Uncertainty analysis for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters in the South China Sea

The calculation results of marine environmental design parameters obtained from different data sampling methods,model distributions,and parameter estimation methods often vary greatly.To better analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters,a general model uncertainty assessment method is necessary.We proposed a new multivariate model uncertainty assessment method for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters.The method divides the overall model uncertainty into two categories:aleatory uncertainty and epistemic uncertainty.The aleatory uncertainty of the model is obtained by analyzing the influence of the number and the dispersion degree of samples on the information entropy of the model.The epistemic uncertainty of the model is calculated using the information entropy of the model itself and the prediction error.The advantages of this method are that it does not require many-year-observation data for the marine environmental elements,and the method can be used to analyze any specific factors that cause model uncertainty.Results show that by applying the method to the South China Sea,the aleatory uncertainty of the model increases with the number of samples and then stabilizes.A positive correlation was revealed between the dispersion of the samples and the aleatory uncertainty of the model.Both the distribution of the model and the parameter estimation results of the model have significant effects on the epistemic uncertainty of the model.When the goodness-of-fit of the model is relatively close,the best model can be selected according to the criterion of the lowest overall uncertainty of the models,which can both ensure a better model fit and avoid too much uncertainty in the model calculation results.The presented multivariate model uncertainty assessment method provides a criterion to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the marine environmental design parameter calculation model from the aspect of uncertainty,which is of great significance to analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters and improve the accuracy of the calculation results.

Formation and evolution of the South China Sea since the Late Mesozoic:A review

The existing genetic models of the South China Sea(SCS)include an extrusion model of the Indochina Peninsula,a back-arc extension model,and a subduction and dragging model of the Proto-South China Sea(PSCS).However,none of these models has been universally accepted because they do not fully match a large number of geological phenomena and facts.By examining the regional tectonics and integrating them with measured data for the SCS,in this study,a back-arc spreading-sinistral shear model is proposed.It is suggested that the SCS is a back-arc basin formed by northward subduction of the PSCS and its formation was triggered by left-lateral strike-slip motion due to the northward drift of the Philippine Sea Plate.The left-lateral strike-slip fault on the western margin caused by the Indo-Eurasian collision changed the direction of the Southwest Sub-basin's spreading axis from nearly E–W to NE–SW,and subduction retreat caused the spreading ridge to jump southward.This study summarizes the evolution of the SCS and adjacent regions since the Late Mesozoic.

Lower Boundary of the Marine Pleistocene in Northern Shelf of the South China Sea

A marine stratigraphic sequence across the Pliocene / Pleistocene boundary has been found in the north-ern continental shelf of the South China Sea. The marine Quaternary deposits in the Yinggehai Basin may ex-ceed 2,000 m in thickness, probably providing the best section for studying the lower boundary of the marinePleistocene in South China. The vertical succession with planktonic foraminifers and nannofossils revealed inboreholes in the basin has been well correlated with that in the international stratotype section of thePliocene / Pleistocene boundary at Vrica, Italy, resulting in the acquirement of a biostratigraphic boundary at1.64 Ma. This boundary, however, does not coincide with any prominent lithological palaeoenvironmentalchanges in the study area and can hardly be used in geological practice. There are, in contrast, significantchanges at the level of LAD of Globorotalia multicamerata sensu lato located below the above-mentionedboundary. The percentage of planktonic foraminifers in the total population and preservation of foraminiferaltests display great changes at this level corresponding to a clear onlap on the seismic profiles and indicating adepositional hiatus at ca. 2.0-2.5 Ma. Since the level can be widely traced in the Pearl River Mouth Basin andthe Beibu Gulf Basin and well corresponds with the marked depositional environmental changes recorded inthe west Pacific and other regions, it is recommended that the Plio / Pleistocene boundary be drawn at the levelof Gr. multicamerata sensu lato LAD, roughly concurrent with the Gauss / Matuyama turn.

