Impacts of artificial dams on terrestrial water storage changes and the Earth's elastic load response during 1950-2016: A case study of medium and large reservoirs in Chinese mainland

The construction of dams for intercepting and storing water has altered surface water distributions, landsea water exchanges, and the load response of the solid Earth. The lack of accurate estimation of reservoir properties through the land surface and hydrological models can lead to water storage simulation and extraction errors. This impact is particularly evident in many artificial reservoirs in China. The study aims to comprehensively assess the spatiotemporal distribution and trends of water storage in medium and large reservoirs(MLRs) in Chinese mainland during 1950-2016, and to investigate the gravity,displacement, and strain effects induced by the reservoir mass concentration using the load elasticity theory. In addition, the impoundment contributions of MLRs to the relative sea level changes were assessed using a sea-level equation. The results show impoundment increases in the MLRs during1950-2016, particularly in the Yangtze River(Changjiang) and southern basins, causing significant elastic load effects in the surrounding areas of the reservoirs and increasing the relative sea level in China's offshore. However, long-term groundwater estimation trends are overestimated and underestimated in the Yangtze River and southwestern basins, respectively, due to the neglect of the MLRs impacts or the uncertainty of the hydrological model's output(e.g., soil moisture, etc.). The construction of MLRs may reduce the water mass input from land to the ocean, thus slowing global sea level rise. The results of the impact of human activities on the regional water cycle provide important references and data support for improving the integration of hydrological models, evaluating Earth's viscoelastic responses under longterm reservoir storage, enhancing in-situ and satellite geodetic measurements, and identifying the main factors driving sea level changes.

Towards fast focal mechanism inversion of shallow crustal earthquakes in the Chinese mainland

We have developed an automatic regional focal mechanism inversion system based on the Earthquake Rapid Report(ERR) system and the real-time three-component seismic waveform stream of 1 000 broadband seismic stations provided by the China Earthquake Networks Center(CENC). The system can rapidly provide a double couple solution and centroid depth within 5–15 min after receiving earthquake information from the ERR system.The data processing is triggered by earthquake information obtained from the ERR system. The system is capable of determining the focal mechanism of all shallow-depth earthquakes in the Chinese mainland with a magnitude of 5.5–6.5. It utilizes waveform data recorded by seismic stations located within 500 km from the epicenter,enabling the reporting of a focal mechanism solution within 5–15 min of an earthquake occurrence. Additionally,the system can assign a corresponding grade(A B C) to the focal mechanism solution. We processed a total of 301earthquakes that occurred from 2021 to June 2022, and after the quality control, 166 of them were selected.These selected solutions were manually checked, and 160 of them were compiled in a focal mechanism catalog.This catalog can be conveniently downloaded online via the Internet. The automatic focal mechanism solution of earthquakes in eastern China exhibits a good agreement with that provided by the Global Centroid Moment Tensor(GCMT), when available. The average Kagan angle between this catalog and GCMT is 22°, and the average difference in MWis 0.17. Furthermore, compared with GCMT, the minimum magnitude of our catalog has been reduced from approximately 5.0 to 4.0. The correlation between the centroid depth and crustal thickness in the Chinese mainland confirms the distribution of the centroid depth.

Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.Based on the strong earthquake recurrence model,the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault,which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology,geodesy,and historical earthquake records.Based on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world,this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap,motion strongly locked,sparse small-moderate earthquakes,and apparent Coulomb stress increase.This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese mainland.The present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations;the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.

