China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrat...China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.展开更多
It was approved by the State Council in1984 to establish economic andtechnological development zones in 14coastal port cities to function as windows forthose cities to attract foreign investment,introduce advanced tec...It was approved by the State Council in1984 to establish economic andtechnological development zones in 14coastal port cities to function as windows forthose cities to attract foreign investment,introduce advanced technology andmanagement methods and expand the export-oriented economy. Since 1992, 18 otherdevelopment zones have been approved bythe Council, increasing the number of suchzones to 32.展开更多
Can the rapid growth of China’s economy be sustained? How is it to be sustained? This has become a hot topic in recent years arousing worldwide attention. To understand the reason for this much talked about topic, we...Can the rapid growth of China’s economy be sustained? How is it to be sustained? This has become a hot topic in recent years arousing worldwide attention. To understand the reason for this much talked about topic, we have to look at the past 30 years of China’s development, and how it has become an important force in the world economy. Whether展开更多
Results derived from evaluations using different measures for China＇s economic growth are divergent, especially when the RMB exchange rate has experienced large depreciation. Focusing on the changes in the RMB exchan...Results derived from evaluations using different measures for China＇s economic growth are divergent, especially when the RMB exchange rate has experienced large depreciation. Focusing on the changes in the RMB exchange rate matching the demands of economic development, we offer some plausible explanations for the variations in the evaluation results. The significant gaps between different economic performance evaluation results before the mid-1990s, and evidence from international comparisons of factor productivity indicate that the quality of economic growth in China is different from that of other economies. Evaluation of economic development should take into account both quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement. From this perspective, evaluation results indicate qualitative improvement in the Chinese economy after the mid-1990s.展开更多
China ＇ s economy in 2006 continued to register high growth of l 0. 5 to 10. 7percent with low inflation （CPI at 1.3 percenO, dissipating fears of a hard landing. Since its accession to the WTO, China has become a s...China ＇ s economy in 2006 continued to register high growth of l 0. 5 to 10. 7percent with low inflation （CPI at 1.3 percenO, dissipating fears of a hard landing. Since its accession to the WTO, China has become a significant global economic player, and is the favorite destination for many regional and global production networks. China is now a truly economic power （jingji daguo）. China ＇s economic leadership is also increasingly confident of its ability to manage China ＇s domestic economic growth and its growing relations with the outside world. Although China＇s growth is expected to slow down in 2007 to approximately 9.5 percent, the national mood now is one of ＂more balanced＂ growth rather than ＂＇fast growth ＂. Therefore, the building of a ＂harmonious society＂ is to be emphasized in China, while letting economic growth solve the burning social and environmental issues. In 2007, the government will also need to deal with various internal and external imbalances. The renminbi will be under even stronger pressure to revalue, given China ＂s record trade surplus of US$160bn and foreign reserves of US$1tn.展开更多
基金an outcome of Study on China’s Potential Economic Growth Calculations,which is a major program of the National Social Sciences Foundation(Grant No.12AZD096)~~
文摘China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.
文摘It was approved by the State Council in1984 to establish economic andtechnological development zones in 14coastal port cities to function as windows forthose cities to attract foreign investment,introduce advanced technology andmanagement methods and expand the export-oriented economy. Since 1992, 18 otherdevelopment zones have been approved bythe Council, increasing the number of suchzones to 32.
文摘Can the rapid growth of China’s economy be sustained? How is it to be sustained? This has become a hot topic in recent years arousing worldwide attention. To understand the reason for this much talked about topic, we have to look at the past 30 years of China’s development, and how it has become an important force in the world economy. Whether
文摘Results derived from evaluations using different measures for China＇s economic growth are divergent, especially when the RMB exchange rate has experienced large depreciation. Focusing on the changes in the RMB exchange rate matching the demands of economic development, we offer some plausible explanations for the variations in the evaluation results. The significant gaps between different economic performance evaluation results before the mid-1990s, and evidence from international comparisons of factor productivity indicate that the quality of economic growth in China is different from that of other economies. Evaluation of economic development should take into account both quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement. From this perspective, evaluation results indicate qualitative improvement in the Chinese economy after the mid-1990s.
文摘China ＇ s economy in 2006 continued to register high growth of l 0. 5 to 10. 7percent with low inflation （CPI at 1.3 percenO, dissipating fears of a hard landing. Since its accession to the WTO, China has become a significant global economic player, and is the favorite destination for many regional and global production networks. China is now a truly economic power （jingji daguo）. China ＇s economic leadership is also increasingly confident of its ability to manage China ＇s domestic economic growth and its growing relations with the outside world. Although China＇s growth is expected to slow down in 2007 to approximately 9.5 percent, the national mood now is one of ＂more balanced＂ growth rather than ＂＇fast growth ＂. Therefore, the building of a ＂harmonious society＂ is to be emphasized in China, while letting economic growth solve the burning social and environmental issues. In 2007, the government will also need to deal with various internal and external imbalances. The renminbi will be under even stronger pressure to revalue, given China ＂s record trade surplus of US$160bn and foreign reserves of US$1tn.
