China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Developing Countries

The implementation of China’s open development strategy has unveiled a wave of outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)by Chinese companies,with global implications.Based on panel data from 146 developing countries from 2003 to 2017,we investigate the growth effects of China’s OFDI.We find that China’s OFDI has promoted significant economic growth in developing countries.Not only could China’s OFDI increase GDP per capita of a country in a short time but raise the country’s long-run equilibrium value as well.In addition,the growth effects of China’s OFDI were more significant for countries with weak governance,rich resource,and modest human capital,and were above the average level for Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)countries,African countries,and in the post-crisis era.Our research helps unravel the global significance of Chinese companies investing overseas and contributes to research on the growth effects of direct investment between developing countries.

An Empirical Study on the Relationship Between the Scale of International Students from ASEAN and China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment

With the further development of economic globalization since the establishment of ties between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) 30 years ago and the continuous increase in the scale of international students in China,the training of international talents has become an important approach to avoiding the risks of transnational investments.We established panel data by selecting variables from the period 2006 to 2017,including the scale of international students coming from ASEAN to China,the gross amount of China’s outward foreign direct investment(OFDI),and the GDP per capita of ASEAN countries to further explore the correlations among these variables.We applied a panel-vector autoregressive(PVAR) model to conducting a Granger causality test,a Gaussian mixture model(GMM) regression analysis,a Monte Carlo-based impulse response analysis,and variance decomposition of the data.The results show that the growth of OFDI exerted an obvious positive impact on the inflow of international students from the countries along the Belt and Road(B&R) within a short period,the growth of the scale of international students coming from these countries to study in China had a strong positive effect on OFDI,the training of international talents was conducive to promoting the scale of transnational investments,but the overall quality was not very high,and its economic contribution rate was low.It is also found that OFDI and the scale of international students from the countries along the B&R promoted the GDP growth to a certain extent and the positive accumulation effect fluctuated due to external factors.Therefore,it is suggested to expanding the scale of OFDI and improving China’s core competitiveness in international student education.Intensive management of investment factors should also be conducted along with sound development of training mechanisms for international talents.

Foreign Direct Investment with Chinese Characteristics:A Middle Path Between Ownership-Location-Internalization Model and Linkage-Leverage-Learning Model

The majority of multinational enterprises(MNEs) traditionally originate from developed countries.In the last ten years,however,there has been dramatic growth in foreign direct investment(FDI) from China.It is a comparatively new phenomenon that challenges the classic FDI theories.In this paper,we review the pros and cons of two important theories,known as the Ownership-Location-Internalization(OLI) model and Linkage-Leverage-Learning(LLL) model,and use the statistical data and company case studies from China to test the plausibility of these two models.We believe that neither of them suits totally: the OLI model is quite useful for understanding FDI from China to developing economies,while the LLL model is more powerful for explaining the FDI to developed economies.We argue that the companies from China attain a very advantageous position as intermediates in the global economy.They may catch up with the first movers if they integrate OLI-led and LLL-led FDI within one firm.This combination can bring together the most advanced knowledge acquired in developed economies with the knowledge about adaptation needs and the needs for cost reduction in production as expressed in developing economies.It may also accelerate the knowledge transfer globally.We thus fill a gap in research into the geographical pattern of Chinese FDI and offer a deeper understanding of the internationalization of Chinese MNEs and revolving knowledge transfer.

Forty Years Development of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment:Retrospect and the Challe nges Ahead

Outwardforeign direct investment(OFDI)has increasingly become an important method for China to integrate into the world economy.This paper comprehensively reviews and analyzes policy development and the changing pattern of China's OFDI over the past 40 years.We divide the development into"restricted”(1978-1999),"relaxed"(2000-2016)and"regulated",(2017 onwards)stages.This paper also reviews literature on the impact of Chinese OFDI on China and host countries.Despite its generally positive effects,large-scale and unbalanced OFDI activities have alarmed Chinese policymakers.Both developing and developed host countries have expressed their concern over national security and the misbehavior of some Chinese overseas enterprises.Therefore,greater supervision and adjustment from quantity to quality growth is necessary for the future development of China's OFDI.

