This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with th...This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.展开更多
China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrat...China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.展开更多
The time period between 2020 and 2035 is vital for China to achieve its second centennial goal.During this period,China must avoid the middle-income trap and achieve socialist modernization.To accomplish this goal,Chi...The time period between 2020 and 2035 is vital for China to achieve its second centennial goal.During this period,China must avoid the middle-income trap and achieve socialist modernization.To accomplish this goal,China must maintain a certain pace of economic growth and strive to double its real GDP per capita by 2035.However,by the current growth trajectory,China’s average economic growth rate is expected to stay at approximately 3.8%over the period between 2020-2035.This makes the GDP per capita growth target hard to achieve.Even when in a high-quality development stage,China should speed up economic growth while enhancing growth quality.Speed and quality are interdependent rather than contradictory with each other.To ramp up economic growth potentials,China must proceed with market-oriented reforms and shift economic growth drivers.To improve economic growth quality,household consumption should be increased to unleash China’s full potential,not only as the factory floor of the world but also one of world’s biggest markets,i.e.“dual circulations.”With appropriate policy response,China’s economy will be poised to achieve the goal of doubling real GDP per capita by 2035,marking a large stride in its economic aggregate and urban and rural household per capita incomes.展开更多
It was approved by the State Council in1984 to establish economic andtechnological development zones in 14coastal port cities to function as windows forthose cities to attract foreign investment,introduce advanced tec...It was approved by the State Council in1984 to establish economic andtechnological development zones in 14coastal port cities to function as windows forthose cities to attract foreign investment,introduce advanced technology andmanagement methods and expand the export-oriented economy. Since 1992, 18 otherdevelopment zones have been approved bythe Council, increasing the number of suchzones to 32.展开更多
By contrast to a slowdown in the world economy, China kept up a rapid growth rate, a relatively high quality of growth and low inflation for the year 2001. This is mainly due to the result of proactive fiscal policies...By contrast to a slowdown in the world economy, China kept up a rapid growth rate, a relatively high quality of growth and low inflation for the year 2001. This is mainly due to the result of proactive fiscal policies that the Chinese Government adopted to stimulate domestic demand. Domestic demand can be divided into investment demand and consumption demand,展开更多
China had entered a period of moderate economic growtht one that is moving at an appropriate pace. China＇s economy is bottoming out and seeking a new balance,
The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-inc...The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-income trap when their per capita GDP reached 4,000-7,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices） as a result of long-term implemented import-oriented strategy and planned economic system. Fortunately, China adopted reform and opening-up policy beginning at a lower development phase and achieved sustained high-speed growth for more than thirty years. Currently, China has surpassed the phase which the above-mentioned countries fell into the middle-income trap. On the other side, experiences of successful runner-ups show that when per capita GDP reached II,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices）, economic growth speed will present regularly ＂natural drop ＂. Without internal and external shocks, China＇s economy is expected to reach this level by 2015 and the potential growth rate will possibly drop significantly. In this regard, China＇s toughest challenges will be whether it can effectively prevent and solve the financial risks accumulated during high-speed growth and make a shift to innovation-driven growth model Time is pressing for addressing the above challenges. A fundamental change in the growth model depends on the intensification of reform, in particular, the promotion of an ＂participatory and facilitative reform ＂approach.展开更多
Results derived from evaluations using different measures for China＇s economic growth are divergent, especially when the RMB exchange rate has experienced large depreciation. Focusing on the changes in the RMB exchan...Results derived from evaluations using different measures for China＇s economic growth are divergent, especially when the RMB exchange rate has experienced large depreciation. Focusing on the changes in the RMB exchange rate matching the demands of economic development, we offer some plausible explanations for the variations in the evaluation results. The significant gaps between different economic performance evaluation results before the mid-1990s, and evidence from international comparisons of factor productivity indicate that the quality of economic growth in China is different from that of other economies. Evaluation of economic development should take into account both quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement. From this perspective, evaluation results indicate qualitative improvement in the Chinese economy after the mid-1990s.展开更多
The growth of the world economy in 2001 featured significant slowdowns, with various developed countries plunging into economic recessions or economic downturns synchronously. Against this context, China was able to m...The growth of the world economy in 2001 featured significant slowdowns, with various developed countries plunging into economic recessions or economic downturns synchronously. Against this context, China was able to maintain a 7.3 percent growth. A simple direct comparison of economic growth of all countries shows that China outshone all the others.展开更多
I. IntroductionSince the "reform and opening up" policy began in 1978, China has sustained high growth. This success is associated with a gradual market-oriented reform. A central feature of this gradual ref...I. IntroductionSince the "reform and opening up" policy began in 1978, China has sustained high growth. This success is associated with a gradual market-oriented reform. A central feature of this gradual reform is that the dominant state-owned enterprises have not been directly privatized; instead, the government chose to gradually introduce market forces into the economy, and at the same time, gradually reduce restrictions on the development of market-oriented non-state-owned enterprises, especially rural collective enterprises.展开更多
