China's Free Trade Agreements with ASEAN,Japan and Korea:A Comparative Analysis

The role of China in East Asia ＇s recovery from the recent global finaneial and economic crisis highlights China ＇s position as an engine of growth for this region. From the viewpoint of China, there are many potential gains from entering into free trade agreements （FTAs） with its neighbors, who collectively form a large and fast-growing market. In this paper, we qualitatively and quantitatively assess the four main permutations of China＇s FTAs with East Asian major economies： China-ASEAN, China-Japan, China-Korea and ASEAN＋ 3. We compare the effects of these FTAs on China ＂s output and welfare. Our comparative analysis shows that China will gain from all three bilateral FTAs, while gaining the most from the ASEAN＋ 3. Because forming a region-wide FTA, such as the ASEAN＋ 3, is expected to be gradual and difficult, China shouM continue to engage in bilateral FTAs as a mediumterm and alternative strategy. However, in the long term, China should pursue a regionwide FTA.

Prospects for ASEAN-China Free Trade Area:A Qualitative and Quantitative Analysis

The current global financial and economic crisis is giving new life to initiatives that promote closer economic integration among East Asian countries. A significant example is the ASEAN- China Free Trade Area （.4 CFTA）, which is set to come into effect around 2010..4CFTA aims to boost trade between two economies that are partners as well as competitors： ASEAN and China. In the present paper, we use insights from customs union theory in a qualitative analysis considering whether,4CFTA would benefit both sides. We also apply a computable general equilibrium model to perform a quantitative analysis of the same issue. Both our qualitative and quantitative analyses provide grounds for guarded optimism regarding A CFTA ＇s prospects as a vehicle for strengthening the economic partnership between ASEAN and China.

An assessment of China-Japan-Korea Free Trade Agreement＇s economic and environmental impacts on China

Recently, China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea （Korea） are conducting a government-commis- sioned feasibility study on the Free Trade Agreement among the three countries （CJKFTA） to form a regional free trade zone in East Asia. Considering that freer trade can cause unexpected impact on domestic environment, there is a need to evaluate the environmental impact of such a trade policy. This move should be made to help negotiators understand and pay more attention to environ- mental issues during CJKFTA negotiations, and to help lobby with the government to carry out appropriate policy instruments for adaptation or mitigation. Following the Chain Reaction Assessment Method that integrates and links the elements of trade, production, and environment, the present research aims to quantitatively assess CJKFTA＇s possible impact on China＇s environment. This is done by estimating the variations of China＇s major conventional pollutants and greenhouse gases （GHGs） emission in two policy scenarios to represent CJKFTA＇s scale and composition effects on China＇s environment. Estimating the variations is based on a static Computable General Equilibrium model, working with Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） 7 database and China＇s energy- environment statistics. Based on these assessments, CJKFTA is predicted to lead to notable environmental impact, including increased emissions of agricultural total nitrogen, agricultural total phosphorus, chemical oxygen demand, and GHGs. On the other hand, decreased emissions of industrial SO2 and dust are also expected to happen. Suitable policies need to be made to combat negative effects and amplify positive ones, while aiming at a more sustainable regional freer trade system.

Emergence of ASEAN,China and India and the Regional Architecture

The rise of ASEAN, China and India as economic powers is of great significance to regional as well as global economic development. Although their ascendance in the global economy will continue, they will have to go to great pains to meet the new challenges. Considering ASEAN, China and India as a group, due to their differences in economic development levels, economic structures and policy concern priorities, it is difficult for them to formulate a unifiedposition on a range of global issues. ASEAN, China and India must foster an open, transparent and efficient regional as well as global environment. They need to cooperate in designing the architecture to ensure regional as well as global freer trade and investmen, and more stable finance, and to play more active roles in future global governance and rulemaking.

Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership and Trans-Pacific Partnership： Policy Options of China

As a result of deadlocked multilateral trade negotiations, many countries have embarked on the establishment of bilateral and regional trade agreements. Using the Global Trade Analysis Project database and a computable general equilibrium model, our paper focuses on the impacts of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership （TTIP） and the Trans- Pacific Partnership （TPP） on the Chinese economy under three scenarios. The results suggest that when only the TTIP is realized, Chinese economic variables are negatively affected. When both the TTIP and the TPP are realized and China is excluded, the combined damage to the Chinese economy is higher than the damage with the TTIP alone. However, the inclusion of China in the TPP has a positively effect on economic variables in China. This indicates that the impacts of China ＇s participation in the TPP compensate for the negative impacts of the TTIP. Therefore, China should consider being part of the TPP to offset the negative impacts of the TTIP.

