In the context of China's efforts to establish a global network of free trade areas and diversify its export products, this study explores the impact of trade agreement depth on China's export diversification....In the context of China's efforts to establish a global network of free trade areas and diversify its export products, this study explores the impact of trade agreement depth on China's export diversification. Building upon a trade model with multiproduct firms, we discover that the effect of trade agreement depth on export diversification is multifaceted, depending on the relative magnitude of the “market expansion effect” and the “competition intensification effect.” Through empirical analysis of China's exports to 132 countries (or regions) from 2000 to 2015, we find that the deepening of trade agreements affected China's export diversification negatively. This negative correlation was predominantly due to the similarity in comparative advantages between China and its trade partners, leading to the “competition intensification effect” overshadowing the “market expansion effect.” We also note that “natural” agreements, when deepened, were more likely to affect China's export diversification adversely than their “non-natural” counterparts. Moreover, as export diversification increased, the marginal impact of deepening trade agreements exhibited an inverted U-shaped trajectory.展开更多
基金The authors are grateful for support from the China National Social Science Foundation(Nos.19BJY192 and 23BGL151).
文摘In the context of China's efforts to establish a global network of free trade areas and diversify its export products, this study explores the impact of trade agreement depth on China's export diversification. Building upon a trade model with multiproduct firms, we discover that the effect of trade agreement depth on export diversification is multifaceted, depending on the relative magnitude of the “market expansion effect” and the “competition intensification effect.” Through empirical analysis of China's exports to 132 countries (or regions) from 2000 to 2015, we find that the deepening of trade agreements affected China's export diversification negatively. This negative correlation was predominantly due to the similarity in comparative advantages between China and its trade partners, leading to the “competition intensification effect” overshadowing the “market expansion effect.” We also note that “natural” agreements, when deepened, were more likely to affect China's export diversification adversely than their “non-natural” counterparts. Moreover, as export diversification increased, the marginal impact of deepening trade agreements exhibited an inverted U-shaped trajectory.
