions are projected to peak in 2030 with approximately 110% of its 2020 level under the following conditions： 1） China＇s gross primary energy consumption is 5 Gtce in 2020 and 6 Gtce in 2030; 2） coal＇s share of the energy consumption is 61% in 2020 and 55% in 2030; 3） non-fossil energy＇s share increases from 15% in 2020 to 20% in 2030; 4） through 2030, China＇s GDP grows at an average annual rate of 6%; 5） the annual energy consumption elasticity coefficient is 0.30 in average; and 6） the annual growth rate of energy consumption steadily reduces to within 1%. China＇s electricity generating capacity would be 1,990 GW, with 8,600 TW h of power generation output in 2020. Of that output 66% would be from coal, 5% from gas, and 29% from non-fossil energy. By 2030, electricity generating capacity would reach 3,170 GW with 11,900 TW h of power generation output. Of that output, 56% would be from coal, 6% from gas, and 37% from non-fossil energy. From 2020 to 2030, CO2 emissions from electric power would relatively fall by 0.2 Gt due to lower coal consumption, and rela- tively fall by nearly 0.3 Gt with the installation of more coal-fired cogeneration units. During 2020--2030, the portion of carbon emissions from electric power in China＇s energy consumption is projected to increase by 3.4 percentage points. Although the carbon emissions from electric power would keep increasing to 118% of the 2020 level in 2030, the electric power industry would continue to play a decisive role in achieving the goal of increase in non-fossil energy use. This study proposes countermeasures and recommendations to control carbon emissions peak, including energy system optimization, green-coal-fired electricity generation, and demand side management.

The role of capital deepening in China's energy transition

This paper provides a theoretical model to explain the causality between China's energy transition and capital deepening found by the empirical study.We prove that in the equilibrium,China's energy transition is endogenously determined by capital deepening due to the homogeneity of electricity and the monopolistic competition features of China's electricity market.Price effect,which is the effect of change in relative factor price,will affect energy transition only if the policy intervenes electricity price in terms of the primary sources from which it is generated.We propose that investment can promote energy transition by stimulating capital deepening which is biased to clean energy development.In this regard,our paper provides a new way of thinking for other developing countries to design an effective energy transition policy.

China's energy, environment and policy perspective

This paper discusses the specific features of the energy in China, and addresses those key challenges in China is that the co\|exist of (1) higher total energy production and lower per capita level; (2) lower per capita energy resources level with unrational energy consumption structure; (3) lower energy utilization efficiency and higher energy conservation potential; and (4) unequal distribution of energy resources. It reviews the key environmental problems related to the feature of energy production and consumption. Based on the analysis, the author furthers addresses the policy and actions needed.

Perceiving China's Energy Development from the World Key Energy Statistics

As the world's authoritative organization on energy information, the International Energy Agency (IEA), which was founded in 1974, releases Key World Energy Statistics every year from 1997 (hereinafter referred to as the "Key Data"). The "Key Data" released in 2007 announced the 2005 statistics, and also provided the 1973 statistics for comparison. From the published data, we can clearly find the development path and trend of the world energy and power industry. Also, China's strong development momentum, high- speed growth of energy consumption and the enormous challenges in the sustainable energy supply are especially noticeable. This paper reviewed the "Key Data" to perceive China's Energy Development. The analysis and interpretation of these data are purely from the author's point of view.

China's Energy Policy:Past and Present

This paper analyses the evolution of China’s energy policies and reasons for their readjustment over time since 1978.Generally speaking,the foremost energy issue China faced during 1978-1993 was energy shortage,and China’s energy policies then focused on boosting energy construction and promoting energy investment etc.;from 1993 to 2005,China experienced rapid energy production growth and basically turned around the"demand outstrips supply"situation,and its energy policy priorities were then placed on adjusting the energy structure,rectifying the production order,and accelerating marketing reform etc.At the present stage,China faces three major energy issues:1)how to address environmental impacts in the process of energy production and consumption;2)how to ensure secure and stable energy supply;3)how to boost energy resource utilization efficiency.China’s energy policy priorities and measures will thus be changed accordingly.

