Factors affecting the pilot trading market of carbon emissions in China

Climate change and carbon emissions are major problems which are attracting worldwide attention. China has had its pilot carbon emission trading markets in seven regions for more than 3 years. What affects carbon emission trading market in China is a big question. More attention is paid to how China promotes the carbon emission trading schemes in the whole country. This paper addresses concerns about the functioning of carbon emission trading schemes in seven pilot regions and takes the weekly data from November 25, 2013, to March 19, 2017. We employ a vector autoregressive model to study how coal price, oil price and stock index have affected the carbon price in China. The results indicate that carbon price is mainly affected by its own historical price; coal price and stock index have negative effects on carbon price, while oil price has a negative effect on carbon price during the first 3 weeks and then has a positive effect on carbon price. More regulatory attention and economic measures are needed to improve market efficiency, and the mechanisms of carbon emission trading schemes should be improved.

Localization Reform of Carbon Emissions Trading Mechanism in China

Based on the practical experiences of Guangdong carbon emissions trading pilot, the key issues such as cap setting, allowance alloca- tion, system defects, regulatory integration and MRV mechanisms were analyzed in this paper from the localization perspective. A number of solu- tions and policy recommendations were also proposed in this study in order to solve these barriers.

Construction of legal system of carbon emissions trading in China

Countries in the world have taken a variety of means to control carbon emissions based on the serious situation of global warming,the concept of low-carbon economy and the provisions about emissions in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC) and the Kyoto Protocol.With the measures of emissions reductions,the system of carbon emissions trading is taking shape.It is necessary for China as the big natural resources consumption country to establish its own carbon emissions trading system.By introducing the carbon emissions trading system of the European Union,America and Japan,and analyzing the market and policies been formed,the carbon emissions trading system in China can be established from the initial configuration of the emissions rights,the subject and object of carbon emissions trading,establishing the carbon emissions trading exchange and supervising and regulating the carbon emissions trading.

Multi-model comparison of CO2 emissions peaking in China:Lessons from CEMF01 study

The paper summarizes results of the China Energy Modeling Forum's(CEMF)first study.Carbon emissions peaking scenarios,consistent with China's Paris commitment,have been simulated with seven national and industry-level energy models and compared.The CO2 emission trends in the considered scenarios peak from 2015 to 2030 at the level of 9e11 Gt.Sector-level analysis suggests that total emissions pathways before 2030 will be determined mainly by dynamics of emissions in the electric power industry and transportation sector.Both sectors will experience significant increase in demand,but have low-carbon alternative options for development.Based on a side-by-side comparison of modeling input and results,conclusions have been drawn regarding the sources of emissions projections differences,which include data,views on economic perspectives,or models'structure and theoretical framework.Some suggestions have been made regarding energy models'development priorities for further research.

For CO<SUB>2</SUB>Emission Trading in China, Can the Market Become a National One, Four Years after Creating Seven Local Markets?

In this paper, we assess the existing seven local pilot carbon emission trading schemes in China and analyse the factors determining whether China’s carbon market is successful in terms of handling substantial amounts of CO2 emissions rights, regulating the market and trading them at a reasonable price. The emission trading system is developing slowly in most of the participating provinces and cities. Prices tend to decline, while volumes trading slowly increase. The volatility is partially the result of regulation (the rights need to be renewed before a certain date) and partially due to government interventions in the market. Based on the assessment, recommendations are provided for China implementing a national carbon market, based on the experiences and lessons learnt from the seven local carbon emission trading schemes. Conditions for China to roll out the system and later improve the national emission trading scheme to replace the existing local emission trading schemes are formulated.

Technology strategies to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality for China's metal mines

Greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions related to human activities have significantly caused climate change since the Industrial Revolution.China aims to achieve its carbon emission peak before 2030 and carbon neutrality before 2060.Accordingly,this paper reviews and discusses technical strategies to achieve the“dual carbon”targets in China’s metal mines.First,global carbon emissions and emission intensities from metal mining industries are analyzed.The metal mining status and carbon emissions in China are then examined.Furthermore,advanced technologies for carbon mitigation and carbon sequestration in metal mines are reviewed.Finally,a technical roadmap for achieving carbon neutrality in China’s metal mines is proposed.Findings show that some international mining giants have already achieved their carbon reduction targets and planned to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050.Moreover,improving mining efficiency by developing advanced technologies and replacing fossil fuel with renewable energy are two key approaches in reducing GHG emissions.Green mines can significantly benefit from the carbon neutrality process for metal mines through the carbon absorption of reclamation vegetations.Geothermal energy extraction from operating and abandoned metal mines is a promising technology for providing clean energy and contributing to the carbon neutrality target of China’s metal mines.Carbon sequestration in mine backfills and tailings through mineral carbonation has the potential to permanently and safely store carbon dioxide,which can eventually make the metal mining industry carbon neutral or even carbon negative.

