The relationship between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.

Low Oil Prices Drive up China's Crude Oil Imports

China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in the first half of 2016 despite an economic slowdown,and analysts largely attributed the surge to low prices,not strategic maneuvering.The country imported 186.5 million tons of crude oil in the first half of the year,23.15 million

Prospect Analysis of the United States' Crude Oil Exports to the Asia-Pacific Region

At the end of 2015, the United States lifted a 40-year ban on crude oil exports, which has far-reaching implications for the global crude oil market and crude oil trade patterns. Since the release of crude oil exports, with the recovery of crude oil production and improved export infrastructure in the United States, U.S. crude oil exports have been growing rapidly, with an average of about one million barrels/day in 2017, making the U.S one of the major global crude oil exporters. Currently, the AsiaPacific region has replaced North America as the first major destination for U.S. crude oil exports. In light of future trends in the oil refining industry of the Asia-Pacific region, it will usher in a new wave of refinery operations around 2020 and crude oil imports will continue to grow rapidly. The American region, represented by the United States, will replace West Africa as the second largest source of crude oil imports to the Asia-Pacific region, and that energy trade cooperation between the Asia-Pacific region and the United States will continue to grow. In particular, for China, the United States will become an important source of crude oil imports for our country in the future, and the two countries will shift from the past of energy competition to energy cooperation. Sino-US energy trade will play a more active role in economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

谁是驱动中国原油期货价格波动的关键信息?

本文首次对影响中国原油期货价格波动的驱动因素进行了量化分析.运用广义动态因子模型,结合互联网数据,为中国原油期货价格构造了六类预测因子:供需预测因子、市场金融化预测因子、汇率市场信息预测因子、商品市场预测因子、全球宏观经济预测因子以及事件预测因子.基于混频GARCH-MIDAS模型,本文发现上述六类因子能显著改善对原油价格波动的预测精度.同时,基于MCS检验结果,揭示出在不同时间尺度下,驱动中国原油价格波动的信息存在明显差异性,即在短期和中期预测中事件预测因子起主导作用,而供需因子则是在长期主导中国原油价格波动的关键因素.综上,本研究为国内原油市场参与者、政策制定者及市场监管者把握未来市场信息提供了分析工具和参考依据.

The Spatial Optimization of Eastern China's Crude Oil Pipeline Network upon Cost Minimum

Eastern China＇s crude oil pipeline network is of the largest scale and freight volume in China.Here,we analyze 37 oil pipelines and one railway（38 oil flow channels）,20 oil fields with output of over a million tons of crude oil,and 32 refineries each of which refine over a million tons of crude oil.We construct a supply and demand balance sheet of oil sources and sinks by considering the transportation cost variance of variant pipeline diameters to determine the spatial optimization of Eastern China＇s pipeline network.In 2009,the optimal cost of this network was 34.5% lower than the total actual cost,suggesting that oil flow is overall inefficient and there is huge potential to improve flow efficiency.Within Eastern China,the oil flow of the Northeast network was relatively better than others,but the flow in Northern China is inefficient because all pipelines are underload or noload,and there were similar conditions in the Huanghuai region.We assumed no difference in pipeline transport speed,compared to rail or road transportation,thus transportation distance,rather than time,is the main influential factor under the definite transporting cost of variant pipeline diameters.

境内外原油期货价格动态关联性研究——兼论中国原油期货的市场影响力

基于DCC-GARCH模型和TVP-VAR-SV模型,考察上海原油期货与境外代表性原油期货价格之间的动态关联性。结果表明:境内外原油期货间的价格关联性具有显著的非对称性和时变特征。与新型冠状病毒感染暴发前相比,暴发后境内油价与境外油价间的关联性急剧上升,且前者对后者的冲击影响明显大于后者对前者的冲击影响;在此作用下,上海原油对阿曼原油的风险溢出具有长期性和持续性,而新型冠状病毒感染引致的上海原油与WTI和Brent原油间的风险溢出主要体现在短期、影响呈暂时性;境内外油价的互动影响在新型冠状病毒感染流行期大于暴发初期;总体而言,上海原油期货已具备相当的区域定价能力与一定的国际影响力,价格独立性初显,但其稳定性和抗风险能力还有待提升。

