Understanding the Relationship Between Shrinking Cities and Land Prices:Spatial Pattern,Effectiveness,and Policy Implications

Urban shrinkage has emerged as a widespread phenomenon globally and has a significant impact on land,particularly in terms of land use and price.This study focuses on 2851 county-level cities in China in 2005–2018(excluding Hong Kong,Macao,Taiwan,and‘no data’areas in Qinhai-Tibet Plateau)as the fundamental units of analysis.By employing nighttime light(NTL)data to identify shrinking cities,the propensity score matching(PSM)model was used to quantitatively examine the impact of shrinking cities on land prices,and evaluate the magnitude of this influence.The findings demonstrate the following:1)there were 613 shrinking cities in China,with moderate shrinkage being the most prevalent and severe shrinkage being the least.2)Regional disparities are evident in the spatial distribution of shrinking cities,especially in areas with diverse terrain.3)The spatial pattern of land price exhibits a significant correlated to the economic and administrative levels.4)Shrinking cities significantly negatively impact on the overall land price(ATT=–0.1241,P<0.05).However,the extent of the effect varies significantly among different spatial regions.This study contributes novel insights into the investigation of land prices and shrinking cities,ultimately serving as a foundation for government efforts to promote the sustainable development of urban areas.

Spatiotemporal Differences and Classification Regulation of Urbanization Impact on Agricultural Development in Shrinking Areas:A Case Study of 15 Shrinking Cities in Three Provinces of Northeast China

Studying the impact of urbanization on agricultural development in shrinking areas is important for maintaining food security and promoted agricultural development in China.Based on the measurement results of the shrinking cities in the three provinces of Northeast China,this paper selects 15 shrinking cities as the research object,and constructs a multi-dimensional index system to explore the impact of the urbanization level of the shrinking areas on the agricultural development in the region since 2007–2019,analyzes the influencing factors and their differences by using the geographically-weighted regression model and Geodetector,and proposes a targeted regulation strategy.The results show that:1)overall,there is a negative correlation between the urbanization level and the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces.The urbanization level in these areas has a certain negative impact on the overall level of agricultural development;2)regarding the time dimension,the impact of urbanization level on the agricultural development level in the contracted areas of the three northeastern provinces gradually increases over time;3)regarding the spatial pattern,the overall impact of shrinking urbanization levels in the three provinces of Northeast China on the agricultural development shows a significant distribution pattern of high in the east and low in the west;4)the total population and natural population growth rate at the end of the year were the main factors influencing a certain level of urbanization on agricultural development in the shrinking cities while population density and the urban fixed asset investment rate were the secondary factors;and 5)the main reasons why the level of agricultural development in different cities was affected by the level of urbanization were different.However,they can be categorized into areas of population loss and spatial construction,which can be further divided into area of population loss in the northeast,areas of negative population growth in the west,and areas of urban spatial change in the south.According to the causes of the impact,this paper adopted targeted regulation strategies and formulated relevant policies and solutions that cater to local conditions.

Population Shrinkage in Resource-dependent Cities in China: Processes, Patterns and Drivers

Resource-dependent cities(RCs)are a vulnerable group of urban settlements that often face population shrinkage;however,population changes in RCs in China are not well understood.This study offers new insight into this matter through a robust analysis that features a longer time scale,a larger sample of RCs,and a finer unit of analysis.It finds new evidence that problems of population shrinkage in RCs are more serious than previous literature has suggested.Approximately 30%of the studied units have experienced either long-term or short-term population shrinkage,and many more are experiencing a slowing down of population growth.Problems are especially common among three types of RCs:the resource-depleted RCs,the forestry-based RCs,and RCs in Northeast China.These results underscore transition policy inadequacies in addressing population loss,and call for a more comprehensive and diversified population policy that tackles the multifaceted factors that contribute to population shrinkage,including lack of industrial support,maladjustment to market oriented reformation,poor urban environment and natural population decline.

Conceptualizing and Measuring Economic Resilience of Resource-based Cities： Case Study of Northeast China

This paper develops a conceptual model and an indicator system for measuring economic resilience of resource-based cities based on the theory of evolutionary resilience and the related concepts of persistence, adaptation, and transformation. Nineteen resource-based cities in Northeast China were analyzed using the indicator system. The results showed that Liaoning and Jilin provinces had higher economic resilience than Heilongjiang Province. Panjin, Benxi, and Anshan in Liaoning Province were the top three cities, while Shuangyashan and other coal-based cities in Heilongjiang Province ranked last. Metals-and petroleum-based cities had significantly higher resilience than coal-based cities. The differences in persistence, adaptability, transformation, and resilience among resource-based cities decreased since the introduction of the Northeast Revitalization Strategy in 2003. Forestry-based cities improved the most in terms of resilience, followed by metals-based and multiple-resource cities; however, resilience dropped for coal-based cities, and petroleum-based cities falling the most. The findings illustrate the importance and the way to develop a differentiated approach to improve resilience among resource-based cities.

