A time-space network-based model for transportation service optimization of China Railway Express

This paper describes the development and optimization plans for the China Railway Express(CR Express).As a new type of international land transport organization,CR Express has emerged with the continuous expansion of China toward European investment and trade,and in particular,has expanded with the continuous progress of the One Belt and One Road(OBOR)initiative.In addition to improving the service quality of CR Express,the operating costs must be reduced for developing“smart railways”that serve“smart cities”.We propose a dualobjective-based function mathematical optimization model;the satisfaction of the cargo owner is considered,and the timeliness,transportation capacity,and goods category constraints of CR Express transportation are designed.Moreover,we present the normalized equivalent method of the two-objective function of the model.Finally,a case study is conducted against the background of certain trains in the western corridor of CR Express to validate the effectiveness of the model and research methods proposed in this study.

Does the China Railway Express Promote Equitable Regional Development?Evidence from Manufacturing Relocation

The China Railway Express(CRE)has improved regional economic integration with external markets and has reshaped regional development by encouraging the relocation of manufacturing activities("manufacturing transfer").We analyzed data from 284 prefecture-level cities in China to evaluate the impact of the CRE on regional manufacturing relocation,using a staggered difference-in-diferences model with entropy balancing.We found that the launch of the CRE significantly stimulated the relocation of manufacturing industries to node cities-key hubs for transportation and logistics within the CRE network-especially in the central,western,and northeastern regions.Specifically,the CRE significantly increased manufacturing dynamism,firm profitability,openness,and foreign investment in node cities,which attracted more manufacturing industries to relocate in this area.Higher levels of infrastructure development moderated the CRE's effect.Further analysis showed that significant moderating effects of infrastructure development occurred only in the western region.Overall,our conclusions provide useful insights into how to promote equitable regional development through manufacturing development in China.

中欧班列主通道白俄罗斯节点运输潜力分析及对策建议

为推进中欧班列高质量发展,解决既有研究对于中欧铁路网中白俄罗斯节点运输特征论证不充分的问题,全面分析白俄罗斯这一中欧铁路主通道节点的发展瓶颈和潜力。首先,基于宏观统计数据,采用统计分析方法、数据包络分析方法和参数预测模型,从货运量、货运车辆拥有量、机车拥有量、线路运营里程和通过能力等发展指标入手,分析白俄罗斯铁路运输在货运组织、运力资源配置等方面的时序特征和发展趋势。之后,在供给侧,从投入和产出两个维度划分宏观运营指标,并利用数据包络分析法,定量分析白俄罗斯铁路的投入冗余和产出不足情况,评估该节点的运输潜力;在需求侧,结合中欧班列既有开行数据、短期预测结果以及白俄罗斯铁路实际生产现状,分析未来可能出现运能短板的瓶颈区段。基于此,从中欧班列开行视角提出白俄罗斯铁路运营改进建议。最后,基于对白俄罗斯铁路运营现状和未来发展潜力的分析,提出我国应扩大面向白俄罗斯铁路建设投资、强化货运流程环节高效对接和共同制定统一的运输标准和程序等发展对策,为我国中欧班列开行提供保障,促进中国与欧洲国家的交流和共同发展。

Can Trade Facilitation Prevent the Formation of Zombie Firms?Evidence from the China Railway Express

Using data on firms listed on Chinese A-share markets from 2009 to 2017,this paperapplies the difference-in-difference model to test the effect of trade facilitation onpreventing the formation of zombie firms.We find that the China Railway Express(CRE)significantly prevented the formation of such firms.Mechanism tests show:(i)the CRE has accelerated the speed of sales,which increased the overseas salesrevenue of firms;(ii)the economies of scale and the capital accumulation effectcaused by the CRE can help increase firms'solvency and development ability.Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the effect of the CRE on preventing theformation of zombie firms is mainly reflected in non-state-owned firms,firms inhighly competitive industries,and firms in the eastern region of China.We suggestthat China should continue to promote trade facilitation by expanding the CRE andstrengthening the market's dominant role in preventing the formation of zombie firms.Disadvantaged firms should seize the development opportunities brought by the CRE.