A deep-learning-based approach for seismic surface-wave dispersion inversion(SfNet)with application to the Chinese mainland

Surface-wave tomography is an important and widely used method for imaging the crust and upper mantle velocity structure of the Earth.In this study,we proposed a deep learning(DL)method based on convolutional neural network(CNN),named SfNet,to derive the vS model from the Rayleigh wave phase and group velocity dispersion curves.Training a network model usually requires large amount of training datasets,which is labor-intensive and expensive to acquire.Here we relied on synthetics generated automatically from various spline-based vS models instead of directly using the existing vS models of an area to build the training dataset,which enhances the generalization of the DL method.In addition,we used a random sampling strategy of the dispersion periods in the training dataset,which alleviates the problem that the real data used must be sampled strictly according to the periods of training dataset.Tests using synthetic data demonstrate that the proposed method is much faster,and the results for the vS model are more accurate and robust than those of conventional methods.We applied our method to a dataset for the Chinese mainland and obtained a new reference velocity model of the Chinese continent(ChinaVs-DL1.0),which has smaller dispersion misfits than those from the traditional method.The high accuracy and efficiency of our DL approach makes it an important method for vS model inversions from large amounts of surface-wave dispersion data.

Surface wave tomography of the crust and upper mantle of Chinese mainland and its neighboring region

The three dimensional S wave velocity structure of the crust and upper mantle of Chinese mainland and its neighboring region is obtained by genetic algorithm of surface wave tomography, with smoothness constraint, based on 25 wave group velocities for the periods from 10 s to 92 s, measured from long period Rayleigh waves recorded by 11 stations of CDSN and 12 digital seismometers surrounding China. The S wave velocity image is shown on two latitudinal sections along 30°N and 38°N, two longitudinal sections along 90°E and 120°E, and four horizontal slices at the different depths.

Boundary conditions of the dynamicnumerical model for the Chinese mainland lithosphere

The numerical dynamic model of Chinese mainland lithosphere's stress and strain field was constructed withelasto-viscous creep constitive relation. The most recent data of the stress field of Chinese mainland and thehorizontal movement velocity of the crust blocks were used as constraint conditions. The values of the boundalsforce were computed by trial-and-error method. The effect of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau's excess potential energyto the movement of Chinese mainland was studied also in this model. The results of the numerical computing showthat, recent rapid raising of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the generation of normal faults in the southem part ofthe plateau resulted from the convergence of Indian Plate to the Eurasian Plate, and also from the rapid convectivethinning of the lower lithosphere. Horizontal extension of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau is the main dynamic factorto torm the present tectonic framework of the Chinese mainland. The compressive loads on the eastern boundaryof the model were mainly applied by the subduction of the Pacific Plate. The compression from the PhilippinePlate maybe slight.

Crustal block rotations in Chinese mainland revealed by GPS measurements

We simulate GPS horizontal velocity field in terms of rotations of crustal blocks to describe deformation behavior of the Chinese mainland and its neighboring areas. 31 crustal blocks are bounded primarily by -30 Quaternary faults with distinct geometries and variable long-term rates of 〈20 mm/a, and 1 683 GPS velocities were determined from decade-long observations mostly with an averaged uncertainty of 1-2 mm/a. We define GPS velocity at a site by the combination of motion of rigid block and elastic strain induced by the fault that is locking during a seismic cycle. Model velocities predicted from the preferable block model match well with the GPS velocities to an uncertainty of-l.7mm/a. The slip rates inferred from this model is in a range of 6-18 mm/a for the major faults in Tibet and its margins and 1-4 mm/a in eastern China, consistent with geological observations. Our numerical simulation suggests that the crustal blocks deform internally at a level of-10× 10^-9/a, quite small in comparison with significant deformation localized along fault zones of 50-100 km wide. We conclude that the pattern of continental deformation is not continuous-like but block-like, and the tenet of plate tectonics may be applicable to characterize the active deformation in Asia.

Crustal deformation on the Chinese mainland during 1998—2004 based on GPS data

This study focuses on resolving moderate amounts of crustal motion at the continental scale based on a large volume of global positioning system（GPS） data during 1998e2014. A state-of-the-art GPS processing strategy was used to resolve position time series and velocities from carrier beat phases for all available data. Position time series were closely analyzed to estimate linear constant, coseismic displacements, postseismic motions, and other parameters. We present coseismic offsets inferred from the GPS data for the 2010 Yushu and 2014 Yutian earthquakes, and also illustrate transient postseismic motions following the 2001 Kokoxili, 2008 Wenchuan, and 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquakes. Since not all GPS position time series dominated by postseismic motions can be modeled and corrected reasonably, we present contemporary horizontal velocities from 2009 to 2014 for campaign stations and from 1998 to 2014 for continuous stations, irrespective of postseismic deformations. Our study concludes that we need to accumulate observations over a greater duration and apply accurate postseismic modeling to correct for transient displacement in order to resolve reasonable interseismic velocity.

