东北地区土地覆被格局变化模拟:基于CLUE-S和Markov-CA模型的对比分析

研究以遥感解译的东北地区2000年、2010年、2015年的土地覆被变化为基础,充分考虑自然和社会因素对土地覆被变化的影响,分别通过CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型对东北地区2015年和2030年土地覆被格局进行模拟,研究结果表明:通过与遥感解译的2015年实际土地覆被类型数据对比验证,CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型模拟结果的总体Kappa指数分别为0.9700和0.9649,结果表明2种模型的模拟结果较为理想,CLUE-S模型的模拟精度较Markov-CA模型更高。2015—2030年东北地区草地、耕地、湿地、其他用地和水体面积呈现下降趋势,林地、人工表面面积呈现增加趋势,人地关系越发紧张。东北地区作为生态环境相对脆弱的区域需警惕不可持续的土地覆被变化,需权衡生态保护、粮食增加与基础设施建设的用地需求和协调发展。

On the Government's Responsibility in China's Rural Land Transfer

There is an urgent need for China's rural land transfer in order to develop modern agriculture,ensure food security,transfer rural population,and accelerate industrialization and urbanization.At present,there is still disordered transfer of rural land in China,making the interests of the transferors and transferees difficult to be effectively guaranteed;there is inefficient transfer,leading to decline in actual agricultural production level after transfer;there is jobless transfer,leading to difficult placement for rural surplus labor after transfer,seriously restricting rural land transfer.Therefore,the Chinese government's legal responsibility,economic responsibility and social responsibility in rural land transfer should be further strengthened.

On the Development of China's Land Oil Industry

Mr. Wang Tao, President of the China National Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, briefed this reporter on his thoughts on the development of China’s land oil industry. From the present to the turn of the century, said Wang Tao, is a critical period in the reform and development of the land oil industry in China. Our basic thoughts on the development of China’s land oil industry from now on are: to blaze a new trail of better commercial efficiency and rapid development by making economic efficiency upgrading the aim, and oil and gas production and operation the

Status of China's Land Resources in 2013

On 22nd April 2014,with the approach of the 45th World Earth Day,the Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources announced the status of China＇s land resources in 2013,putting forward the implementation of strict farmland protection measures to ensure the 1.8 billion acres of arable land.This laid a solid foundation for achieving a ＂ten even increase＂ of food production and ensuring China＇s food security.

Study on the Current Situation of Urban Integration of Aboveground Space and Underground Space:Under the Background of China’s Land Spatial Planning

Urban underground public space has a synergistic effect with its surrounding urban aboveground functions or facilities,which reflects the complementarity between underground functions and urban functions.The research analyses the degree of integration through the case study of urban aboveground space and underground space in China.The research method of this paper will give different evaluation criteria to public transport and public space and the influencing factors of space integration.The indicators of public transport include the number of subway lines and underground parking spaces.The evaluation standard of public space is the area of underground space and the number of floors of underground space.The subway entrance and exits are selected as the evaluation index for the aboveground and underground transition space.Through the specific analysis of 7 selected cases,it provides arguments for the research.The average rent in the case is taken as the dependent variable.Through the regression model,the influencing factors of the integration of aboveground and underground space are determined.The purpose of the study is to explore the influencing factors of the integration of aboveground space and underground space,and how to optimize the integration of aboveground and underground space.

The Human Rights Legislation Practices of the Communist Party of China During the War of Liberation

During the War of Liberation,the liberated areas,under the leadership of the Communist Party of China,kept deepening and developing the concepts and ideas of protecting human rights,promulgated a series of human rights laws and related administrative programs,and put them into practice.The contents included not only the political rights of citizens but also their economic,social,and cultural rights,with emphasis on the protection of the rights to subsistence and development.The human rights legislation in the liberated areas has a wartime and class-based nature due to its social environment.It reflects the transition of the Communist Party of China from a revolutionary party to a ruling party on the historical stage.It played an important role in directing,advancing,and promoting the progress of democracy and the rule of law at that time and accumulated experience for the human rights legislation after the founding of the People’s Republic of China.History proves that the Communist Party of China has always been a political party dedicated to fighting for the human rights of the Chinese people,and only the Communist Party of China can lead China’s human rights development to a deeper level.