Impacts of inter-sectoral trade on carbon emissions --a case of China in 2007

With the increase in international trade, more attention has been given to quantifying the impacts of international trade on energy use and carbon emissions. Input-output analysis is a suitable tool for assessing resources or pollutants embodied in trade and it has become a critical tool for performing such analysis. This study estimated the national and sectoral carbon emissions embodied in Chinese international trade using the latest available China input-output table of 2007. The results showed that a significant exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions existed in China＇s trade. Over 1/3 of the emissions in Chinese domestic production processes were generated for exports in 2007. The net balance of emissions embodied in exports and imports accounted for nearly 30% of China＇s domestic emissions, which means that any policy made to increase the exports would result in a significant growth of China＇s domestic emissions. Since over half of China＇s export trade is processing trade, the re-exported emissions could not be overlooked; otherwise, it would hard to capture the actual emissions generated abroad to obtain China＇s domestic consumption. The enlargement of export scale is a primary driven factor to the rapid growth of China＇s exported emissions. It is necessary for China to adjust its economic and industrial structure to reduce the dependence of economic growth on the export trade. However, when adjusting industry structures or making policies on carbon emission reduction, it will be more reasonable to consider the relationship between production and consumption, rather than just focus on the emission values of sectors＇ direct production, as a large part of carbon emissions emitted by the principal direct polluters were generated to obtain the products which were required by other sectors.

中国碳市场建设成效与展望(2024)

碳交易通过显性碳定价原则,将排放的负外部效应内部成本化,为处理经济发展与减排关系提供了一种解决方案。截至2023年,全球共28个碳交易体系投入运行,覆盖的温室气体排放量超过全球排放总量的17%,实施区域从发达国家逐步拓展至发展中国家,从欧洲、北美等地逐步拓展至拉美、东亚等地,更多的区域选择将碳市场减排目标与宏观减排目标绑定,并通过不断优化制度提高市场有效性,碳市场影响力逐步提高。2023年中国全国碳市场核算、核查、配额分配、数据管理、自愿减排等制度方法取得重要突破,全年配额成交2.12亿吨,是2022年的4.2倍,成交均价68.15元/吨,较2022年上涨23.24%,较第一个履约周期上涨59.04%。经过两个履约周期的建设,全国碳市场已形成要素完整的全流程制度框架,责任主体分工明确,支撑平台安全运转,碳排放数据质量大幅提高,碳价格发现机制初步形成,碳减排激励约束效果初显,推动碳市场成为中国实现“双碳”战略目标的重要政策工具。下一步全国碳市场将扩大行业覆盖范围,梯次纳入水泥、民航、电解铝、钢铁等行业;优化配额分配方法,适时引入有偿分配机制;调整履约机制,明确结余配额结转规定;出台多项中国核证自愿减排方法学,完善强制减排与自愿减排市场的衔接;加快推进与国际碳市场的连接,促进技术、方法、标准、数据互认互通,协助积极应对欧盟碳边境调节机制。

The effects of international trade on Chinese carbon emissions： An empirical analysis

International trade is an important impact factor to the carbon emissions of a country As the rapid development of Chinese foreign trade since its entry into the WTO in 2002, the effects of international trade on carbon emissions of China are more and more significant. Using the recent available input-output tables of China and energy consumption data, this study estimated the effects of Chinese foreign trade on carbon emissions and the changes of the effects by analyzing the emissions embodied in trade between 2002 and 2007. The results showed a more and more significant exporting behavior of embodied carbon emissions in Chinese international trade. From 2002 to 2007, the proportion of net exported emissions and domestic exported emissions in domestic emissions increased from 18.32% to 29.79% and from 23.97% to 34.76%, respectively. In addition, about 22.10% and 32.29% of the total imported emissions were generated in processing trade in 2002 and 2007, respectively, which were imported and later exported emissions. Although, most of the sectors showed a growth trend in imported and exported emissions, sectors of electrical machinery and communication electronic equipment, chemical industry, and textile were still the biggest emission exporters, the net exported emissions of which were also the largest. For China and other developing countries, technology improvement may be the most favorable and acceptable ways to reduce carbon emissions at present stage. In the future negotiations on emissions reduction, it would be more fair and reasonable to include the carbon emissions embodied in international trade when accounting the total emissions of an economy.

