Climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Tanzania

Climate change vulnerability assessment is an essential tool for identifying regions that are most susceptible to the impacts of climate change and designing effective adaptation actions that can reduce vulnerability and enhance long-term resilience of these regions.This study explored a framework for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process in Jangwani Ward,Tanzania.Specifically,taking flood as an example,this study highlighted the steps and methods for climate change vulnerability assessment in the new urban planning process.In the study area,95 households were selected and interviewed through purposeful sampling.Additionally,10 respondents(4 females and 6 males)were interviewed for Focus Group Discussion(FGD),and 3 respondents(1 female and 2 males)were selected for Key Informant Interviews(KII)at the Ministry of Lands,Housing and Human Settlements Development.This study indicated that climate change vulnerability assessment framework involves the assessment of climatic hazards,risk elements,and adaptive capacity,and the determination of vulnerability levels.The average hazard risk rating of flood was 2.3.Socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructures both had the average risk element rating of 3.0,and ecosystems had the average risk element rating of 2.9.Adaptive capacity ratings of knowledge,technology,economy or finance,and institution were 1.6,1.9,1.4,and 2.2,respectively.The vulnerability levels of socioeconomic and livelihood activities and physical infrastructure were very high(4.0).Ecosystems had a high vulnerability level(3.8)to flood.The very high vulnerability level of socioeconomic and livelihood activities was driven by high exposure and sensitivity to risk elements and low adaptive capacity.The study recommends adoption of the new urban planning process including preparation,planning,implementation,and monitoring-evaluation-review phases that integrates climate change vulnerability assessment in all phases.

Hydrologic Response to Future Climate Change in the Dulong-Irra-waddy River Basin Based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6

Within the context of the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI)and the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor(CMEC),the Dulong-Ir-rawaddy(Ayeyarwady)River,an international river among China,India and Myanmar,plays a significant role as both a valuable hydro-power resource and an essential ecological passageway.However,the water resources and security exhibit a high degree of vulnerabil-ity to climate change impacts.This research evaluates climate impacts on the hydrology of the Dulong-Irrawaddy River Basin(DIRB)by using a physical-based hydrologic model.We crafted future climate scenarios using the three latest global climate models(GCMs)from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6(CMIP6)under two shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)for the near(2025-2049),mid(2050-2074),and far future(2075-2099).The regional model using MIKE SHE based on historical hydrologic processes was developed to further project future streamflow,demonstrating reliable performance in streamflow simulations with a val-idation Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency(NSE)of 0.72.Results showed that climate change projections showed increases in the annual precip-itation and potential evapotranspiration(PET),with precipitation increasing by 11.3%and 26.1%,and PET increasing by 3.2%and 4.9%,respectively,by the end of the century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5.These changes are projected to result in increased annual streamflow at all stations,notably at the basin’s outlet(Pyay station)compared to the baseline period(with an increase of 16.1%and 37.0%at the end of the 21st century under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively).Seasonal analysis for Pyay station forecasts an in-crease in dry-season streamflow by 31.3%-48.9%and 22.5%-76.3%under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5,respectively,and an increase in wet-season streamflow by 5.8%-12.6%and 2.8%-33.3%,respectively.Moreover,the magnitude and frequency of flood events are pre-dicted to escalate,potentially impacting hydropower production and food security significantly.This research outlines the hydrological response to future climate change during the 21st century and offers a scientific basis for the water resource management strategies by decision-makers.

Spatial and temporal patterns of the sensitivity of radial growth response by Picea schrenkiana to regional climate change in the Tianshan Mountains

Climate change significantly impacts forest ecosystems in arid and semi-arid regions.However,spatiotemporal patterns of climate-sensitive changes in individual tree growth under increased climate warming and precipitation in north-west China is unclear.The dendrochronological method was used to study climate response sensitivity of radial growth of Picea schrenkiana from 158 trees at six sites during 1990-2020.The results show that climate warming and increased precipitation significantly promoted the growth of trees.The response to temperature first increased,then decreased.However,the response to increased precipitation and the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index(scPDSI)increased significantly.In most areas of the Tianshan Mountains,the proportion of trees under increased precipitation and scPDSI positive response was relatively high.Over time,small-diameter trees were strongly affected by drought stress.It is predicted that under continuous warming and increased precipitation,trees in most areas of the Tianshan Mountains,especially those with small diameters,will be more affected by precipitation.