Current horizontal strain field in Chinese mainland derived from GPS data

The current crustal horizontal strain field is given in the paper based on the horizontal movement rates obtained from about 400 GPS stations located in Chinese mainland and its surrounding areas. The results show: a) The horizontal strain in Chinese mainland is strong in the west and weak in the east and the shear strain is larger than the normal strain (absolute magnitude). The general strain magnitude is 10-8/a and in local regions is 10-7/a, but the strain distribution is not homogeneous; b) The regions with the most significant NS-trending strains are the Himalayas belt along the western segment of Chinese southern boundary, the segment of 36N~42N along the western boundary and the northern margin of Qaidam block; c) The EW-trending strain variation along the western margin is the maximum and it is characterized by the alternatively positive and negative variations from the west to the east; d) The regions with larger magnitudes of REN (NE-trending shear strain) and Rmax (maximum shear strain) are Himalayas belt, the segment of 36N~42N along the western boundary, the western part of Qaidam block, Sichuan-Yunnan (Chuan-Dian) rhombic block and the border area of Alxa, Qilian and Tarim blocks; e) The surrounding area of Qinghai-Xizang (Qingzang) block is mainly superfacial contraction and its interior is basically superfacial expansion. The area to its north is mainly superfacial contraction with the maximum magnitude along the western boundary and the minimum magnitude in the eastern part (except Yanshan tectonic zone); f) In the west of the western part, the principal compressive strain is in the SN direction and the principal tensile strain is in the EW direction, while in the eastern margin area of the western part, the principal compressive strain is proximate EW and the principal tensile strain is about SN. The principal strain direction of Chuan-Dian rhombic block has changed greatly. In the northern part, it is compression in the EW and tension in the SN, while in the southern part, it is just the opposite; g) The strain pattern in Chinese mainland might be the integration of block mode and successive deformation mode. In addition, the shear strain might be the small-scale dominant strain. Such a result might be resulted from the collision of Indian plate and the boundaries coupling, and it is also closely related to the motion of deep-seated matters and the physical nature of crustal medium. Therefore, it should be noted that since the GPS stations are not homogenous in spatial distribution, the obtained strain fields and the scales of the strain should be different.

Statistical features of aftershock distribution size for moderate and large earthquakes in Chinese mainland

Based on data of earthquake sequences with Ms≥5.0 in Chinese mainland from 1970 to 2004, for different sequence types and different rupture modes of the main shock, the relationship between aftershock distribution size R and the magnitude of the main shock Mo has been studied statistically. Considering the rupture mode of the main shock, we give the quantitative statistical relationships between R and Mo under 95% confidence level for different sequence typos. Qualitatively, lgR, the logarithm of the aftershock distribution size, is positively correlative to the M0, but the data distribution is dispersed. Viewing from different sequence typos, the correlation between R and M0 is very weak for isolated earthquake type （lET） sequence, R distributes in the range from 5 to 60 km; For mainshock-aftershock type （MAT）, lgR is positively correlative to M0; For multiple main shock type （MMT）, the corelation between lgR and M0 is not very obvious when M0≤6.2 and R distributes in the range from 5 to 70 km, while it shows a linear correlation when M0≥6.3. The statistical results also show that the occupational ratios of different sequence types for strike-slip and oblique slip are almost the same. But for dip-slip （mostly are thrust mechanisms）, the ratio of MAT is higher than that of IET and MMT. Comparing with previous results, it indicates that, when M0 is large enough, R is mainly determined by M0 and there is almost no relationship with the rupture mode of the main shock.