基于CLUE-S和Dinamica EGO模型的土地利用变化及驱动力分析

为了探究中国土地利用变化驱动机制和未来土地利用状况,该文利用中国科学院资源环境科学数据库中的2000年和2005年土地利用数据,结合区域土地利用变化与影响模型CLUE-S(the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent)和面向地理过程动态环境模型Dinamica EGO(environment for geoprocessing objects)模拟2000-2020年中国土地利用状况,并借助于Logistic回归结果和贝叶斯估计结果,探讨了中国2000-2005年土地利用适宜性和土地利用变化的驱动力空间特征。以2005年土地利用数据对模拟结果进行验证表明,CLUE-S模型和Dinamica EGO模型在LUCC预测上与实际结果一致性较好,并且CLUE-S模型在预测总体精度上优于Dinamica EGO模型。但在土地利用变化类型的数量预测上,Dinamica EGO模型的Markov过程可以准确预测,并且Dinamica EGO模拟的土地利用变化在空间分布上与经验结果较一致。从2020年中国土地利用预测结果来看,耕地、林地、水域和建设用地将会增加,草地会出现大面积的缩减,未利用地在CLUE-S模型预测中出现增加,而在Dinamica EGO模型中减少。该文可为国土资源规划和耕地资源保护政策的制定提供科学依据。

东北黑土区土地利用碳排放演变及预测研究

以东北黑土区土地利用碳排放为研究对象,基于2000~2020年土地利用和能源消耗数据,分析不同土地利用类型碳排放量的变化情况并预测区域碳排放。结果表明,2000~2020年东北黑土区土地利用碳排放量持续增加,从2000年152.44×10^(4)t到2020年253.22×10^(4)t,年变化趋势明显。碳排放方面,耕地与土地利用碳排放的关联度最高是最主要的碳源,占总碳源的90%左右;碳吸收方面,林地对碳汇的贡献率最大,占总碳汇的96%以上。东北黑土区的用地类型与碳排放间的关联度依次为耕地>林地>建设用地>未利用地>草地>水域。预计2030年净碳排放量将达到300.62×10^(4)t。

中国陆地边境护边员职业化问题探析

从技能标准、制度化管理、劳动关系契约、行为规范及培训等职业化标准来看,中国陆地边境护边员半职业化趋势明显。它具体表现在定期发放补贴、规范的职业化流程、严格的管理制度、每月定期执勤、日常农牧商生计与巡边相结合等方面。半职业化的原因有:边民利用职业便利做好日常戍边工作是其历史背景;工作性质属于辅协边防军人和移民警察工作是其前提条件;通过职业化措施有效遏制边境村庄牧场空巢化是其直接动因。为了更好地发挥护边员在强边固防与连通周边国家的作用,我们需要因地制宜改善边境基础设施、统一护边员名称、执勤与补贴精准体现“半职业化”标准、职业管理细致化、职业培训精准化,并鼓励护边员“薪火相传”,从而充分发挥护边员在边境管控与畅通的优势。

2000—2020年我国西南地区植被NEP时空变化及其驱动因素的相对贡献

西南地区作为我国重要的生态安全屏障,探究其植被净生态系统生产力(net ecosystem productivity,NEP)的时空演变规律对该地区乃至我国的可持续发展都具有重要意义.基于MODIS数据、气象数据、DEM数据和土地利用数据等,首先,利用改进的Carnegie Ames Stanford Approach(CASA)模型和土壤微生物呼吸方程,估算2000—2020年我国西南地区植被NEP;其次,结合Theil-Sen Median趋势分析、偏相关分析和复相关分析等方法,研究西南地区植被NEP时空变化及其对气候变化和土地利用变化的响应机制;最后,利用基于情境分析的相对贡献分析法,定量评估气候变化和土地利用变化对西南地区植被NEP变化的相对贡献.结果表明:时间上,2000—2020年我国西南地区及其五省份(云南省、贵州省、四川省、重庆市和西藏自治区)生态系统植被NEP均表现为上升趋势,其中,西南地区植被NEP上升速率为4.74 g/(m^(2)·a).空间上,西南地区及其五省份植被NEP呈上升趋势的面积均大于呈下降趋势的面积,其中,西南地区植被NEP呈极显著上升的面积占45.41%,主要分布在云南省南部、贵州省西部、四川省东部和重庆市南部.西南地区植被NEP与降水量的偏相关系数平均值为0.13,大于其与气温和太阳辐射的偏相关系数平均值,由此可知,降水量对西南地区植被NEP增长的促进作用大于气温和太阳辐射.西南地区植被NEP变化受气候变化影响的区域中,受气温、降水量、太阳辐射弱驱动的区域最大,占研究区总面积的23.63%.2000—2020年西南地区土地利用变化使得植被NEP总量增加了96.64 Tg,其中,草地转化为林地使得植被NEP增加的总量最大.在碳汇区,各土地利用类型中土地利用变化对建设用地植被NEP变化的贡献率最大,为69.38%;在碳源区,各土地利用类型中气候变化对耕地的植被NEP变化的贡献率最大,为50.08%.研究显示,2000—2020年我国西南地区及其五省份的生态系统整体均表现为碳汇,且碳汇功能呈增强趋势,气候变化和土地利用变化共同影响着西南地区的碳汇功能.