The distribution and ecological risks of antibiotics in surface water in key cities along the lower reaches of the Yellow River:A case study of Kaifeng City,China

A large number of antibiotics have been discharged into rivers by human activities,posing a threat to aquatic ecosystems.The surface water of the Yellow River Basin also suffers antibiotic pollution,which hinders the improvement in the aquatic ecological environment.This study investigated and analyzed the characteristics and assessed the ecological risks of antibiotic pollution in surface water bodies such as canals,rivers and fish ponds in Kaifeng,Henan Province,which is a key city along the lower reaches of the Yellow River.The test results are as follows.A total of 15 types of antibiotics were detected in the surface water.They had a total antibiotic concentration of 12.2-249.9μg/L,of which tetracyclines(TCs)and quinolones accounted for the highest percentages.Six types of quinolones had detection rates of up to 100%,and doxycycline(DC)and oxytetracycline(OTC)had average concentrations of 29.52μg/L1 and 13.71μg/L,respectively.The major canals with water diverted from the Yellow River had total concentrations of quinolones and TCs of 22.0μg/L and 14.9μg/L,respectively,which were higher than those in previous studies.This phenomenon may be related to the decrease in the water flow of the Yellow River during the dry season and the increase in the antibiotic consumption of residents in the context of the Covid-19 outbreak.The upper reaches of the Huiji River in the Xiangfu District had higher antibiotic content than other districts in Kaifeng.Specifically,TCs accounted for 72.38%-91.84%of all antibiotics,and the DC and OTC concentrations were significantly higher than other antibiotics in the upper reaches.As indicated by the ecological risk assessment results,TCs had the highest ecological risks to green algae.Among them,DC had medium-high risks;TC,OTC,and chlortetracycline(CTC)had medium-high risks;trimethoprim(TMP)and lomefloxacin(LOM)had low risks;other TC antibiotics had no risk.Compared with green algae,most antibiotics showed higher ecological risks to daphnia and lower ecological risks to fish.DC and OTC dominate antibiotic pollutants in the surface water in Kaifeng City,and especially in Xiangfu District,where DC and OTC have medium-high risks.The TCs in the major Yellow River showed medium risks to both green algae and daphnia.It can be speculated that the antibiotic pollution in the Yellow River might pose a certain threat to the ecological security of water in Kaifeng City.

Simulating Mechanism of Interaction Between Ports and Cities Based on System Dynamics: A Case of Dalian, China

Port-city system is a complex and integral system, and it can be simulated by system dynamic method, which is used to be employed to solve nonlinear problems. Based on the causality of the every element in the port-city system, the authors analyzed the feedback relation and logical relation among the system variables and system structure. A system-dynamic flow chart and correlation equations were put forward with VENSIM software, the quantitative relation was described, and the model was debugged. The development trend of the main influence factors in port-city system was simulated. By changing the parameters values of variables in the model, we studied the influence degree of each related factor. It is found that: 1) Foreign trade throughput of port play an important role in the development of export-oriented economy. 2) The development of primary industry and secondary industry affects most of the water transportation demand. With the constant increase of tertiary industry proportion in the industrial structure, the demand of national economy for water transportation decreases gradually. 3) Water transportation presents a kind of oversupply development situation, so port construction should properly slow down. 4) With the development of ports, its direct and indirect contribution to urban economy has been continuously increasing, but contribution rate will be continuously decreasing.

Carbon dioxide emissions from cities in China based on high resolution emission gridded data