Possible Chinese Strategic Responses to the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

Negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership （TPP） Agreement have concluded, but the TPP still must be ratified by each of the 12 member countries. China is the world＇s second largest economy and yet it has not joined the TPP. This has provoked much debate in China as to the best strategic approach to the TPP This paper analyzes China＇s possible strategy for the TPP agreement. We make three key points. First, the security of market access should be China＇s main concern in any free-trade agreement negotiations, regrettably, it is not included in TPP. The second point is that the present TPP agreement is somewhat diminished from its ambitious original claims. We suggest four strategies for China. The first is to promote the development of China＇s remaining regional and bilateral free trade agreements （FTAs）. The second is to negotiate a bilateral FTA with the United States. The third is to promote deep domestic reforms via enlarged TPP coverage. The last is negotiating entrance to the entering do not worsen. TPP as soon as possible so that terms of

自由贸易协定纵向深化对中国出口商品结构的影响——以CAFTA升级为准自然实验

自由贸易协定纵向深化是中国推进自由贸易区提升战略的重要内容,厘清其对出口商品结构优化的影响对实现出口贸易高质量发展具有重要意义。基于中国-东盟自由贸易区升级视角,运用双重差分法系统研究了自由贸易协定纵向深化对中国出口商品结构的影响。结果显示,自由贸易协定纵向深化对中国出口商品结构优化具有显著正向作用,这种正向效应在基础制造业中更凸显;自由贸易协定纵向深化通过价值链整合效应、外商投资激励效应和生产效率促进效应等途径显著促进了出口商品结构优化。基于此,提出了持续推进FTA纵向深化、扩大面向全球的高标准自由贸易区网络,畅通FTA纵向深化促进出口商品结构优化的作用渠道,推动装备制造业深度融入自由贸易区市场等对策建议。

CAFTA升级前后服务贸易开放对中国制造业服务化的影响研究

中国对东盟整体的服务贸易开放平均水平比东盟整体对中国的低,随着CAFTA的升级,二者水平均呈上升趋势,且波动幅度趋缓.东盟自贸区内各个国家相互之间的服务贸易开放水平各有不同,但中国与新加坡、泰国、菲律宾和越南等国的开放水平较高.运用国家投入产出表测度中国制造业投入服务化和产出服务化水平,发现二者都呈现逐年上升的趋势,且CAFTA升级后,制造业投入服务化水平上升幅度更明显.CAFTA的升级对中国制造业服务化水平的提升有显著的促进作用,中国对东盟的服务贸易开放水平对中国制造业投入服务化的影响更大,而东盟对中国的服务贸易开放对中国制造业产出服务化的影响程度相对较小.

中国-东盟自贸区背景下食品类人才培养探究——以南宁学院食品质量与安全专业为例

广西是中国-东盟自由贸易区的开放前沿,其与东盟国家贸易的快速发展对区域内的食品类人才培养提出新要求。该文通过分析现阶段广西食品类人才在区域性国际化方向培养中存在的问题,立足南宁学院食品质量安全专业的办学特色,提出从实践教学体系、课程体系、教育评价体系及实践教学能力出发,探讨服务中国-东盟自贸区发展的人才培养模式,以期为区域性、复合型人才的培养模式提供新思路。

中国-东盟自贸区城市群空间经济关联研究——基于社会网络分析法的视角

从城市群的角度运用社会网络分析法对中国-东盟自贸区空间经济联系进行研究,首先从度、入度、出度3个角度对自贸区内的44个城市建立网络模型分析城市之间的复杂关系。其次对网络图进行中心度分析,判断城市的经济辐射范围,基于核心-边缘理论对自贸区内44个城市划分。最后利用派系过滤算法对城市网络图进行社团结构分析,利用K-plex算法进行凝聚子群分析。分析结果表明自贸区内城市之间存在密切的联系,核心城市群与边缘城市群圈层明显;同时中国在自贸区内扮演着重要角色,带动国家经济关系建设,促进区域经济的繁荣发展。

区域贸易协定与出口的二元边际:基于中国—东盟自贸区的微观数据分析

以周边国家为基础加快实施自由贸易区战略是未来中国对外经济政策的重点。本文使用CEPII—BACI数据库1995-2012年中国对东盟各国的HS-6位数产品的出口贸易数据，探究了中国-东盟自贸区建立前后中国对东盟出口的二元边际结构及其决定因素。研究发现，中国对东盟的出口以集约边际为主，但自贸区的成立有效地促进了扩展边际的提升；中国-东盟自贸区对二元边际都有促进作用，但对集约边际的影响更大。结果表明，中国的自贸区战略仍处于浅度一体化的阶段，应该提高合作水平，向深度一体化发展。

中国-东盟自由贸易区对我国经济和区域农业影响的预测

本文分析和预测了中国!东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)对双边总体经济和我国区域农业的影响。研究结果表明:CAFTA将同时促进中国-东盟的经济增长,提高双边的福利,提高区域内贸易和资源配置效率;但对我国不同地区农业生产的影响存在显著的差别,在华北、东北以及华东等地区农业获益的同时,华南地区农业将受到负面冲击。

中国与东盟自由贸易区建设中的环境法律机制构建——基于区域合作中国际环境资源法律机制构建的视角

以对当前中国—东盟自由贸易区建设中的环境问题与环境法律机制问题进行实证分析为前提,对北美自由贸易协定对环境与贸易问题的协调及其启示加以有益的借鉴,倡导在确认成员国有确定本国环境保护水平的自由裁量权的基础上,建立独立的区域环境贸易争端解决机制,进而尝试在协调区域内成员国间环境标准及协调区域贸易协定与多边环境协定间的关系等方面构建一个全新的模式。