One new free-living marine nematode species of genus Cephalanticoma from the South China Sea

One new species of free-living marine nematode Cephalanticoma brevicaudata sp. nov. from the South China Sea is described. Cephalanticoma brevicaudata sp. nov. is characterized by spindle body with relatively short tail; head with cephalic capsule; three teeth at anterior of pharynx; excretory pore opens posterior to cervical setae; three cervical setae per file; spicules arcuate, cephalate and ventrally bent proximally, and blunt distally, 1.8 a.b.d, long, without ventral ala; guberaaculun slender, simple rod, without apophyses; tubular supplement 34μm long, 2.3 a.b.d. in front of cloaca.

A Preliminary Study on the Diversity of Fish Species and Marine Fish Faunas of the South China Sea

There are 3048 species of fish occurring in the China Seas (CS), of which at least 2321 species are found in the South China Sea (SCS), belonging to 35 orders, 236 families and 822 genera. The fish species diversity is analyzed in this paper based on biogeography, biostatistics, fishing methods, etc. It is found that the regional environment, especially biological factors, plays an important role in the distribution of faunas, and there are two fish faunas in the SCS, one in the north and another in the center and south. This regional division is of value for sustainable fishery production and efficient management of fishery resources.

The bacterial diversity in surface sediment from the South China Sea

16S rDNA sequencing results from this study and literatures demonstrate that sediment bacteria in the South China Sea （SCS） were very diverse,which contained 22 of the 24 phyla of bacteria investigated from marine sediment,however,it was very imbalance among stations.So bacterial diversity from 15 samples which covered a wide range of sediment types from 20 to 3 888 m in depth was studied in DGGE （denature gradient gel electrophoresis） in this paper.The DGGE results indicate that both sediment bacterial diversity and diversity difference among stations were significant.Thirty representative and differential fingerprints among samples were recovered and sequenced,phylogenetic analysis indicates that they may belong to Proteobacteria （α-,β-,γ-,δ-,ε-）,Planctomycetes,Firmicutes,Chloroflexi,Acidobacteria,Actinobacteria,Nitrospirae,Gemmatimonadetes,candidate division WS3 and so on,of which,Gemmatimonadetes and candidate division WS3 bacteria were first detected in SCS sediment.This study also shows that bacterial diversity analysis based on DGGE was more potential than traditional 16S rDNA clone library in multiple sample analysis.

Application of wellhead suction anchor technology in the second production test of natural gas hydrates in the South China Sea

Traditional suction anchor technology is mainly used in the fields of subsea structure bearing foundations,single-point mooring systems and offshore wind power.It is characterized by providing sufficient lateral and vertical bearing capacities and lateral bending moment.The anchor structure of a traditional suction anchor structure is improved with wellhead suction anchor technology,where a central pipe is added as a channel for drilling and completion operations.To solve the technical problems of a low wellhead bearing capacity,shallow built-up depth,and limited application of conductor jetting in the second production test of natural gas hydrates(NGHs)in the South China Sea(SCS),the China Geological Survey(CGS)took the lead in independently designing and manufacturing a wellhead suction anchor,which fulfilled the requirements of the production test.This novel anchor was successfully implemented in the second production test for the first time,providing a stable wellhead foundation for the success of the second production test of NGHs in the SCS.

Hydrocarbon reserves of the South China Sea:Implications for regional energy security

The countries such as China,Vietnam,Philippines,Malaysia,Indonesia and Brunei that border South China Sea region have immense stakes in exploring and exploiting the natural resources of the region including hydrocarbon.More than the hydrocarbon reserves,the South China Sea is home to World’s high-networth trade route that brings the interests of non-geographic entities to this region.Further,the purported reserves of hydrocarbon in the region are in the orders of Persian Gulf but are not yet properly explored and the reserves recovered owing to territorial and non-claimant stakeholder’s influences/interventions.This paper is a synopsis of information on the hydrocarbon reserves of the South China Sea region,and evaluates the territorial and extra-territorial interests in the light of energy security and equitable development and utilization of natural resources from a geological perspective.We also suggest several measures for future consideration and implementation.