The result of the macroeconomic climate index, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on May 29, showed that in April the index remained stable for the fourth consecutive month. This contrasts with the fo...The result of the macroeconomic climate index, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on May 29, showed that in April the index remained stable for the fourth consecutive month. This contrasts with the four months from September 2007 onwards, when the index showed an "in-creasing" trend. Are the four "stable" indices after four "increasing" ones indications that China’s macroeconomy is moving "from a relatively fast growth to overheating?" When interviewed by China Economic Weekly, Xu Xianchun, Deputy Commissioner with the NBS, said that the Chinese economy is likely to enter a period of adjustment. In the next few years, China’s economic growth will drop gradually.展开更多
The 2016 G20 Summit will be held in the Chinese city of Hangzhou under the theme of 'Building an innovative,invigorated,interconnected and inclusive world economy'and with the goals of transforming growth patt...The 2016 G20 Summit will be held in the Chinese city of Hangzhou under the theme of 'Building an innovative,invigorated,interconnected and inclusive world economy'and with the goals of transforming growth patterns in innovative ways,improving global economic and financial governance,promoting global trade and investment and nurturing inclusive and interconnected development.展开更多
Manufacturing and sales According to data collected from 11,934 statistics-worthy Chinese cotton spinning enterprises surveyed by National Bureau of Statistics of China, total industrial production value of the indust...Manufacturing and sales According to data collected from 11,934 statistics-worthy Chinese cotton spinning enterprises surveyed by National Bureau of Statistics of China, total industrial production value of the industry increased 27.39展开更多
Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank＇s analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowl...Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank＇s analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China＇ s reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China＇ s rapid economic development. Implications for China＇s long-term economic development are thereby raised.展开更多
In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external ...In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external pressure it faces,and the supporting policies.Due to the economic recovery and the base effect,China’s real GDP growth rate is projected to reach above 8.0%in 2021,and the quarterly growth rate will drop from 18.3%in Q1 to 5.0%in Q4,showing a declining trend.Based on qualitative assessments and statistical forecasts,this report puts forward some policy suggestions.展开更多
文摘This paper examines the effect of supply-side structural reforms on China＇s potential economic growth rate in the coming decade according to the data the authors have gathered. Under the rapid growth scenario with the implementation of supply-side structural reforms, China＇s potential economic growth rate will reach an average of 6.5% and 5.8% respectively in the 13th Five-year Plan （2016-2020） and 14th Five-year Plan （2021-2025） periods. These rates are 0.2 and 0.3 percentage points higher, respectively, than that under the baseline scenario with the inertia of historic trends. In implementing supply-side structural reforms, China must transform governmental functions, break monopolies, create a comprehensive competitive market environment, foster the creation of pro-innovation mechanisms, refocus on quality and efficiency, and raise capital utilization and labor productivity.
基金an outcome of Study on China’s Potential Economic Growth Calculations,which is a major program of the National Social Sciences Foundation(Grant No.12AZD096)~~
文摘China has entered a crucial period of further growth and restructuring that will last until 2025. Based on a review of the major factors affecting China＇s potential economic growth, this paper has created an integrated economic system model consisting of system dynamics, econometrics, and input-output for the forecast of China＇s economic size and structure by 2025. Analysis shows that prior to 2025, China will be able to maintain a potential annual economic growth rate of 5.7%-7.2%. Faced with an international environment of a possible slowdown of advanced economies and diminishing demographic dividends, China needs to further expedite its urbanization process, enhance R＆D and education spending, increase total factor productivity （TFP）, vigorously develop the tertiary sector, and expand consumption in order to achieve the optimistically estimated growth of 6.6%-7.4% during the period of 2015-2025. Economic growth should be accompanied by the upgrade of industry structure and improvement of investment and consumption structures.
文摘The time period between 2020 and 2035 is vital for China to achieve its second centennial goal.During this period,China must avoid the middle-income trap and achieve socialist modernization.To accomplish this goal,China must maintain a certain pace of economic growth and strive to double its real GDP per capita by 2035.However,by the current growth trajectory,China’s average economic growth rate is expected to stay at approximately 3.8%over the period between 2020-2035.This makes the GDP per capita growth target hard to achieve.Even when in a high-quality development stage,China should speed up economic growth while enhancing growth quality.Speed and quality are interdependent rather than contradictory with each other.To ramp up economic growth potentials,China must proceed with market-oriented reforms and shift economic growth drivers.To improve economic growth quality,household consumption should be increased to unleash China’s full potential,not only as the factory floor of the world but also one of world’s biggest markets,i.e.“dual circulations.”With appropriate policy response,China’s economy will be poised to achieve the goal of doubling real GDP per capita by 2035,marking a large stride in its economic aggregate and urban and rural household per capita incomes.