Carbonate rock dissolution rates in different landuses and their carbon sink effect

Research on karst processes is important for the determination of their carbon sink potential,as is research into terrestrial ecosystems in karst areas.Solutional denudation rates of soils from three karst spring watersheds supporting different land uses were studied.Solution rates showed a distinct pattern based on land use,with a generally higher rate being recorded in forest use soil.The mean values for tablet dissolution from the cultivated land,shrublands,secondary forest,grassland and primary forest were 4.02,7.0,40.0,20.0,63.5 t km-2 a-1 respectively.Changes in vegetation patterns could improve the size of karst carbon sinks;for example,in this study the carbon sink was 3 times higher in primary forest than in secondary forest soil and 9 times higher than under shrubland,equating to an increase from 5.71-7.02 to 24.86-26.17 t km-2 a-1 from cultivated land or shrub to secondary forest and to primary forest,respectively.

The effect of environmental factors on spatial variability in land use change in the high-sediment region of China＇s Loess Plateau

In areas with topographic heterogeneity, land use change is spatially variable and influenced by climate, soil properties, and topography. To better understand this variability in the high-sediment region of the Loess Plateau in which soil loss is most severe and sediment diameter is larger than in other regions of the plateau, this study builds some indicators to identify the characteristics of land use change and then analyze the spatial variability as it is affected by climate, soil property, and topography. We build two indicators, a land use change intensity index and a vegetation change index, to characterize the intensity of land use change, and the degree of vegetation restoration, respectively. Based on a subsection mean method, the two indicators are then used to assess the spatial variability of land use change affected by climatic, edaphic, and topographic elements. The results indicate that： 1） Land use changed significantly in the period 1998-2010. The total area experiencing land use change was 42,302 km2, accounting for 22.57%of the study area. High-coverage grassland, other woodland, and forest increased significantly, while low-coverage grassland and farmland decreased in 2010 compared with 1998.2） Land use change occurred primarily west of the Yellow River, between 35 and 38 degrees north latitude. The four transformation types, including （a） low-coverage grassland to medium-coverage grassland, （b） medium-coverage grassland to high-coverage grassland, （c） farmland to other woodland, and （d） farmland to medium-coverage grassland, were the primary types of land use change, together constituting 60% of the area experiencing land use change. 3） The spatial variability of land use change was significantly affected by properties of dryness/wetness, soil conditions and slope gradient. In general, land use changed dramatically in semi-arid regions, remained relatively stable in arid regions, changed significantly in clay-rich soil, remained relatively stable in clay-poor soil, changed dramatically in steeper slopes, and remained relatively stable in tablelands and low-lying regions. The increase in vegetation coincided with increasing changes in land use for each physical element. These findings allow for an evaluation of the effect of the Grain to Green Program, and are applicable to the design of soil and water conservation projects on the Loess Plateau of China.

Differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of ecological land rent among provinces in China

Ecological land rent is the excess profit produced by resource scarcity, and is also an important indicator for measuring the social and economic effects of resource scarcity. This paper, by calculating the respective ecological land rents of all the provinces in China for the years 2002 and 2007, and with the assistance of the software programs ArcGIS and GeoDA, analyzes the spatial differentiation characteristics of ecological land rent; then, the influencing factors of ecological land rent differentiation among the provinces are examined using the methods of traditional regression and spatial correlation analysis. The following results were obtained： First, ecological land rent per unit of output in China shows stable dis- tribution characteristics of being low in the southwestern and northeastern provinces, and high in Hebei and Henan provinces. There is also an increasing tendency in the central and western provinces, and a decreasing one in the eastern provinces. In general, the spatial distribution of ecological land rent per unit of output in China is quite scattered. Second, the total ecological land rent shows significant spatial aggregation characteristics, in particular the provinces in China possessing high total amounts of ecological land rent tend to be adjacent to one another, as do those with low total amounts, and the spatial difference characteristics of the eastern, central and western provinces are distinguished. The Bohai Rim, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta are shown to be highly clustering regions of total ecological land rent, while the western provinces have very low ecological land rent in terms of total amount. Third, population distribution, economic level and industrial structure were all im- portant influencing factors influencing ecological land rent differentiation among provinces in China. Furthermore, population density, urbanization level, economic density, per capita consumption level and GDP per capita were all shown to be positively related to total eco- logical land rent, which indicates that spatial clustering exists between ecological land rent and these factors. However, there was also a negative correlation between ecological land rent and agricultural output percentage, indicating that spatial scattering exists between ecological land rent and agricultural output percentage.

