China's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN,Japan and Korea:A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia ＇s recovery from the recent global finaneial and economic crisis highlights China ＇s position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements （FTAs） with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast-growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China＇s FTAs with East Asian major economies： China-ASEAN, China-Japan, China-Korea and ASEAN＋ 3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China ＂s output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN＋ 3. Because forming a region-wide FTA, such as the ASEAN＋ 3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China shouM continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a mediumterm and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a regionwide FTA.

Prospects for ASEAN-China Free Trade Area:A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN- China Free Trade Area （.4 CFTA）, which is set to come into effect around 2010..4CFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors： ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether,4CFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding A CFTA ＇s prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China.

An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement＇s economic and environmental impacts on China

Recently, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea （Korea） are conducting a government-commis- sioned feasibility study on the Free Trade Agreement among the three countries （CJKFTA） to form a regional free trade zone in East Asia. Considering that freer trade can cause unexpected impact on domestic environment, there is a need to evaluate the environmental impact of such a trade policy. This move should be made to help negotiators understand and pay more attention to environ- mental issues during CJKFTA negotiations, and to help lobby with the government to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaptation or mitigation. Following the Chain Reaction Assessment Method that integrates and links the elements of trade, production, and environment, the present research aims to quantitatively assess CJKFTA＇s possible impact on China＇s environment. This is done by estimating the variations of China＇s major conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases （GHGs） emission in two policy scenarios to represent CJKFTA＇s scale and composition effects on China＇s environment. Estimating the variations is based on a static Computable General Equilibrium model, working with Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） 7 database and China＇s energy- environment statistics. Based on these assessments, CJKFTA is predicted to lead to notable environmental impact, including increased emissions of agricultural total nitrogen, agricultural total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, and GHGs. On the other hand, decreased emissions of industrial SO2 and dust are also expected to happen. Suitable policies need to be made to combat negative effects and amplify positive ones, while aiming at a more sustainable regional freer trade system.

Emergence of ASEAN,China and India and the Regional Architecture

The rise of ASEAN, China and India as economic powers is of great significance to regional as well as global economic development. Although their ascendance in the global economy will continue, they will have to go to great pains to meet the new challenges. Considering ASEAN, China and India as a group, due to their differences in economic development levels, economic structures and policy concern priorities, it is difficult for them to formulate a unifiedposition on a range of global issues. ASEAN, China and India must foster an open, transparent and efficient regional as well as global environment. They need to cooperate in designing the architecture to ensure regional as well as global freer trade and investmen, and more stable finance, and to play more active roles in future global governance and rulemaking.

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership： Policy Options of China

As a result of deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have embarked on the establishment of bilateral and regional trade agreements. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project database and a computable general equilibrium model, our paper focuses on the impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership （TTIP） and the Trans- Pacific Partnership （TPP） on the Chinese economy under three scenarios. The results suggest that when only the TTIP is realized, Chinese economic variables are negatively affected. When both the TTIP and the TPP are realized and China is excluded, the combined damage to the Chinese economy is higher than the damage with the TTIP alone. However, the inclusion of China in the TPP has a positively effect on economic variables in China. This indicates that the impacts of China ＇s participation in the TPP compensate for the negative impacts of the TTIP. Therefore, China should consider being part of the TPP to offset the negative impacts of the TTIP.

Possible Chinese Strategic Responses to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership （TPP） Agreement have concluded, but the TPP still must be ratified by each of the 12 member countries. China is the world＇s second largest economy and yet it has not joined the TPP. This has provoked much debate in China as to the best strategic approach to the TPP This paper analyzes China＇s possible strategy for the TPP agreement. We make three key points. First, the security of market access should be China＇s main concern in any free-trade agreement negotiations, regrettably, it is not included in TPP. The second point is that the present TPP agreement is somewhat diminished from its ambitious original claims. We suggest four strategies for China. The first is to promote the development of China＇s remaining regional and bilateral free trade agreements （FTAs）. The second is to negotiate a bilateral FTA with the United States. The third is to promote deep domestic reforms via enlarged TPP coverage. The last is negotiating entrance to the entering do not worsen. TPP as soon as possible so that terms of

自由贸易协定纵向深化对中国出口商品结构的影响——以CAFTA升级为准自然实验

自由贸易协定纵向深化是中国推进自由贸易区提升战略的重要内容,厘清其对出口商品结构优化的影响对实现出口贸易高质量发展具有重要意义。基于中国-东盟自由贸易区升级视角,运用双重差分法系统研究了自由贸易协定纵向深化对中国出口商品结构的影响。结果显示,自由贸易协定纵向深化对中国出口商品结构优化具有显著正向作用,这种正向效应在基础制造业中更凸显;自由贸易协定纵向深化通过价值链整合效应、外商投资激励效应和生产效率促进效应等途径显著促进了出口商品结构优化。基于此,提出了持续推进FTA纵向深化、扩大面向全球的高标准自由贸易区网络,畅通FTA纵向深化促进出口商品结构优化的作用渠道,推动装备制造业深度融入自由贸易区市场等对策建议。

