The Situation of Southeast Asia in 2017 and Assessment of Its Relations with China

The situation in Southeast Asia in 2017 was generally stable,as relations with China continued to improve,and progress in maritime consultations continued to develop.I.The political situation is stable and generally manageable Stability is manifested in the following aspects.The governments of the Philippines,Myanmar,Vietnam,Laos are seeking stability and good governance.

Relations Between China and Central Asian Countries Face Opportunity of All-Round Development

Since the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and its western neighbors - the Central Asian countries, the friendly and good-neighborly relationship between the two sides has kept a sound momentum of development. China’s policy of creating an amicable, secure and

Viewing Adjustment of Europe-Asia Relations from Asia-Europe Meeting

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Central Asia’s Foreign Relations:A Comparison Between the Soviet and Post-Soviet Era

Central Asia’s pivotal geographical position allowed it to play an essential role in relations among nations of Eurasia in the Middle Ages,as the bridge between China and Europe.Yet,during the Russian and then the Soviet rule on Central Asia,the region’s republics had no independent position in international community as foreign relations were formed and managed by central government in Moscow.The collapse of the Union of Soviet in 1991 made salient the geopolitical,economic,and cultural importance of the five former Soviet Central Asian republics.Accordingly,the republics reemerged as independent actors in the global interstate system and could play a role in international affairs during the last three decades.This paper aims to compare Central Asia’s foreign relations in the Soviet and Post-Soviet era.

Asia in the Era of Globalization and Prospect for Japan-China Relations

Introduction I am honored to have this opportunity to address the distinguished experts of the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies,SIIS on the issue of Asia in the Era of Globalization and Prospect for Japan-China Relations.I wish to thank Dr.Yang Jiemian。

A Review of Studies on Sino-Vietnam Relations Under Tributary System(AD 968-1885)

For a long time,the concept“Nei Wai(内外―center-periphery)”has been used to construct the narrative of the backwarded pre-modern East Asian history.While over emphasizing the effect of the center(Nei),it just simply ignored the reactions from the marginal entities(Wai),as ancient China and its neighboring countries’tributary relations could offer us the classic paradigm.In the knowledge world and historical writing records before the establishment of the national states,the period after Vietnam politically independent to China,the most intricate relations between the two countries,or dynasties,we could still find so many similarities of politics and culture in China and Vietnam,which is far beyond the summarized conditions as tributary relations.On the basis of the previous academic construction of Zong Fan relations and applying the research path of decentralization in the view of global history,we can explore and interpret such tributary and diplomatic relations from various perspectives and thus a multi-dimensional,high definition and colorful past of communications between countries is projected to us by the voiceless,motionless,and monotone historical materials.

Measuring and preventing alcohol use and related harm among young people in Asian countries:a thematic review

Background:The paper reviews alcohol consumption patterns and alcohol-related social and health issues among 15-29-year old young people in Asian countries,and discusses strategies for preventing and controlling alcohol use and related harms.Methods:We searched Google Scholar,PubMed,and Web of Science for reports,reviews and journal articles published in English between 1st Jan 1990 and 31st August 2016.Results:Forty-one reports,reviews and journal papers were identified and included in the final review.The current drinking levels and prevalence among young people are markedly different between eight included Asian countries,ranging from 4.2%in Malaysia to 49.3%in China.In a majority of the selected Asian countries,over 15%of total deaths among young men and 6%among young women aged 15-29 years are attributable to alcohol use.Alcohol use among young people is associated with a number of harms,including stress,family violence,injuries,suicide,and sexual and other risky behaviours.Alcohol policies,such as controlling sales,social supply and marketing,setting up/raising a legal drinking age,adding health warning labels on alcohol containers,and developing a surveillance system to monitor drinking pattern and risky drinking behaviour,could be potential means to reduce harmful use of alcohol and related harm among young people in Asia.Conclusions:The review reveals that drinking patterns and behaviours vary across eight selected Asian countries due to culture,policies and regional variations.The research evidence holds substantial policy implications for harm reduction on alcohol drinking among young people in Asian countries-especially for China,which has almost no alcohol control policies at present.

