BACKGROUND Acute exacerbation in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus(HBV) infection results in different severities of liver injury. The risk factors related to progression to hepatic decompensation(HD) and acute-...BACKGROUND Acute exacerbation in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus(HBV) infection results in different severities of liver injury. The risk factors related to progression to hepatic decompensation(HD) and acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) in patients with severe acute exacerbation(SAE) of chronic HBV infection remain unknown.AIM To identify risk factors related to progression to HD and ACLF in compensated patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection.METHODS The baseline characteristics of 164 patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection were retrospectively reviewed. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD and ACLF were identified. The predictive values of our previously established prediction model in patients with acute exacerbation(AE model) and the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD) score in predicting the development of ACLF were evaluated.RESULTS Among 164 patients with SAE, 83(50.6%) had compensated liver cirrhosis(LC),43 had progression to HD without ACLF, and 29 had progression to ACLF within 28 d after admission. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD were LC and low alanine aminotransferase. Independent risk factors for progression to ACLF were LC, high MELD score, high aspartate aminotransferase(AST) levels, and low prothrombin activity(PTA). The area under the receiver operating characteristic of the AE model [0.844, 95%confidence interval(CI): 0.779-0.896] was significantly higher than that of MELD score(0.690, 95%CI: 0.613-0.760, P < 0.05) in predicting the development of ACLF.CONCLUSION In patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection, LC is an independent risk factor for progression to both HD and ACLF. High MELD score, high AST, and low PTA are associated with progression to ACLF. The AE model is a better predictor of ACLF development in patients with SAE than MELD score.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to prepare a nursing protocol for preventing interruptions during clinical examinations and treatments performed in the early days of hospitalization for acute exacerbation of chronic hear...The purpose of this study is to prepare a nursing protocol for preventing interruptions during clinical examinations and treatments performed in the early days of hospitalization for acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure in patients with impaired cognitive function. For the first stage of the research, we prepared a draft of the nursing protocol based on a basic survey. For the second stage, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 5 nurses specialized in chronic heart failure and 11 nurses in dementia care to ensure content validity of the draft protocol. For the third stage, we examined the possibility of clinical application of the revised version of the protocol draft prepared in the second stage of the study. For assessment items, significant points of nursing care, and specific nursing care practice in this revised version, 73 subjects (84.9%) considered effective for patients, in terms of prevention of interruptions during clinical examinations and treatments in the early days of hospitalization. All items and contents were considered useful by more than 60% of the nurses. Considering that the nurses working in the clinical setting reported 84.9% of usefulness, we concluded that this nursing protocol remained valid at a certain level. We consider that this nursing protocol will be useful especially for newly graduated/employed nurses as a procedure manual which can reduce their anxiety or stress caused by lack of knowledge or experiences.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to prepare a nursing protocol for preventing discontinuation of treatments using a method other than physical restraint during acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure in patients with ...The purpose of this study is to prepare a nursing protocol for preventing discontinuation of treatments using a method other than physical restraint during acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure in patients with impaired cognitive function. For the first stage of the study, we prepared a draft of the nursing protocol based on a basic survey. For the second stage, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 5 nurses specialized in chronic heart failure and 10 nurses in dementia case to ensure content validity of the draft protocol. For the third stage, we examined the possibility of clinical application of the revised version of the protocol draft prepared in the second stage of the study. For assessment items, significant points of nursing care, and specific nursing care practice in this revised version, 154 subjects (93.9%) considered effective for patients, in terms of prevention of treatment discontinuation using a method other than physical restraint. All items and contents were considered useful by more than 60% of the nurses. Considering that the nurses working in the clinical setting reported 93.9% of usefulness, we concluded that this nursing protocol remained valid at a certain level. We also received a comment from the certified nurses that we should include the basic contents for newly graduated nurses. We consider that this nursing protocol will be also useful for newly graduated nurses to acquire knowledge. It helped to standardize nursing care in order to predict potential risks for patients with impaired cognitive function.展开更多
