Comparative Research on Prediction Model of China's Urban-rural Residents' Income Gap

By using the data concerning China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 1978 to 2010,this paper mainly researches the application of several kinds of models in predicting China's urban-rural residents' income gap.By conducting empirical analysis,we establish ARIMA prediction model,grey prediction model and quadratic-polynomial prediction model and conduct accuracy comparison.The results show that quadratic-polynomial prediction model has excellent fitting effect.By using quadratic-polynomial prediction model,this paper conducts prediction on trend of China's urban-rural residents' income gap from 2011 to 2013,and the prediction value of income gap of urban-rural residents in China from 2011 to 2013 is 14 173.20,15 212.92 and 16 289.67 yuan respectively.Finally,on the basis of analysis,corresponding countermeasures are put forward,in order to provide scientific basis for energy planning and policy formulation:first,strengthen government's function of public service,coordinate resources,and strive to provide an equal opportunity of development for social members,so as to promote people's welfare and promote social equality;second,breach industrial monopoly and bridge income gap between employees in monopoly industry and general industry;last but not the least,support,encourage and call for government to establish social relief fund,adjust residents' income distribution from the non-governmental perspective,and endeavor to promote the income level of low-income class.

Change Trend of Chinese Urban Residents' Food-nitrogen Consumption

Change trend of Chinese urban residents＇ per capita food-nitrogen annual consumption from 1981 to 2007 was analyzed and predicted by using ARIMA time-series model in order to reveal the change of urban food-nitrogen consumption during the China＇s urbanization process.Results showed that after 1980s,the annual consumption of Chinese urban residents＇ food-nitrogen had a change trend of ＂ increase-decrease-increase＂ and generally presented as a slight increasing trend;With the acceleration of rapid economic development and urbanization process,Chinese urban residents＇ food-nitrogen consumption will still keep a rising trend in future,and also has a large rising space.

Comparative Analysis of Urban-rural Residents' Propensity to Consume in China's Four Regions

According to the data in China Statistical Yearbook from 1992 to 2008,by using regression model,we adopt least square method and generalized least square method to conduct empirical analysis on the relationship between urban-rural residents' income and consumption in China's east,northeast,central region and west.The results show that the urban-rural residents' propensity to consume in China's four regions has prominent characteristics.In terms of region,urban residents' marginal propensity to consume takes on irregular fluctuation,while the rural residents' propensity to consume conforms to law of diminishing of marginal propensity to consume;in terms of time sequence,the rural residents' marginal propensity to consume in China's four regions takes on "multi-U-form" fluctuation trend,and the rural residents' marginal propensity to consume in different regions has certain difference,while the urban residents' marginal propensity to consume takes on low-frequency broad width fluctuation trend;the urban-rural residents' average marginal propensity to consume in China's four regions conforms to the law of diminishing.In order to increase consumption and promote the balanced rapid development of regional economy,in light of the urban-rural difference and characteristics of different regions,we should propound effective measures to promote urban-rural residents' propensity to consume,and formulate and implement regional policy in order to stimulate consumption.

Spatial Pattern of Long-term Residence in the Urban Floating Population of China and its Influencing Factors

Exploring long-term residence among the urban floating population is crucial to understanding urban growth in China,particularly since the 2008 financial crisis.By using China Migrants Dynamic Survey data for 2012–2014,China Labor-force Dynamics Survey data for 2014–2016,and macroscale urban matched data,we analyzed the spatial pattern of long-term residential behavior in China’s urban floating population in 2012–2016 and developed an urban spatial utility equilibrium model containing‘macro’urban factors and‘micro’individual and household factors to explain the pattern.The results first revealed that long-term residence is defined as≥6 yr for the urban floating population in China.Second,members of this population are more likely to be long-term residents of the megacities in the three urban agglomerations in eastern China as well as of small and medium-sized cities in western and northeastern China,whereas short-term residence is more likely in cities in central China and near the three urban agglomerations.Third,urban population density and housing prices,both have a significant U-shaped effect,are main factors affecting the spatial pattern of long-term residence.