冷战后美国朝核政策的嬗变及其深层困境——基于强制外交与威慑理论的考量

冷战结束远未消弭朝鲜半岛的安全困境与军事对峙。自1993年第一次朝核危机爆发以来,美国不断加大对朝鲜的围堵施压,却未能阻止朝鲜跨越“核门槛”。当前,美朝核政策重点正从强制朝鲜弃核转向管控朝核风险、维护美在大国竞争与东北亚格局中的主导权,但亦未取得预想成效。冷战后美国的朝核政策同时包含了强制外交与威慑的意涵,其困境主要源于对朝政权基本安全诉求的严重忽视,以及对朝鲜半岛复杂情势与历史纠葛的简单化处理。文章在借鉴罗伯特·杰维斯等人对西方传统强制外交与威慑理论局限性批判的基础上,进一步将影响美朝核政策嬗变的因素区分为国内、地区和国际三个层级,以期更好解析与评估美国朝核政策嬗变的内在机理和走向。

Reassessment of petrogenesis of Carboniferous—Early Permian rift-related volcanic rocks in the Chinese Tianshan and its neighboring areas

The Carboniferous-Early Permian rift-related volcanic successions, covering large areas in the Chinese Tianshan and its adjacent areas, make up a newly recognized important Phanerozoic large igneous province in the world, which can be further divided into two sub-provinces： Tianshan and Tarim. The regional unconformity of Lower Carboniferous upon basement or pre-Carboniferous rocks, the ages （360--351 Ma） of the youngest ophiolite and the peak of subduction metamorphism of high pressure-low temperature metamorphic belt and the occurrence of Ni-Cu-bearing mafic-ultramafic intrusion with age of ~352 Ma and A-type granite with age of ~358 Ma reveal that the final closure of the Paleo-Asian Ocean might take place in the Early Mississippian. Our summation shows that at least four criteria, being normally used to identify ancient asthenosphere upwelling （or mantle plumes）, are met for this large igneous province： （1） surface uplift prior to magmatism; （2） being associated with continental rifting and breakup events; （3） chemical characteristics of asthenosphere （or plume） derived basalts; （4） close links to large-scale mineralization and the uncontaminated basalts, being analogous to those of many ＂ore-bearing＂ large igneous provinces, display Sr-Nd isotopic variations between plume and EMI geochemical signatures, These suggest that a Carboniferous asthenosphere upwelling and an Early Permian plume played the central role in the generation of the Tianshan--Tarim （central Asia） large igneous province.

Low-carbon economic development in Central Asia based on LMDI decomposition and comparative decoupling analyses

Low-carbon economic development is a strategy that is emerging in response to global climate change. Being the third-largest energy base in the world, Central Asia should adopt rational and efficient energy utilization to achieve the sustainable economic development. In this study, the logarithmic mean Divisia index(LMDI) decomposition method was used to explore the influence factors of CO2 emissions in Central Asia(including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Turkmenistan) during the period 1992–2014. Moreover, decoupling elasticity and decoupling index based on the LMDI decomposition results were employed to explore the relationship between economic growth and CO2 emissions during the study period. Our results show that the total CO2 emissions decreased during the period 1992–1998, influenced by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and the subsequent financial crisis. After 1998, the total CO2 emissions started to increase slowly along with the economic growth after the market economic reform. Energy-related CO2 emissions increased in Central Asia, mainly driven by economic activity effect and population effect, while energy intensity effect and energy carbon structure effect were the primary factors inhibiting CO2 emissions. The contribution percentages of these four factors(economic activity effect, population effect, energy intensity effect and energy carbon structure effect) to the total CO2 emissions were 11.80%, 39.08%, –44.82% and –4.32%, respectively, during the study period. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan released great quantities of CO2 with the annual average emissions of 189.69×106, 45.55×106 and 115.38×106 t, respectively. In fact, their economic developments depended on high-carbon energies. The decoupling indices clarified the relationship between CO2 emissions and economic growth, highlighting the occurrence of a ’’weak decoupling’’ between these two variables in Central Asia. In conclusion, our results indicate that CO2 emissions are still not completely decoupled from economic growth in Central Asia. Based on these results, we suggest four key policy suggestions in this paper to help Central Asia to reduce CO2 emissions and build a resource-conserving and environment-friendly society.

