The China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System（CIDARS） was successfully implemented and became operational nationwide in 2008. The CIDARS plays an important role in and has been integrated into the...The China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System（CIDARS） was successfully implemented and became operational nationwide in 2008. The CIDARS plays an important role in and has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the Center for Disease Control（CDC） at all levels in China. In the CIDARS, thresholds are determined using the ？Mean＋2SD？ in the early stage which have limitations. This study compared the performance of optimized thresholds defined using the ？Mean ＋2SD？ method to the performance of 5 novel algorithms to select optimal ？Outbreak Gold Standard（OGS）？ and corresponding thresholds for outbreak detection. Data for infectious disease were organized by calendar week and year. The ？Mean＋2 SD？, C1, C2, moving average（MA）, seasonal model（SM）, and cumulative sum（CUSUM） algorithms were applied. Outbreak signals for the predicted value（Px） were calculated using a percentile-based moving window. When the outbreak signals generated by an algorithm were in line with a Px generated outbreak signal for each week, this Px was then defined as the optimized threshold for that algorithm. In this study, six infectious diseases were selected and classified into TYPE A（chickenpox and mumps）, TYPE B（influenza and rubella） and TYPE C [hand foot and mouth disease（HFMD） and scarlet fever]. Optimized thresholds for chickenpox（P_（55））, mumps（P_（50））, influenza（P_（40）, P_（55）, and P_（75））, rubella（P_（45） and P_（75））, HFMD（P_（65） and P_（70））, and scarlet fever（P_（75） and P_（80）） were identified. The C1, C2, CUSUM, SM, and MA algorithms were appropriate for TYPE A. All 6 algorithms were appropriate for TYPE B. C1 and CUSUM algorithms were appropriate for TYPE C. It is critical to incorporate more flexible algorithms as OGS into the CIDRAS and to identify the proper OGS and corresponding recommended optimized threshold by different infectious disease types.展开更多
The peer-reviewed journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty provides a new platform to engage with,and disseminate in an open-access format,science outside traditional disciplinary boundaries.The current piece reviews a ...The peer-reviewed journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty provides a new platform to engage with,and disseminate in an open-access format,science outside traditional disciplinary boundaries.The current piece reviews a thematic series on surveillance-response systems for elimination of tropical diseases.Overall,22 contributions covering a broad array of diseases are featured–i.e.clonorchiasis,dengue,hepatitis,human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS),H7N9 avian influenza,lymphatic filariasis,malaria,Middle East respiratory syndrome(MERS),rabies,schistosomiasis and tuberculosis(TB).There are five scoping reviews,a commentary,a letter to the editor,an opinion piece and an editorial pertaining to the theme“Elimination of tropical disease through surveillance and response”.The remaining 13 articles are original contributions mainly covering(i)drug resistance;(ii)innovation and validation in the field of mathematical modelling;(iii)elimination of infectious diseases;and(iv)social media reports on disease outbreak notifications released by national health authorities.Analysis of the authors’affiliations reveals that scientists from the People’s Republic of China(P.R.China)are prominently represented.Possible explanations include the fact that the 2012 and 2014 international conferences pertaining to surveillance-response mechanisms were both hosted by the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases(NIPD)in Shanghai,coupled with P.R.China’s growing importance with regard to the control of infectious diseases.Within 4 to 22 months of publication,three of the 22 contributions were viewed more than 10000 times each.With sustained efforts focusing on relevant and strategic information towards control and elimination of infectious diseases,Infectious Diseases of Poverty has become a leading journal in the field of surveillance and response systems in infectious diseases and beyond.展开更多
基金supported by the Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety of the Ministry of Education,Fudan University,China(No.GW2015-1)
文摘The China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System（CIDARS） was successfully implemented and became operational nationwide in 2008. The CIDARS plays an important role in and has been integrated into the routine outbreak monitoring efforts of the Center for Disease Control（CDC） at all levels in China. In the CIDARS, thresholds are determined using the ？Mean＋2SD？ in the early stage which have limitations. This study compared the performance of optimized thresholds defined using the ？Mean ＋2SD？ method to the performance of 5 novel algorithms to select optimal ？Outbreak Gold Standard（OGS）？ and corresponding thresholds for outbreak detection. Data for infectious disease were organized by calendar week and year. The ？Mean＋2 SD？, C1, C2, moving average（MA）, seasonal model（SM）, and cumulative sum（CUSUM） algorithms were applied. Outbreak signals for the predicted value（Px） were calculated using a percentile-based moving window. When the outbreak signals generated by an algorithm were in line with a Px generated outbreak signal for each week, this Px was then defined as the optimized threshold for that algorithm. In this study, six infectious diseases were selected and classified into TYPE A（chickenpox and mumps）, TYPE B（influenza and rubella） and TYPE C [hand foot and mouth disease（HFMD） and scarlet fever]. Optimized thresholds for chickenpox（P_（55））, mumps（P_（50））, influenza（P_（40）, P_（55）, and P_（75））, rubella（P_（45） and P_（75））, HFMD（P_（65） and P_（70））, and scarlet fever（P_（75） and P_（80）） were identified. The C1, C2, CUSUM, SM, and MA algorithms were appropriate for TYPE A. All 6 algorithms were appropriate for TYPE B. C1 and CUSUM algorithms were appropriate for TYPE C. It is critical to incorporate more flexible algorithms as OGS into the CIDRAS and to identify the proper OGS and corresponding recommended optimized threshold by different infectious disease types.
基金supported by the National S&T Major Program(grant no.2012ZX10004220)the fourth round of Three-year Public Health Action Plan of Shanghai(2015-2017,No.GWIV-29).
文摘The peer-reviewed journal Infectious Diseases of Poverty provides a new platform to engage with,and disseminate in an open-access format,science outside traditional disciplinary boundaries.The current piece reviews a thematic series on surveillance-response systems for elimination of tropical diseases.Overall,22 contributions covering a broad array of diseases are featured–i.e.clonorchiasis,dengue,hepatitis,human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immune deficiency syndrome(HIV/AIDS),H7N9 avian influenza,lymphatic filariasis,malaria,Middle East respiratory syndrome(MERS),rabies,schistosomiasis and tuberculosis(TB).There are five scoping reviews,a commentary,a letter to the editor,an opinion piece and an editorial pertaining to the theme“Elimination of tropical disease through surveillance and response”.The remaining 13 articles are original contributions mainly covering(i)drug resistance;(ii)innovation and validation in the field of mathematical modelling;(iii)elimination of infectious diseases;and(iv)social media reports on disease outbreak notifications released by national health authorities.Analysis of the authors’affiliations reveals that scientists from the People’s Republic of China(P.R.China)are prominently represented.Possible explanations include the fact that the 2012 and 2014 international conferences pertaining to surveillance-response mechanisms were both hosted by the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases(NIPD)in Shanghai,coupled with P.R.China’s growing importance with regard to the control of infectious diseases.Within 4 to 22 months of publication,three of the 22 contributions were viewed more than 10000 times each.With sustained efforts focusing on relevant and strategic information towards control and elimination of infectious diseases,Infectious Diseases of Poverty has become a leading journal in the field of surveillance and response systems in infectious diseases and beyond.