文摘It was approved by the State Council in1984 to establish economic andtechnological development zones in 14coastal port cities to function as windows forthose cities to attract foreign investment,introduce advanced technology andmanagement methods and expand the export-oriented economy. Since 1992, 18 otherdevelopment zones have been approved bythe Council, increasing the number of suchzones to 32.
文摘By contrast to a slowdown in the world economy, China kept up a rapid growth rate, a relatively high quality of growth and low inflation for the year 2001. This is mainly due to the result of proactive fiscal policies that the Chinese Government adopted to stimulate domestic demand. Domestic demand can be divided into investment demand and consumption demand,
文摘China had entered a period of moderate economic growtht one that is moving at an appropriate pace. China＇s economy is bottoming out and seeking a new balance,
文摘The history of international industrialization shows that Latin American countries and former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries experienced a siginificant drop in economic growth and fell into the middle-income trap when their per capita GDP reached 4,000-7,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices） as a result of long-term implemented import-oriented strategy and planned economic system. Fortunately, China adopted reform and opening-up policy beginning at a lower development phase and achieved sustained high-speed growth for more than thirty years. Currently, China has surpassed the phase which the above-mentioned countries fell into the middle-income trap. On the other side, experiences of successful runner-ups show that when per capita GDP reached II,000 international dollar （based on the 1990 prices）, economic growth speed will present regularly ＂natural drop ＂. Without internal and external shocks, China＇s economy is expected to reach this level by 2015 and the potential growth rate will possibly drop significantly. In this regard, China＇s toughest challenges will be whether it can effectively prevent and solve the financial risks accumulated during high-speed growth and make a shift to innovation-driven growth model Time is pressing for addressing the above challenges. A fundamental change in the growth model depends on the intensification of reform, in particular, the promotion of an ＂participatory and facilitative reform ＂approach.
文摘Results derived from evaluations using different measures for China＇s economic growth are divergent, especially when the RMB exchange rate has experienced large depreciation. Focusing on the changes in the RMB exchange rate matching the demands of economic development, we offer some plausible explanations for the variations in the evaluation results. The significant gaps between different economic performance evaluation results before the mid-1990s, and evidence from international comparisons of factor productivity indicate that the quality of economic growth in China is different from that of other economies. Evaluation of economic development should take into account both quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement. From this perspective, evaluation results indicate qualitative improvement in the Chinese economy after the mid-1990s.
基金The paper was excerpied from the major CASS project "Frontier Tracing and Comparative Study of the Macroeconomic Theories and Policies at Home and Abroad".
文摘The growth of the world economy in 2001 featured significant slowdowns, with various developed countries plunging into economic recessions or economic downturns synchronously. Against this context, China was able to maintain a 7.3 percent growth. A simple direct comparison of economic growth of all countries shows that China outshone all the others.
文摘I. IntroductionSince the "reform and opening up" policy began in 1978, China has sustained high growth. This success is associated with a gradual market-oriented reform. A central feature of this gradual reform is that the dominant state-owned enterprises have not been directly privatized; instead, the government chose to gradually introduce market forces into the economy, and at the same time, gradually reduce restrictions on the development of market-oriented non-state-owned enterprises, especially rural collective enterprises.
文摘The result of the macroeconomic climate index, released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on May 29, showed that in April the index remained stable for the fourth consecutive month. This contrasts with the four months from September 2007 onwards, when the index showed an "in-creasing" trend. Are the four "stable" indices after four "increasing" ones indications that China’s macroeconomy is moving "from a relatively fast growth to overheating?" When interviewed by China Economic Weekly, Xu Xianchun, Deputy Commissioner with the NBS, said that the Chinese economy is likely to enter a period of adjustment. In the next few years, China’s economic growth will drop gradually.
文摘The 2016 G20 Summit will be held in the Chinese city of Hangzhou under the theme of 'Building an innovative,invigorated,interconnected and inclusive world economy'and with the goals of transforming growth patterns in innovative ways,improving global economic and financial governance,promoting global trade and investment and nurturing inclusive and interconnected development.
文摘Manufacturing and sales According to data collected from 11,934 statistics-worthy Chinese cotton spinning enterprises surveyed by National Bureau of Statistics of China, total industrial production value of the industry increased 27.39
文摘Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank＇s analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China＇ s reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China＇ s rapid economic development. Implications for China＇s long-term economic development are thereby raised.
基金Beijing Research Centre of the Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era[Grant No.19LLLJA001].
文摘In the year 2021,China’s economy continues to recover and moves towards policy normalisation.This report identifies features indicating the beginning of China’s macroeconomic normalisation,the internal and external pressure it faces,and the supporting policies.Due to the economic recovery and the base effect,China’s real GDP growth rate is projected to reach above 8.0%in 2021,and the quarterly growth rate will drop from 18.3%in Q1 to 5.0%in Q4,showing a declining trend.Based on qualitative assessments and statistical forecasts,this report puts forward some policy suggestions.