Numerical calculations of tectonic stress field of Chinese mainland and its neighboring regions and their applications to explanation of seismic activity

This paper made a numerical simulation to the basic tectonic stress field of Chinese mainland and its neighboringregion using the visco-elasticity finite element model and the new published displacement rate result. Main contents include the simulation of maximum shear stress and its varying rate, the maximum shear strain and its varyingrate, the shear strain energy density and its varying rate. In view of the high inhomogeneous distribution characterof seismicity in space and time in Chinese mainland and its neighboring area, the normalized background energyvalue was given by means of normalized treatment to the earthquake energy release in the eastern and westernparts of Chinese mainland. And the comparison of the simulation result with the actual seismicity was made. Thefesults show that the simulation values can explain well the earthquake distribution character of Chinese mainlandand its neighboring area.

Recent crustal horizontal movement in the Chinese mainland

According to the results of careful re-proeessing of data obtained from two GPS survey campaigns of crustal movement monitoring network in Chinese mainland carried out in 1994 and 1996, the crustal horizontal movement characteristics in Chinesc mainland are studied in the paper.In the analysis, a relatively consummate deformation model in which the deformation is described by the relative movement between the tectonic blocks with interior strain and the corresponding analysis method are used. The magnitude of movement along the boundary zones between the tectonic blocks is calculated. And the characters and intensities between the main boundny zones are compared.

Model analysis of crust motion in the Chinese mainland by CMONOC

We report a new horizontal Global Positioning System velocity field in the Chinese mainland from the data analysis of about 2000 GPS sites observed in 2009, 2011 and 2013 through three campaigns of the CMONOC project. Assuming the crustal block to characterize their kinematic behaviors, we estimate parameters of 22 crustal blocks to fit the GPS-derived velocity by using GIPSY software. We restrict us to compare two competing models in which the rigid blocks and the deforming blocks are involved. Our modeling suggests that the most crustal blocks characterized by coherent movement and internal strain may be better in describing the kinematics of crustal deformation in the Chinese mainland.

Multi-scale analysis of earthquake activity in Chinese mainland

Identifying the active and inactive period of earthquakes in Chinese mainland is of great importance for guiding mid-short term, especially short term, earthquake forecast.……

Current crustal movement in Chinese mainland

The quantification of tectonic deformation in the Eastern and Central Asia is of great significance for the study on global plate motion and lithospheric dynamics. In the past four years, the velocity field of horizontal crustal movement for the Chinese mainland has been established for the first time thanks to the intensified GPS measurements and its improved accuracy. The velocity field derived from GPS measurements delineates the patterns of tectonic deformation in the Chinese mainland in the unprecedented detail, and thus reveals the new features of the ongoing tectonic process resulted from the collision of Indian plate to Eurasian plate. Meanwhile, the surface offset induced by two strong earthquakes occurred in Chinese mainland was sampled precisely using InSAR technique.

Influence of the 2011 Mw9. 0 Japan earthquake on groundwater levels in Chinese mainland

This paper gives a description of the co-seismic and post-seismic groundwater level changes induced in Chinese mainland by the 2011 Mw9.0 Japan earthquake, and the corresponding stress changes calculated on the assumption of linear elasticity. The result shows that the main types of changes were oscillations and step increases. The North-South Seismic Belt and the Shanxi Seismic Belt were the main areas affected by the earthquake.

Precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland during 1960–2014

Based on daily precipitation data from 163 meteorological stations, this study investigated precipitation changes in the mid-latitudes of the Chinese mainland（MCM） during 1960–2014 using the climatic trend coefficient, least-squared regression analysis, and a non-parametric Mann-Kendall test.According to the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon on the MCM and the climatic trend coefficient of annual precipitation during 1960–2014, we divided the MCM into the western MCM and eastern MCM. The western MCM was further divided into the western MCM1 and western MCM2 in terms of the effects of the East Asian summer monsoon. The main results were as follows：（1） During the last four decades of the 20^（th） century, the area-averaged annual precipitation presented a significant increasing trend in the western MCM, but there was a slight decreasing trend in the eastern MCM, where a seesaw pattern was apparent. However, in the 21^（st） century, the area-averaged annual precipitation displayed a significant increasing trend in both the western and eastern MCM.（2） The trend in area-averaged seasonal precipitation during 1960–2014 in the western MCM was consistent with that in the eastern MCM in winter and spring. However, the trend in area-averaged summer precipitation during1960–2014 displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.（3） On an annual basis,both the trend in rainstorms and heavy rain displayed a seesaw pattern between the western and eastern MCM.（4） The precipitation intensity in rainstorms, heavy rain, and moderate rain made a greater contribution to changes in the total precipitation than precipitation frequency. The results of this study will improve our understanding of the trends and differences in precipitation changes in different areas of the MCM. This is not only useful for the management and mitigation of flood disasters, but is also beneficial to the protection of water resources across the MCM.