Determinants of China’s outward foreign direct investment in Asia:a panel data analysis

This paper is an attempt to examine the trends and significant determinants of China’s outward foreign direct investment(OFDI)in Asia.In order to find out the important determinants of China’s OFDI in Asia,this study applies the panel data regression technique.The time period from 2006 to 2015 is taken into consideration.Econometric analysis has been done based on three data sets:the first includes 27 Asian countries/regions which attract Chinese OFDI.While Chinese Hong Kong is excluded from the sample,the second data set consists of 26 countries the same as those in data set one.The third data set comprises China’s top 12 destination countries of OFDI in Asia.The findings show that China’s OFDI has risen rapidly and secured the second rank globally,only behind the United States and surpassing Japan.For the first time,the flow of Chinese OFDI exceeded the level of inward foreign direct investment(IFDI),and Asia attracted a 74.4%share out of China’s total OFDI in 2015.The results reveal that inflation rate,export,import,corruption,infrastructure and geographic distance are the significant determinants of China’s investment in Asia.This paper provides new evidence on the determinants of China’s OFDI in Asia.By using currently available data of 27 Asian host countries,this paper offers a new insight into significant determinants of China’s OFDI in the region.

China’s foreign direct investment in BRICS countries:status,problems and prospects

The emerging economies,represented by the BRICS,have risen rapidly in post-crisis era in both economic development and national competitiveness.In order to ensure a stable and sustainable long-term development of national economy,the governments of BRICS countries have shown positive attitude to foreign direct investment.This is a great opportunity for China to increase its direct investment in these countries,which will not only provide strong support to China’s“going global”strategy,but also help avoid risks arising from intensive investment in its traditional investment regions.This article focuses on the status of Chinese outward direct investment in the BRICS countries by analyzing existing problems in investment process and providing forecast as well as future agenda on China’s direct investment in these countries.

东道国投资便利化及其对中国对外直接投资的影响——基于空间杜宾模型的实证检验

通过构建投资便利化指标体系,运用熵值法测度103个国家的投资便利化水平,并对其空间竞争性和β收敛情况进行分析,运用空间杜宾模型实证检验投资便利化对中国对外直接投资的空间效应。结果表明,全球国家的投资便利化水平稳步提升,但不同类型国家投资便利化指数的动态演进差异性较大,非“一带一路”国家和OECD国家的投资便利化水平更高,但其特征分化也更明显;投资便利化指数存在空间竞争性和β收敛,而空间因素能够加快收敛速度。东道国投资便利化提升不仅显著促进中国对东道国的直接投资增长,而且存在显著的空间溢出效应,其中,营商环境的空间溢出效应最明显,金融服务环境的空间溢出效应次之。本文揭示的东道国投资便利化的时空特征为中国对外直接投资高质量发展提供了实证依据。

中国对非援助的分配流向——基于对非投资和经济距离的视角

近年来,中国作为国际上新晋的“援助者”受到了广泛关注。采用2000—2014年中国对非洲53个国家提供援助的跨国面板数据,从对非投资和经济距离视角尝试分析中国对非援助分配的实际流向。研究结果表明:中国对非援助在首先考虑了受援国是否坚持一个中国基本原则之后,一方面立足长远照顾了经济距离较远的远亲关系,这种“舍近求远”的援助范式与中国式“工业强国”脱贫发展理念同源,体现了援助的帮扶本质。另一方面兼顾当前利益强化了经济距离较近的近邻关系,有助于获取本国投资收益,实现中非双方合作共赢。这种现象在官方援助、以发展为目的的援助和直接拨款的援助上表现得更为明显。细分行业看,中国的援助主要流向与中国基础设施行业间经济距离较小、制造业间经济距离较大的国家和地区。机制分析表明,对非投资通过改善受援国的发展潜力、发展风险以及发展基础等渠道显著影响中国对非援助的分配。中国援助分配偏好的规范选择和理性驱动双重属性使得这种新兴的国际开发合作范式更有利于中非各国发展的“友好共生”。

中欧投资协定升级对中欧贸易的影响——基于OFDI的中介效应分析

在中欧CAI谈判完成的背景下,文章概括了中国对欧盟OFDI及中欧贸易特征,总结了中欧BITs升级的政策背景及主要内容。基于2003—2019年的面板数据,通过构建中国对欧盟OFDI的中介效应模型,实证分析中欧BITs升级对中欧贸易的影响。研究发现:中欧BITs升级产生贸易创造效应,中国对欧盟OFDI发挥完全中介作用,且中国对欧盟OFDI产生的进口贸易创造效应更强,这将有利于减少欧盟对中国的贸易逆差。中方应积极参与国际投资规则变革,加大投资开放力度,中欧双方需加快推进中欧CAI批约进程,力争推动该协定早日签署生效。

