Low Oil Prices Drive up China's Crude Oil Imports

China’s crude oil imports hit a record high in the first half of 2016 despite an economic slowdown,and analysts largely attributed the surge to low prices,not strategic maneuvering.The country imported 186.5 million tons of crude oil in the first half of the year,23.15 million

The relationship between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.

Prospect Analysis of the United States' Crude Oil Exports to the Asia-Pacific Region

At the end of 2015, the United States lifted a 40-year ban on crude oil exports, which has far-reaching implications for the global crude oil market and crude oil trade patterns. Since the release of crude oil exports, with the recovery of crude oil production and improved export infrastructure in the United States, U.S. crude oil exports have been growing rapidly, with an average of about one million barrels/day in 2017, making the U.S one of the major global crude oil exporters. Currently, the AsiaPacific region has replaced North America as the first major destination for U.S. crude oil exports. In light of future trends in the oil refining industry of the Asia-Pacific region, it will usher in a new wave of refinery operations around 2020 and crude oil imports will continue to grow rapidly. The American region, represented by the United States, will replace West Africa as the second largest source of crude oil imports to the Asia-Pacific region, and that energy trade cooperation between the Asia-Pacific region and the United States will continue to grow. In particular, for China, the United States will become an important source of crude oil imports for our country in the future, and the two countries will shift from the past of energy competition to energy cooperation. Sino-US energy trade will play a more active role in economic and trade cooperation between the two countries.

Oil Import and Export in China

Domestic economic growth slowed down and supply exceeded demand in oil market in 2015, so the growth of refineries＂ processing volume was limited. Nevertheless, the gradual decontrol of market and the storage requirement under low oil price, crude oil imports hit a record high of 335.5 million tons, with the growth rate approximating 9%. Refined oil exports soared and imports decreased, which made China become a net refined oil exporter for the first time for 24 years, and net imports reached 6.22 million tons. Robust requirement on chemical raw materials propelled imported liquefied petroleum gas market to go on expanding. Imports exceeded 12 ,zillion tons in 2015, thus China leaped into the world＇s largest liquefied petroleum gas importer. In 2016, oil consumption growth would be kept at lower level. However, China would further decontrol crude oil import and refined oil export permits and put incremental storage capacity, into use. Therefore, crude oil imports would continue to rise up, and refined oil exports may hit a new historic high. hnported liquefied petroleum gas market will enter into a stage of stable growth after two years rapid development.

The Spatial Optimization of Eastern China's Crude Oil Pipeline Network upon Cost Minimum

Eastern China＇s crude oil pipeline network is of the largest scale and freight volume in China.Here,we analyze 37 oil pipelines and one railway（38 oil flow channels）,20 oil fields with output of over a million tons of crude oil,and 32 refineries each of which refine over a million tons of crude oil.We construct a supply and demand balance sheet of oil sources and sinks by considering the transportation cost variance of variant pipeline diameters to determine the spatial optimization of Eastern China＇s pipeline network.In 2009,the optimal cost of this network was 34.5% lower than the total actual cost,suggesting that oil flow is overall inefficient and there is huge potential to improve flow efficiency.Within Eastern China,the oil flow of the Northeast network was relatively better than others,but the flow in Northern China is inefficient because all pipelines are underload or noload,and there were similar conditions in the Huanghuai region.We assumed no difference in pipeline transport speed,compared to rail or road transportation,thus transportation distance,rather than time,is the main influential factor under the definite transporting cost of variant pipeline diameters.