Predictors of Performance of the Maritime Academy of Asia and the Pacific （MAAP） in the OIC Navigational Watch Licensure Examination

Abstract： The study aimed to assess the predictors of performance administered by the Philippine Regulation Commission （PRC） in the licensure examination of Maritime Academy of Asia and the Pacific （MAAP） for Academic Year 2007-2011. Specifically, this also aimed to answer the following questions： demographic profile of the maritime graduates, the college related factors, administrative related factors, the level of scholastic achievement of the graduates, and the performance of the graduates in the licensure examination. A total of one hundred seventy three （173） graduates of MAAP from Class 2007-2011 were utilized as the respondents for the study. The study found out that the results of pre board examination and scholastic achievement of the graduates had significant effect on the performance of the graduates in O.I.C Navigational Watch Licensure Examination. Other variables found out to have no significant effect on the result of the licensure examination of the graduates. Therefore, the null hypotheses that the demographic profile of the graduates, college related factors, and administrative related factors has no significant effect on scholastic the achievement of the students were accepted. However, the null hypothesis that scholastic achievement of the students has no significant effect on the performance in maritime licensure examination was rejected. The same way, the null hypothesis that the demographic profile of the graduates, college related factors and the administrative related factors has no significant effect on the performance in Officer in Charge--Navigational Watch licensure Examination were accepted.

2023年泰国研究发展报告

2022年9月区域国别学成为交叉学科门类下的一级学科,2023年是区域国别学学科建设的开局之年。泰国一直是区域国别学研究的重要国家之一。泰国的王朝政治、民族意识、社会文化、历史记忆、华侨华人以及地缘战略等问题是中外学者的研究重点,相关研究理论成果相对丰硕。这既为新时代背景下的泰国国别学研究奠定了坚实的基础,也为有效回应构建中泰命运共同体的现实需要提供了理论支持。为此,总结梳理2023年中外学者的泰国研究主要的议题与研究动态,把握泰国区域国别学研究方向与发展趋势,反思其研究存在不足并进行未来研究展望是必要且具有重要的理论和实践价值。

China-Central Asia Power Cooperation Outlook

After analyzing the basic information,distribution of energy resources and condition of power industry in Central Asia,the high feasibility for China to cooperate closely with Central Asia in transnational power interconnection,power investment and technology exchanges,etc.is studied.Furthermore,the forms,mechanisms,existing problems and suggestions for the improvement of current policies related to the power cooperation are proposed.

英国东印度公司与马戛尔尼使华

1793—1794年马戛尔尼使华是中西关系史上具有重大影响的事件,事关英国在东方的利益,与垄断对华贸易的英国东印度公司的利益则具有直接关系。但东印度公司领导层对遣使一事,态度消极,认为使团的最重要目标,是不对现状造成削弱和损害。这是因为他们对英国政府实施“抵代法”后中英贸易的发展趋势,以及以茶叶贸易为纽带与中国行商之间形成的合作关系,均感到相当满意。他们认为,与维持这种现状所带来的利益相比,长期以来广州口岸中西贸易中累积的一些问题和矛盾也不必急于解决。针对马戛尔尼提出的有关计划,东印度公司领导层加以抵制,经过双方的妥协,才达成合作的协议。在马戛尔尼出使中国期间,东印度公司广州商馆秘密与监督委员会进行了若干方面的合作和支持。马戛尔尼在华期间,特别是在离开北京南下和在广州短期逗留期间,为争取改善英商的贸易条件与中国官员交涉,符合东印度公司的利益。但这种努力最终并未得到具体结果。

