东北地区土地覆被格局变化模拟:基于CLUE-S和Markov-CA模型的对比分析

研究以遥感解译的东北地区2000年、2010年、2015年的土地覆被变化为基础,充分考虑自然和社会因素对土地覆被变化的影响,分别通过CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型对东北地区2015年和2030年土地覆被格局进行模拟,研究结果表明:通过与遥感解译的2015年实际土地覆被类型数据对比验证,CLUE-S模型和Markov-CA模型模拟结果的总体Kappa指数分别为0.9700和0.9649,结果表明2种模型的模拟结果较为理想,CLUE-S模型的模拟精度较Markov-CA模型更高。2015—2030年东北地区草地、耕地、湿地、其他用地和水体面积呈现下降趋势,林地、人工表面面积呈现增加趋势,人地关系越发紧张。东北地区作为生态环境相对脆弱的区域需警惕不可持续的土地覆被变化,需权衡生态保护、粮食增加与基础设施建设的用地需求和协调发展。

Multi-model comparison of CO2 emissions peaking in China:Lessons from CEMF01 study

The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.

The relationship between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices based on a structural VAR model

With the frequent fluctuations of international crude oil prices and China＇s increasing dependence on foreign oil in recent years, the volatility of international oil prices has significantly influenced China domestic refined oil price. This paper aims to investigate the transmission and feedback mechanism between international crude oil prices and China＇s refined oil prices for the time span from January 2011 to November 2015 by using the Granger causality test, vector autoregression model, impulse response function and variance decomposition methods. It is demonstrated that variation of international crude oil prices can cause China domestic refined oil price to change with a weak feedback effect. Moreover, international crude oil prices and China domestic refined oil prices are affected by their lag terms in positive and negative directions in different degrees. Besides, an international crude oil price shock has a signif- icant positive impact on domestic refined oil prices while the impulse response of the international crude oil price variable to the domestic refined oil price shock is negatively insignificant. Furthermore, international crude oil prices and domestic refined oil prices have strong historical inheri- tance. According to the variance decomposition analysis, the international crude oil price is significantly affected by its own disturbance influence, and a domestic refined oil price shock has a slight impact on international crude oil price changes. The domestic refined oil price variance is mainly caused by international crude oil price disturbance, while the domestic refined oil price is slightly affected by its own disturbance. Generally, domestic refined oil prices do not immediately respond to an international crude oil price change, that is, there is a time lag.

Modification of Costanza's model of valuing ecosystem services and its application in China

In the past,evaluations of ecosystem functions were mostly based on Costanza's model,whereas the spatial,quality and temporal characteristics of regional ecosystems were not considered in the model.Focusing on these issues,coefficients of regional difference,spatial heterogeneity and willingness-to-pay(WTP)were established to modify Costanza's model,and a new comprehensive valuation model of ecosystem functions is proposed.The analytical results indicate that the comprehensive model could evaluate regional ecosystem functions in China accurately and provide more helpful information for decision-making.The empirical study on Zhangbei County in Hebei Province shows that the intensive human activities could limit the provision of ecosystem functions while the planned ecological programs might promote the restoration of ecosystem functions.

Three Models of English Education in China＇s Universities ——-A Historical Perspective

In the present paper, a comparison is made of the three formats in the history of EECU （English education in China＇s universities）. In the first period （1904-1949）, English education was conducted separately in government-managed educational institutions and in institutions sponsored by church-related organizations; English education was well-knit with both general education and specialty education; and self-motivating learning was encouraged. In the second period （1950-1966）, almost everything was tinted with a shady color of politics： A halt was addressed drastically to EEC （English education in China） in 1952. In the gradual recovery that started four years later, the second format was sawed and hammered, showing the following features： All non-government-mamaged institutions vanished from the stage; English was taught solely as a language or a system of verbal parts, almost deprived of all cultural loading. The third period （1978 onwards） has witnessed a barrier-free and rapid development of over three decades, resulting in the unprecedented pervasion of EECU. Yet in the third tbrmat, learners＇ efforts have turned wholly test-oriented, degenerating into the saddening disintegrity of learning as a process into isolated charges to the target of a test at a time; the ignorant reduction of the learning methods to ＂Vocabulary Booklets Plus Collections of Test Papers＂. Such a comparison not only provides a multi-dimensional perspective of EECU and a better understanding of it, but also offers some important experiences and lessons for the search of an effective solution to the pervasive problem of＂Time-Consumingness and Low-Efficiency＂.