Why the South China Sea Arbitration Case Undermines the World Marine Order

There are various indications that the so-called Arbitral Tribunal on the South China Sea disputes arbitration has become a tool for a few Western countries such as the United States,Japan and some others outside the region to play political games with China and challenge China’s inherent rights and legitimate claims in the

Tectonic-thermal history and hydrocarbon potential of the Pearl River Mouth Basin,northern South China Sea:Insights from borehole apatite fission-track thermochronology

The Pearl River Mouth Basin(PRMB)is one of the most petroliferous basins on the northern margin of the South China Sea.Knowledge of the thermal history of the PRMB is significant for understanding its tectonic evolution and for unraveling its poorly studied source-rock maturation history.Our investigations in this study are based on apatite fission-track(AFT)thermochronology analysis of 12 cutting samples from 4 boreholes.Both AFT ages and length data suggested that the PRMB has experienced quite complicated thermal evolution.Thermal history modeling results unraveled four successive events of heating separated by three stages of cooling since the early Middle Eocene.The cooling events occurred approximately in the Late Eocene,early Oligocene,and the Late Miocene,possibly attributed to the Zhuqiong II Event,Nanhai Event,and Dongsha Event,respectively.The erosion amount during the first cooling stage is roughly estimated to be about 455-712 m,with an erosion rate of 0.08-0.12 mm/a.The second erosion-driven cooling is stronger than the first one,with an erosion amount of about 747-814 m and an erosion rate between about 0.13-0.21 mm/a.The erosion amount calculated related to the third cooling event varies from 800 m to 3419 m,which is speculative due to the possible influence of the magmatic activity.

Community structure and biodiversity of free-living marine nematodes in the northern South China Sea

A quantitative study on the community structure and biodiversity of free-living marine nematodes and their relationship with environmental factors in the northern South China Sea were carried out based on the samples collected at five stations in the deep sea （from 313 to 1 600 m） and one station in shallowwaters （87 m） during the cruise in September, 2010. Results showed that the abundance of marine nematodes ranged from 224 to 1 996 ind./（10 cm2）. A total of 69 free-living marine nematode genera, belonging to 26 families and three orders, were identified. The most dominant genera were Sabatieria, Linhystera, Aegialoalaimus and Daptonema according to SIMPER analysis. Results of CLUSTER analysis revealed four types of marine nematode community （or station groups） in the sampling area. In terms of trophic structure, non-selective deposit feeders （1B） and selective deposit feeders （1A） were the dominant trophic types with highest genera numbers and abundances, which implied that organic detritus was the main food source of marine nematodes in the northern South China Sea. The percentage of male nematode was low, ranging from 2.22% to 17.81%, while those of juvenile individuals ranged from 36.99% to 82.09%. For genera level diversity of marine nematodes, Shannon-Wiener diversity indices （H＇） ranged from 3.76 to 4.57 and had highly significant negative correlation with water depth. In general, diversity indices H＇ at the five stations in deep sea （over 200 m） were lower than that at the station in shallow waters （87 m）. BIOENV analysis showed that the most important environmental factor controlling marine nematode communities was water denth.

Observations of marine snow and fecal pellets in a sediment trap mooring in the northern South China Sea

Sediment traps are an important tool for studying the source, composition and sedimentation processes of sinking particulate matter in the ocean. An in situ observational mooring(TJ-A-1) is located in the northern South China Sea(20.05°N, 117.42°E) at a water depth of 2 100 m and equipped with two sediment traps deployed at 500 m and 1 950 m. Samples were collected at 18-day intervals, and 20 samples were obtained at both depths from May 2014 to May 2015. Large amounts of fecal matter and marine snow were collected in the lower trap. The fluxes of marine snow and fecal pellets exhibited a fluctuating decrease between May 2014 and early August 2014 and then stabilized at a relatively low level. Scanning electron microscopy observations revealed that the main components of the marine snow and fecal pellets were diatoms, coccolithophores, radiolarians, and other debris, all of which are planktons mostly produced in photic zone. Used in conjunction with the particle collection range estimates from the lower trap and data on ocean surface chlorophyll, these marine snow and fecal pellets were related to the lateral transport of deep water and not vertical migrations from overlying water column. Moreover, the source area might be southwest of Taiwan.