美国政治极化与亚太战略风险

政治极化,特别是民主、共和两党的党争极化,是当前美国政治的突出现象。美国民主、共和两党不仅在意识形态取向和重大国内外政策上分歧严重,双方对对方的“情感温度”也急剧下降。美国的极化政治波及对外政策的制定,导致其对外政策缺乏连贯性,过分夸大外部威胁,且过分强调美国优先。极化政治下的美国对外政策,不仅可能加剧中美对抗风险,也会给亚太地区的和平、稳定与繁荣蒙上阴影。

东亚乡村振兴社会政策的基本经验及总体评价

与欧美国家社会政策天然带有的工业主义和城市中心取向不同,东亚国家在关注城市社会政策的同时,面对乡村的转型和衰败,积极采取政策措施,构建起较为系统的乡村振兴社会政策体系。在该政策体系下,东亚各国对城乡关系问题实施长期跟踪的政策调节,强调村落、社区等地域组织的政策实施和联结作用,重视乡村特殊群体社会政策体系建构,以发展型社会政策激活乡村组织的内生发展动力,通过乡村文化振兴推进村落活性化,形成了城乡并举的社会政策总体格局。东亚乡村振兴社会政策及其实践积累了较为丰富的以乡村社会政策调适城乡关系、推进城乡社会均衡发展的有益经验,为世界社会政策学科的理念提升和研究范围拓展作出了重要贡献。

零度偏离视阈下中亚五国华语关系词重构

关系词的作用是“介绍”和“连接”,包括介词和连词。倘若把“普通话关系词”视为共时平面下操作的零度,“中亚五国华语关系词”则是在共时平面下对“普通话关系词”这个操作的零度的偏离。以“零度偏离”为理论基础,描写零度偏离视阈下中亚五国华语介词重构的偏离形式和零度偏离视阈下中亚五国华语连词重构的偏离形式,阐释中亚五国华语介词重构和中亚五国华语连词重构的原因。

拜登政府时期美韩同盟升级及中国对策

拜登政府上台以来不断恢复并强化美韩同盟关系,在尹锡悦政府上台后美韩同盟由传统的军事安全同盟逐步升级为全球全面战略同盟。美韩同盟升级呈现为:美国修复并加强美韩同盟关系,构建美日韩三边“准同盟”;韩国安全上继续追随美国,经济上深度捆绑美国。拜登政府“拉韩制华”的地缘战略考量与尹锡悦政府“倚美亲美”的追随外交共同作用,形成合力。从升级效果上看,美韩同盟升级加剧了朝鲜半岛的紧张局势和南北双方的安全困境,降低了韩国外交政策的独立性和自主性,反噬了韩国国家安全。但同盟仍受到美韩国内政治因素、韩日历史因素的制约。为应对同盟升级的对华指向,中国应该及时捕捉对话时机,加强中韩高层交往,加深经济合作以及拓宽民间沟通,为自身营造相对安全、宽松的周边环境。

中国式现代化视域下的东北亚区域合作

东北亚是世界最重要的经济区域之一。近代以来,愈演愈烈的殖民地与霸权争夺给东北亚留下了巨大战争创伤。二战后,大国博弈跌宕起伏使东北亚区域经济合作面临诸多困难与障碍。改革开放后,中国与世界关系发生改变,东北亚国际关系与秩序也从以分裂、对抗为主转向以和平、稳定为主,为区域合作提供了可能性。通过和平发展,中国成为世界上第一个不按照西方模式崛起的大国,引领和推动中美关系日趋稳定与均衡,东北亚正在成为世界首个告别因“国强必霸”导致大国武力相向历史的地区。伴随中国式现代化全面推进和中美互动的深化,中日韩平衡、稳定、边界明晰的三边关系框架日渐清晰;伴随中国超大规模市场和强大生产能力的形成,中美、中日韩经贸关系日趋紧密。东北亚以共处共生共享为特征的新型区域合作模式日益浮出水面,三国已就签署自由贸易协定达成战略共识。