Environmental Protection Legislation on China's Energy Development and In-situ Conversion

China's poor energy development and in-situ conversion legislation, environment laws and energy laws lead to a severe environmental issue in energy source. This paper uses comparison and logical methods to discuss Chapter 4 of Energy Law (Draft for Soliciting Opinions). Energy development is taken as a separate chapter; in-situ energy conversion is added to energy processing and conversion, common features are summarized to form general provisions and other provisions. According to respective characteristics of system for total amount control of energy development, performance guarantee system, environmental trust fund system, energy retaining system and environmental lien system, incorporate them into energy development, in-situ energy conversion and energy processing and conversion, in the hope of solving China's shortage of supply for environmental protection laws on energy development and in-situ conversion, responding to times of environmental protection, and optimizing China's Energy Law.

China's energy consumption growth picks up, structure improved

China＇s energy consumption in the first three quarters grew at a faster pace as use of renewable energy posted steady momentum, official data showed Tuesday. Coal used in building materials and the electric, steel and chemical industries accounted for 85 percent of overall coal consumption during the first nine months, data released by the National Energy Administration （NEA） showed. While petroleum consumption remained steady,

America's Journey to Energy Independence and Its Revelation on China's Energy Supply Security

Ever since 2005, the US' shale oil and gas production growth and effective adjustment of domestic energy consumption mix have made it possible for the country to be less dependent upon imported energy and gain energy independence. What should we learn from it to guarantee energy supply security? This paper tried to answer the question.

Analysis of China's Energy Industrial Development Trend in 2016

Nowadays,China has become the world’s largest energy producer,consumer and CO_2 emitter.Although the economic growth is slowing down,China still has a bigger portion in world’s energy demand increment for its larger economic volume and is an important endogenous factor of global energy market.

The tail risk safe haven property of China's energy futures against US market implied volatility

This paper analyses the tail risk contagion of US market implied volatility(USIV)on China's energy futures(CEF)markets,exploring how to utilize operations in the CEF to achieve a safe haven.Leveraging CEF characteristics to simultaneously take both long-/short-positions and engage in long-/short-run investment horizons,this paper defines eight different CEF safe haven attributes to counteract the tail risk of extreme increases in USIV.Using trading data from March 27,2018,to October 30,2023,the empirical results show that,first,in the analysis of the entire sample period,China's coking coal futures can serve as a weak safe haven,aiding long-position investors in mitigating the tail risks associated with US gold and stock market implied volatility.Coking coal futures also assist short-position investors in countering US stock market implied volatility tail risk.Second,in the sub-period analysis,the safe haven attributes of CEF exhibit strong heterogeneity and asymmetry across different periods.Finally,the time span during which CEF exhibits a particular safe haven attribute does not persist for an extended period.

Significance of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060 on China's energy transition pathway: A multi-model comparison analysis

China has proposed to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060.Although previous studies have assessed net-zero emissions pathways in China,the diversity observed in these studies in terms of model construction and parameter setting has led to inconsistent conclusions on some key issues,such as energy transition.This study employs a multi-model comparison method to examine the significance of China's carbon neutrality target on its energy systems by assessing 67 carbon neutrality scenarios in China that are collected from the ADVANCE database,and identifying the differences between energy transition pathways under BEF60 scenarios(i.e.scenarios realising carbon neutrality by 2060)and AFT60 scenarios(i.e.scenarios realising carbon neutrality after 2060).Results show that China needs a larger deployment of low-carbon electricity,a higher electrification rate and more carbon sequestration amount under BEF60 scenarios than those under AFT60 scenarios.Meanwhile,the magnitude of the difference between the two categories of scenarios varies significantly in terms of different outcome indicators.Those that present significant disparities include the deployment scale of solar power(increasing by 160%),the electrification rate of the building sector(increasing by 27%)and the carbon sequestration amount of biomass power with carbon capture and storage(increasing by 380%).In addition,this study selects six indicators to present the technological and economic characteristics of various energy systems of China at the point of net-zero emissions.Exploring the relationships between characteristics,this research identifies the common features among various net-zero energy systems.A great share of non-biomass renewable power generation is always associated with a relatively high per capita energy use,implying that high renewables penetration may relax restrictions on energy consumption,which should be addressed for China when making efforts to promote energy transition.