Temporal and spatial variability of the carbon cycle in the east of China's seas:a three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical modeling study

In the east of China＇s seas, there is a wide range of the continental shelf. The nutrient cycle and the carbon cycle in the east of China＇s seas exhibit a strong variability on seasonal to decadal time scales. On the basis of a regional ocean modeling system（ROMS）, a three dimensional physical-biogeochemical model including the carbon cycle with the resolution（1/12）°×（1/12）° is established to investigate the physical variations, ecosystem responses and carbon cycle consequences in the east of China＇s seas. The ROMS-Nutrient Phytoplankton Zooplankton Detritus（NPZD） model is driven by daily air-sea fluxes（wind stress, long wave radiation, short wave radiation, sensible heat and latent heat, freshwater fluxes） that derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction（NCEP） reanalysis2 from 1982 to 2005. The coupled model is capable of reproducing the observed seasonal variation characteristics over the same period in the East China Sea. The integrated air-sea CO_2 flux over the entire east of China＇s seas reveals a strong seasonal cycle, functioning as a source of CO_2 to the atmosphere from June to October, while serving as a sink of CO_2 to the atmosphere in the other months. The 24 a mean value of airsea CO_2 flux over the entire east of China＇s seas is about 1.06 mol/（m^2·a）, which is equivalent to a regional total of3.22 Mt/a, indicating that in the east of China＇s seas there is a sink of CO_2 to the atmosphere. The partial pressure of carbon dioxide in sea water in the east of China＇s seas has an increasing rate of 1.15 μatm/a（1μtm/a=0.101 325Pa）, but p H in sea water has an opposite tendency, which decreases with a rate of 0.001 3 a^（–1） from 1982 to 2005.Biological activity is a dominant factor that controls the pCO_2 air in the east of China＇s seas, and followed by a temperature. The inverse relationship between the interannual variability of air-sea CO_2 flux averaged from the domain area and Ni？o3 SST Index indicates that the carbon cycle in the east of China＇s seas has a high correlation with El Ni？o-Southern Oscillation（ENSO）.

Moderating effect of corporate financialization on the impact of climate policy on corporate green innovation:Evidence from China

With intensifying global climate change,humanity is confronted with unparalleled environmental challenges and risks.This study employs the staggered difference-in-difference model to examine the relationship between climate policy and green innovation in the corporate financialization context.Using Chinese-listed company data from 2008 to 2020,our analysis reveals a favorable correlation between China’s carbon emission trading policy(CCTP)and advancements in green innovation.Furthermore,we find that the level of corporate financialization moderates this correlation,diminishing the driving effect of CCTP on green innovation.Additionally,results of heterogeneity analysis show that this moderating consequence is more evident in non-state owned and low-digitization enterprises compared with state-owned and high-digitization ones.Our findings contribute to the existing literature by clarifying the interaction between CCTP,green innovation,and corporate financialization.Our research provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders seeking to strengthen climate policies and encourages green innovation in different types of businesses.

China＇s Electricity Industry at the Crossroads： New Challenges for Developing the Right Model of Regulation

China is facing important challenges stemming from increasing rates of urbanization and aging population. To pursue its ＂harmonious society＂ objective without disrupting its path to development major overhauls are necessary in education, health, social security and above all in public services, particularly in electricity. China＇s electricity industry is at the crossroads. To meet the challenges, new models of regulation should be developed and applied. This paper examines the current state of the Chinese electricity industry and the burden it imposes on its public finances. It also reviews and critically examines the existing FIT （Europe） and RPS （USA） models of regulation and of promotion of renewable energies and advances on whether they are advantageous for China. It is argued that the electricity industry has already undergone important reforms but cross subsidies still exist, equivalent to 1.5% of China＇s GDP. Drastic rate rebalancing policies will create sustainability problems and a deterioration of China＇s public finances. To avoid such negative results, China has to further reform its electricity industry gradually and use wisely FIT-type programs to bring renewables into the grid and fulfill the Kyoto Protocol