Objective: To observe the effectiveness and safety of ivabradine in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and heart failure. Methods:Patients who were admitted to hospital ...Objective: To observe the effectiveness and safety of ivabradine in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and heart failure. Methods:Patients who were admitted to hospital with AECOPD during the period from August 2017 to July 2018. Then those both had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction(HFrEF) and a resting heart rate>70 beats/min were enrolled. A total of 86 cases were screened and completed, which were randomly divided into two groups for treatment. The control group(41 cases) received standard treatments, such as oxygen, anti-infection, anti-spasmodic, hormone, diuretic, ACEI/ARB, recombinant human brain natriuretic peptide (rhBNP), etc. The bisoprolol was given 2.5~5 mg orally once a day to control heart rate, and the test group(45 cases) was further treated with ivabradine 2.5~5 mg orally twice a day on the basis of the control group. The average heart rate, cardiac function, lung function, and 6-minute walking test were compared between the two groups. Results: After treatment, the average heart rate of the test group was lower than the control group, and the heart rate control rate(<70 beats/min%) of the test group was superior to the control group. The level of N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP) in test group was significantly lower than that in control group. The distance of the 6-minute walking test in e test group was significantly longer than that in control group. Conclusion: Ivabradine combined with bisoprolol could help patients with AECOPD and heart failure to further reduce the heart rates, improve heart function and exercise tolerance. Moreover, the therapeutic safety was acceptable during the short term.展开更多
The purpose of this study is to develop a nursing protocol aiming at early recovery of hospitalized patients with reduced cognitive functions in the process of recovery from acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure...The purpose of this study is to develop a nursing protocol aiming at early recovery of hospitalized patients with reduced cognitive functions in the process of recovery from acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure. At the first stage of the research, a draft nursing protocol was prepared based on a basic survey. At the second stage of research, a semi-structured interview was conducted for 4 nurses certified for chronic heart failure nursing and 11 nurses certified for dementia nursing so as to ensure content validity of the draft nursing protocol. At the third stage of the study, the possibility of clinical application of the nursing protocol revision plan proposed at the second stage of the study was examined. The nursing protocol revision plan was effective for 118 nurses (90.1%) who carried out the protocol for the target patient on assessment items, essential points of nursing care and specific nursing care. There were no items or contents for which confirmation of usefulness was less than 60%. Since 90.1% of the usefulness was confirmed by nurses working in the actual clinical setting, the authors believe that this nursing protocol was secured to a certain level. The nursing protocol developed in this study has been requested by nurses at clinical sites in the past. It is very meaningful in improving nursing for the early recovery of hospitalized patients with reduced cognitive function in the process of recovery from acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure.展开更多
BACKGROUND:Early withdrawal of invasive mechanical ventilation(IMV) followed by noninvasive MV(NIMV) is a new strategy for changing modes of treatment in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmon...BACKGROUND:Early withdrawal of invasive mechanical ventilation(IMV) followed by noninvasive MV(NIMV) is a new strategy for changing modes of treatment in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(AECOPD) with acute respiratory failure(ARF).Using pulmonary infection control window(PIC window) as the switch point for transferring from invasive to noninvasive MV,the time for early extubation can be more accurately judged,and therapy efficacy can be improved.This study aimed to prospectively investigate the clinical effectiveness of fiberoptic bronchscopy(FOB) in patients with AECOPD during sequential weaning of invasive-noninvasive MV.METHODS:Since July 2006 to January 2011,106 AECOPD patients with ARF were treated with comprehensive medication and IMV after hospitalization.Patients were randomly divided into two groups according to whether fiberoptic bronchoscope is used(group A,n=54) or not(group B,n=52) during sequential weaning from invasive to noninvasive MV.In group A,for sputum suction and bronchoalveolar lavage(BAL),a fiberoptic bronchoscope was put into the airway from the outside of an endotracheal tube,which was accompanied with uninterrupted use of a ventilator.After achieving PIC window,patients of both groups changed to NIMV mode,and weaned from ventilation.The following listed indices were used to compare between the groups after treatment:1) the occurrence time of PIC,the duration of MV,the length of ICU stay,the success rate of weaning from MV for the first