“一带一路”倡议实施对中国在东盟直接投资的影响研究

对外直接投资是“一带一路”建设的核心环节和重要手段。东盟作为“一带一路”倡议实施的重要支点,是“一带一路”倡议实施的优先发展区域和关键领域。因此,推进中国与东盟在投资合作领域的发展成为“一带一路”倡议实施的重要环节,不仅给新型国际区域经济合作提供试验区,而且为“一带一路”倡议实施的推进提供示范区,还为中国与东盟双边经贸关系提供广阔的政策空间,也为人类命运共同体的构建提供样本。“一带一路”倡议实施的过程中,中国在东盟的直接投资规模整体处于稳定的上升状态。现阶段,随着RCEP的正式生效和中国-东盟全面战略伙伴关系的确定,中国-东盟自贸区升级版如何在“一带一路”背景下拓展投资合作领域和合作层次,并将“一带一路”建设纳入已有的合作框架,成为中国和东盟深化投资合作的重要内容。

中国对外直接投资特征与若干经济地理研究议题——基于中国对全球与东盟的投资分析

中国已经步入以"走出去"为鲜明特征的经济全球化新阶段。针对国内经济地理学对中国对外直接投资研究尚较少或刚起步的现状,从全球和东盟区域尺度分析了中国对外直接投资的企业类型、区位分布、行业领域和投资来源地等特征。据此围绕目前中国对外直接投资区位研究的一个争论,结合地理学关注空间差异、地方、嵌入等因素的视角,探讨了中国对外直接投资的若干研究议题,包括:1)东道国和母国之间的制度距离对中国对外直接投资区位选择的影响机制;2)中国境外企业在东道国的地方嵌入机制——或者说企业克服母国和东道国制度差距的模式;3)不同类型(国有/非国有)、不同投资动机的企业对外直接投资区位决策的差异;4)中国各地区对外直接投资的差异及其形成的原因和产生的影响。简言之,对中国对外直接投资的经济地理研究需要同时关注投资"流入地"和"流出地"的地理分异现象及其形成机制。

中国民营企业对美国直接投资的区位选择及其影响因子分析

美国是中国对外直接投资最重要的目的地国家,而其中民营企业是对美投资的突出力量。运用EXCEL和ARCGIS软件,定量分析了2000年至2013年中国民营企业对美国直接投资的州空间分布特征。运用灰色关联法,探讨了影响投资区位选择的因子,分析结论为:中国民营企业在美投资的空间格局呈现出集中于一点(五大湖地区)两带(太平洋沿岸和大西洋沿岸)的特征。投资动因具有明显的市场导向性和技术创新导向性。各州的GDP、对中国的进口贸易额、人口数、专利数量以及R&D支出是影响中国民营企业在美国直接投资区位选择的主要因子。

对外直接投资的母国经济增长效应——基于中国省级面板数据的考察

对外直接投资的母国经济增长效应在中国东部、中部和西部之间存在区域差异。全国、东部以及中部地区对外直接投资投资和经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系,而西部地区对外直接投资与经济增长之间不存在协整关系。东部地区对外直接投资对经济增长的促进效应大于全国和中部地区。对外直接投资对经济增长的短期效应要远远小于其长期效应。

中国对东盟投资与贸易的引力模型分析

贸易引力模型源于牛顿的万有引力定律,国内一些学者运用引力模型对中国与东盟之间的贸易进行了实证分析,研究了国际直接投资与两国距离、两国经济规模之间的关系,构建了中国与越南入境旅游的理论模型。然而尚未见到将外汇储备与关税引入对CAFTA的引力模型研究的文章,亦无运用引力模型研究中国对东盟的直接投资以及到访东盟各国的中国游客规模的文章。基于2000年至2009年的面板数据,建立起以东盟各国人均GDP、东盟各国领土面积、东盟各国外汇储备、中国人均GDP、中国外汇储备以及中国至东盟各国距离为自变量的引力模型,并运用Eviews5.0软件对中国对东盟直接投资、中国自东盟进口规模以及到访东盟各国的中国游客数量与各国人均GDP、各国外汇储备、距离以及面积之间的定量关系进行了回归分析。