Landslide Developmental Characteristics and Response to Climate Change since the Last Glacial in the Upper Reaches of the Yellow River, NE Tibetan Plateau

The upper reaches of the Yellow River in northeastern Tibetan Plateau are geohazards areas.The evolution of the Yellow River,chronology of some landslides,and spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of super large scale and giant landslides within the region are summarized using paleoclimate evidence,and the relationship between the intensive landslide period and climatic changes since the Last Glacial period is analyzed.It is concluded that （1） Super large scale and giant landslides are distributed widely within the region,particularly in the Qunke-Jianzha basin.（2） The chronological sequence of landslides is established by dating the slip zones of landslides and analyzing the relations between landslides and their overlying or underlying loess formations.Five landslide development periods are determined：53-49 ka BP,33-24 ka BP,10-8 ka BP,5-3.5 ka BP,and the present.（3） These correspond closely to warm and wet periods during the last 100,000 years,i.e.,two weak paleosol development stages of Malan loess deposited during the last Glacial period in the Chinese loess Plateau,L1-4 and L1-2 that belong to the marine oxygen isotope stage 3,the last deglaeial period,the Holocene Optimum,and the modern global warming period.（4） Landslide triggers may be closely linked to warm and wet periods related to rapid climatic transitions.

Geographic Variation of Rice Yield Response to Past Climate Change in China

Previous studies demonstrated climate change had reduced rice yield in China, but the magnitude of the reduction and the spatial variations of the impact have remained in controversy to date. Based on a gridded daily weather dataset, we found there were obvious changes in temperatures, diurnal temperature range, and radiation during the rice-growing season from 1961 to 2010 in China. These changes resulted in a signiifcant decline of simulated national rice yield （simulated with CERES-Rice）, with a magnitude of 11.5%. However, changes in growing-season radiation and diurnal temperature range, not growing-season temperatures, contributed most to the simulated yield reduction, which conifrmed previous estimates by empirical studies. Yield responses to changes of the climatic variables varied across different rice production areas. In rice production areas with the mean growing-season temperature at 12-14＆#176;C and above 20＆#176;C, a 1＆#176;C growing-season warming decreased rice yield by roughly 4%. This decrease was partly attributed to increased heat stresses and shorter growth period under the warmer climate. In some rice areas of the southern China and the Yangtze River Basin where the rice growing-season temperature was greater than 20＆#176;C, decrease in the growing-season radiation partly interpreted the widespread yield decline of the simulation, suggesting the signiifcant negative contribution of recent global dimming on rice production in China＇s main rice areas. Whereas in the northern rice production areas with relatively low growing-season temperature, decrease of the diurnal temperature range was identiifed as the main climatic contributor for the decline of simulated rice yield, with larger decreasing magnitude under cooler areas.

Hydrological response to climate change and human activities:A case study of Taihu Basin,China

Climate change and human activities have changed a number of characteristics of river flow in the Taihu Basin.Based on long-term time series of hydrological data from 1986 to 2015,we analyzed variability in precipitation,water stage,water diversion from the Yangtze River,and net inflow into Taihu Lake with the Mann-Kendall test.The non-stationary relationship between precipitation and water stage was first analyzed for the Taihu Basin and the Wuchengxiyu(WCXY)sub-region.The optimized regional and urban regulation schemes were explored to tackle high water stage problems through the hydrodynamic model.The results showed the following:(1)The highest,lowest,and average Taihu Lake water stages of all months had increasing trends.The total net inflow into Taihu Lake from the Huxi(HX)sub-region and the Wangting Sluice increased significantly.(2)The Taihu Lake water stage decreased much more slowly after 2002;it was steadier and higher after 2002.After the construction of Wuxi urban flood control projects,the average water stage of the inner city was 0.16e0.40 m lower than that of suburbs in the flood season,leading to the transfer of flooding in inner cities to suburbs and increasing inflow from HX into Taihu Lake.(3)The regional optimized schemes were more satisfactory in not increasing the inner city flood control burden,thereby decreasing the average water stage by 0.04e0.13 m,and the highest water stage by 0.04e0.09 m for Taihu Lake and the sub-region in the flood season.Future flood control research should set the basin as the basic unit.Decreasing diversion and drainage lines along the Yangtze River can take an active role in flood control.

