The objective of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between China′s trade balance (T) and macroeconomic variables: domestic and foreign output (Y and Y\+* ), real exchange rate (E), domestic...The objective of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between China′s trade balance (T) and macroeconomic variables: domestic and foreign output (Y and Y\+* ), real exchange rate (E), domestic and foreign money supply (M and M\+*). The ADF Unit Root results show that the variables are all integrated of order I (1). The trade balance in China is not cointegrated with a number of variables, including the exchange rate. Absorption, elasticity, and monetary models are compared, and the elastic model performs better. There has been J\| curve in China, and the devaluations have had significant effect on the trade balance.展开更多
Using a computational general equilibrium model, we analyze the impacts of Chinese real exchange rate appreciation on the trade balance of China and the USA and on various industries of both countries, We use several ...Using a computational general equilibrium model, we analyze the impacts of Chinese real exchange rate appreciation on the trade balance of China and the USA and on various industries of both countries, We use several scenarios with 2.1, 6 and 12percent real exchange rate appreciations for our simulation analysis. The results indicate that China＇s exchange rate appreciation might not solve the enlarging US current account deficits. Chinese outputs in both primary and manufacture sectors will increase, whereas the outputs of energy and serviees sectorx will be adversely affected. The price of value-added products declines in light of the renminbi appreciation.展开更多
文摘The objective of this paper is to investigate the dynamic relationship between China′s trade balance (T) and macroeconomic variables: domestic and foreign output (Y and Y\+* ), real exchange rate (E), domestic and foreign money supply (M and M\+*). The ADF Unit Root results show that the variables are all integrated of order I (1). The trade balance in China is not cointegrated with a number of variables, including the exchange rate. Absorption, elasticity, and monetary models are compared, and the elastic model performs better. There has been J\| curve in China, and the devaluations have had significant effect on the trade balance.
文摘Using a computational general equilibrium model, we analyze the impacts of Chinese real exchange rate appreciation on the trade balance of China and the USA and on various industries of both countries, We use several scenarios with 2.1, 6 and 12percent real exchange rate appreciations for our simulation analysis. The results indicate that China＇s exchange rate appreciation might not solve the enlarging US current account deficits. Chinese outputs in both primary and manufacture sectors will increase, whereas the outputs of energy and serviees sectorx will be adversely affected. The price of value-added products declines in light of the renminbi appreciation.