Based on the China high resolution emission gridded data(1 km spatial resolution), this article is aimed to create a Chinese city carbon dioxide(CO_2) emission data set using consolidated data sources as well as normalized and standardized data processing methods. Standard methods were used to calculate city CO_2 emissions, including scope 1 and scope 2. Cities with higher CO_2 emissions are mostly in north, northeast, and eastern coastal areas. Cities with lower CO_2 emissions are in the western region. Cites with higher CO_2 emissions are clustered in the Jing-Jin-Ji Region(such as Beijing, Tianjin, and Tangshan), and the Yangtze River Delta region(such as Shanghai and Suzhou).The city per capita CO_2 emission is larger in the north than the south. There are obvious aggregations of cities with high per capita CO_2 emission in the north. Four cities among the top 10 per capita emissions(Erdos, Wuhai, Shizuishan, and Yinchuan) cluster in the main coal production areas of northern China. This indicates the significant impact of coal resources endowment on city industry and CO_2 emissions. The majority(77%) of cities have annual CO_2 emissions below 50 million tons. The mean annual emission, among all cities, is 37 million tons. Emissions from service-based cities, which include the smallest number of cities, are the highest. Industrial cities are the largest category and the emission distribution from these cities is close to the normal distribution. Emissions and degree of dispersion, in the other cities(excluding industrial cities and service-based cities), are in the lowest level. Per capita C02 emissions in these cities are generally below 20 t/person(89%) with a mean value of 11 t/person. The distribution interval of per capita CO_2 emission within industrial cities is the largest among the three city categories. This indicates greater differences among per capita CO_2 emissions of industrial cities. The distribution interval of per capita CO_2 emission of other cities is the lowest, indicating smaller differences of per capita CO_2 emissions among this city category. Three policy suggestions are proposed: first, city CO_2 emission inventory data in China should be increased,especially for prefecture level cities. Second, city responsibility for emission reduction, and partitioning the national goal should be established, using a bottom-up approach based on specific CO_2emission levels and potential for emission reductions in each city. Third, comparative and benchmarking research on city CO_2 emissions should be conducted, and a Top Runner system of city CO_2emission reduction should be established.

Vulnerability and Sustainable Development Mode of Coal Cities in Northeast China

In this study, by carrying on the spot investigation to the seven coal cities in Northeast China and interview-ing with the local authority and the residents, the authors definite the vulnerability that is closed to exposure, sensitiv-ity and resilience, and set up vulnerability model of coal cities in Northeast China. At the same time, the authors broadly illustrate how the components of natural-social-economic system act in the coal area, so as to probe the ways to reduce vulnerability more effectively, such as preferential national policy and so on. Furthermore, the article studies the relationship between vulnerability and sustainable development. Vulnerability is a spatio-temporal function of sus-tainable development. The regional sustainable development refrains the spiral ascending of vulnerability. And the re-gional vulnerability and sustainable development appear in turn. Then the article analyzes the natural vulnerability, so-cial vulnerability and economic vulnerability of coal cities in Northeast China. At last, combing vulnerability model and situation of coal cities in Northeast China, the authors put forward regional technology innovation mode, multi-dimension structure transformation mode, attracting investment mode and recycling economy mode to reduce vulnerability.

The Evolution and Differentiation of Economic Convergence of Resource-based Cities in Northeast China

A key target of the overall strategy implementation for regional development since the 18th Party Congress of China has involved taking measures to narrow regional disparities. This is because resource-based cities' economic development has fallen below general levels due to resource exhaustion and an unbalanced industrial structure, among other factors. Further, an economic gap has long existed between Northeast China's large number of resource-based cities and non-resource-based cities. This article comprehensively studies the economic convergence of Northeast China's resource-based cities and non-resource-based cities from 1996 to 2015 by using a dynamic panel to analyze not only the economic development of different industries and types of cities, but also the main factors that influence economic development. The empirical results demonstrate that economic convergence exists in both resource-based and non-resource-based cities, but the economic gap between them has clearly narrowed since the implementation of a strategy to revitalize the Northeast's old industrial base. Shrinking cities are the fastest to converge, as mature cities are slower and regenerating cities are the slowest; regarding industry structure, the secondary industry dominates the economy in mature and shrinking cities, and the tertiary industry in regenerating cities. The primary stimulus in resource-based cities' economic development involves upgrading the industrial structure and investing in human capital. As China faces a ‘new normal' economy, resource-based cities in Northeast China should restructure the economy and perfect their market system to avoid again widening the economic gap.

Characteristics and Driving Forces of Spatial Expansion of Oasis Cities and Towns in Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, China

This paper presents an integrated study of urban spatial expansion in the Hexi Corridor, Gansu Province, China based on TM, ETM remote sensing data in 1987, 1990, 1995, 2000, 2006 and 2011. The study explores the characteristics of urban spatial expansion and dynamic mechanism by using expansion speed index, expansion intensity index, compact index, fractal dimension, and extended flexibility index. We built the index system of influencing factors of urban spatial expansion by using the grey incidence model. The results showed that urban spatial expansion rate in the Hexi Corridor has been on the upward trend since 1987. Expansion intensity showed an obvious upward trend, however, the upward trend varied in different urban areas. In addition, the urban structure was loose relatively, but the urban compactness was more obvious. The urban spatial form tended to be simple, and the urban land use tended to become more intensive. Urban spatial expansion experienced several stages: padding internally, external expansion and padding internally. The main driving factors of urban spatial expansion are not the urban water resources and the oasis scale, but one or several factors such as economy, traffic, population, resource and national policy.