Study on the Characteristics, Problems, and Models of China＇s Aid to Africa under the New Situation

In this paper, the characteristics of China＇s aid to Africa under the new situation are summarized, and also the existing problems are smmnarized from the level of strategy, the level of public opinion, the level of methods and contents, and the level of effect. Combined with the change of the current international political and economic trend, the model of China＇s aid to Afiica is innovatively concluded by tile author as Ihe model of＂Bidirectional Balance Improved Aid＂ and also its definition, main contents, and practice keys are expounded. This model provides a reference model for China＇s aid to Africa and is good for solving the problems in the aid, so that a better actual effect can be achieved.

CHINA'S NEW ATTEMPTS IN BUILDING A NEW MODEL OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS:CHINA-CEE COOPERATION

Proposed by the Chinese Government,China and 16 Central and East European(CEE)countries jointly launched the framework of 16+1 cooperation in 2012.China has actively practiced the concept of openness,inclusiveness and win-win cooperation,putting it into the framework of 16+1 cooperation and making new attempts in constructing a new model of international relations.Over the

Research on China's Aquaculture Efficiency Evaluation and Influencing Factors with Undesirable Outputs

Taking the aquaculture area, the number of farming boats and that of aquaculturist as input variables, the aquaculture production as desirable output variable and polluted economic loss as undesirable output variable, this paper conducts SBM model to evaluate the aquaculture efficiency based on the data of 16 aquaculture-developed provinces in China from 2004 to 2011. The results show the efficiency in China has not changed much in recent years with the efficiency values mainly between 0.39 and 0.53, and the efficiency of marine-aquaculture-dominated provinces is generally higher than that of freshwater-aquaculture-dominated ones. To analyze the difference under the efficiency, the panel Tobit model is used with education level factor, training factor, technology extension factor, technical level factor, scale factor and species factor as the efficiency influencing factors. The results show that technology extension factor and technical level factor have significant positive influence.

Estimation and testing of linkages between forest structure and rainfall interception characteristics of a Robinia pseudoacacia plantation on China’s Loess Plateau

Understanding the interaction between canopy structure and the parameters of interception loss is essential in predicting the variations in partitioning rainfall and water resources as affected by changes in canopy structure and in implementing water-based management in semiarid forest plantations.In this study,seasonal variations in rainfall interception loss and canopy storage capacity as driven by canopy structure were predicted and the linkages were tested using seasonal filed measurements.The study was conducted in nine 50 m×50 m Robinia pseudoacacia plots in the semiarid region of China’s Loess Plateau.Gross rain-fall,throughfall and stemflow were measured in seasons with and without leaves in 2015 and 2016.Results show that measured average interception loss for the nine plots were 17.9% and 9.4% of gross rainfall during periods with leaves (the growing season) and without leaves, respectively. Average canopy storage capacity estimated using an indirect method was 1.3 mm in the growing season and 0.2 mm in the leafless season. Correlations of relative interception loss and canopy storage capacity to canopy variables were highest for leaf/wood area index (LAI/WAI) and canopy cover, fol-lowed by bark area, basal area, tree height and stand density. Combined canopy cover, leaf/wood area index and bark area multiple regression models of interception loss and canopy storage capacity were established for the growing season and in the leafless season in 2015. It explained 97% and 96% of the variations in relative interception loss during seasons with and without leaves, respectively. It also explained 98% and 99% of the variations in canopy storage capacity during seasons with and without leaves, respectively. The empiri-cal regression models were validated using field data col-lected in 2016. The models satisfactorily predicted relative interception loss and canopy storage capacity during seasons with and without leaves. This study provides greater under-standing about the effects of changes in tree canopy structure (e.g., dieback or mortality) on hydrological processes.

China's economic performance and prospects for the first half of 2009

China’s economic downturn has been brought under control with a series of stimulus policies,and the economy is in a critical period of stable recovery.In the first half of this year,its GDP growth reached 7.1%,and is expected to rise in the second half of the year.Overall,the annual growth rate for this year may exceed the goal of 8%. Maintaining growth remains a top priority of the next stage of macro-regulation,and China must steadfastly implement a proactive fiscal policy and moderately relaxed monetary policy.In maintaining growth and expanding domestic consumption,China should be patient,follow the laws of economic development,and properly balance the urgent economic growth priorities with long-term sustainable development.Macro-regulation should highlight transformation of growth pattern,strategic restructuring and improvement of economic efficiency.We should implement the policies that have been alrendy issued,and make policy preparations against emerging domestic and international situations and problems.