Dynamic response to climate change in the radial growth of Picea schrenkiana in western Tien Shan,China

Forests are important ecosystems for economic and social development.However,the response of tree radial growth to climate has produced‘divergent problems'at high latitudes under global warming.In this study,the response stability and trend of Picea schrenkiana radial growth to variability in climate factors were analyzed in the mid-latitudes of the western Tien Shan Mountains.Radial growth of P.schrenkiana was mainly limited by minimum and mean temperatures.The divergent responses of radial growth occurred in response to the minimum and mean temperatures at the beginning of the growing season(April–May)of the current year,but responses to drought occurred in July–September of the previous year.And the mean and minimum temperatures in June–September of the current year were both stable.Radial growth first increased and then decreased according to the basal area increment,with a gradual increase in temperature.Therefore,forest ecosystems in mountainous arid areas will be increasingly affected by future climate warming.

Response of Biomass Spatial Pattern of Alpine Vegetation to Climate Change in Permafrost Region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China

Alpine ecosystems in permafrost region are extremely sensitive to climate changes.To determine spatial pattern variations in alpine meadow and alpine steppe biomass dynamics in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau,China,calibrated with historical datasets of above-ground biomass production within the permafrost region's two main ecosystems,an ecosystem-biomass model was developed by employing empirical spatialdistribution models of the study region's precipitation,air temperature and soil temperature.This model was then successfully used to simulate the spatio-temporal variations in annual alpine ecosystem biomass production under climate change.For a 0.44°C decade-1 rise in air temperature,the model predicted that the biomasses of alpine meadow and alpine steppe remained roughly the same if annual precipitation increased by 8 mm per decade-1,but the biomasses were decreased by 2.7% and 2.4%,respectively if precipitation was constant.For a 2.2°C decade-1 rise in air temperature coupled with a 12 mm decade-1 rise in precipitation,the model predicted that the biomass of alpine meadow was unchanged or slightly increased,while that of alpine steppe was increased by 5.2%.However,in the absence of any rise in precipitation,the model predicted 6.8% and 4.6% declines in alpine meadow and alpine steppe biomasses,respectively.The response of alpine steppe biomass to the rising air temperatures and precipitation was significantly lesser and greater,respectively than that of alpine meadow biomass.A better understanding of the difference in alpine ecosystem biomass production under climate change is greatly significant with respect to the influence of climate change on the carbon and water cycles in the permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

Surface Water Resources' Response to Climate Changes in Jilin Province

[Objective] The response of surface water resources on climate changes was studied.[Method] By dint of monthly average temperature and precipitation in 45 meteorological stations in Jilin Province from 1960 to 2000,monthly runoff in 56 hydrological stations in Songhuajiang and Liaohe region,the surface runoff change and the response of surface water resources to climate change in 41 years were expounded.[Result] The runoff of Songliao region was limited during 1960s and 1970s.It began to increase slowly in the early 1980s.Since 1990s,there were distinct fluctuation of annual runoff and it was decreasing in general.EOF analysis suggested that the runoff of Songliao region was decreasing gradually from south to the north.The central gradient was small and runoff was evenly distributed.MK test result showed that the annual runoff in Songliao region had large fluctuation before 1980s and after 1990s.The response of surface runoff on climate and precipitation changes in Jilin Province was distinct and had strong relevance as well as certain lagging.Based on the analysis of the relation of rivers runoff and meteorological elements changes,statistics forecast model between river surface runoff and meteorological elements was constructed.Runoff prediction value and measured value had good relation.The corresponding river surface runoff changes can be assessed based on the changes of meteorological elements.[Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the development and utilization of surface water resources in Jilin.

Response to climate changes in radial growth of Picea crassifolia in the Qilian mountains of northwestern China

In order to investigate the response to climate changes in radial growth of Picea crassifolia at the lower tree line in the middle Qilian mountains in northwestern China, relationships of standardized chronologies of annual ring, earlywood and latewood widths with mean monthly temperature and total monthly precipitation were analyzed by ways of correlation and pointer year analyses. The results show that annual ring, earlywood and latewood widths are significantly negatively correlated with mean monthly temperature in June and July. Annual ring and earlywood widths are significantly and positively correlated with total monthly precipitation in March, May and June and negatively correlated with total monthly precipitation in September. Latewood width is less sensitive to climate changes than the width of earlywood and insignificantly sensitive to precipitation. The results of pointer year analysis revealed that when summer temperatures are higher than the mean summer temperature synchronization and the summer precipitation lower than mean summer precipitation synchronization, narrow annual rings are formed. Wide annual rings are formed when summer temperatures are lower than the mean summer temperature synchronization and summer precipitation higher than mean summer precipitation synchronization. The results indicate that more precipitation in the spring and summer is helpful for radial growth while warmer summer restricts radial growth of P. crassifolia at the lower tree line in the middle Qilian mountains.

