An Inquiry into the Approach to Asian Regional Trade Integration Under the Belt and Road Initiative——The Case of the Alignment of a China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Area

It has been five years since the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) was first introduced. Though there has been a growing body of literature on regional cooperation between covered countries, Japan and South Korea have been barely discussed. This paper starts with the consensus-based mechanism of a China-Japan-South Korea Free Trade Area (FTA) to probe the approach of its alignment with the BRI in terms of the sequence of “master plans,”“viability of cooperation,” and “embedding of rules.” This inquiry found that the three countries have a shared interest in cooperation in Central Asia to which China prefers a pragmatic approach, while Japan and South Korea an approach combining idealism with pragmatism. Given the huge potential of cooperation between the trio, it is suggested that a “Central Asia chapter” be incorporated in the negotiation framework of this trilateral FTA, and that the design feature three aspects;fundamental principles, specific rules, and an executive body with a view to functionally contributing to regional trade integration in Asia. This approach may also be applied to the alignment of other Asian areas with the BRI.

Collective Action and Networks in Civil Society： The Case of South Korea＇s Protest Movement

The Free Trade Agreement （FTA） was nearly ratified by United States and South Korea countries＇ administrations and can be described as a network of transnational trade. However, the candlelight protests have been held that network was set between the individuals of the South Korean society as a reaction against the FTA and Korean government, The network was the results of a new method of amassing power which comparing past protest in South Korea, and it was able to deal a severe blow to the ongoing FTA negotiations. In this paper, we will be using the actor-network theory （ANT） set forth by Law （1992） and Latour （2005） to explain Korean candlelight protest situations. A key claim is that ANT must range beyond studies of science and technology to other ＂social＂ subjects because it raises much broader questions about the construction of the social and nature. Therefore, this paper focused more on how the public opinion was aggregate in the social process, rather than the result. And we can see that the role of non-human actors is highly important. Through this attempt the citizen can reveal undisclosed information and get power to have communication with the government.

China's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN,Japan and Korea:A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia ＇s recovery from the recent global finaneial and economic crisis highlights China ＇s position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements （FTAs） with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast-growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China＇s FTAs with East Asian major economies： China-ASEAN, China-Japan, China-Korea and ASEAN＋ 3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China ＂s output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN＋ 3. Because forming a region-wide FTA, such as the ASEAN＋ 3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China shouM continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a mediumterm and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a regionwide FTA.

Trade in goods among China,Japan,and South Korea and the road to a free trade area

Trade in goods is of great importance to Northeast Asia,a region with highly developed manufacturing industries.Trade interdependency among China,Japan,and South Korea(CJK)is an important incentive and basis for the development of CJK free trade area(FTA)and cross-border investment.From 1991 to 2011,the value of bilateral trade as a share of total trade among China,Japan,and South Korea underwent significant changes.China’s imports increased but exports decreased,Japan’s imports and exports both increased,and South Korea’s exports increased but imports decreased.These developments can help us understand the three countries’willingness of to continue the FTA negotiation process,in which commitment,environment,and demand uncertainty constitute disruptive factors in the CJKFTA negotiation process.The CJKFTA can be realized directly or indirectly,depending on the will of China,Japan,and South Korea.

RCEP背景下中日韩三国生产性服务贸易国际竞争力分析

中日韩三国是RCEP框架内重要经济体,都是东亚制造业大国,生产性服务业发展对结构优化升级具有重要价值。通过2010—2022年间三国的生产性服务贸易国际竞争力的对比分析发现:相对日韩而言,中国生产性服务贸易规模巨大、增长速度快,2020年以来已实现顺差且规模不断增加;电信服务竞争力显著提升,加工服务、其他商业服务具有显性比较优势,运输服务世界占比上升。为进一步培育生产性服务业国际竞争的新优势,促进生产性服务业创新发展,中国在不断扩大高水平制度性对外开放的同时,可通过发展集群式价值网络促进生产性服务业与制造业深度融合,发挥数字经济活力与潜力,推进RCEP服务贸易国际合作,提升生产性服务贸易规模和发展水平,以满足现代产业体系建设的更高需求。

