Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening th...Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening the welfare state. Intemationally, Trumponomics embraces protectionism and nativism with a focus on US economic interests. Trumponomics caters to the lower-middle classes, a reflection of the country＇s current economic and diplomatic challenges. Trumponomics will bring uncertainty to China-US economic and trade relations. China should carefully study the policies of the Trump administration and prepare contingency plans.展开更多
In order to find indications for future bilateral relations, it is worth reviewing the development of China-US economic and trade relations in recent history. Generally speaking, the nine years between 2007 and 2015 s...In order to find indications for future bilateral relations, it is worth reviewing the development of China-US economic and trade relations in recent history. Generally speaking, the nine years between 2007 and 2015 saw non-stop progress in China and US trade and economic ties. The China-US interdependent and complementary economic and trade connections ensure that bilateral relations are constantly developing and merging following their interdependent paths;the global challenges, such as the financial crisis and recent extreme weather events, have allowed China and the US to be in the same boat,weathering these different forms of turbulence. Decisions on important domestic policies and disputes can now be discussed earlier and effectively following on from the construction of multi-dimensional crisis management mechanisms. But undeniably there are unsettled and conflicting points in their relations, such as the fact that the US strategically excludes China from its free trade agenda, not willing to accept many everyday items manufactured by China. This is a major obstacle preventing their relationships deepening. History tells us, in future, if both sides could have a bigger vision, relations would better develop, for the new type of major power relations and the subsequent road would be less rocky and bring more benefits for the peoples of both countries.展开更多
Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalizatio...Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.展开更多
This study reassesses the macroeconomic and social impacts of Economic Partnership Agreements （EPAs） on Ivorian economy using Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model with positive externalities of public invest...This study reassesses the macroeconomic and social impacts of Economic Partnership Agreements （EPAs） on Ivorian economy using Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model with positive externalities of public investment in education, health, and economic infrastructure. Previous studies highlight negative effect of these agreements stressing particularly on losses in government revenues due to the removal of all tariffs on imports. This analysis aims to provide some insight into this question by refreshing the debate to show how this situation could be transformed into opportunities for Ivory Coast in order to promote growth and reduce poverty. To do so, this study postulates that government spending （investment） in economic infrastructure （roads, bridges, communication network, etc.）, in education and health sectors produces positive externalities in each industry. This assumption has not been set anymore in previous studies. Simulation results reveal that, despite this decline in government revenues, if it invests in economic infrastructure, health and education sector, EPAs will generate more revenue for government due to the rise in income tax on firms and households, and tax on overall production. Furthermore, household income will increase which will in turn stimulate （final） consumption. There won＇t also be a decline in economic growth.展开更多
文摘Since he took office, the new US president, Donald Trump, has unveiled his broad economic policy--now called Trumponomics. It emphasizes neoliberalism at home, less government regulations, more growth and weakening the welfare state. Intemationally, Trumponomics embraces protectionism and nativism with a focus on US economic interests. Trumponomics caters to the lower-middle classes, a reflection of the country＇s current economic and diplomatic challenges. Trumponomics will bring uncertainty to China-US economic and trade relations. China should carefully study the policies of the Trump administration and prepare contingency plans.
文摘In order to find indications for future bilateral relations, it is worth reviewing the development of China-US economic and trade relations in recent history. Generally speaking, the nine years between 2007 and 2015 saw non-stop progress in China and US trade and economic ties. The China-US interdependent and complementary economic and trade connections ensure that bilateral relations are constantly developing and merging following their interdependent paths;the global challenges, such as the financial crisis and recent extreme weather events, have allowed China and the US to be in the same boat,weathering these different forms of turbulence. Decisions on important domestic policies and disputes can now be discussed earlier and effectively following on from the construction of multi-dimensional crisis management mechanisms. But undeniably there are unsettled and conflicting points in their relations, such as the fact that the US strategically excludes China from its free trade agenda, not willing to accept many everyday items manufactured by China. This is a major obstacle preventing their relationships deepening. History tells us, in future, if both sides could have a bigger vision, relations would better develop, for the new type of major power relations and the subsequent road would be less rocky and bring more benefits for the peoples of both countries.
文摘Thailand has currently enhanced and promoted intensive trade and investment liberalization and implemented long-term growth policy according with current regional economic integration, WTO obligations and globalization. Nevertheless, several recent internal and external factors e.g. the massive SARS and avian flu outbreaks, the Indian Ocean tsunami devastation, the Asia financial crisis and domestic policy reforms （ICSEAD, 2006） have also impeded this policy. While the issues are important for Thailand and developing countries in Asia, only limited research has been undertaken to investigate them. The paper conducts a substantive quantitative study to contribute to these trade and development policy issues. A new econometric modelling policy method, namely the generalized gravity theory （Tran Van Hoa, 2004） is used to develop a simple flexible simultaneous-equation econometric model of Thailand＇s openness model with its seven major trade partners （ASEAN-4, Australia, the USA, the EU, China, Japan and India）. Using data from the ICSEAD, the World Development Indicators and the Bank of Thailand databases, the paper reveals efficient and reliable empirical findings on trade-growth causality, trade determination including the impact of shocks and policy reform on trade and growth between Thailand and its major trade partners over the past two decades. The paper also provides evidence on the linkages between trade in goods, FDI and services and regional economic integration for more credible policy implications.
文摘This study reassesses the macroeconomic and social impacts of Economic Partnership Agreements （EPAs） on Ivorian economy using Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） model with positive externalities of public investment in education, health, and economic infrastructure. Previous studies highlight negative effect of these agreements stressing particularly on losses in government revenues due to the removal of all tariffs on imports. This analysis aims to provide some insight into this question by refreshing the debate to show how this situation could be transformed into opportunities for Ivory Coast in order to promote growth and reduce poverty. To do so, this study postulates that government spending （investment） in economic infrastructure （roads, bridges, communication network, etc.）, in education and health sectors produces positive externalities in each industry. This assumption has not been set anymore in previous studies. Simulation results reveal that, despite this decline in government revenues, if it invests in economic infrastructure, health and education sector, EPAs will generate more revenue for government due to the rise in income tax on firms and households, and tax on overall production. Furthermore, household income will increase which will in turn stimulate （final） consumption. There won＇t also be a decline in economic growth.
