文章以河谷城市甘肃省兰州市为例,在测度“三生”空间冲突强度并揭示多尺度分异机制的基础上提出冲突协调策略。结果显示:①“三生”空间格局演化与地域分异显著。生活空间的增加主要源于对生态空间和生产空间的侵占。②兰州市“三生”...文章以河谷城市甘肃省兰州市为例,在测度“三生”空间冲突强度并揭示多尺度分异机制的基础上提出冲突协调策略。结果显示:①“三生”空间格局演化与地域分异显著。生活空间的增加主要源于对生态空间和生产空间的侵占。②兰州市“三生”空间冲突时空演化与地类分异显著。时序上,“三生”空间冲突强度呈持续上升态势,整体处于基本可控级别;空间上,形成了“一心、两翼、多轴带”的空间冲突格局;就地类而言,城镇的生活空间与生产空间冲突水平较高。③兰州市“三生”空间冲突影响因素尺度效应和异质性明显。高程、坡度、地形起伏度等对“三生”空间冲突具有抑制作用;人口密度、人均G D P、夜间灯光指数等因素加剧了区域“三生”空间冲突程度。展开更多
Character of population distribution is one of the focuses studied by urban geography. Using the fifth national census data as basic data and using areal interpolation method, this paper analyzes character of urban po...Character of population distribution is one of the focuses studied by urban geography. Using the fifth national census data as basic data and using areal interpolation method, this paper analyzes character of urban population dis- tribution of Shenyang City, Northeast China, in terms of three aspects of statistical character, spatial auto-correlation and spatial structure. Furthermore, this research analyzes the factors affecting the population distribution of the city. The main conclusions include: 1) There is an obvious structure character of population distribution in the grid with a grain of 300m, which is appropriate scale when researching population distribution in Shenyang City. 2) Urban population dis- tribution has the character of assembling while population density distribution takes on variability in Shenyang City. 3) Population density distribution shows spatial auto-correlation within 7.36km. Spatial heterogeneity of population density is low. 4) Urban center, population distribution barycenter and population density maximum points separate each other. Population density distribution has multi-cores character. 5) Layout of governments, primary schools, middle schools, colleges, hospitals and marketplaces affects population distribution directly. With the increase of distance to these factors, population density decreases as logarithm.展开更多
In this paper,with the method of epidemic dynamics,we assess the spread and prevalence of COVID-19 after the policy adjustment of prevention and control measure in December 2022 in Taiyuan City in China,and estimate t...In this paper,with the method of epidemic dynamics,we assess the spread and prevalence of COVID-19 after the policy adjustment of prevention and control measure in December 2022 in Taiyuan City in China,and estimate the excess population deaths caused by COVID-19.Based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 among individuals,a dynamic model with heterogeneous contacts is established to describe the change of control measures and the population's social behavior in Taiyuan city.The model is verified and simulated by basing on reported case data from November 8th to December 5th,2022 in Taiyuan city and the statistical data of the questionnaire survey from December 1st to 23rd,2022 in Neijiang city.Combining with reported numbers of permanent residents and deaths from 2017 to 2021 in Taiyuan city,we apply the dynamic model to estimate theoretical population of 2022 under the assumption that there is no effect of COVID-19.In addition,we carry out sensitivity analysis to determine the propagation character of the Omicron strain and the effect of the control measures.As a result of the study,it is concluded that after adjusting the epidemic policy on December 6th,2022,three peaks of infection in Taiyuan are estimated to be from December 22nd to 31st,2022,from May 10th to June 1st,2023,and from September 5th to October 13th,2023,and the corresponding daily peaks of new cases can reach 400000,44000 and 22000,respectively.By the end of 2022,excess deaths can range from 887 to 4887,and excess mortality rate can range from 3.06%to 14.82%.The threshold of the infectivity of the COVID-19 variant is estimated 0.0353,that is if the strain infectivity is above it,the epidemic cannot be control with the previous normalization measures.展开更多
文摘文章以河谷城市甘肃省兰州市为例,在测度“三生”空间冲突强度并揭示多尺度分异机制的基础上提出冲突协调策略。结果显示:①“三生”空间格局演化与地域分异显著。生活空间的增加主要源于对生态空间和生产空间的侵占。②兰州市“三生”空间冲突时空演化与地类分异显著。时序上,“三生”空间冲突强度呈持续上升态势,整体处于基本可控级别;空间上,形成了“一心、两翼、多轴带”的空间冲突格局;就地类而言,城镇的生活空间与生产空间冲突水平较高。③兰州市“三生”空间冲突影响因素尺度效应和异质性明显。高程、坡度、地形起伏度等对“三生”空间冲突具有抑制作用;人口密度、人均G D P、夜间灯光指数等因素加剧了区域“三生”空间冲突程度。
基金Under the auspices of Knowledge Innovation Program of Chines Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX2-SW-210-1)
文摘Character of population distribution is one of the focuses studied by urban geography. Using the fifth national census data as basic data and using areal interpolation method, this paper analyzes character of urban population dis- tribution of Shenyang City, Northeast China, in terms of three aspects of statistical character, spatial auto-correlation and spatial structure. Furthermore, this research analyzes the factors affecting the population distribution of the city. The main conclusions include: 1) There is an obvious structure character of population distribution in the grid with a grain of 300m, which is appropriate scale when researching population distribution in Shenyang City. 2) Urban population dis- tribution has the character of assembling while population density distribution takes on variability in Shenyang City. 3) Population density distribution shows spatial auto-correlation within 7.36km. Spatial heterogeneity of population density is low. 4) Urban center, population distribution barycenter and population density maximum points separate each other. Population density distribution has multi-cores character. 5) Layout of governments, primary schools, middle schools, colleges, hospitals and marketplaces affects population distribution directly. With the increase of distance to these factors, population density decreases as logarithm.
基金supported by Fund Program for the Scientific Activities of Selected Returned Overseas Professionals in Shanxi Province(20210009)Key research project in Shanxi Province(202102130501002)+1 种基金Key project of National Natural Science Foundation of China(12231012)Key Projects of Health Commission of Shanxi Province(No.2020XM18).
文摘In this paper,with the method of epidemic dynamics,we assess the spread and prevalence of COVID-19 after the policy adjustment of prevention and control measure in December 2022 in Taiyuan City in China,and estimate the excess population deaths caused by COVID-19.Based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 among individuals,a dynamic model with heterogeneous contacts is established to describe the change of control measures and the population's social behavior in Taiyuan city.The model is verified and simulated by basing on reported case data from November 8th to December 5th,2022 in Taiyuan city and the statistical data of the questionnaire survey from December 1st to 23rd,2022 in Neijiang city.Combining with reported numbers of permanent residents and deaths from 2017 to 2021 in Taiyuan city,we apply the dynamic model to estimate theoretical population of 2022 under the assumption that there is no effect of COVID-19.In addition,we carry out sensitivity analysis to determine the propagation character of the Omicron strain and the effect of the control measures.As a result of the study,it is concluded that after adjusting the epidemic policy on December 6th,2022,three peaks of infection in Taiyuan are estimated to be from December 22nd to 31st,2022,from May 10th to June 1st,2023,and from September 5th to October 13th,2023,and the corresponding daily peaks of new cases can reach 400000,44000 and 22000,respectively.By the end of 2022,excess deaths can range from 887 to 4887,and excess mortality rate can range from 3.06%to 14.82%.The threshold of the infectivity of the COVID-19 variant is estimated 0.0353,that is if the strain infectivity is above it,the epidemic cannot be control with the previous normalization measures.