数据中心纳入全国碳排放权交易市场机制研究

当前,我国数据中心产业发展迅速,耗电量同步快速增长,导致了大量的间接温室气体排放。在“碳达峰、碳中和”目标提出的背景下,将数据中心纳入全国碳排放权交易市场(简称全国碳市场)可以引导数据中心提升能效和使用清洁电力。该文参考全国碳市场运行基本原则,从数据中心各组成部分的运行特征出发,提出数据中心纳入全国碳市场后的碳排放配额分配方法、碳排放核算方法、数据质量控制与绿色电力交易等管理机制,并提出纳入全国碳市场的数据中心责任主体与规模边界建议。

Exploring U.S.-China climate cooperation through linked carbon markets

Emissions trading systems(ETSs)are a widely used policy tool for driving emissions reductions and serve as an avenue for international climate cooperation.Following the recent global agreement on carbon market standards at COP26,this study explores linked ETSs as an avenue for the U.S.and China to cooperate on climate action.The emissions,energy,and economic effects of linked ETSs are analyzed through the China-in-Global Energy Model(C-GEM),a multi-regional,computable general equilibrium model.Assuming the development of national economy-wide ETSs,two scenarios are developed linking China and the U.S.:1)a bilateral U.S.-China ETS linkage 2)a multilateral ETS linkage that includes China,the U.S.,and nations in Southeast Asia.Results indicate that emissions and energy consumption outcomes would be similar in the bilateral and multilateral scenarios.However,economic outcomes are more favorable in the multilateral linkage scenario.When China and the U.S.engage in bilateral ETS linkage,China predominantly benefits from additional support for domestic decarbonization while the U.S.benefits from increased GDP compared to without ETS linkage.Adding Southeast Asia to establish multilateral linkage improves GDP outcomes for all participants,reducing adverse effects on China's GDP while boosting GDP for the U.S.and Southeast Asia.For policymakers considering the design and implementation of international ETSs,this study presents updated modeling on the effects of ETS linkage on each country as well as the economic benefits of expanding participation to additional regions.

农业碳汇纳入自愿减排交易机制的法制进路研究

中国核证自愿减排量(CCER)市场于2024年1月22日在北京正式重启,这于农业碳汇发展来说是重大机遇。从项目需求与理据看,CCER市场为农业碳汇发展提供专业化交易平台,使农业资产附加生态价值,开源了农业农村农民的非农收入渠道,是农村地区实现乡村振兴、共同富裕的特有资源,但也面临市场建构的法制回应、制度架构和发展方式三重现实需求。从问题归类与审视观,农业碳汇纳入CCER机制存在三重挑战:底层架构上产权归属、公私范畴等法理基础尚需厘清;顶层设计上法律政策化、政策法律化等协同体系有待完善;运行机制上市场交易、方法技术等配套方案亟需补足。为此,农业碳汇纳入CCER的法制方案与进路选择应从法理基础阐释、法律政策协同、衔接机制完善、风险管控优化四个方面分别予以回应。

中国碳排放权交易市场运行状况及其效率分析——基于碳交易价格的测算

碳排放权交易机制是我国实现“双碳”目标的重要措施和工具。本文基于全国8个试点碳市场的碳交易数据,分析了试点碳市场的交易和运行状况,并选取2017年1月9日至2023年2月10日碳交易价格数据,采用Bai-Perron方法和R/S分析方法对我国试点碳市场的结构突变和市场效率进行分析,测算了各试点市场的Hurst指数以及基于结构突变点划分的局部Hurst指数。研究显示,深圳碳市场达到弱式有效,上海碳市场接近弱式有效。基于结构突变点划分后各市场阶段运行效率及趋势各不相同。本文详细探究了导致各碳市场结构突变和运行效率差异的原因,并根据研究结果对我国碳市场建设提出相应政策建议。

中国碳排放权交易市场溢出效应分析——基于能源市场、电力市场和金融市场视角分析

中国碳排放权交易市场于2021年7月16日正式启动线上交易。作为实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标的重要工具,备受关注。利用Diebold-Yilmaz溢出指数模型对全国碳市场与能源市场、电力市场和金融市场间风险溢出进行分析。研究结果表明:全国碳市场与能源市场、电力市场和金融市场三个市场间收益率溢出指数均为双向波动,且时变性明显;收益率溢出指数会受到国内外事件的冲击。对此,中国碳排放权交易市场应该尽快制定出完备的法律体系、制度体系以及监管机制,并丰富碳市场产品,加快碳市场的平稳安全地发展。