中国——东盟自由贸易区中医药服务贸易谈判要价研究

东盟已成为中国中医药产品出口和中医药服务贸易最具发展潜力的新兴市场,中国-东盟自由贸易区的全面建成助推双边医药贸易,关税将不再是双方医药贸易的主要障碍,主要障碍来自于一些非关税壁垒。中医药服务贸易发展的主要障碍表现为中医药在东盟各国中的法律地位、中医药服务提供者的资质认可和开业权等方面的问题,即表现为国内规制和市场准入两个方面政策措施和具体落实问题。中医药服务贸易谈判要价应侧重于进一步推进中医药服务贸易纳入到中国-东盟服务贸易渐进自由化进程议题之中,建立中国-东盟国家在中医药方面的法规协调与互认机制,在药典、标准方面加强合作与协调,在中医药服务贸易的中医市场准入和国民待遇方面开展水平承诺和具体承诺方面的政策磋商,逐步全面提高承诺水平,推动中国-东盟中医药服务贸易渐进自由化进程。

中国—东盟双边贸易结构分析与政策建议

本文认为,我国与东盟各国双边贸易快速发展有其内在的必然性,即双方在资源禀赋、产业结构和生产能力等方面各有所长,并形成了一定的产业分工格局,在贸易商品结构方面具有较强的互补性。文章提出,发展与东盟国家的经贸合作,应针对其自然资源丰富,经济发展和产业发展不平衡的特点,根据不同国家和地区的资源结构、经济结构及经济技术水平,寻求合作领域;遵循经贸合作的双向性,积极吸引东盟国家的直接投资,同时鼓励企业走出国门到东盟国家投资办厂;建立中国与东盟国家的合作协调机制;发挥各自的比较优势,构筑产业梯度转移体系。

中国—东盟热带水果贸易强度及潜力分析

基于贸易强度视角分析CAFTA框架下中国—东盟热带水果贸易效应,运用ARIMA模型与引力模型检验了中国—东盟热带水果贸易潜力及出口影响因素。结果表明,"早期收获计划"使东盟成为中国热带水果最大的进口来源地与出口市场,区域内热带水果贸易互补性较强。CAFTA的建立能在短期内促进双方热带水果贸易流量增加,但长期作用不明显,自贸区外贸易转移效应短期内亦不突出。经济规模、人口数量、双边直线距离等因素对中国与东盟热带水果出口贸易流量有显著影响,未来区域内热带水果贸易潜力巨大。

从产业成长的视角看中国—东盟自由贸易区的发展

本文首先根据生产要素细分的要素禀赋理论说明自由贸易协定将促进双方的贸易额的增长;然后利用动态化的要素禀赋理论阐述自由贸易协定能够达到提升双方产业结构的效果。目前,国内关于中国—东盟建立自由贸易区的文章大多围绕其对双边贸易的促进和经济一体化的积极影响展开论述。我们提出建立自由贸易区的目标不应只是贸易额的增长,更为重要的是应当通过自由贸易的发展带动该地区产业结构升级和经济发展。

中国和东盟诸国知识产权制度协调模式研究

中国和东盟诸国的知识产权制度之间存在巨大的差异,并对中国和东盟诸国开展经贸往来形成阻碍。为适应中国—东盟自由贸易区的建立,双方应建立协调对话机制,制定统一的知识产权法。现在,国际上已有成例可资借鉴,其中以欧盟的做法较为符合中国和东盟的实际。

中国-东盟自由贸易区贸易创造与贸易转移效应实证分析——以水果类产品为例

利用联合国贸发委及中国官方数据,以水果类产品为例,运用巴拉萨模型分析中国-东盟自由贸易区贸易创造和贸易转移效应,发现水果类产品总体及水果分类产品和农产品一样具有贸易创造效应,该效应对中国、东盟福利的提高及国际化有积极的作用,提出中国应当加强水果类深加工产品的发展力度,继续保持CAFTA自由贸易区发展。

中国—东盟自由贸易区的中国农产品出口贸易效应

东盟是中国重要的农产品贸易伙伴,中国—东盟自由贸易区(CAFTA)的建设会对中国与东盟国家的农产品贸易产生重要影响。基于1992—2015年中国农产品出口贸易数据,在扩展引力模型的基础上,采用Heckman两阶段模型考察了CAFTA建设对中国农产品出口贸易的影响。结果显示:中国农产品出口贸易不存在转移效应和创造效应,CAFTA未能有效促进中国对CAFTA内部国家的农产品出口,甚至存在负向效应。进一步的农产品分类研究发现,CAFTA与中国的肉及肉制品等6类农产品的出口之间没有显著相关性;对中国食品及主要供食用的活动物等13类农产品出口贸易存在创造效应,不存在转移效应;对中国其余3类农产品向成员国的出口贸易呈现负效应;对外部出口有较好的促进作用;CAFTA的出口贸易效应具有阶段性特征。