Factors affecting the pilot trading market of carbon emissions in China

Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.

Localization Reform of Carbon Emissions Trading Mechanism in China

Based on the practical experiences of Guangdong carbon emissions trading pilot, the key issues such as cap setting, allowance alloca- tion, system defects, regulatory integration and MRV mechanisms were analyzed in this paper from the localization perspective. A number of solu- tions and policy recommendations were also proposed in this study in order to solve these barriers.

Construction of legal system of carbon emissions trading in China

Countries in the world have taken a variety of means to control carbon emissions based on the serious situation of global warming,the concept of low-carbon economy and the provisions about emissions in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol.With the measures of emissions reductions,the system of carbon emissions trading is taking shape.It is necessary for China as the big natural resources consumption country to establish its own carbon emissions trading system.By introducing the carbon emissions trading system of the European Union,America and Japan,and analyzing the market and policies been formed,the carbon emissions trading system in China can be established from the initial configuration of the emissions rights,the subject and object of carbon emissions trading,establishing the carbon emissions trading exchange and supervising and regulating the carbon emissions trading.

For CO<SUB>2</SUB>Emission Trading in China, Can the Market Become a National One, Four Years after Creating Seven Local Markets?

In this paper, we assess the existing seven local pilot carbon emission trading schemes in China and analyse the factors determining whether China’s carbon market is successful in terms of handling substantial amounts of CO2 emissions rights, regulating the market and trading them at a reasonable price. The emission trading system is developing slowly in most of the participating provinces and cities. Prices tend to decline, while volumes trading slowly increase. The volatility is partially the result of regulation (the rights need to be renewed before a certain date) and partially due to government interventions in the market. Based on the assessment, recommendations are provided for China implementing a national carbon market, based on the experiences and lessons learnt from the seven local carbon emission trading schemes. Conditions for China to roll out the system and later improve the national emission trading scheme to replace the existing local emission trading schemes are formulated.

The Influence of Allowance Allocation Methods on CO2 Emission Reduction： Experiences From the Seven China Pilots

One of the key elements influencing the performance of a carbon trading system, are the methods of allocating the initial CO2 emissions. This paper tries to use a quantitative description method to analyze the influence of the different allocation methods on the level of CO2 emissions based on the seven pilot trading markets from 2009 to 2013 in China. The results show that different methods bring about various degrees of impacts, through direct and indirect constraint mechanism, influence the CO2 emission cut finally. Although due to the complexity of the direct and indirect constraint mechanism, attempting to compare the effects of different allocation methods is difficult by using the data of carbon emission cut from seven pilot markets in China, the paper shows that the allowance allocation methods, through the constraints imposed on enterprises, significantly reduce regional carbon emissions.

Technology strategies to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality for China's metal mines

Greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions related to human activities have significantly caused climate change since the Industrial Revolution.China aims to achieve its carbon emission peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.Accordingly,this paper reviews and discusses technical strategies to achieve the“dual carbon”targets in China’s metal mines.First,global carbon emissions and emission intensities from metal mining industries are analyzed.The metal mining status and carbon emissions in China are then examined.Furthermore,advanced technologies for carbon mitigation and carbon sequestration in metal mines are reviewed.Finally,a technical roadmap for achieving carbon neutrality in China’s metal mines is proposed.Findings show that some international mining giants have already achieved their carbon reduction targets and planned to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.Moreover,improving mining efficiency by developing advanced technologies and replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy are two key approaches in reducing GHG emissions.Green mines can significantly benefit from the carbon neutrality process for metal mines through the carbon absorption of reclamation vegetations.Geothermal energy extraction from operating and abandoned metal mines is a promising technology for providing clean energy and contributing to the carbon neutrality target of China’s metal mines.Carbon sequestration in mine backfills and tailings through mineral carbonation has the potential to permanently and safely store carbon dioxide,which can eventually make the metal mining industry carbon neutral or even carbon negative.