time,the rate of reventilatJon and the occurrence rate of ventilator-associated pneumonia(VAP);2) the convenience and safety of FOB manipulation.The results were compared using Student's f test and the Chi-square test.RESULTS:The occurrence time of PIC was(5.01 ±1.49) d,(5.87±1.87) d in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.05);the duration of MV was(6.98±1.84) d,(8.69±2.41) d in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.01);the length of ICU stay was(9.25±1.84) d,(11.10±2.63) d in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.01);the success rate of weaning for the first time was 96.30%,76.92%in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.01);the rate of reventilation was 5.56%,19.23%in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.05);and the occurrence rate of VAP was 3.70%,23.07%in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.01).Moreover,it was easy and safe to manipulate FOB,and no side effect was observed.CONCLUSIONS:The application of FOB in patients with AECOPD during sequential weaning of invasive-noninvasive MV is effective in ICU.It can decrease the duration of MV and the length of ICU stay,increase the success rate from weaning MV for the first time,reduce the rate of reventilation and the occurrence rate of VAP.In addition,such a method is convenient and safe in patients of this kind.展开更多
Objective:To study the effects of low molecular weight heparin on the function of blood coagulation and serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α), creatine kinase isoenzyme (CK-MB), C-reactive protein (CRP) of ...Objective:To study the effects of low molecular weight heparin on the function of blood coagulation and serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α), creatine kinase isoenzyme (CK-MB), C-reactive protein (CRP) of patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and respiratory failure.Methods:A total of 80 patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and respiratory failure in our hospital from June 2014 to October 2016 were enrolled in this study. The subjects were divided into the control group (n=40) and the treatment group (n=40) randomly. The control group were treated with conventional treatment, the treatment group were treated with the conventional treatment combined with low molecular weight heparin. The two groups were treated for 7 d. The D-dimer (D-D), fibrinogen (FBG), pro thrombin time (PT), thrombin time (TT), TNF-α, CK-MB and CRP of the two groups before and after treatment were compared.Results:There were no significantly differences of the blood levels of D-D, FBG, PT and TT of the two groups before treatment. After treatment, the blood levels of D-D and FBG of the two groups were significantly lower than before treatment, and that of the treatment group were significantly lower than the control group, the PT and TT of the two groups were significantly higher than before treatment, and that of the treatment group were significantly higher than the control group. There were no significantly differences of the serum levels of the TNF-α, CK-MB and CRP of the two groups before treatment. After treatment, the serum levels of the TNF-α, CK-MB and CRP of the two groups were significantly lower than before treatment, and that of the treatment group were significantly lower than the control group.Conclusion:Low molecular weight heparin can significantly reduce the inflammatory factors of the patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and respiratory failure, can alleviath the patients conditions and reduce the myocardial damage.展开更多
AIM: To establish a clinical scoring model to predict risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) in chronic hepatitis B(CHB) patients.METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 1457 patients hospitalized for CHB bet...AIM: To establish a clinical scoring model to predict risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) in chronic hepatitis B(CHB) patients.METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 1457 patients hospitalized for CHB between October 2008 and October 2013 at the Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, China. The patients were divided into two groups: severe acute exacerbation(SAE) group(n = 382) and non-SAE group(n = 1075). The SAE group was classified as the high-risk group based on the higher incidence of ACLF in this group than in the non-SAE group(13.6% vs 0.4%). Two-thirds of SAE patients were randomly assigned to risk-model derivation and the other one-third to model validation. Univariate risk factors associated with the outcome were entered into a multivariate logistic regression model for screening independent risk factors. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the regression coefficients, and the final score was the sum of these values in the derivation set. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The risk prediction scoring model includedthe following four factors: age ≥ 40 years, total bilirubin ≥ 171 μmol/L, prothrombin activity 40%-60%, and hepatitis B virus DNA > 107 copies/m L. The sum risk score ranged from 0 to 7; 0-3 identified patients with lower risk of ACLF, whereas 4-7 identified patients with higher risk. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed the cumulative risk for ACLF and ACLF-related death in the two risk groups(0-3 and 4-7 scores) of the primary cohort over 56 d, and log-rank test revealed a significant difference(2.0% vs 33.8% and 0.8% vs 9.4%, respectively; both P < 0.0001). In the derivation and validation data sets, the model had good discrimination(C index = 0.857, 95% confidence interval: 0.800-0.913 and C index = 0.889, 95% confidence interval: 0.820-0.957, respectively) and calibration demonstrated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test(χ2 = 4.516, P = 0.808 and χ2 = 1.959, P = 0.923, respectively).CONCLUSION: Using the scoring model, clinicians can easily identify patients(total score ≥ 4) at high risk of ACLF and ACLF-related death early during SAE.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81460124 and No.81860114