中国原油期货价格的有关金融影响因素研究

通过构建TVP-VAR模型,研究股票指数、商品指数、黄金与美元指数对中国原油期货价格的时变影响。研究表明,在石油价格“金融化”趋势下,中国原油期货市场与其他金融市场的联系在短期内变得更加紧密,中长期影响不显著;金融因素对中国原油期货价格的冲击存在时变特征,尤其是在极端情况下,冲击会被进一步放大;不同金融因素对中国原油期货价格变动的解释力度不一,其中股票指数解释力最强,美元指数解释力最弱。

Coherence,Connectedness,Dynamic Linkages Among Oil and China's Sectoral Commodities with Portfolio Implications

This paper investigates the time-frequency dependence,return and volatility connectedness,dynamic linkages,and portfolio diversification gains among oil and China’s sectoral commodities,namely,Petrochemicals(CIFI),Grains(CRFI),Energy(ENFI),Non-ferrous metals(NFFI),Oil&Fats(OOFI),and Softs(SOFI),utilizing a proposed research framework that contains the wavelet coherence,novel TVP-VAR based connectedness,and the cDCC-,DECO-FIAPARCH(1,d,1)model.The empirical results demonstrate that global oil market exhibits a relatively higher(lower)coherence with ENFI,NFFI,and OOFI(CRFI)on the long-term time horizon and the oil market leads China’s sectoral commodities during most sample periods.The crude oil market transmits significant connectedness to China’s sectoral commodities,especially the energy commodity sector(ENFI).The dynamic return and volatility total spillovers tend to intensify and exhibit significant fluctuations during the GFC and the oil price collapse.Further,the time-varying linkages among oil and China’s sectoral commodities are positive and fluctuant,mainly at a relatively low level.The dynamic return and volatility connectedness,multi-view linkages,optimal portfolio weights,and hedging ratios display significant time-varying features.The oil-commodity nexus offers diversification benefits and the optimal-weighted portfolio presents the best variance and downside risk reduction performance.Furthermore,risk management effectiveness is market-condition-dependent and heterogeneous across different commodity sectors and sub-samples.This paper can not only help investors and market regulators to capture the complex interconnectedness and risk transmission trajectory among oil and China’s sectoral commodities but also benefits for investors and portfolio managers to construct optimal portfolios and hedging strategies.

原油期货套期保值对石油企业经营绩效的影响——基于中美股市数据

套期保值具有降低企业经营绩效波动、稳定企业收益的优点,但目前未受到我国石油企业重视。选取在我国A股上市的47家国内石油企业与在美股上市的31家欧美主要石油企业作为对象,使用多元线性回归模型对比分析2007—2016年间中外石油企业套期保值参与度对企业经营绩效的影响差异。研究发现:在美国上市的欧美主要石油企业能够充分利用原油期货套期保值功能安排生产、对冲风险,而我国石油企业是否参与原油套期保值与企业经营绩效无明显关联。导致中国和欧美的石油企业利用原油套期保值功能差异的主要原因在于我国石油企业的套期保值参与度较低、效果较差。借鉴欧美石油企业积极利用期货套期保值的经验,我国石油企业在未来的经营管理中需要高度重视和充分发挥原油期货的套期保值功能。

中国原油期货与国际基准原油间信息传导研究

中国原油期货的正式推出对我国争取原油定价话语权具有关键性意义,正确认识中国原油期货在国际市场中所处的地位,有助于我国原油期货市场稳定发展。采用信息溢出指数构建方法,对中国原油期货与国际原油期货日收益率之间的静态和动态信息传导情况进行研究,结果显示:原油期货系统内日收益率之间存在高度信息整合,且系统内依旧以WTI原油期货和Brent原油期货为主导,而Oman原油期货和中国原油期货表现为信息的净接收者;短期内,中国原油期货的影响力虽逐步提升,但仍然敏感于国际原油期货的信息冲击。

瓜达尔港通航后的中国进口原油海运路径选择研究

为探究瓜达尔港对中国进口原油海上运输的影响,本文基于连通可靠性和运输成本,建立了瓜达尔港通航后的中国进口原油海运路径选择的不确定双目标规划模型。研究表明运输成本和连通可靠性的不同权衡会带来不同的路径选择,瓜达尔港的运营风险和接卸能力也会影响路径选择,进而提出了提升瓜达尔港在原油运输中作用的措施建议。