Predictive value of controlling nutritional status score for progression to chronic critical illness in elderly patients with sepsis

Objective:To investigate the predictive value of controlling nutritional status(CONUT)score for progression to chronic critical illness sepsis in elderly patients,and to construct a predictive model based on CONUT score histogram.Methods:739 elderly patients with sepsis admitted from January 2020 to December 2022 were selected as the study objects,and were divided into chronic critical illness group(n=188)and non-chronic critical illness group(n=551)according to whether chronic critical illness disease occurred.Clinical data of the patients were collected and compared.The predictive value of CONUT score,PNI and NLR in the progression of senile sepsis to chronic severe disease was compared,and the optimal threshold value was determined,which was used to convert the numerical variables into binary variables.Through univariate analysis and multivariate Logistic regression analysis,the risk factors affecting the progression of elderly sepsis patients to chronic critical illness disease were screened out,and the prediction model was built based on the nomogram.The efficacy and clinical utility of the prediction model were evaluated by the area under the ROC curve(AUC),calibration curve and decision curve analysis(DCA).Results:The best cut-off value for CONUT score in predicting elderly sepsis progressing to chronic critical illness was 4 points.The predictive performance of CONUT score(AUC=0.739)was better than that of PNI(AUC=0.609)and NLR(AUC=0.582)in elderly sepsis progressing to chronic critical illness(CONUT score vs PNI:Z=5.960,P<0.001;CONUT score vs NLR:Z=6.119,P<0.001).Univariate analysis showed that age,CCI score,SOFA score,sepsis shock,serum Lac,CONUT score,mechanical ventilation(MV),and continuous renal replacement therapy(CRRT)treatment were related to elderly sepsis progressing to chronic critical illness(P<0.05).Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that CONUT score≥4 points,age≥75 years,CCI score≥3 points,SOFA score>5 points,sepsis shock,and serum Lac≥4 mmol/L were independent risk factors for elderly sepsis progressing to chronic critical illness(P<0.05).The nomogram showed that CONUT score had the greatest contribution value in predicting elderly sepsis progressing to chronic critical illness.Based on this,the nomogram prediction model had an AUC of 0.846[95%CI(0.812~0.879)],with a sensitivity of 75.5%and specificity of 81.3%,indicating good predictive performance.The calibration curve was close to the ideal curve,and the DCA threshold had clinical utility advantages when ranging from 0.1 to 0.9.Conclusion:The nomographic prediction model based on CONUT score can effectively predict the risk probability of senile sepsis progressing to chronic critical illness,helpful for clinicians to identify the high risk group of chronic and severe senile sepsis,which is helpful for clinicians to identify high-risk populations of elderly sepsis with chronic critical illness.

Perspectives on non-emergent neonatal intensive care unit to pediatric intensive care unit care transfers in the United States

BACKGROUND There is a substantial population of long-stay patients who non-emergently transfer directly from the neonatal intensive care unit(NICU)to the pediatric intensive care unit(PICU)without an interim discharge home.These infants are often medically complex and have higher mortality relative to NICU or PICUonly admissions.Given an absence of data surrounding practice patterns for nonemergent NICU to PICU transfers,we hypothesized that we would encounter a broad spectrum of current practices and a high proportion of dissatisfaction with current processes.AIM To characterize non-emergent NICU to PICU transfer practices across the United States and query PICU providers’evaluations of their effectiveness.METHODS A cross-sectional survey was drafted,piloted,and sent to one physician representative from each of 115 PICUs across the United States based on membership in the PARK-PICU research consortium and membership in the Children’s Hospital Association.The survey was administered via internet(REDCap).Analysis was performed using STATA,primarily consisting of descriptive statistics,though logistic regressions were run examining the relationship between specific transfer steps,hospital characteristics,and effectiveness of transfer.RESULTS One PICU attending from each of 81 institutions in the United States completed the survey(overall 70%response rate).Over half(52%)indicated their hospital transfers patients without using set clinical criteria,and only 33%indicated that their hospital has a standardized protocol to facilitate non-emergent transfer.Fewer than half of respondents reported that their institution’s nonemergent NICU to PICU transfer practices were effective for clinicians(47%)or patient families(38%).Respondents evaluated their centers’transfers as less effective when they lacked any transfer criteria(P=0.027)or set transfer protocols(P=0.007).Respondents overwhelmingly agreed that having set clinical criteria and standardized protocols for non-emergent transfer were important to the patient-family experience and patient safety.CONCLUSION Most hospitals lacked any clinical criteria or protocols for non-emergent NICU to PICU transfers.More positive perceptions of transfer effectiveness were found among those with set criteria and/or transfer protocols.