文摘BACKGROUND Acute exacerbation in patients with chronic hepatitis B virus(HBV) infection results in different severities of liver injury. The risk factors related to progression to hepatic decompensation(HD) and acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) in patients with severe acute exacerbation(SAE) of chronic HBV infection remain unknown.AIM To identify risk factors related to progression to HD and ACLF in compensated patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection.METHODS The baseline characteristics of 164 patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection were retrospectively reviewed. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD and ACLF were identified. The predictive values of our previously established prediction model in patients with acute exacerbation(AE model) and the model for end-stage liver disease(MELD) score in predicting the development of ACLF were evaluated.RESULTS Among 164 patients with SAE, 83(50.6%) had compensated liver cirrhosis(LC),43 had progression to HD without ACLF, and 29 had progression to ACLF within 28 d after admission. Independent risk factors associated with progression to HD were LC and low alanine aminotransferase. Independent risk factors for progression to ACLF were LC, high MELD score, high aspartate aminotransferase(AST) levels, and low prothrombin activity(PTA). The area under the receiver operating characteristic of the AE model [0.844, 95%confidence interval(CI): 0.779-0.896] was significantly higher than that of MELD score(0.690, 95%CI: 0.613-0.760, P < 0.05) in predicting the development of ACLF.CONCLUSION In patients with SAE of chronic HBV infection, LC is an independent risk factor for progression to both HD and ACLF. High MELD score, high AST, and low PTA are associated with progression to ACLF. The AE model is a better predictor of ACLF development in patients with SAE than MELD score.
文摘The purpose of this study is to prepare a nursing protocol for preventing interruptions during clinical examinations and treatments performed in the early days of hospitalization for acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure in patients with impaired cognitive function. For the first stage of the research, we prepared a draft of the nursing protocol based on a basic survey. For the second stage, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 5 nurses specialized in chronic heart failure and 11 nurses in dementia care to ensure content validity of the draft protocol. For the third stage, we examined the possibility of clinical application of the revised version of the protocol draft prepared in the second stage of the study. For assessment items, significant points of nursing care, and specific nursing care practice in this revised version, 73 subjects (84.9%) considered effective for patients, in terms of prevention of interruptions during clinical examinations and treatments in the early days of hospitalization. All items and contents were considered useful by more than 60% of the nurses. Considering that the nurses working in the clinical setting reported 84.9% of usefulness, we concluded that this nursing protocol remained valid at a certain level. We consider that this nursing protocol will be useful especially for newly graduated/employed nurses as a procedure manual which can reduce their anxiety or stress caused by lack of knowledge or experiences.
文摘The purpose of this study is to prepare a nursing protocol for preventing discontinuation of treatments using a method other than physical restraint during acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure in patients with impaired cognitive function. For the first stage of the study, we prepared a draft of the nursing protocol based on a basic survey. For the second stage, semi-structured interviews were conducted with 5 nurses specialized in chronic heart failure and 10 nurses in dementia case to ensure content validity of the draft protocol. For the third stage, we examined the possibility of clinical application of the revised version of the protocol draft prepared in the second stage of the study. For assessment items, significant points of nursing care, and specific nursing care practice in this revised version, 154 subjects (93.9%) considered effective for patients, in terms of prevention of treatment discontinuation using a method other than physical restraint. All items and contents were considered useful by more than 60% of the nurses. Considering that the nurses working in the clinical setting reported 93.9% of usefulness, we concluded that this nursing protocol remained valid at a certain level. We also received a comment from the certified nurses that we should include the basic contents for newly graduated nurses. We consider that this nursing protocol will be also useful for newly graduated nurses to acquire knowledge. It helped to standardize nursing care in order to predict potential risks for patients with impaired cognitive function.