Current crustal motion and deformation inthe Chinese mainland and its surroundingarea determined from GPS data

Based on the geodetic data taken from the National GPS Network established by China Climbing Program 'Investigation of Crust Motion and Geodynamics in Modern Time', we derived the movement velocities of the GPS sites.In terms of the power series expansion of a rotation function for horizontal velocities on a spherical surface proposed by Hames and Holt (1993), we computed the horizontal velocity and strain-rate field.We preliminarilystudied the appearances and characteristics of the present-day crustal movement and deformation in the Chinesemainland with the computed results. The researches demonstrated (1)The present-day crustal movement anddeformation in the Chinese mainland are being jointly controlled by indian, Pacific and Philippines Ocean Platesand Siberia-Mongolia block, and these three large plates and block form a situation of triparite confrontation, butIndian Plate seems to play a leading role;(2) The North-South Earthquake Zone plays an important adjustment rolein the present-day crustal movement and deformation process. displaying clear characteristics of demarcation lineof tectonics in large areas, (3)There seems to be another adjustment zone along the latitude line approximate N35,but its characteristics are less obvious than that of the former; (4) Dynamic actions of these three large plates andblock on the Chinese mainland are dynamic stable; appearing in stable push-press velocities. These results aregenerally accorded with the results determined from geology, geophysics, and seismology. By the contrast withseismicities. if appears preliminarily that there is some corresponding relation between intense shear st fain zoneand future strong seismicity area. but this problem needs further examination of earthquake examples.

An overview on shallow strong earthquake activity and earthquake live losses of Chinese mainland in the centenary from 1901 to 2001

This paper reviews and analyses briefly the general characteristics of shallow strong earthquakes (MS≥6.0, focal depth h≤70 km) in space, time and magnitude and earthquake fatalities of Chinese mainland in the centenary from 1901 to 2001. During the period from 1901 to 2001, there occurred about 420 strong shallow earthquakes with magnitude MS≥6.0, 88% of them occurred in the western part of the Chinese mainland, which might be related to the strong deformation and motion of the active blocks in the western part. The average focal depth (25 km) in the western part is deeper than that (16 km) in the eastern part, which might be related to obviously thicker crust in the western part. The inhomogeneous distribution of focal depths with the depth profile is related to the variation of frictional and rheologic characteristics with depth in the crust. The shallow strong earthquake activity of Chinese mainland shows a tempo-spatial clustering process. The relation between earthquake magnitude MS and cumulative frequency Nc is lgNc=8.64–0.99MS. About 600 000 people died in the earthquakes of Chinese mainland from 1901 to 2001, the most serious earthquake live losses occurred in Hebei Province (250 723 people died) and Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (246 269 died). There is no a statistically linear relationship between earthquake live losses and magnitudes. The statistical relationship between the earthquake deaths D and cumulative frequency Nc is lgNc=2.40–0.39lgD, which shows a fractal distribution.

Study on the regional deviation of the mac-roscopic epicenters from relevant epicenters by rapid determination in Chinese mainland

The primary results have been obtained by the analyses on the deviation of macroscopic epicenters from relevant microscopic epicenters determined rapidly after the 139 earthquake events occunrred during 1989-2004. Further study has proved the normal distributions exist in both the east and west parts of Chinese mainland partitioned along meridian 105°E. The empirical two-dimensional normal distribution functions for the deviations are presented in the paper. The results are of significance in reducing uncertainty of losses assessment immediately after a destroyed earthquake.