中国对“一带一路”沿线国家直接投资的碳排放效应

确定中国对外直接投资(OFDI)对CO2排放的影响路径,对"一带一路"沿线国家如何有效利用中国OFDI以实现可持续发展具有重要作用。该研究基于2003—2018年45个沿线国家的面板数据,应用具有阈值和动态特征的面板平滑转换回归(PSTR)模型,评估中国OFDI对CO2排放的直接效应和间接效应、线性效应和非线性效应。研究发现:(1)中国OFDI对沿线国家CO2排放的直接影响显著为负。(2)中国OFDI的规模效应增加了沿线国家CO2排放,其结构效应和技术效应进一步抑制了沿线国家CO2排放,且技术效应在间接效应中占有主导地位。(3)异质性分析表明,中国OFDI的碳减排效应更多体现在低收入国家。针对以上研究发现,文章认为沿线国家应持续引进中国OFDI,并通过提高能效和推广应用清洁能源打破经济发展的"不可持续性";中国政府应继续鼓励并引导具有竞争力的企业"走出去",充分发挥中国投资对东道国环境的改善作用,放大中国投资对低收入国家的技术溢出效应;中国应根据沿线国家经济发展水平对东道国实施差异化投资策略,实现中国投资环境效益最优化。

影响中国林业企业对俄直接投资的经济、资源和制度因素

以2005—2017年中国对俄罗斯的FDI数据为样本,建立多元回归模型,实证分析了影响中国林业企业对俄直接投资的经济、资源、制度因素。结果表明:提高中俄贸易关系紧密度和人民币对卢布汇率能够促进中俄两国的林业投资合作,俄罗斯森林资源禀赋和原木产量的提高推动着中国林业企业在俄罗斯开展直接投资,中俄两国的法律制度差异、话语权和问责差异与中国林业企业对俄罗斯的FDI流量为负相关,然而两国的腐败遏制差异、政府效率差异对于中国林业企业在俄罗斯开展直接投资有着显著的正向影响。因此,应加强中俄两国政府的政策沟通和经济合作,有效规避汇率风险;增加中国的人工林培育面积;积极完善俄罗斯的制度质量,降低中国林业企业在俄罗斯的投资成本。

2000年以来中国对美国直接投资的时空演变

2000年以来,随着中国外向型经济的快速发展,以及中美经贸合作伙伴关系的不断深化,中国对美国直接投资规模持续扩大,至2012年,美国已成为接收中国对外直接投资最大的国家。利用地理集中指数和空间自相关,以美国50个州和哥伦比亚特区为研究单元,分析2000-2014年中国对美国直接投资的时空演变过程及发展趋势。结果表明:12000年以来COFDI在美国地域分布的不平衡程度有所下降,整体逐渐趋向均衡;2美国吸收COFDI的区域差异较大,南部地区总量领先但增速较慢,东北部、中西部、西部地区实力平均但增速较快,整体差距逐渐缩小;3在空间分布上,呈现由沿海向内陆,由南部向中西部扩散的趋势,表现为"以点带线,多点成面"的时空演化过程;4总体来看,COFDI的空间分布存在较弱的空间自相关性,集聚程度尚不显著,呈现"集聚—随机分布—离散"的空间形态,局部区域形成"冷、热区"的分化。

中国对外直接投资的贸易结构效应

中国正在成为全球越来越重要的贸易大国和对外投资国。对外直接投资的贸易效应不仅反映在贸易规模扩张方面,更重要的意义在于对外直接投资对贸易结构的影响。本文对1982-2010年中国对外直接投资的贸易结构效应进行时间序列分析,发现中国对外直接投资存量滞后二期对货物贸易结构变化有积极影响;通过对2006-2010年间的七个具体行业对外直接投资的贸易结构效应进行面板数据分析,证实对外直接投资流量和存量对这些行业的进口贸易结构变化影响更显著,但由于数据的原因仅通过了KAO检验。两种检验结果说明,随着中国对外直接投资的发展,无论对外直接投资存量还是流量都具有一定的贸易结构效应。

中国对缅甸直接投资的发展特征及趋势研究

随着中国-东盟自贸区的建立,中国与东南亚地区的经济合作不断加深。作为中国-东盟地缘经济合作的桥头堡,缅甸一直以来都是中国对外投资的热点区域。自军政府统治以来,由于和缅甸的传统友好关系,中国成为缅甸的最大的投资者,投资主要集中在油气资源、矿业资源、水电资源开发等资源相关领域,投资主体为大型的央企、国企等。地处地缘破碎地带,物产资源丰富,缅甸历来为战略要地。民主化改革后,众多大国势力进入对缅甸的投资和贸易,既在客观上对中国的对缅直接投资形成了竞争激励,又有主观上的挤压乃至遏制;随着缅甸国内边境战事的逐渐升级,中国企业对缅投资风险加大;中国企业对外投资未能更好融入当地,由此引发的群体性排华事件,也恶化了对缅的投资环境。未来中国对缅直接投资应进一步拓宽投资领域,融入多元的投资形式,着重对缅甸经济特区进行投资,并且在投资过程中兼顾各方利益。