RCEP协定下中日韩贸易竞争性与互补性分析

本文采用RCA、GL、ES和TI指数对比分析了RCEP三个工业成员国中日韩的贸易竞争性和互补性。分析结果表明,中日韩三国之间的贸易关系日益紧密,但三国之间的贸易互补性逐渐走弱、竞争性日益增强。本文提出在RCEP框架下进一步发展中日韩三国经贸关系的建议。

RCEP背景下构建面向未来的新型中韩双边经贸关系研究

文章在对中韩双边经贸合作的发展历史与现状进行分析的基础上,针对近年来中韩贸易结构性变化产生、发展的深层次原因进行了系统深入研究,主要内容包括:从产品结构、贸易依存度、贸易竞争性和贸易新动力四个维度构建了中韩双边贸易合作发展情况的分析框架,特别是RCEP的生效对上述四个方面贸易因素的影响路径以及中韩双边贸易发展趋势的分析。研究发现:中韩贸易逆转的主要原因是中韩贸易结构趋同,双边贸易的竞争性不断增强,互补性逐渐减弱。依据研究结论,文章进一步分析了RCEP协定对中韩经贸合作发展带来的新机遇和新挑战,提出了在新的国际政治经济形势下,构建面向未来的新型中韩经贸关系的对策建议。

《中欧全面投资协定》软性劳工条款的风险及应对——以欧韩FTA争端案为视角

从《欧韩自由贸易协定》到《中欧全面投资协定》,欧盟将劳工条款纳入可持续发展章节,以相对软性机制促进缔约国对劳工标准的遵守,但该模式一直被批评实效甚微。为此,欧盟意欲加强条款的执行力度,发起了欧韩劳工条款争端案,并首次启动专家组程序。该案明确了国际劳工组织核心公约争议可纳入专家组受案范围,强化了核心劳工标准的义务性约束,并推动韩国修改国内立法和批准国际劳工组织相关核心公约。为了应对《中欧全面投资协定》生效后的劳工条款争端风险,中国应当加快修改立法和实践中与国际劳工组织核心公约明显不符之处,推动相关核心公约的批准进程,加大对国际劳工法律人才的选拔与培养,并重视发挥“法庭之友”的作用。

自由贸易协定纵向深化对中国出口商品结构的影响——以CAFTA升级为准自然实验

自由贸易协定纵向深化是中国推进自由贸易区提升战略的重要内容,厘清其对出口商品结构优化的影响对实现出口贸易高质量发展具有重要意义。基于中国-东盟自由贸易区升级视角,运用双重差分法系统研究了自由贸易协定纵向深化对中国出口商品结构的影响。结果显示,自由贸易协定纵向深化对中国出口商品结构优化具有显著正向作用,这种正向效应在基础制造业中更凸显;自由贸易协定纵向深化通过价值链整合效应、外商投资激励效应和生产效率促进效应等途径显著促进了出口商品结构优化。基于此,提出了持续推进FTA纵向深化、扩大面向全球的高标准自由贸易区网络,畅通FTA纵向深化促进出口商品结构优化的作用渠道,推动装备制造业深度融入自由贸易区市场等对策建议。

中日韩与东盟在数字经济领域的竞合——以数字贸易为例

通过熵权法构建2013—2021年中日韩与东盟十国的数字贸易发展指标,考察中日韩与东盟国家间的数字贸易发展水平,发现在东盟国家中,新加坡与中日韩之间的数字贸易合作发展指数最高。从中日韩3个国家对比的角度观察,日本与韩国领先于中国的数字贸易综合发展水平。在时间维度方面,进入新时期的中国数字贸易发展增长率水平超越日韩,在3个国家中具备最高的发展潜能。在全球数字贸易高速发展背景下,研究区域间数字产业的竞争与合作,将为中国了解中日韩数字贸易发展的国际差距、提升中国数字贸易发展国际竞争力提供参考思路。