Bayesian network-based risk evaluation model for the operational requirements of the China Railway Express under the Belt and Road initiative

The operation of the China Railway Express features numerous links across several regions and countries. Effectively controlling therisks involved in the operation of the China Railway Express is crucial for ensuring safety and efficiency and promoting the sustainabledevelopment of the China Railway Express. The Bayesian network-based risk-management model was built corresponding to theactual operation of the China Railway Express;the model used an advanced risk-management theory. The sensitivity analysis of riskfactors and Bayesian network inference were realized using the expectation-maximization and clique-tree propagation algorithms.Using the risk-checklistmethod, 17 risk-related factors were analysed on 17 nodes of the Bayesian network fromthree perspectives—safety, efficiency and effectiveness—based on expert opinions and the actual operating conditions of the China Railway Express.Data from a sensitivity analysis and evidence inference of the Bayesian network model indicated that the sensitivity coefficients ofnodes N01, N04, N07, N08 and N17 of the network were high. Moreover, the risk-occurrence probabilities for nodes N01, N04, N06,N07 and N09 were higher in the case of reverse inference. Our results revealed the crucial factors influencing the risk. The identifiedrisk factors included the stability of the political environment in countries along the route, conditions of station infrastructures andthe complexity of the process of changing rails and reloading. Further, risk-management suggestions were provided. By establishinga sound risk-management framework, reliable assessment and management could be realized in accordance with changes in theoperating conditions of the China Railway Express.

中欧班列发展现状与对策分析

伴随“一带一路”建设从快速扩张的“大写意”阶段过渡到优化发展的“工笔画”新时代,中欧班列的发展也进入转折期。为提高中欧班列核心竞争力,推进中欧班列更高质量、更好效益、更可持续健康发展,本文研究了中欧班列运行情况、特色线路、发展优势,分析了中欧班列市场机制、运营服务模式和基础设施等方面的问题,并从加强政府顶层设计、完善补贴方式、发挥中国国家铁路集团有限公司协调组织功能、推进基础设施建设、探索运输新方式、推进信息化建设等方面为中欧班列可持续健康发展提供决策参考。

“一带一路”机遇下中外铁路运输公司的合作博弈论策略

通过白俄哈铁路联盟的背景介绍和中欧铁路的发展现状,分析亚欧大陆的物流行业之间激烈竞争的现状,引入豪泰林价格竞争模型分析并根据完全信息静态博弈纳什均衡理论,发现博弈双方存在着价格战的可能性。为了避免价格战,双方可以尽力降低运营成本和销售成本,加大各地分社的投入和建设,根据自己的本地优势开发新的站点,增加回程货物运输量,统一行业谈判力量等。建议国内外铁路运营公司和物流运输公司明确能够增强自身的竞争博弈条件,力争取得市场良性化发展的双赢的博弈结果而不是简单的零和博弈。

中欧班列开通对中国城市贸易开放度的影响——基于“一带一路”建设的视角

中欧班列开通是深化"一带一路"建设的标志性成果,也是中国发展全面对外开放的重要举措.文章理论分析了中欧班列开通影响城市贸易开放度的内在机理,并基于中国2003~2016年286个地级市层面数据,采用双重差分方法评估中欧班列开通对城市贸易开放度的影响以及空间异质性特征.结果显示,中欧班列的开通显著提升了城市贸易开放度,且影响程度和城市班列开通数量呈直接正相关关系.进一步研究发现,中欧班列对城市贸易开放度的影响具有明显的空间异质性,可以显著提升西部地区城市和大城市贸易开放度,而对东、中部城市和中小城市的影响并不显著.中欧班列在扩大城市贸易开放度方面的积极作用,为各城市进一步规范中欧班列发展,推动中国更高层次开放型经济的发展提供了支持.

Connecting the Belt and Road through sea-rail collaboration

As part of China's "the Belt and Road"strategy, China Railway Express provides alternative shipping routes and transportation modes from Asia to Europe and creates new opportunities for intermodal transportation in the shipping industry. A time–distancebased cost(time cost) function was proposed to compare China Railway Express with traditional transportation modes. Time cost was related to different types of cargoes,which exhibit distinct sensitivity to time. Using the proposed cost function as basis, we identified the cost indifference area where total costs are equal. Further analysis was performed for selecting the transportation mode and supply area for a specific cargo. This study provides various parties, such as business owners, the government, and the shipping industry, with many valuable insights.

江苏省中欧班列发展现状及对策建议

在“一带一路”国家战略背景下,江苏省中欧班列得到了长足的发展。本文总结了江苏省中欧班列特色线路、运行情况、经营模式等,深入剖析存在的问题,结合发展形势,从强化江苏省中欧班列统筹建设、推动集约化发展等方面提出对策建议。