Integrating Climate Change Factors into Environmental Planning Innovation of the National 12^(th) Five Year Development Plan towards Climate Change in China

Effects on sustainable development of climate change have been going further nowadays.National Five Year Development Plan in China should have specific policies on how to take climate change impacts into account through the environmental planning.Key fields distribute in three levels of natural bearing capacity,production system and human settlements,and include seven aspects:ecosystems,water resources,disasters and risks,low-carbon economy,vulnerable departments,urbanization,and coastland.

Urban residents'behavioral response to climate change and its influencing factors:A case study of Tianjin,China

Climate change is a global issue that poses a significant risk to the global economy and therefore warrants coordinated collective action.Employing a questionnaire survey in China,this study presents urban residents'behavioral response to climate change and its influencing factors.The results indicated that urban residents in Tianjin often took low-cost,intuitive,and quickly implementable actions,namely behavioral coping responses.Proactive adaptive behavior was also evident,which involved greater financial investment.Furthermore,according to regression analysis results of urban residents'behavior and its influencing factors,knowledge of climate change manifested a positive correlation with urban residents'behavioral coping response.In contrast,cost manifested a negative correlation with urban residents'proactive adaptive behavior,which was a more complex,costly,and challenging anticipatory action.Knowledge of climate change manifested a positive correlation with both behavioral coping response and proactive adaptive behavior.Finally,recommendations for encouraging beneficial behaviors among urban residents are suggested.

Climate Change Adaptation Planning for Biodiversity Conservation:A Review

Climate change has been linked to well-documented changes in physiology, phenology, species distributions, and in some cases, extinction. Projections of future change point to dramatic shifts in the states of many ecosystems. Aceommodating these shifts to effectively conserve biodiversity in the context of uncertain climate regimes represents one of the most difficult challenges faced by conservation planners. A number of adaptation strategies have been proposed for managing species and ecosystems in a changing climate. However, there has been little guidance available on integrating climate change adaptation strategies into contemporary conservation planning frameworks. The paper reviews the different approaches being used to integrate climate change adaptation into conservation planning, broadly categorizing strategies as continuing and extending on ＂best practice＂ principles and those that integrate species vulnerability assessments into conservation planning. We describe the characteristics of a good adaptation strategy emphasizing the importance of incorporating clear principles of flexibility and efficiency, accounting for uncertainty, integrating human response to climate change and understanding trade-offs.

Land Suitability Assessment and Landuse Planning： A Prerequisite for Food Security and Climate Change Adaptation

Though Ghana＇s crop yield growth rate was at 17%, 5% of every 1.2 million Ghanaians have insufficient and limited access to nutritious food. Climate change and climate variability have enormously affected the state of agricultural productivity and hence could result in food insecurity. As many ongoing projects use Boolean suitability analysis, land use planning, management recommendations sores, it still remains inadequate to support rural resource poor farmers. This then, is affecting livelihood and agricultural productivity. In this paper, a geostatistical quantitative method to support a geographic information system （GIS） based on multi-criteria decision support system （GMCDSS） for an enhanced land suitability assessment （LSA） and landuse planning （LP） was devised. Project findings indicated that, recommended farm inputs could be estimated and applied accordingly at farm plot levels Soil amendment indicators （e.g., 1.0 t/ha lime ＋ 1.0 t/ha gypsum was estimated for liming） was quantified and currently, farmers can save money in soil fertility management. It has shown that, instead of applying 5.0 t/ha poultry manure （PM） or five bags of N-P-K fertilizer （rate of 15： 15： 15 N-P2O5-K2O/ha） ＋ two bags of sulphate of ammonia （SA）, a farmer may apply 2.0 t/ha PM ＋ two bags 15：15：15 N-P2O5-K2O/ha ＋ one bag of SA. GMCDSS assessment has proved to be fundamental in： （1） urban planning; （2） ensuring food security; （3） poverty reduction and interventions to the effects of climate change and climate variability.