Coherence,Connectedness,Dynamic Linkages Among Oil and China's Sectoral Commodities with Portfolio Implications

This paper investigates the time-frequency dependence,return and volatility connectedness,dynamic linkages,and portfolio diversification gains among oil and China’s sectoral commodities,namely,Petrochemicals(CIFI),Grains(CRFI),Energy(ENFI),Non-ferrous metals(NFFI),Oil&Fats(OOFI),and Softs(SOFI),utilizing a proposed research framework that contains the wavelet coherence,novel TVP-VAR based connectedness,and the cDCC-,DECO-FIAPARCH(1,d,1)model.The empirical results demonstrate that global oil market exhibits a relatively higher(lower)coherence with ENFI,NFFI,and OOFI(CRFI)on the long-term time horizon and the oil market leads China’s sectoral commodities during most sample periods.The crude oil market transmits significant connectedness to China’s sectoral commodities,especially the energy commodity sector(ENFI).The dynamic return and volatility total spillovers tend to intensify and exhibit significant fluctuations during the GFC and the oil price collapse.Further,the time-varying linkages among oil and China’s sectoral commodities are positive and fluctuant,mainly at a relatively low level.The dynamic return and volatility connectedness,multi-view linkages,optimal portfolio weights,and hedging ratios display significant time-varying features.The oil-commodity nexus offers diversification benefits and the optimal-weighted portfolio presents the best variance and downside risk reduction performance.Furthermore,risk management effectiveness is market-condition-dependent and heterogeneous across different commodity sectors and sub-samples.This paper can not only help investors and market regulators to capture the complex interconnectedness and risk transmission trajectory among oil and China’s sectoral commodities but also benefits for investors and portfolio managers to construct optimal portfolios and hedging strategies.

基于复杂网络理论的中美原油进口空间格局演进比较

依据中美原油进口源地数据,运用网络分析法,比较了中美原油进口贸易空间结构的演化轨迹与特征。研究表明,相同的认知活动使两国的原油进口策略取向变得一致。1993年后,美中原油进口来源国数量有着几乎相同的增长趋势;但美国原油进口权重基本趋于平稳,中国原油进口权重基本处于上升通道中,同时中美贸易联系不仅存在强度上的差异,分区域的强度次序也存在重大差异;美国原油进口空间格局的权重熵经历了由高到低的演变,权重熵的比较揭示出1993年之后中国原油进口系统有序性要低于美国。以上结果表明追求多元化不应以均质化为目标,不同的主体要依据各自所面临的客观环境选择适合自己的区域合作伙伴,才能更好的落实多元化进口策略,切实解决可能面临的石油供给危机。

油气市场准入改革对国有大型石油石化企业的影响——对《深化石油天然气体制改革的若干意见》的解读

2017年5月发布的《关于深化石油天然气体制改革的若干意见》引领了中国油气产业的新一轮改革,油气市场准入则是本次改革中的重点,将对我国国有大型石油石化企业产生深远的影响。为此,梳理了目前我国油气产业链各环节市场准入的现状及存在的主要问题,分析了上述意见在油气勘探开发、天然气与管道、炼油与成品油批发零售、原油与成品油进出口等4个领域对国有大型石油石化企业的影响。最后提出了国有大型石油石化企业落实上述意见的原则和相关建议:(1)在油气勘探开发领域,国有大型石油石化企业可以从配合国家完善油气勘查开采体制、梳理调整企业内部业务、完善内部配套支持建设等方面入手做好相关工作;(2)在天然气与管道领域,可以积极参与推进行业法律、准入机制、省级管网改革等相关工作,并做好基础设施建设工作;(3)在炼油与成品油批发零售领域,进一步优化布局,提高效率,创新营销模式,加强品牌推广;(4)在原油与成品油进出口领域,进一步加强对动态管理机制、企业间合作机会、平台和市场等方面的研究工作。

中国原油进口对国际油价波动的影响及其战略转型研究

随着中国原油净进口的快速增加,中国因素可能对国际油价产生影响。交易者异质性预期是国际油价的决定因素,中国原油进口会影响基本面分析者的预期形成进而影响油价波动。以2005年8月至2011年11月的时间序列数据,通过构建VAR模型得以证实,中国原油净进口是国际原油价格的Granger原因。从长期看,中国原油净进口对国际油价的冲击和影响力度不仅显著而且在逐渐加强。今后需要对石油外向型战略进行重新认识,未来中国的石油战略需要向能源替代战略转型、向参与国际原油期货市场转型。