CAFTA升级前后服务贸易开放对中国制造业服务化的影响研究

中国对东盟整体的服务贸易开放平均水平比东盟整体对中国的低,随着CAFTA的升级,二者水平均呈上升趋势,且波动幅度趋缓.东盟自贸区内各个国家相互之间的服务贸易开放水平各有不同,但中国与新加坡、泰国、菲律宾和越南等国的开放水平较高.运用国家投入产出表测度中国制造业投入服务化和产出服务化水平,发现二者都呈现逐年上升的趋势,且CAFTA升级后,制造业投入服务化水平上升幅度更明显.CAFTA的升级对中国制造业服务化水平的提升有显著的促进作用,中国对东盟的服务贸易开放水平对中国制造业投入服务化的影响更大,而东盟对中国的服务贸易开放对中国制造业产出服务化的影响程度相对较小.

中国-东盟自贸区背景下食品类人才培养探究——以南宁学院食品质量与安全专业为例

广西是中国-东盟自由贸易区的开放前沿,其与东盟国家贸易的快速发展对区域内的食品类人才培养提出新要求。该文通过分析现阶段广西食品类人才在区域性国际化方向培养中存在的问题,立足南宁学院食品质量安全专业的办学特色,提出从实践教学体系、课程体系、教育评价体系及实践教学能力出发,探讨服务中国-东盟自贸区发展的人才培养模式,以期为区域性、复合型人才的培养模式提供新思路。

中国—东盟自由贸易区3.0版建设路径探析

自2020年起,中国与东盟互为第一大贸易伙伴,双边经贸合作进入全新阶段。中国—东盟自由贸易区升级版协定已签署超过七年,与RCEP、CPTPP等最新的国际经贸规则相比,还存在贸易便利化政策水平有待提高、服务贸易开放承诺水平不高、未涉及新贸易方式和新贸易需求的内容、投资政策不够便利等问题。在中国—东盟自由贸易区3.0版建设中,可以在对标RCEP、CPTPP等先进自由贸易规则的基础上,提高谈判标准,探索解决目前RCEP实施过程中存在的困难问题,进一步提升贸易便利化水平和投资自由化水平、拓展新贸易方式和新贸易需求、创新通关便利化条款。

自由贸易协定对中国外贸高质量发展的影响

当前世界贸易组织发展停滞,自由贸易协定成为促进贸易发展的重要平台。选取2003—2020年中国与156个贸易伙伴的面板数据,利用熵值法计算中国外贸高质量发展综合指数建立计量模型,探讨FTA对我国外贸高质量发展的影响。结果表明:FTA显著促进我国外贸高质量发展,且标准越高的FTA促进作用越大;与仅考虑条款覆盖范围的FTA相比,考虑条款法律可执行性,FTA的促进作用更明显;“WTO+”和“WTO-X”条款对我国外贸高质量发展都有显著的促进作用,且“WTO-X”条款的作用相对更大;FTA具体条款对我国外贸高质量发展的影响各不相同;无论我国与发达国家还是发展中国家签署FTA,均能显著促进我国外贸高质量发展。

RCEP实施与东盟各国推动对华经贸便利化阶段成效、具体举措与路径优化

近年来,东盟与中国经贸合作水平不断攀升。《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》生效实施以来,东盟对华贸易总量继续快速上升,连续第三年成为中国最大贸易伙伴。同时,东盟各国对华贸易结构不断优化、特色鲜明、各具优势,泛亚铁路网建设也正逐渐推进。东盟各国的经贸便利化措施,带来了实实在在的收益。面对当前中国—东盟经贸合作中一些现实问题和挑战,应加速以制度型开放推进高水平对外开放,加速中国—东盟自由贸易区3.0版提档升级,加速以通关便利化引领中国—东盟贸易合作升级。

海南自由贸易港建设推动南海区域经济合作的策略研究

海南自由贸易港建设是推进高水平对外开放、推动经济全球化的国家战略。在党的二十大精神引领下,文章运用系统分析、政策分析等方法,主要分析了海南自贸港建设推动南海区域经济合作的新机遇、挑战与对策。研究结论表明,党的二十大关于高水平对外开放的方针为海南自贸港建设推动南海区域经济合作提供了新机遇,但自贸港建设与区域合作也面临一系列问题和挑战。对此,文章提出海南自贸港建设要面向东南亚推动以制度型开放为核心的高水平对外开放,依托博鳌亚洲论坛加强区域交流,构建“南海经济合作圈”,以特色产业加强与“一带一路”沿线南海国家和地区的合作,打造海南自贸港—东盟互联互通,推进建设“两个总部基地”。