Microbial diversity in cold seep sediments from the northern South China Sea

South China Sea （SCS） is the largest Western Pacific marginal sea. However, microbial studies have never been performed in the cold seep sediments in the SCS. In 2004, ＂SONNE＂ 177 cruise found two cold seep areas with different water depth in the northern SCS. Haiyang 4 area, where the water depth is around 3000 m, has already been confirmed for active seeping on the seafloor, such as microbial mats, authigenic carbonate crusts and bivalves. We investigated microbial abundance and diver- sity in a 5.55-m sediment core collected from this cold seep area. An integrated approach was employed including geochemistry and 16S rRNA gene phylogenetic analyses. Here, we show that microbial abun- dance and diversity along with geochemistry profiles of the sediment core revealed a coupled reaction between sulphate reduction and methane oxidation. Acridine orange direct count results showed that microbial abundance ranges from 105 to 106 cells/g sediment （wet weight）. The depth-related variation of the abundance showed the same trend as the methane concentration profile. Phylogenetic analysis indicated the presence of sulphate-reducing bacteria and anaerobic methane-oxidizing archaea. The diver- sity was much higher at the surface, but decreased sharply with depth in response to changes in the geochemical conditions of the sediments, such as methane, sulphate concentration and total organic carbon. Marine Benthic Group B, Chloroflexi and JS1 were predominant phylotypes of the archaeal and bacterial libraries, respectively.

Cenozoic Sea-land Transition and its Petroleum Geological Significance in the Northern South China Sea

The process of Cenozoic sea-land changes in the northern South China Sea(SCS)controlled the sedimentary filling pattern and played an important role in the petroleum geological characteristics of the northern marginal sedimentary basins.Under the control of the opening process of the SCS,the northern SCS Cenozoic transgression generally showed the characteristics of early in the east and late in the west,and early in the south and late in the north.The initial transgression occurred in the Eocene in the Taixinan Basin(TXNB)of the eastern SCS,while the transgression occurred until the Pliocene in the Yinggehai Basin(YGHB)of the western SCS.International Ocean Discovery Program(IODP)expeditions(Expeditions 367/368)revealed that the initial transgression of the SCS basin occurred at approximately 34 Ma,which was the initial opening time of the SCS.The period of drastic changes in the sedimentary environment caused by large-scale transgression corresponded to the opening time of the southwestern subbasin(approximately 23 Ma),which also represented the peak of the spreading of the SCS.The sea-land transition process controls the distribution of alternating continent-marine facies,marine facies source rocks and reservoirs in the basins.The marine facies source rocks of the basins in the northern SCS have a trend of gradually becoming younger from east to west,which is consistent with the regional process of gradual transgression from east to west.Regional sea-level changes were comprehensively influenced by SCS opening and global sea-level changes.These processes led to the early development in the east and south and late development in the west and north for the carbonate platform in the SCS.Carbonate platforms form another type of"selfgenerating and self-accumulating"oil-gas reservoir in the northern SCS.The sea-land transition controlled the depositional filling patterns of different basins and laid the foundation of marine deposits for oil and gas resources.The source-reservoircap assemblage in the northern SCS was controlled horizontally by provenance supply and sedimentary environmental changes caused by sea-land transition and vertically by the tectonic evolution of the SCS and regional sea-level changes.

Assessment of natural gas hydrate reservoirs at Site GMGS3-W19 in the Shenhu area,South China Sea based on various well logs

To obtain the characteristics of the gas hydrate reservoirs at GMGS3-W19,extensive geophysical logging data and cores were analyzed to assess the reservoir properties.Sediment porosities were estimated from density,neutron,and nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR)logs.Both the resistivity and NMR logs were used to calculate gas hydrate saturations,the Simandoux model was employed to eliminate the effects of high clay content determined based on the ECS and core data.The density porosity was closely in agreement with the core-derived porosity,and the neutron porosity was higher while the NMR porosity was lower than the density porosity of sediments without hydrates.The resistivity log has higher vertical resolution than the NMR log and thus is more favorable for assessing gas hydrate saturation with strong heterogeneity.For the gas hydrate reservoirs at GMGS3-W19,the porosity,gas hydrate saturation and free gas saturation was 52.7%,42.7%and 10%,on average,respectively.The various logs provide different methods for the comprehensive evaluation of hydrate reservoir,which supports the selection of candidate site for gas hydrate production testing.