碳排放权交易对制造业绿色全要素生产率的影响研究

随着“双碳”目标的提出,碳排放交易系统(ETS)如何影响高碳排放行业,如制造业的绿色全要素生产率(GTFP)增长逐渐成为一个重要研究话题。双重差分法是近年来识别碳排放权交易与制造业绿色全要素生产率之间关系的常用研究方法。以2014年开始试点的碳排放权交易政策为准自然实验,研究显示,碳排放权交易政策能够显著促进我国制造业的绿色全要素生产率提升。进一步研究发现,碳排放权交易能够通过筛选外商对内直接投资(IFDI)的质量,进而对绿色全要素生产率产生积极作用。稳健性检验表明,在考虑双重差分法设定条件、平行趋势检验、反事实检验、更改倾向得分匹配方法等后,碳排放权交易对我国制造业绿色全要素生产率的积极作用依然成立。

碳排放和全球价值链参与度——基于中国制造业数据的实证研究

在经济全球化和环境污染的背景下,研究全球价值链参与度和碳排放之间的关系具有重要的现实意义。基于WIOD世界投入产出表,计算得出中国制造业全球价值链参与度,并进一步利用面板数据分析全球价值链参与度对碳排放产生的影响。实证研究表明:中国制造业全球价值链后向参与度和碳排放之间存在正向关系;中国制造业全球价值链前向参与度和碳排放之间存在非线性“U”型关系,即在未达到阈值之前全球价值链前向参与度和碳排放之间存在负向关系,在达到阈值之后全球价值链前向参与度和碳排放之间存在正向关系;全球价值链参与度对碳排放的影响存在显著的行业异质性。研究结果通过了工具变量法、关键变量替换法等一系列稳健性检验。中国制造业企业在参与全球价值链的过程中,中国政府应从支持企业提高自主创新能力、推动企业实现产业结构升级、鼓励企业调整能源结构等多角度减少碳排放。

中国与欧盟碳市场建设理念与实践比较研究:历史沿革、差异分析与决策建议

全球越来越多国家利用市场机制作为治理气候环境的重要工具,推动了碳排放权交易市场的快速发展。迄今为止,欧盟碳市场减排成效最显著,交易规模最大;中国在提出双碳目标后也加速启动了全国碳市场建设。在梳理欧盟与中国碳市场的历史沿革与发展状况的基础上,聚焦碳市场设计的关键环节进行比较分析,剖析市场设计差异背后的深层原因,以期对中国碳市场今后的发展提供建议。中国的碳市场必须在经济发展与碳减排之间找到恰当的平衡点,逐步优化产业结构,激励行业绿色技术升级替代与低碳转型,以较小的社会成本实现减排效益的最大化,提高碳市场在实现国家碳达峰目标及碳中和愿景中应发挥的作用。

中国省际贸易隐含碳及其城乡流通格局分析

开展省际贸易隐含碳流通研究,有助于揭示区级贸易的异地环境影响,识别并划分碳减排责任,对于区域协同减排、公平发展具有重要理论和实践意义。基于2017年中国区域间投入产出表及各省(区、市)能源消费数据,利用环境拓展的投入产出模型,在分析省际贸易隐含碳流通格局的基础上,进一步揭示城乡贸易隐含碳的空间格局和流通路径。研究表明:①贸易隐含碳的输入和输出具有较大的省际差异,净输入区域主要包括华东和西南地区,净输出区域主要集中在华北、东北和西北地区;②贸易隐含碳排放主要从第二产业发达或能源资源富集的经济欠发达地区向经济发达地区流动;③省际贸易隐含碳流通路径相对集中,城镇间贸易隐含碳流通格局与省际的基本一致,而农村间隐含碳贸易体量较小,碳排放路径较为分散;④从全国尺度看,城镇是贸易隐含碳输入的热点区域,而农村则是碳输出的主要源区。各省(区、市)农村输入城镇的贸易隐含碳量明显大于城镇输入农村的贸易隐含碳量,这表明农村在城乡贸易中承担了较大的碳排放压力,建议未来应进一步优化区域生产布局、提升贸易流通效率,并基于区域隐含碳开展省域及城乡之间的横向碳补偿,推动区域之间的协同减排和城乡公平发展。

中国碳交易试点的减排效应与政策机制——基于市场制度特征的视角

基于中国碳交易试点建立政策分批实施的交叠双重差分(Staggered DID)模型,进行碳减排效应和政策机制检验,结果表明,中国碳市场产生了显著的减排效应,且未表现出直接的“两难冲突”问题。但其通过降低煤炭占比实现减排效应的政策机制,在“双重约束”下对中国能源安全和经济发展产生了极大挑战。经过基于市场制度特征的进一步异质性分析,发现中国碳市场在自发竞争提升排放“基准”水平方面存在“市场失灵”问题,CCER市场也还未发挥出应有的创新激励效应。因此,建议在碳配额有偿分配环节设计构建“政府+市场”的优势互补制度,以科学论证的“标杆”作为排放“基准”目标,弥补“市场失灵”,在全国统一市场架构下完善、规范CCER市场,作为中国碳市场实现“共赢”的制度基础。