百年未有之大变局对海南自由贸易港建设的机遇与挑战

当前,世界百年未有之大变局加速演进,全球政治、经济、安全格局正在经历深刻调整,和平赤字、发展赤字、安全赤字、治理赤字加重,人类社会面临前所未有的挑战。面对战略机遇和风险挑战并存、不确定难预料因素增多的外部环境,中国坚持推进高水平对外开放,以建设新型开放大国赢得主动,并要求将海南自由贸易港打造成为引领我国新时代对外开放的鲜明旗帜和重要开放门户。为实现这一战略目标,海南需要客观分析内外形势和机遇挑战,并抓住机遇主动担当作为,着力打造新时期我国高水平对外开放新高地、国内国际双循环的重要交汇点、中国与东盟全面战略合作的重要枢纽、以人文交流为重点的公共外交平台以及中国—东盟蓝色经济伙伴关系核心区。

中国—东盟自贸协定的农产品贸易效应评估分析

加快实施自由贸易区战略,为中国新一轮对外开放的重要内容。中国—东盟自贸协定是中国对外签署的第一个自贸协定,也是东盟作为整体对外商谈的第一个自贸协定,双方在农业领域均做出了较大的开放承诺。本文全面分析了中国—东盟自贸协定各成员农产品降税和协定实施前后农产品贸易的变化情况,通过引力模型定量测度了协定实施对双边农产品贸易的影响。研究结果显示,中国—东盟自贸协定的签署和实施后,农产品关税减让的分阶段实施对促进中国和东盟国家的农产品贸易具有显著的促进作用,且对进口的促进作用大于出口。建议利用自贸区升级和RCEP开放机遇,推进双边农业贸易投资自由化便利化,并持续促进与东盟的农业硬软件互联互通,促进农业双向投资。

中国—新西兰自由贸易协定对两国乳制品贸易的影响

【目的/意义】自由贸易协定(FTA)有利于两国贸易,促进经济发展。【方法/过程】通过Excel函数以UN Comtrade数据库2000—2020年中新两国的乳制品进出口贸易额测算TII、T、RCA和TCI这4个指数,对比分析FTA签订前后2个时期的指数变化,以及通过Stata以UN Comtrade数据库2000—2020年中国前5大乳制品进口来源国的贸易数据建立引力模型,研究FTA对中新两国乳制品贸易的影响。【结果/结论】结果显示,新西兰乳制品有较大的出口优势,FTA的签署加深了中国进口与新西兰出口乳制品贸易的互补性。引力模型显示FTA与中新两国乳制品贸易额呈正相关,两国间的GDP差额对中国乳制品进口额有正向影响,两国间的运输成本对中国乳制品进口额有负向影响,中新两国乳制品贸易额总体呈上升趋势。

区域贸易政策不确定性与出口企业创新研究——以中国-东盟自由贸易区为例

以中国-东盟自由贸易区正式成立为例,结合2001—2013年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关数据库,使用双重差分法(DID)探究区域贸易政策不确定性对出口企业创新的影响。结果显示:中国-东盟自由贸易区正式成立带来的区域贸易政策不确定性降低有利于中国出口企业创新,提高企业的专利申请量和专利质量。并且这一效应在混合贸易企业、资本密集型企业、民营企业以及向东盟出口企业中更为显著。机制分析表明,区域贸易政策不确定性下降会通过扩大出口市场规模、促进企业提高创新投入,从而影响企业创新。因此,高质量实施区域自由贸易区战略能够降低中国出口企业面临的贸易政策不确定性风险,促进企业创新。

中日韩FTA建设的新机遇与新挑战——基于全球大变局视域下

当前,世界政治经济格局正经历百年未有之大变局。中日韩FTA建设契合三国共同利益,不仅可以给三国带来巨大的经济效益,而且更能彰显三国拥护全球化,反对贸易保护主义的政治决心。中日韩FTA是三方经贸合作的“助推器”,有利于三方在深入合作中增进共识,消除分歧,增强互信,对东北亚和世界安全稳定具有重要意义。

中国-东盟自贸区城市群空间经济关联研究——基于社会网络分析法的视角

从城市群的角度运用社会网络分析法对中国-东盟自贸区空间经济联系进行研究,首先从度、入度、出度3个角度对自贸区内的44个城市建立网络模型分析城市之间的复杂关系。其次对网络图进行中心度分析,判断城市的经济辐射范围,基于核心-边缘理论对自贸区内44个城市划分。最后利用派系过滤算法对城市网络图进行社团结构分析,利用K-plex算法进行凝聚子群分析。分析结果表明自贸区内城市之间存在密切的联系,核心城市群与边缘城市群圈层明显;同时中国在自贸区内扮演着重要角色,带动国家经济关系建设,促进区域经济的繁荣发展。

区域贸易协定与出口的二元边际:基于中国—东盟自贸区的微观数据分析

以周边国家为基础加快实施自由贸易区战略是未来中国对外经济政策的重点。本文使用CEPII—BACI数据库1995-2012年中国对东盟各国的HS-6位数产品的出口贸易数据，探究了中国-东盟自贸区建立前后中国对东盟出口的二元边际结构及其决定因素。研究发现，中国对东盟的出口以集约边际为主，但自贸区的成立有效地促进了扩展边际的提升；中国-东盟自贸区对二元边际都有促进作用，但对集约边际的影响更大。结果表明，中国的自贸区战略仍处于浅度一体化的阶段，应该提高合作水平，向深度一体化发展。