China’s Economy:Soft or Hard Landing?

A global economic recession, ignited by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, might be unavoidable in the near future. In the meantime, a significant slowdown in China’s economic growth in the third quarter is posing daunting challenges to the government’s macro-control policies. Ha Jiming, Chief Economist at China International Capital Corp. (CICC), recently wrote an article in the 21st Century Business Herald about what he believes to be the root cause of China’s economic slowdown and how the government can revive the economy. Excerpts follow.

The Prospect for China's Paid Land Use

Since this year China’s National People’s Congress has made revisions in the articles on land use right in China’sConstitution,the State Council has issued and implemented provisional regulations on levying urban land use tax.Allthis has,both in the constitution and in law,put an end to the old system of using urban land free of charge with notime limit and signifies the beginning of a new era of paid urban land use system will undergo a rather longtransitional period,its significance has already been detected.

Legal Protection from Physical Form to Form of Value: On the Transformation of China's Land Right System

The transformation of China’S land rightsystem comprises the following threeperiods:(1)The planned economy period(1949.1978).Public land ownership

中国耕地非农化趋势及其对碳收支影响的模拟

伴随快速工业化、城镇化进程,中国耕地非农化不断加快,由此带来碳排放迅速增加、生态环境和温室效应不断恶化。鉴于此,该文将耕地非农化与碳收支纳入统一框架,运用系统动力学方法模拟1996-2020年间耕地非农化带来的碳收支盈亏量。结果表明:1)整体分析判断,中国耕地非农化处于递增趋势且空间分布主要集中在东部,并呈现耕地规模递减、建设用地递增状态。2)模拟结果显示,1996-2020年全国耕地由1.293×108hm2减少到1.204×108hm2,建设用地从2.407×107 hm2增加到3.073×107 hm2,并且耕地非农化碳汇量由7.90×108t减少到7.48×108 t,碳源量从9.34×109t增加到1.17×1010 t。3)区域比较发现,全国耕地非农化碳收支表现为碳源且总体上呈递增趋势,并且2020年东部地区碳支出量最大为5.029×109 t,西部次之为2.261×109 t,中部略小于西部为2.216×109 t,东北地区最小为1.084×109 t。

中国首都圈土地资源综合承载力及空间优化格局

通过构建评价指标体系对京津冀首都圈土地资源综合承载力及其空间格局进行评价分析,研究结论为:京津冀首都圈土地利用粗放,土地资源集约化利用有较大潜力;土地资源综合承载力水平较低,区域差异明显;土地资源的社会承载力较高,开发建设承载力最低;经济社会承载力与开发建设、生态环境承载力不相一致;山区土地资源开发建设承载力有一定开发潜力。为了提升首都圈土地资源综合承载力,应针对不同区域特征进行空间优化。空间优化格局为北部生态屏障建设区、中部都市功能优化区、东部人口产业沿海集聚区、南部绿色空间优化区。首都圈发展应针对空间格局特征,分区配套土地利用政策,强化土地节约集约利用,改善生态环境质量,促进土地利用的区域协调与合作,从整体上提升土地资源综合承载力。

中国“数字国土”工程的方法论研究

“数字国土”是新世纪的一项宏伟工程 ,也是对“数字地球”和“数字中国”战略计划的响应 ,其核心问题是分布式点源空间数据库和属性数据库建设 .分布式主题数据库建模、“多S”结合与集成、三级网络结构、信息标准化体系、海量数据入库、计算机辅助设计等关键技术的攻克 ,是实现区域地质调查与矿产资源勘查信息化的前提 ,而信息安全是“数字国土”的保障 .作为合理而完善的解决方案 ,除了制定总体规划和系统结构外 ,还应当制定切实可行的对策和实施步骤 .这需要借鉴国际上国土资源信息系统建设和地球信息科学方向发展的最新成果 ,并根据我国国土资源勘查与管理的特殊布局 。