技术性贸易壁垒背后的国家利益——中韩关系视角下的实证分析

技术性贸易壁垒(TBT)是国际贸易中各国频繁遭遇的问题。本文利用中韩两国2009—2018年贸易数据,探讨遭遇TBT是否受到国家关系的影响。研究发现,中韩关系的质量与韩国对中国发起的TBT数量呈现显著的负相关。进一步引入EPU作为调节变量后,发现EPU对于主效应起到调节作用。通过异质性分析,主效应在不同行业显著性存在差异。植物来源类货物和食品类货物呈现显著,动物来源类等货物则不显著。

Possible Chinese Strategic Responses to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership （TPP） Agreement have concluded, but the TPP still must be ratified by each of the 12 member countries. China is the world＇s second largest economy and yet it has not joined the TPP. This has provoked much debate in China as to the best strategic approach to the TPP This paper analyzes China＇s possible strategy for the TPP agreement. We make three key points. First, the security of market access should be China＇s main concern in any free-trade agreement negotiations, regrettably, it is not included in TPP. The second point is that the present TPP agreement is somewhat diminished from its ambitious original claims. We suggest four strategies for China. The first is to promote the development of China＇s remaining regional and bilateral free trade agreements （FTAs）. The second is to negotiate a bilateral FTA with the United States. The third is to promote deep domestic reforms via enlarged TPP coverage. The last is negotiating entrance to the entering do not worsen. TPP as soon as possible so that terms of

自由贸易协定对中国外贸高质量发展的影响

当前世界贸易组织发展停滞,自由贸易协定成为促进贸易发展的重要平台。选取2003—2020年中国与156个贸易伙伴的面板数据,利用熵值法计算中国外贸高质量发展综合指数建立计量模型,探讨FTA对我国外贸高质量发展的影响。结果表明:FTA显著促进我国外贸高质量发展,且标准越高的FTA促进作用越大;与仅考虑条款覆盖范围的FTA相比,考虑条款法律可执行性,FTA的促进作用更明显;“WTO+”和“WTO-X”条款对我国外贸高质量发展都有显著的促进作用,且“WTO-X”条款的作用相对更大;FTA具体条款对我国外贸高质量发展的影响各不相同;无论我国与发达国家还是发展中国家签署FTA,均能显著促进我国外贸高质量发展。

中日韩区域经济合作的影响效应分析——基于GTAP模型的数值模拟

中日韩作为东亚地区经济贸易中最活跃的三个经济体,合作潜力巨大。本文运用GTAP模型,分析关税调整和贸易便利化水平提升对中日韩各国经济的影响。研究发现:在单一削减关税的情形下,中国GDP与社会福利效用受到负面影响,中国和韩国多数产业产出呈现增长态势,而日本多个部门产出受到负面冲击;在单一提升贸易便利化水平或两项贸易政策叠加的情形下,区域经济合作推动了三国经济的增长,扩大了区域内贸易规模,改善了三国贸易条件。因此,在区域经济合作中,应分阶段推进中日韩自贸区谈判进程,加快中国自身产业结构的优化与升级,努力争取日韩对中国农产品及其加工品的关税减让。

美韩数字文化贸易发展对中国的启示

数字全球化促进了文化贸易与数字化技术的融合,数字文化贸易不仅成为了全球贸易增长的新动力,而且是一个国家文化软实力的体现。本文从数字文化贸易发展较成功的美、韩两国着手,分析两者成功的经验,期望从话语权、政策、人才、技术、营销等方面为起步较晚的中国提供参考,突破目前中国数字文化贸易发展遇到的困境,推进中国数字文化贸易高质量发展,增强其国际竞争力。