GROWTH OF NEW DESIGNATED CITIES IN CHINA

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Which Neighborhoods Have Easier Access to Online Home Delivery Services?A Spatiotemporal Accessibility Analysis in Nanjing,China

The rise in online home delivery services(OHDS)has had a significant impact on how urban services are supplied and used in recent years.Studies on the spatial accessibility of OHDS are emerging,but few is known about the temporal dimension of OHDS accessibility as well as the geographic and socioeconomic differences in the spatiotemporal accessibility of OHDS.This study measures the spatiotemporal accessibility of four types of OHDS,namely leisure,fresh and convenient,medical,and catering services.The geographic and socioeconomic disparities in the spatiotemporal accessibility of these four types of OHDS are then identified using spatial statistical methods and the Kruskal-Wallis test(K-W test).The case study in Nanjing,China,suggests that:1)spatiotemporal accessibility better reflects the temporal variation of OHDS accessibility and avoids overestimation of OHDS accessibility when only considering its spatial dimension.2)The spatiotemporal accessibility of OHDS varies geographically and socioeconomically.Neighborhoods located in the main city or neighborhoods with higher housing prices,higher population density,and higher point of interest(POI)mix have better OHDS spatiotemporal accessibility.Our study contributes to the understanding of OHDS accessibility from a spatiotemporal perspective,and the empirical insights can assist policymakers in creating intervention plans that take into account variations in OHDS spatiotemporal accessibility.

Decomposition Analysis on Direct Material Input and Dematerialization of Mining Cities in Northeast China

Material dematerialization is a basic approach to reduce the pressure on the resources and environment and to realize the sustainable development. The material flow analysis and decomposition method are used to calculate the direct material input (DMI) of 14 typical mining cities in Northeast China in 1995–2004 and to analyze the demateri- alization and its driving factors in the different types of mining cities oriented by coal, petroleum, metallurgy and multi-resources. The results are as follows: 1) from 1995 to 2006, the increase rates of the DMI and the material input intensity of mining cities declined following the order of multi-resources, metallurgy, coal, and petroleum cities, and the material utilizing efficiency did following the order of petroleum, coal, metallurgy, and multi-resources cities; 2) during the research period, all the kinds of mining cities were in the situation of weak sustainable development in most years; 3) the pressure on resources and environment in the multi-resources cities was the most serious; 4) the petro- leum cities showed the strong trend of sustainable development; and 5) in recent years, the driving function of eco- nomic development for material consuming has continuously strengthened and the controlling function of material utilizing efficiency for it has weakened. The key approaches to promote the development of circular economy of min- ing cities in Northeast China are put forward in the following aspects: 1) to strengthen the research and development of the technique of resources’ cycling utilization, 2) to improve the utilizing efficiency of resources, and 3) to carry out the auditing system of resources utilization.

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SERIOUSLY POLLUTED CITIES IN CHINA——Taking Benxi City as an Example

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ON DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE CITIES IN CHINA

The large cities in China have grown rapidly during the past 40 years. By the end of 1990, there were 59 large cities with a population of 0.5 million or more in the China's Mainland, of which 31 cities have a population of more than 1 million. Under the situation of controlling and developing, the characteristics of the large city grooth may be generalized as follows: 1. Large cities have developed rapidly, but their proportion of number and population in the whole national urban system has dropped. 2. The proportion of coastal large cities some what dropped, the inland large cities increased rapidly.3. Most of the provincial capitals have developed into large cities. Due to the concentration of industry and population to the cities, especially to the large cities, the cities scales are expending and the urban problems are strenghtened. The economic efficiency in large cities is decreasing, the Problems in infrastructure construction are becoming more and more serious. The coming 10 to 20 years are an important period for large city development in China. With the social and economic development, the large city growth will continue. The urbann agglomerations-taking the extra-large and medium-sized cities as their centres will come into being in China. the industries such as finance, trade,information and real estate will increase greatly and will form the major part of urban area, with the restructuring of industries in metropolitan regions.

Distribution of primary school based on spatial network comprehensive model in low-income mountainous cities： a case study in Wanyuan, China

Focusing on the peculiarities of urban construction resulting from specific mountain terrains, the purpose of this study is to find out a suitable method based on a Spatial Network Comprehensive Model(SNCM) to reasonably plan and distribute primary schools in low-income mountain cities. The construction principles and advantages of the SNCM method are proposed and the method tested in Wanyuan city of Qinba Mountain area(Southwest China) to verify its feasibility and optimization. Taking account of the mountain terrain and its influence on user behavior, we used the SNCM method to build a comprehensive model which integrates the road slope and the walking speed of pupils into the basic spatial model. The model is used to calculate a reasonable layout of the primary schools and to validate the rationale. The results show that the SNCM method can be effectively applied in low-income mountainous cities. It can not only improve the accessibility and service efficiency of primary schools using as little capital-investment as possible, but also help the city grow in an intensive and efficient way.