Response of Photosynthetic Plankton Communities to Late-Holocene Climate Change on the Tibetan Plateau

Sediment records from Tibetan lakes record dramatic climatic variability of the Tibetan Plateau in NW China during the Holocene.Here we investigated ancient communities of photosynthetic microbial communities in

Interannual Changes of Land Surface Radiation Components in Loess Plateau and Their Responses to Climate Change

In this paper,land surface observation data at semi-arid climate and environmental observation station（ SACOL station） of Lanzhou University during 2006- 2012 and the data of Yuzhong meteorological station were used to analyze the responses of land surface radiation budget components to climate fluctuation,study the interannual variability of surface albedo,and discuss the feedback of various land surface process parameters on the interannual fluctuations of temperature and precipitation in Loess Plateau. According to the type of precipitation in Loess Plateau,the year was divided into winter and summer in order to get more significant interannual variability and correlation. The results showed that the trends of temperature and precipitation during 2006- 2012 were consistent with the warming and drying total trend in recent years in Loess Plateau. Shallow surface soil moisture and temperature showed a good response to temperature and precipitation,and the annual variation of summer half year had greater impact on the trend in the whole year. Incident solar radiation increase was major reason for climate warming in the Loess Plateau region.The combined effect of climatic factors was the reason for the change of surface albedo. Through the distinguish inquiry by winter and summer data,it was obtained that most correlations between summer radiation components and climatic factors have been improved,and partial correlations between winter radiation components and climatic factors have been increased.

Loss and damage related to climate change:connotations and response mechanism

Global mitigative and adaptive efforts have not been able to effectively address the adverse impacts caused by climate change.Therefore,a direct solution is needed to address the significant resulting loss and damage(L&D).During the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Doha in 2012,the issue of responding to L&D arising from climate change gained sudden traction and became one of the key issues that affected the outcome of the convention.In this paper,a study on the definition and connotations of L&D arising from climate change was conducted,together with an analysis of its relationship with related concepts,namely impacts,vulnerability,and risks.This led to the proposal of an L&D conceptual model that is more comprehensive,with the recognition of the need to address the issue through effective supplementation of existing mitigative and adaptive efforts.A systematic elaboration of an L&D response mechanism was made based on politics,law,and the market,leading to a preliminary presentation of a possible format for an L&D mechanism.Potential academic research directions for L&D were also proposed that could serve as references for the establishment of international and national L&D response mechanisms and related research.

SWAT and Wavelet Analysis for Understanding the Climate Change Impact on Hydrologic Response

Quantifying the hydrological response to an increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and climate change is important in a watershed scale particularly from the application point of view. The specific objectives are to evaluate the climate change impact on the future water yield at the outlet of Clinch River Watershed upstream of Norris Lake in Tennessee, USA and see how the frequency of extreme water yield (e.g. flood) changes compared to present condition. The predicted future climate change by climate change scenarios A2 from community climate system model (CCSM) is applied. The model was calibrated using monthly average streamflow data from 1970 to 1989 and validated using similar data from 1990 to 2009 collected at a USGS gauging station 03528000. Changes in monthly average streamflow were estimated for long term (around 2099). Results were also interpreted in the time-frequency domain approach by showing how frequency of occurrence changes based on A2 scenario.

The Challenges of Global Climate Change to Green Development and its Legislative Response

Global climate change has swept across every nation,community,business,and individual on the planet. It is essential to find a fundamental solution to address climate change from a broader perspective. Climate change legislation should followthe principle of the sustainable development,polluter pays principle,the principle of the common but differentiated responsibilities as well as the principle of subsidiarity. Under the guidance of the four basic principles of legislation,the international field should build the legal system of the global climate governance,China should formulate special"the act of addressing climate change".

Investigating climate change vulnerability and planning for adaptation: Learning from a study of climate change impacts on the Mountain Gorilla in the Albertine Rift

Climate change represents an unprecedented challenge for the conservation and management of endangered species and habitats. Effective climate smart conservation will require robust predictions of vulnerability and future changes, along with the design and prioritisation of effective adaptation planning and management responses that are clearly linked to projected climate impacts. To achieve this goal, conservation managers urgently need practical tools and approaches for vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning. This article explores lessons emerging from a recent vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning exercise conducted on the impact of climate change for mountain gorilla (Gorilla beringei beringei). We describe the main findings emerging from this initiative and explore key lessons for climate change vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning for conservation management. Data limitations were a key factor determining the utility of model outputs and we stress the importance of stakeholder engagement and collaboration throughout the vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning cycle. These findings are of relevance to conservation practitioners seeking to incurporate climate change considerations into ongoing management planning for endangered species conservation.