URBAN COMPETITIVE PATTERN AND ITS CHANGES IN CHINA

With the national economy’s transition from a planning one to a market one, the factors affecting regional economic pattern has changed greatly. In this paper we first construct an index system for evaluating competitiveness of Chinese cities based on modern competitive advantage theory. With principal component analysis and cluster analysis methods, we compare the factors affecling cities’ integrated competitiveness in 1990 and 1997. We find that four major factors are capital (including investment, FDI and urban financial revenue ), urban ithestructure (transporiation and communication, urbanization level, education etc. ), industrial performance and structure, degree of market openness and that these factors have become more advanced and complicated since 1990. Most Chinese cities are transforming from productive factors-oriented type to investment-oriented type and a few are becoming innovation oriented. The integrated competitiveness is closely related to cities’ scale, urban function, regional policy and degree of market openness and displays an uneven spatial pattern. The difference between the south and the north and the difference between the west and the east co-exist bul the former has been more larger. Finally, we discuss the mechanism behind the pattern and attribute the unevenness to change of factors dominating the cities’ compehtiveness regional innovation capacity and geographical differenceof traditional culture.

China's Urbanization is Gaining Momentum

Alongside China’s rapid economic growth after the adoption of the reform and opening-up policy,urbanization has progressed fairly quickly. Since 1998 in particular the urbanization drive has been accelerating.What is the current status of China’s urbanization drive?In this article Cui Ruchun consults an enormous range of statistics to analyze China’s current urbanization level,urban economic development,infrastructure construction,environment construction, developments in science,technology and education,as well as the living standard of urban residents.

Minister Hou Jie on China's Housing Construction and Urban Development

At a reception held recently, Mr. Hou Jie, Minister of Construction, spoke about China’s housing construction and urban development. According to Mr. Hou Jie, the Chinese government always pays high attention to housing development, and has adopted many policies to speed up the construction of houses. Especially since 1979 when China introduced the policy of reform and opening, residential housing has developed rapidly and witnessed outstanding achievement. From 1979 to 1996, 13.8 billion square metres of residential

China's Social Security System for the Urban Poor

China'ssocialsecuritysystemiscomposedofthreefields:basiclivingsecurityforunemployedstaffandworkers,unemploymentinsuranceandminimumlivingseeurityforurbaninhabitants.Thebasiclivingconditionofunemployedstaffandworkersareguaranteedbyemploymentservicecent...

Survey of China's Urban Consumption

FromDecember1998toJune1999,theChinaMarketSupervisionundertheStateStatisticsBureauconductedsurveysontheconsumptiontrendsandlivesofChina'surbanresidentsamong5,000consumersin20cities,includingBeijing,Shanghai,Chengdu,Guangzhou,Wuhan,Naming,Qingdao,Dalia...

The Approaches to Narrowing Urban-Rural Income Gap——From the Perspective of Rural Social Security

From the situations about the incomes and life quality of the urban and rural residents,the thesis briefly introduces the status quo of the urban-rural income gap and explores the impact of the income gap on social economy:firstly,it hampers economic development;secondly,it is detrimental to the social development.Then the thesis analyzes the role of a sound social security in narrowing urban-rural income gap:at first,it broadens the institutional environment of improving the agricultural efficiency;secondly,it eliminates the uncertainties influencing the farmers' income;thirdly,it improves the farmers' capacity to increase income;at last,it enhances the farmers' consciousness of wealth.Next the thesis inquires into the problems existing in the system of rural social security:the first problem is more obviously fragmented system;the second is inadequate security projects and narrower coverage;the third is an obvious lack of equality in urban and rural security;the fourth is even less sound management system;the last is the lagging of legislation.Afterwards the thesis proposes the countermeasures and suggestions to improve the system of rural social security and narrow urban-rural income gap:firstly,to integrate the social security system in rural areas;secondly,to perfect security projects and enhance the security system;thirdly,to integrate the administrative management of social security;at last,to enforce the legal system.