Investment risk analysis of China's wind power industry based on pre-assessment matrix

Wind energy is a clean and sustainable energy, and wind power does not rely on fossil fuels. So there is no fuel price risk, and it, of course, does not include the environmental costs, such as carbon emissions. Because of these unique advantages, wind power has gradually become an important part of the strategy of sustainable development in China. Now with the growing voices on global greenhouse gas emission reduction, and as a clean and efficient energy, wind power has huge potential in combating climate change, energy security pressures and the needs for energy. Wind power in China began to develop from the 1980s. In the first 20 years, the speed of development was slow; but since 2004, it has had an extremely rapid growth.This paper, in order to study the development mechanism of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry, investigated and analyzed the status quo of wind power industry in China, and then found that （1） the development trend of wind power industry in China appears exponential growth; （2） China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s installed capacity of wind power is still smaller than that os some other countries; （3） new subsidy policies bring developing opportunities to wind power industry in China; （4） the sectors of wind power industry are in unbalanced growing; （5） the owners of proposed wind farms are too optimistic though the built wind farm had many problems. In addition, by using the methodology of Game Theory, this paper has also constructed the matrix of pre-assessing risks of China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry to further discuss the potential risk factors within China＆amp;amp;amp;#39;s wind power industry as risk factors of wind farm construction, risk factors of production of wind turbines, risk factors of parts and components manufacturing industry under risk indicators like R＆amp;amp;amp;amp;D, patents, the domestic policy, the international policy, the quality of products and the market regulation, in order to provide a scientific assessment and self-assessment tool for investors or implementers, and also to promote the further development of the wind power industry.

Ecological Security Assessment in County Area Based on P-S-R Model——A Case Study of Ningwu County,Shanxi Province

To further understand the status quo and change tendency of ecological security in county area, we took the example of Ningwu County, the headstream of Fenhe River, confronting serious eco-environment problem and considerable human impacts. Taking Ningwu as the study area and using variation coefficient method to determine the weights of the indices, we built ecological security pattern based on Pressure-State-Response （P-S-R） Model of Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. The ecological security status was evaluated by calculating eco-security index （ESI） with socio-economic statistical data of Ningwu during 2001 -2010. The results showed that the situation of eco-security had been improved from heavy alarm to relative safety during 2001 -2010. It reflected that the ecological economic system in Ningwu County tended to be relaxed constantly after experienced a sharp conflict between ecological environment and economic growth. The ecological safety awareness was growing, however, by force of the objective requirements of population growth and economic development, the situation of ecological security was still unstable.

Spatio-temporal Distribution Characteristics and Environmental Impact Factors of Lung Cancer Mortality: A Case Study of Yuhui District in Bengbu City, China

Among cancers, lung cancer is the most common cause of death in China. For the prevention and control of lung cancer, it is necessary to investigate the spatial and temporal distribution of lung cancer mortality, as well as the changes in the trend and the affecting mechanism. Based on statistics and auto-correlation analysis, this paper studied the spatial and temporal distribution of lung cancer mortality in Yuhui District, Bengbu, Huaihe River Basin, from 2017 to 2020. In addition, Spearman’s Rank Correlation Assessment Model and Geographic Detector Model were used to examine the relationship between environmental factors and lung cancer mortality to identify impact factors and their mechanisms. The findings indicated that: 1) from the characteristics of temporal distribution, the number of lung cancer deaths exhibited a linear growth tendency, with the highest mortality in winter;2) from the characteristics of spatial distribution, lung cancer mortality showed a strong spatial agglomeration form, concentrating on two clustering areas, located in the old city and the central city of Bengbu, near the Huaihe River;3) from the point of view of the whole research area, there were 15 impact factors with significant correlation in the built and natural environment factors. The significant impacting factors in the built environment included land use, road traffic, spatial form and blue-green space, which could indirectly affect lung cancer mortality, while air pollution and temperature constituted the significant impacting factors in the natural environment;4) the influence of screened environmental factors on lung cancer mortality was different. Spatial stratified heterogeneity assessment, the interaction among environmental factors demonstrated statistical significance, it was found that the interaction between environmental factors in pairs had a significant enhancement effect on lung cancer mortality. To some extent, urban planning and policies could reduce lung cancer mortality.