An analysis of China's CO_2 emission peaking target and pathways

China has set the goal for its CO2 emissions to peak around 2030, which is not only a strategic decision coordinating domestic sustainable development and global climate change mitigation but also an overarching target and a key point of action for China＇s resource conservation, environmental protection, shift in economic development patterns, and CO2 emission reduction to avoid climate change. The development stage where China maps out the CO2 emission peak target is earlier than that of the developed countries. It is a necessity that the non-fossil energy supplies be able to meet all the increased energy demand for achieving CO2 emission peaking. Given that China＇s potential GDP annual increasing rate will be more than 4%, and China＇s total energy demand will continue to increase by approximately 1.0%--1.5% annually around 2030, new and renewable energies will need to increase by 6%-8% annually to meet the desired CO2 emission peak. The share of new and renewable energies in China＇s total primary energy supply will be approximately 20% by 2030. At that time, the energy consumption elasticity will decrease to around 0.3, and the annual decrease in the rate of CO2 intensity will also be higher than 4% to ensure the sustained growth of GDE To achieve the CO2 emission peaking target and substantially promote the low-carbon deve!opment transformation, China needs to actively promote an energy production and consumption revolution, the innovation of advanced energy technologies, the reform of the energy regulatory system and pricing mechanism, and especially the construction of a national carbon emission cap and trade system.

Multi-model comparison of CO2 emissions peaking in China:Lessons from CEMF01 study

The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.

Is pork trade good for China's greenhouse gas emissions?

China produces the largest amount of pork in the world, which emits the largest amount of greenhouse gases （GHGs）. This paper calculates GHG emissions from China＇s hog production at the provincial level using newly published emission factors~ Empirical results show that GHG emissions from China＇s hog production mainly respond to the scale intensity~ Capital abundance and income contribute positively to GI-IG emissions from hog production. Pork trade increases GHG emissions from China＇s hog produc- tion with a significantly direct effect, reduces GHG emissions through indirect technique effects.

碳排放权交易对试点地区绿色发展的影响及溢出效应——基于PSM-DID和SDID模型的实证分析

在碳中和、碳达峰背景下,本文选用2003~2021年全国273个地级市的面板数据,以碳排放权交易试点(CETP)为出发点,用生态效率测度绿色发展水平,通过PSM-DID和SDID模型实证检验了CETP对绿色发展的直接效应、间接效应和空间溢出效应。研究发现:(1)CETP能显著促进绿色发展,且通过了安慰剂检验和稳健性检验;(2)CETP产生的创新效应对绿色发展有推动作用,但产业结构效应不显著;(3)CETP对周边试点城市产生了显著负向的溢出效应,但对非试点城市的生态效率无明显影响。最后,结合以上研究结论,提出了政策建议。

Moderating effect of corporate financialization on the impact of climate policy on corporate green innovation:Evidence from China

With intensifying global climate change,humanity is confronted with unparalleled environmental challenges and risks.This study employs the staggered difference-in-difference model to examine the relationship between climate policy and green innovation in the corporate financialization context.Using Chinese-listed company data from 2008 to 2020,our analysis reveals a favorable correlation between China’s carbon emission trading policy(CCTP)and advancements in green innovation.Furthermore,we find that the level of corporate financialization moderates this correlation,diminishing the driving effect of CCTP on green innovation.Additionally,results of heterogeneity analysis show that this moderating consequence is more evident in non-state owned and low-digitization enterprises compared with state-owned and high-digitization ones.Our findings contribute to the existing literature by clarifying the interaction between CCTP,green innovation,and corporate financialization.Our research provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to strengthen climate policies and encourages green innovation in different types of businesses.

我国碳排放权交易机制试点地区的ETS管理效率评价

以我国7个碳排放权交易机制试点地区的碳交易体系(ETS)和19个地区模拟ETS的设计方案、调研数据为基础,采用C2GS2模型作为基本工具构建数据包络分析模型(DEA)对碳交易机制的管理效率进行评价.结果显示,在7个试点地区中,北京、广东、深圳和重庆ETS机制的管理效率为DEA有效;上海和天津ETS处于规模递增阶段,湖北处于规模递减阶段,通过其在有效生产前沿面上的"投影"提出调整方案.建议:ETS覆盖的碳排放量低于地区总排放量的50%;下调中国核证自愿减排量(CCER)的碳抵消比例;紧紧围绕机制所覆盖的企业特征,进行投入要素规模设计;惩罚机制必不可少,但惩罚力度需根据本地区ETS投入要素特点进行设计;对ETS的碳排放上限(减排率)不宜设计过紧,否则可能对地区经济可持续发展能力造成损害.