Spatio-temporal Evolution Characteristics and Driving Forces of Winter Urban Heat Island:A Case Study of Rapid Urbanization Area of Fuzhou City,China

Under the influence of anthropogenic and climate change,the problems caused by urban heat island(UHI)has become increasingly prominent.In order to promote urban sustainable development and improve the quality of human settlements,it is significant for exploring the evolution characteristics of urban thermal environment and analyzing its driving forces.Taking the Landsat series images as the basic data sources,the winter land surface temperature(LST)of the rapid urbanization area of Fuzhou City in China was quantitatively retrieved from 2001 to 2021.Combing comprehensively the standard deviation ellipse model,profile analysis and GeoDetector model,the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of the winter urban thermal environment were systematically analyzed.The results showed that the winter LST presented an increasing trend in the study area during 2001–2021,and the winter LST of the central urban regions was significantly higher than the suburbs.There was a strong UHI effect from 2001 to 2021with an expansion trend from the central urban regions to the suburbs and coastal areas in space scale.The LST of green lands and wetlands are significantly lower than croplands,artificial surface and unvegetated lands.Vegetation and water bodies had a significant mitigation effect on UHI,especially in the micro-scale.The winter UHI had been jointly driven by the underlying surface and socio-economic factors in a nonlinear or two-factor interactive enhancement mode,and socio-economic factors had played a leading role.This research could provide data support and decision-making references for rationally planning urban layout and promoting sustainable urban development.

Structural Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emission Spatial Association Network:A Case Study of Yangtze River Delta City Cluster,China

City cluster is an effective platform for encouraging regionally coordinated development.Coordinated reduction of carbon emissions within city cluster via the spatial association network between cities can help coordinate the regional carbon emission management,realize sustainable development,and assist China in achieving the carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.This paper applies the improved gravity model and social network analysis(SNA)to the study of spatial correlation of carbon emissions in city clusters and analyzes the structural characteristics of the spatial correlation network of carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD)city cluster in China and its influencing factors.The results demonstrate that:1)the spatial association of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster exhibits a typical and complex multi-threaded network structure.The network association number and density show an upward trend,indicating closer spatial association between cities,but their values remain generally low.Meanwhile,the network hierarchy and network efficiency show a downward trend but remain high.2)The spatial association network of carbon emissions in the YRD city cluster shows an obvious‘core-edge’distribution pattern.The network is centered around Shanghai,Suzhou and Wuxi,all of which play the role of‘bridges’,while cities such as Zhoushan,Ma'anshan,Tongling and other cities characterized by the remote location,single transportation mode or lower economic level are positioned at the edge of the network.3)Geographic proximity,varying levels of economic development,different industrial structures,degrees of urbanization,levels of technological innovation,energy intensities and environmental regulation are important influencing factors on the spatial association of within the YRD city cluster.Finally,policy implications are provided from four aspects:government macro-control and market mechanism guidance,structural characteristics of the‘core-edge’network,reconfiguration and optimization of the spatial layout of the YRD city cluster,and the application of advanced technologies.

Planning of Small Cities and Towns in Northwest China Based on New Urbanization Concepts

Construction and development of small cities and towns is signifi cant for promoting economic and social development,and solving issues concerning "agriculture,rural areas and peasants". In view of the rapid development of small cities and towns,confl icts and problems in the planning and construction of the small cities and towns in northwest China have emerged and brought negative infl uence on their healthy and sustainable development. On the basis of analyzing scientifi c connotations and construction needs of new urbanization,development of northwest China,and reviews on planning of small cities and towns in this region,planning paths against the background of new urbanization were explored.

Problems in the Development of Small Cities and Towns in West China and Countermeasures: A Case Study of Luzhou City, Sichuan Province

New urbanization targets at coordinated urban-rural development, and construction of ecological and livable environment, it is the foundation for breaking urban-rural dual structure of China and promoting the agricultural modernization. Small cities and towns as carriers of new urbanization have already become important paths of realizing new urbanization and solving problems concerning 300 million peasants in China. Considering the requirements of new urbanization, this paper took Luzhou City in Sichuan Province for example to explore development path suitable for small cities and towns in west China and gave pertinent suggestions.