文摘Objective: To observe the effectiveness and safety of ivabradine in patients with acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) and heart failure. Methods:Patients who were admitted to hospital with AECOPD during the period from August 2017 to July 2018. Then those both had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction(HFrEF) and a resting heart rate>70 beats/min were enrolled. A total of 86 cases were screened and completed, which were randomly divided into two groups for treatment. The control group(41 cases) received standard treatments, such as oxygen, anti-infection, anti-spasmodic, hormone, diuretic, ACEI/ARB, recombinant human brain natriuretic peptide (rhBNP), etc. The bisoprolol was given 2.5~5 mg orally once a day to control heart rate, and the test group(45 cases) was further treated with ivabradine 2.5~5 mg orally twice a day on the basis of the control group. The average heart rate, cardiac function, lung function, and 6-minute walking test were compared between the two groups. Results: After treatment, the average heart rate of the test group was lower than the control group, and the heart rate control rate(<70 beats/min%) of the test group was superior to the control group. The level of N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide(NT-proBNP) in test group was significantly lower than that in control group. The distance of the 6-minute walking test in e test group was significantly longer than that in control group. Conclusion: Ivabradine combined with bisoprolol could help patients with AECOPD and heart failure to further reduce the heart rates, improve heart function and exercise tolerance. Moreover, the therapeutic safety was acceptable during the short term.
文摘The purpose of this study is to develop a nursing protocol aiming at early recovery of hospitalized patients with reduced cognitive functions in the process of recovery from acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure. At the first stage of the research, a draft nursing protocol was prepared based on a basic survey. At the second stage of research, a semi-structured interview was conducted for 4 nurses certified for chronic heart failure nursing and 11 nurses certified for dementia nursing so as to ensure content validity of the draft nursing protocol. At the third stage of the study, the possibility of clinical application of the nursing protocol revision plan proposed at the second stage of the study was examined. The nursing protocol revision plan was effective for 118 nurses (90.1%) who carried out the protocol for the target patient on assessment items, essential points of nursing care and specific nursing care. There were no items or contents for which confirmation of usefulness was less than 60%. Since 90.1% of the usefulness was confirmed by nurses working in the actual clinical setting, the authors believe that this nursing protocol was secured to a certain level. The nursing protocol developed in this study has been requested by nurses at clinical sites in the past. It is very meaningful in improving nursing for the early recovery of hospitalized patients with reduced cognitive function in the process of recovery from acute exacerbation of chronic heart failure.
文摘BACKGROUND:Early withdrawal of invasive mechanical ventilation(IMV) followed by noninvasive MV(NIMV) is a new strategy for changing modes of treatment in patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(AECOPD) with acute respiratory failure(ARF).Using pulmonary infection control window(PIC window) as the switch point for transferring from invasive to noninvasive MV,the time for early extubation can be more accurately judged,and therapy efficacy can be improved.This study aimed to prospectively investigate the clinical effectiveness of fiberoptic bronchscopy(FOB) in patients with AECOPD during sequential weaning of invasive-noninvasive MV.METHODS:Since July 2006 to January 2011,106 AECOPD patients with ARF were treated with comprehensive medication and IMV after hospitalization.Patients were randomly divided into two groups according to whether fiberoptic bronchoscope is used(group A,n=54) or not(group B,n=52) during sequential weaning from invasive to noninvasive MV.In group A,for sputum suction and bronchoalveolar lavage(BAL),a fiberoptic bronchoscope was put into the airway from the outside of an endotracheal tube,which was accompanied with uninterrupted use of a ventilator.After achieving PIC window,patients of both groups changed to NIMV mode,and weaned from ventilation.The following listed indices were used to compare between the groups after treatment:1) the occurrence time of PIC,the duration of MV,the length of ICU stay,the success rate of weaning from MV for the first time,the rate of reventilatJon and the occurrence rate of ventilator-associated pneumonia(VAP);2) the convenience and safety of FOB manipulation.The results were compared using Student's f test and the Chi-square test.RESULTS:The occurrence time of PIC was(5.01 ±1.49) d,(5.87±1.87) d in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.05);the duration of MV was(6.98±1.84) d,(8.69±2.41) d in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.01);the length of ICU stay was(9.25±1.84) d,(11.10±2.63) d in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.01);the success rate of weaning for the first time was 96.30%,76.92%in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.01);the rate of reventilation was 5.56%,19.23%in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.05);and the occurrence rate of VAP was 3.70%,23.07%in groups A and B,respectively(P<0.01).Moreover,it was easy and safe to manipulate FOB,and no side effect was observed.CONCLUSIONS:The application of FOB in patients with AECOPD during sequential weaning of invasive-noninvasive MV is effective in ICU.It can decrease the duration of MV and the length of ICU stay,increase the success rate from weaning MV for the first time,reduce the rate of reventilation and the occurrence rate of VAP.In addition,such a method is convenient and safe in patients of this kind.