Network analysis and spatial agglomeration of China’s high-speed rail: A dual network approach

China has the largest high-speed railway(HSR) system in the world, and it has gradually reshaped the urban network.The HSR system can be represented as different types of networks in terms of the nodes and various relationships(i.e.,linkages) between them. In this paper, we first introduce a general dual network model, including a physical network(PN)and a logical network(LN) to provide a comparative analysis for China’s high-speed rail network via complex network theory. The PN represents a layout of stations and rail tracks, and forms the basis for operating all trains. The LN is a network composed of the origin and destination stations of each high-speed train and the train flows between them. China’s high-speed railway(CHSR) has different topological structures and link strengths for PN in comparison with the LN. In the study, the community detection is used to analyze China’s high-speed rail networks and several communities are found to be similar to the layout of planned urban agglomerations in China. Furthermore, the hierarchies of urban agglomerations are different from each other according to the strength of inter-regional interaction and intra-regional interaction, which are respectively related to location and spatial development strategies. Moreover, a case study of the Yangtze River Delta shows that the hub stations have different resource divisions and are major contributors to the gap between train departure and arrival flows.

Evolution Process of Urban Spatial Pattern in Hubei Province Based on DMSP/OLS Nighttime Light Data

This paper intends to investigate the urban spatial patterns of Hubei Province and its evolution from three different perspectives: urban nodes, urban connections and urban clusters. The research adopts nighttime light imagery of cities in Hubei Province, the viewpoint of ′point-axis-area′ in the ′point-axis system′ theory, and employs light index model, gravity model and social network analysis. The findings are as follows: 1) In terms of urban nodes, the urbanization process of Hubei has been carried out mainly on the basis of external expansion rather than internal increasing. The polarization trend of urban connection network is strengthening. 2) As for urban connections, the estimation of urban connections using light index model is capable of containing various actual flow, and the connections are getting increasingly closer. 3) In regard to urban groups, seven urban groups of varying sizes have formed. On that basis, three stable and relatively independent urban groups as the centers, namely Wuchang, Yichang and Xiangyang emerge as well. But the structures of ′Wuhan Metropolitan Area′, ′Yichang-Jingzhou-Jingmen City Group′ and ′Xiangyang-Shiyen-Suizhou City Group′, which are defined by local development strategy in Hubei Province, are different from the above three urban groups.

基于ELES模型的中部六省城镇居民消费结构分析

中部地区作为连接东西、贯穿南北的交通要道,具有庞大的人口和自然资源,城镇居民消费结构差异较大。本文运用ELES模型分析中部六省城镇居民消费结构特征,结果显示:当收入增加时,中部六省城镇居民消费结构存在明显的升级现象,享受及发展型商品消费支出增长速度较快,交通通信和居住成为城镇居民的消费重点。基于以上结果,本文提出重视城镇居民收入的提高,发挥政府的引导职能,完善社会保障体系,合理优化消费结构等政策建议,以期为中部六省城镇居民消费结构的进一步升级提供发展方向。

LESSONS FROM EUROPE FOR CHINA?New Urban Sub-Centres for a Polycentric Network City

This paper compares two cases:It relates to the development of new urban sub-centres in China,and the relationship of these sub-centres to‘Network City’theory.As cities move towards more polycentric systems,the case of Potsdamer Platz Berlin,compared to Zhenru Sub-Centre in Shanghai,is discussed.Both are transport-oriented developments promoting mixed-use density and transport-oriented development.According to the documentation by Shanghai municipality,this new urban centre,which is currently in its planning phase,is supposed to become a‘sustainable sub-centre for a growing metropolis.’The author,who has intimate knowledge of the Berlin case,was asked to advice on the Chinese project,based on the Potsdamer Platz experience.After some hesitation,a series of careful recommen­dations were formulated for the design and development of the Zhenru Sub-Centre,knowing that it is rather difficult to translate from one case to the other.The conclusion includes five recommendations for the urban design of such sub-centres,to ensure a delivery of economical,social and environmental sustainable outcomes.