Response of Spatio-temporal Distribution of Fishery Resources to Mairne Environment in the Northern South China Sea

[Objective] The paper was to investigate the spatio-temporal distribution of fishery resources in the northern South China Sea and to provide reference for scientific evaluation and effective protection of fishery resources in the northern South China Sea. [Methods] Based on monitoring data and satellite remote sensing data [including Sea Surface Temperature(SST), Chlorophyll a concentration(Chl a) and Sea Surface Wind(SSW)] in winter(January to February) and summer(August to September) in the northern South China Sea, the relationship between spatio-temporal distribution of fishery resources and marine environment was investigated by using Generalized Linear Models(GLM), fishing ground gravity and correlation analysis. [Results] The suitable SST and Chl a of light falling-net fishing ground in winter were 17-23°C and 0.2-0.6 mg/m3, respectively. The suitable SST and Chl a in summer were approximately 28°C and 0.2-1.0 mg/m3. Standardized Catch Per Unit Effort(SCPUE) was higher in summer(2-4) and lower in winter(1-3). From winter to summer, the fishing ground gravity migrated to the east about 1 °E. [Conclusion] The spatio-temporal distribution of fishery resources is related to eastern Hainan-western Guangdong upwelling and the coastal flow, caused by the monsoon in the northern South China Sea, and the major catch species of light falling-net.

Identification of functionally active aerobic methanotrophs and their methane oxidation potential in sediments from the Shenhu Area,South China Sea

Large amounts of gas hydrate are distributed in the northern slope of the South China Sea,which is a potential threat of methane leakage.Aerobic methane oxidation by methanotrophs,significant methane biotransformation that occurs in sediment surface and water column,can effectively reduce atmospheric emission of hydrate-decomposed methane.To identify active aerobic methanotrophs and their methane oxidation potential in sediments from the Shenhu Area in the South China Sea,multi-day enrichment incubations were conducted in this study.The results show that the methane oxidation rates in the studied sediments were 2.03‒2.36μmol/gdw/d,which were higher than those obtained by sediment incubations from other areas in marine ecosystems.Thus the authors suspect that the methane oxidation potential of methanotrophs was relatively higher in sediments from the Shenhu Area.After the incubations family Methylococcaea(type I methanotrophs)mainly consisted of genus Methylobacter and Methylococcaea_Other were predominant with an increased proportion of 70.3%,whereas Methylocaldum decreased simultaneously in the incubated sediments.Collectively,this study may help to gain a better understanding of the methane biotransformation in the Shenhu Area.

Paleogene marine deposition records of rifting and breakup of the South China Sea:An overview

A compilation of available marine deposition data from offshore S-SE China reveals evidence of rifting and breakup of the South China Sea(SCS) during the Paleogene. Marine deposition started earlier in the Paleocene in the East China Sea(ECS)-Taiwan region before expanding southwestward into the SCS region in the middle Eocene. Our data indicate the existence of an elongated Paleogene China Sea in these areas stretching along the northeasterly structural belts, probably as part of the marginal western paleo-Pacific. The southwestward shift of marine influence in the middle Eocene was responding to a period of intensive rifting and subsidence in the SCS region, while the sea in the ECS-Taiwan region started to shrink and shoal after the late Eocene, likely associated with local breakup and initial spreading in the Taiwan-Taixinan Basin area. The accumulation of hemipelagic sediments at ODP 1148 and IODP U1435 from near the continent-ocean boundary and at many other shelf-slope sites was in response to a large-scale breakup 34 to 33 Ma ago, subsequently leading to the birth of the SCS in the Oligocene.

South China Sea-A Conflict-Prone Place?

A military escalation between China and the United States in the South China Sea(SCS)is staged which resembles the Cold War crisis in Europe in the 1950’s and 1960’s.The PRC has reclaimed and fortified its holdings in the SCS since 2013;in 2017,the US has declared an“Indo-Pacific Strategy”to contain China.Due to differences of interest of the relevant countries,it will be difficult to create an effective united front against China in the near future.It remains to be seen whether armed conflict between China and the US be avoided.