基于ZSG-DEA模型下的中国碳市场初始配额研究及区域政策分析

基于对碳排放总量控制下省域间碳排放配额进行科学分配及区域政策分析的目的,利用我国各省市2003—2013年的相关数据,分别以二氧化碳排放量、人口、GDP及能源消耗量作为投入和产出变量,以总量固定为约束寻求最优综合效率的分配模型ZSG-DEA(零和博弈DEA)作为分配方法对全国各省份进行了碳排放权的初始分配,运算结果使得每个省市的分配额都处于效率最优的状态。将此分配结果结合我国现行七个碳交易试点的实际运行情况进行分析,得出结论:科学的初始配额分配方案和监管层面的严格把控会有利于整个碳市场的后续运行,并结合该结论针对我国即将成立的全国统一碳市场提出了相关政策建议。

Impacts of inter-sectoral trade on carbon emissions --a case of China in 2007

With the increase in international trade, more attention has been given to quantifying the impacts of international trade on energy use and carbon emissions. Input-output analysis is a suitable tool for assessing resources or pollutants embodied in trade and it has become a critical tool for performing such analysis. This study estimated the national and sectoral carbon emissions embodied in Chinese international trade using the latest available China input-output table of 2007. The results showed that a significant exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions existed in China＇s trade. Over 1/3 of the emissions in Chinese domestic production processes were generated for exports in 2007. The net balance of emissions embodied in exports and imports accounted for nearly 30% of China＇s domestic emissions, which means that any policy made to increase the exports would result in a significant growth of China＇s domestic emissions. Since over half of China＇s export trade is processing trade, the re-exported emissions could not be overlooked; otherwise, it would hard to capture the actual emissions generated abroad to obtain China＇s domestic consumption. The enlargement of export scale is a primary driven factor to the rapid growth of China＇s exported emissions. It is necessary for China to adjust its economic and industrial structure to reduce the dependence of economic growth on the export trade. However, when adjusting industry structures or making policies on carbon emission reduction, it will be more reasonable to consider the relationship between production and consumption, rather than just focus on the emission values of sectors＇ direct production, as a large part of carbon emissions emitted by the principal direct polluters were generated to obtain the products which were required by other sectors.

中国碳市场建设成效与展望(2024)

碳交易通过显性碳定价原则,将排放的负外部效应内部成本化,为处理经济发展与减排关系提供了一种解决方案。截至2023年,全球共28个碳交易体系投入运行,覆盖的温室气体排放量超过全球排放总量的17%,实施区域从发达国家逐步拓展至发展中国家,从欧洲、北美等地逐步拓展至拉美、东亚等地,更多的区域选择将碳市场减排目标与宏观减排目标绑定,并通过不断优化制度提高市场有效性,碳市场影响力逐步提高。2023年中国全国碳市场核算、核查、配额分配、数据管理、自愿减排等制度方法取得重要突破,全年配额成交2.12亿吨,是2022年的4.2倍,成交均价68.15元/吨,较2022年上涨23.24%,较第一个履约周期上涨59.04%。经过两个履约周期的建设,全国碳市场已形成要素完整的全流程制度框架,责任主体分工明确,支撑平台安全运转,碳排放数据质量大幅提高,碳价格发现机制初步形成,碳减排激励约束效果初显,推动碳市场成为中国实现“双碳”战略目标的重要政策工具。下一步全国碳市场将扩大行业覆盖范围,梯次纳入水泥、民航、电解铝、钢铁等行业;优化配额分配方法,适时引入有偿分配机制;调整履约机制,明确结余配额结转规定;出台多项中国核证自愿减排方法学,完善强制减排与自愿减排市场的衔接;加快推进与国际碳市场的连接,促进技术、方法、标准、数据互认互通,协助积极应对欧盟碳边境调节机制。