文摘Objective:To study the effects of low molecular weight heparin on the function of blood coagulation and serum levels of tumor necrosis factor-α(TNF-α), creatine kinase isoenzyme (CK-MB), C-reactive protein (CRP) of patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and respiratory failure.Methods:A total of 80 patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and respiratory failure in our hospital from June 2014 to October 2016 were enrolled in this study. The subjects were divided into the control group (n=40) and the treatment group (n=40) randomly. The control group were treated with conventional treatment, the treatment group were treated with the conventional treatment combined with low molecular weight heparin. The two groups were treated for 7 d. The D-dimer (D-D), fibrinogen (FBG), pro thrombin time (PT), thrombin time (TT), TNF-α, CK-MB and CRP of the two groups before and after treatment were compared.Results:There were no significantly differences of the blood levels of D-D, FBG, PT and TT of the two groups before treatment. After treatment, the blood levels of D-D and FBG of the two groups were significantly lower than before treatment, and that of the treatment group were significantly lower than the control group, the PT and TT of the two groups were significantly higher than before treatment, and that of the treatment group were significantly higher than the control group. There were no significantly differences of the serum levels of the TNF-α, CK-MB and CRP of the two groups before treatment. After treatment, the serum levels of the TNF-α, CK-MB and CRP of the two groups were significantly lower than before treatment, and that of the treatment group were significantly lower than the control group.Conclusion:Low molecular weight heparin can significantly reduce the inflammatory factors of the patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases and respiratory failure, can alleviath the patients conditions and reduce the myocardial damage.
基金Supported by Grants from National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.81273743,No.81473641and 215 Program,No.2013-2-11
文摘AIM: To establish a clinical scoring model to predict risk of acute-on-chronic liver failure(ACLF) in chronic hepatitis B(CHB) patients.METHODS: This was a retrospective study of 1457 patients hospitalized for CHB between October 2008 and October 2013 at the Beijing Ditan Hospital, Capital Medical University, China. The patients were divided into two groups: severe acute exacerbation(SAE) group(n = 382) and non-SAE group(n = 1075). The SAE group was classified as the high-risk group based on the higher incidence of ACLF in this group than in the non-SAE group(13.6% vs 0.4%). Two-thirds of SAE patients were randomly assigned to risk-model derivation and the other one-third to model validation. Univariate risk factors associated with the outcome were entered into a multivariate logistic regression model for screening independent risk factors. Each variable was assigned an integer value based on the regression coefficients, and the final score was the sum of these values in the derivation set. Model discrimination and calibration were assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test. RESULTS: The risk prediction scoring model includedthe following four factors: age ≥ 40 years, total bilirubin ≥ 171 μmol/L, prothrombin activity 40%-60%, and hepatitis B virus DNA > 107 copies/m L. The sum risk score ranged from 0 to 7; 0-3 identified patients with lower risk of ACLF, whereas 4-7 identified patients with higher risk. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed the cumulative risk for ACLF and ACLF-related death in the two risk groups(0-3 and 4-7 scores) of the primary cohort over 56 d, and log-rank test revealed a significant difference(2.0% vs 33.8% and 0.8% vs 9.4%, respectively; both P < 0.0001). In the derivation and validation data sets, the model had good discrimination(C index = 0.857, 95% confidence interval: 0.800-0.913 and C index = 0.889, 95% confidence interval: 0.820-0.957, respectively) and calibration demonstrated by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test(χ2 = 4.516, P = 0.808 and χ2 = 1.959, P = 0.923, respectively).CONCLUSION: Using the scoring model, clinicians can easily identify patients(total score ≥ 4) at high risk of ACLF and ACLF-related death early during SAE.