Synthetic tidal parameters for gravity over China and its neighbor area

The synthetic tidal parameters with high spatial resolution for gravity over China and its neighbor area are constructed with Earth＇s tidal model and ocean tide loading calculated using TPXO7 global ocean tide model as well as tidal data over China seas. The comparison between synthetic parameters and ones observed by spring gravimeters at some seismic network stations and Hong Kong station and one observed by super-conducting gravimeter at Wuhan station shows that the average differences in amplitude factors and phases are smaller than 0.005 and 0.5° respectively; and that the discrepancies between observational and synthetic parameters are dependent on gravimetric technique in that the synthetic parameters are in well agreement with the superconducting gravimetric observations. This also indicates that the synthetic result is a good estimation for tidal gravity, and the numerical results in the present paper not only can provide ground and space gravimetry such as absolute gravimetry with correction model of tidal gravity, but also provide effective tidal parameters over areas where no observation is carried out.

Discount Rate of China’s New Energy Power Industry

Under the dual pressures of energy crisis and environmental pollution,China’s new energy power industry has become a focal point for environmental management and requires greater investment.In this context,as a significant input of investment projects,discount rate requires a well-calibrated evaluation because new energy power investment projects are highly capital intensive.The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the discount rate of China’s new energy power industry.First,we use Moving Average to correct the parameters of capital asset pricing model(CAPM)and weighted average cost of capital,which extends the literature on the avoidance of CAPM noise information problem.Second,we study the industry-level annual discount rates of mainly China’s new energy power industries,including hydropower,nuclear power,wind power,and photovoltaic power industries for the period of 2014-2019.The results show that discount rates in China’s new energy power industries evolved differently between the years of 2014-2019 with average annual discount rates being 7.56%,5.83%,5.60%,and 8.64%,for the hydropower,nuclear power,wind power,and photovoltaic power industries,respectively.In 2019,the four annual discount rates were highest for the photovoltaic power industry(8.66%),followed by hydropower(7.17%),wind power(5.72%),and nuclear power industry(5.26%).Forecasting to 2020 from the 2019 evaluation base period,the discount rates are 6.37%,5.00%,6.57%,and 9.05%for the photovoltaic power,hydropower,wind power,and nuclear power industries,respectively.Under the different capital structures,their forecasts for the photovoltaic power,hydropower,wind power,and nuclear power industries in 2020 are,respectively,within[4.35%,9.24%],[3.92%,7.10%],[4.58%,10.40%],[5.46%,14.81%].We also discussed more details on capital structure and forecast period of discount rates for China’s new energy power industries.Our analysis shows that it is necessary to establish a new energy power industry database and steadily promote the implementation of policies.

SWOT Analysis of China’s Smart Pension Industry

China’s smart pension industry is a sunrise industry,is an organic combination of information technology and traditional service industry emerging industry.To analyze the strength,weakness,opportunities and threats of the industry is conducive to a comprehensive understanding of the development status of the industry and grasp the development trend of the industry.

Study on the Potential of China’s Fruit and Vegetable Products Export to the RCEP Partners

China is one of the world’s major exporters of fruit and vegetable products,and the expansion of fruit and vegetable exports is important for increasing agricultural income.Based on time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and trade inefficiency model,this paper empirically analyzes the influencing factors and trade efficiency of China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners from 2001 to 2019.The results show that China’s GDP per capita,the population of importing countries,and common language conditions have positive effects on China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners.GDP per capita of importing countries,the population of China,and geographical distance between trading parties hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products.The presence of trade inefficiencies constrains China’s fruit and vegetable products export to RCEP partners,with liner shipping connectivity and trade freedom having a positive relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products.Variable trade costs and fixed trade costs have a negative relationship with export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products,which hinder trade in fruit and vegetable products,while financial freedom and free trade agreements have no significant impact on export efficiency of fruit and vegetable products.