试点碳排放权交易市场对中国工业低碳转型的作用机制研究

本文通过构建理论模型,探讨试点碳排放权交易市场影响中国工业低碳转型的作用机制,并从七个试点省份出发,选取2006—2021年的省级面板数据,运用多期双重差分法对试点碳排放权交易市场政策的环境经济效应进行分析。研究结果显示,试点碳排放权交易市场能够有效降低碳排放强度和提升工业低碳全要素生产率,从而促进中国工业的低碳转型。机制检验结果表明,试点碳排放权交易市场主要通过成本约束和结构升级途径促进工业低碳转型,而技术进步途径的作用尚未实质性显现。异质性分析结果表明,在经济发展水平和研发水平更高的地区,碳排放权交易政策对碳排放强度的降低和生产率的提升效果更加明显;而在外商投资水平更高的地区,碳排放权交易政策对低碳全要素生产率的提升效果更加明显。

碳排放权交易试点对城市工业低碳转型的影响

文章基于2006—2020年中国254个城市面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型和双重机器学习模型评估碳排放权交易试点对城市工业低碳转型的影响机制。研究发现:碳排放权交易试点能够促进城市工业低碳转型,但是辐射范围存在距离衰减效应;异质性研究显示,初始排放配额采用无偿分配的试点城市拥有更好的转型效果,北京和上海碳试点具有积极辐射作用,而广东、深圳和重庆碳试点则呈现消极辐射影响;空间检验结果显示,碳排放权交易试点对其他地区工业低碳转型会产生消极的空间溢出效应;机制研究结果显示,碳排放权交易试点的运行通过拓宽碳交易覆盖面影响工业低碳转型效果,但碳交易频率的增加并不会直接影响工业低碳转型的发展。

碳排放权交易试点政策与绿色高质量发展

基于2008—2020年省级面板数据,通过熵值法构建出绿色高质量发展指标体系;使用双重差分模型将碳排放权交易政策的推行视作准自然的实验,研究分析该政策对我国绿色高质量发展产生的政策效应。研究结论如下:该试点政策的推行对绿色高质量发展具有正向的促进作用;并通过助推产业结构的优化升级,进而实现绿色高质量发展;研究表明在该项政策推动绿色高质量发展的过程中,工业化程度、碳排放水平越高的省份,碳排放权交易试点政策对绿色高质量发展的影响更显著。这一研究结论既是对助推绿色高质量发展的重要实证支撑,也是对推动我国全国碳市场建设的重要决策支持。

碳排放权交易试点政策对新能源企业创新的激励效应——基于创新投入的证据

碳排放权交易试点政策的目标是控制温室气体排放,而新能源企业是发展清洁能源的重要主体,那么该试点政策能否激励新能源企业增加创新投入?既有研究尚未对此做出探讨。鉴于此,本文采用2009~2019年沪深A股新能源企业和其同行业传统企业数据,用三重差分模型考察碳排放权交易试点政策对新能源企业创新投入的影响。研究发现,碳排放权交易试点政策能够促进新能源企业增加创新投入。作用机制分析表明,该试点政策通过从生产端提高企业的减排和创新收益,以及从需求端扩大新能源产品的市场需求,激励新能源企业增加创新投入。进一步分析表明,碳排放权交易试点政策促进新能源企业增加高质量的创新产出。异质性分析表明,在知识产权保护程度高的地区、非管制行业及采用配额有偿分配机制设计的碳排放权交易市场,碳排放权交易试点政策对新能源企业的创新激励效应更显著。研究结论不仅丰富了碳排放权交易试点政策与企业创新的研究,也对建设全国碳排放权交易市场具有启示意义。

低碳城市建设、环境审计与企业碳排放--基于低碳城市试点政策的准自然实验

推动低碳城市建设是实现碳达峰碳中和、迈向高质量发展的重要举措。基于2008—2021年深沪两市A股工业企业的年度数据,将三次低碳城市试点视为准自然实验,采用多期双重差分模型、递归式中介效应模型等实证考察了低碳城市试点的碳减排机理及环境审计在此过程中的交互关系。检验结果表明:(1)低碳城市试点显著降低了试点城市企业的碳排放量,且该效应在高碳行业企业、工业发展水平较高地区企业及媒体关注度较高企业中表现更为突出;(2)低碳城市试点与环境审计在促进企业减少碳排放方面存在互补关系;(3)机制检验表明,技术创新在低碳城市试点促进企业减碳方面起到部分中介作用。