RCEP实施与东盟各国推动对华经贸便利化阶段成效、具体举措与路径优化

近年来,东盟与中国经贸合作水平不断攀升。《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》生效实施以来,东盟对华贸易总量继续快速上升,连续第三年成为中国最大贸易伙伴。同时,东盟各国对华贸易结构不断优化、特色鲜明、各具优势,泛亚铁路网建设也正逐渐推进。东盟各国的经贸便利化措施,带来了实实在在的收益。面对当前中国—东盟经贸合作中一些现实问题和挑战,应加速以制度型开放推进高水平对外开放,加速中国—东盟自由贸易区3.0版提档升级,加速以通关便利化引领中国—东盟贸易合作升级。

海南自由贸易港建设推动南海区域经济合作的策略研究

海南自由贸易港建设是推进高水平对外开放、推动经济全球化的国家战略。在党的二十大精神引领下,文章运用系统分析、政策分析等方法,主要分析了海南自贸港建设推动南海区域经济合作的新机遇、挑战与对策。研究结论表明,党的二十大关于高水平对外开放的方针为海南自贸港建设推动南海区域经济合作提供了新机遇,但自贸港建设与区域合作也面临一系列问题和挑战。对此,文章提出海南自贸港建设要面向东南亚推动以制度型开放为核心的高水平对外开放,依托博鳌亚洲论坛加强区域交流,构建“南海经济合作圈”,以特色产业加强与“一带一路”沿线南海国家和地区的合作,打造海南自贸港—东盟互联互通,推进建设“两个总部基地”。

RCEP框架下中日韩基于ICT产业的数字贸易合作展望

ICT产业是数字经济发展的重要基础和活力源泉,也是国家间数字贸易合作的关键领域。随着RCEP的签署,中日韩有更多机会在“东亚模板”雏形的基础上不断推进数字贸易合作,促进东亚经济一体化的深入发展。文章以ICT产业为锚点,通过计算中日韩的贸易互补指数、贸易结合度指数以及显示性比较优势指数,发现三国在数字贸易领域具备广阔的合作基础和发展前景,应在RCEP框架下不断拓宽中日韩数字贸易的合作路径,共同应对经济全球化逆行带来的贸易合作挑战。

海南与南海周边国家地缘经济联系强度及影响因素

基于修正的引力模型分析1988—2020年海南与南海周边国家地缘经济联系强度时空演变,并借助灰色关联度模型揭示地缘经济联系强度的影响因素。结果表明:①海南与南海周边国家地缘经济联系强度整体呈现曲折上升的特征,不同国家增幅差异极大,并将整个发展阶段划分为缓慢增长期、快速上升期、大幅回落期和急剧反弹期。②海南与南海周边国家地缘经济联系强度的空间格局呈现稳中有变的特征,并存在北高南低的区域格局差异。③外商直接投资、GDP、入境旅游收入、货物出口额、货物进口额是驱动海南与南海周边国家进行经济联系的主导因素。

中国—东盟自贸协定的农产品贸易效应评估分析

加快实施自由贸易区战略,为中国新一轮对外开放的重要内容。中国—东盟自贸协定是中国对外签署的第一个自贸协定,也是东盟作为整体对外商谈的第一个自贸协定,双方在农业领域均做出了较大的开放承诺。本文全面分析了中国—东盟自贸协定各成员农产品降税和协定实施前后农产品贸易的变化情况,通过引力模型定量测度了协定实施对双边农产品贸易的影响。研究结果显示,中国—东盟自贸协定的签署和实施后,农产品关税减让的分阶段实施对促进中国和东盟国家的农产品贸易具有显著的促进作用,且对进口的促进作用大于出口。建议利用自贸区升级和RCEP开放机遇,推进双边农业贸易投资自由化便利化,并持续促进与东盟的农业硬软件互联互通,促进农业双向投资。