IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS ON SOC-ECONOMY IN CHINA

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Vegetation and Climate Variations at Taibai, Qinling Mountains in Central China for the Last 3 500 cal BP

Pollen records of two swamp sections, located at Taibai Mountain, the highest peak in the Qinling Mountains of central China, show variations of vegetation and climate for the last 3 500 cal BP. The pollen assemblage at the Foyechi and Sanqingchi sections and the surface soil pollen allowed us to reconstruct a high-altitude vegetation history at Taibai Mountain for the first time. The data indicated that there was a cold-dry climate interval between 3 500 and 3 080 cal BP and a relatively warm and wet period compared with the present from 3 080 to 1 860 cal BE The warmest period in the late Holocene on Taibai Mountain was from 1 430 to 730 cal BP, with an approximate 2 ~C increase in mean annual temperature compared with today. There was a relatively cool-dry climate interval from 730 to 310 cal BE After 310 cal BE a mountain tundra vegetation developed again and the position of the modern tree line was established.

A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China

Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability, the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.

The NPO/ NAO and Interdecadal Climate Variation in China

This article discusses the interannual variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), its relationship with the interdecadal climate variation in China which is associated with the climate jump in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1960’s, using the data analyses. It is clearly shown that both the amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increase obviously in the 1960’s and the main period of the oscillations changes from 3-4 years before the 1960’s to 8–15 years after the 1960’s. Therefore, interdecadal climate variation in China or the climate jump in the 1960’s is closely related to the anomalies of the NAO and NPO. Key words North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) - Climate Jump - Interdecadal climate variation This work was supported by National Key Basic Science Program in China (G1998040903), Chinese Academy of Science and the National Natural Science Fundation of China (Grant No.49823002).The authors are also grateful to Ms. Wang Xuan for typing the manuscript.

Impact of climate variation on fog in China

Using foggy days and mean temperature and relative humidity data of 602 stations from January to December in the period 1961-2003 in China, the relationship between variations of foggy days and temperature and its possible reason for the 43 years were analyzed by regression, correlation and contrastive analysis methods. The results show that the higher （lower） the mean temperature and the lower （higher） the relative humidity correspond to less （more） foggy days, the relationship is the best in the western, northern and eastern Sichuan, Yunnan-Guizhon Plateau, and southeast highland in China. This induces a decrease in relative humidity when the climate becomes warmer, and eventually brings about a decrease in foggy days in China.

Analysis on the Climate Variation Characteristics of Frost in Shandong Province

[Objective] The research aimed to study the climate variation characteristics of frost in Shandong Province. [Method] The daily minimum surface temperature ≤ 0 ℃ in autumn or spring was as the frost index. Based on the daily minimum surface temperature data in 67 meteorological observatories of Shandong Province during 1961-2008, the variation characteristics of first, last frost dates and frost-free period in Shandong Province were analyzed by using the climate diagnosis analysis method. [Result] The climate characteristics of first, last frost dates and frost-free period had the obvious geographical differences in Shandong Province in recent 48 years. The extreme differences of first, last frost dates and frost-free period were all above the three times of their standard deviations. It illustrated that the dispersion degrees of first, last dates and frost-free period were all very big. The average first frost date postponed with 1.99 d/10 a velocity in Shandong Province in recent 48 years, and the last frost date advanced with 1.46 d/10 a velocity. The postponing range of first frost date was bigger than the advancing range of last frost date, and the frost-free period prolonged with 3.42 d/10 a velocity. Seen from the interdecadal variations, the first frost date started to obviously postpone, and the last frost date obviously advanced since the 1990s. The frost-free period also started to obviously prolong since the 1990s. [Conclusion] The research provided the certain reference for the predication, prevention of frost disaster and the structure adjustment of crops.

Global sea level variations from altimetry,GRACE and Argo data over 2005-2014

Total sea level variations（SLVs） are caused by two major components：steric variations due to thermal expansion of seawater,and mass-induced variations due to mass exchange between ocean and land.In this study,the global SLV and its steric and mass components were estimated by satellite altimetry,Argo float data and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） data over 2005-2014.Space gravimetry observations from GRACE suggested that two-thirds of the global mean sea level rise rate observed by altimetry（i.e.,3.1 ± 0.3 mm/a from 2005 to 2014） could be explained by an increase in ocean mass.Furthermore,the global mean sea level was observed to drop significantly during the2010/2011 La Nina event,which may be attributed to the decline of ocean mass and steric SLV.Since early 2011,the global mean sea level began to rise rapidly,which was attributed to an increase in ocean mass.The findings in this study suggested that the global mean sea-level budget was closed from 2005 to 2014 based on altimetry,GRACE,and Argo data.

Water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin estimated from GRACE and satellite altimetry

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） satellite mission provides a unique opportunity to quantitatively study terrestrial water storage（TWS） variations. In this paper,the terrestrial water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin are recovered from the GRACE gravity data from January 2003 to March 2014 and compared with the Global Land Data Assimilation System（GLDAS） hydrological models and satellite altimetry. Furthermore, the impact of soil moisture content from GLDAS and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission（TRMM） on TWS variations are investigated. Our results indicate that the TWS variations from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry have a general consistency. The TWS trends in the Poyang Lake Basin determined from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry are increasing at 0.0141 km^3/a, 0.0328 km^3/a and 0.0238 km^3/a,respectively during the investigated time period. The TWS is governed mainly by the soil moisture content and dominated primarily by the precipitation but also modulated by the flood season of the Yangtze River as well as the lake and river exchange water.

Analysis on the Change Characteristics of Climate in Suizhong in Recent 55 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of climate in Suizhong in recent 55 years.[Method] Based on the meteorological observation data (temperature,sunshine,precipitation,etc.) in Suizhong County during 1956-2010,the variation trend,the time and stability which stably passed one threshold of meteorological factors were analyzed by using the linear regression,five-day sliding average and deviation coefficient.The change characteristics of climate in Suizhong County in recent 55 years were grasped.[Result] In recent 55 years,the temperature in Suizhong presented the rise trend.In recent 25 years (1986-2010),the temperature rise was obvious.The rise ranges of winter average temperature and average minimum temperature were big.Moreover,the variation range was big,and the stability was bad.The variation trends of frost-free period and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature were basically consistent with that of temperature.The sunshine hours overall presented the decline trend,which wasn’t obvious.It presented the rise trend in winter half year and the decline trend in summer half year.The decline trend in summer was obvious.The rainfall overall presented the decline trend.Spring precipitation presented the rise trend.The precipitation in summer and autumn presented the decline trend.The variation range of precipitation in winter was big,and the stability was bad.The variation range of precipitation in summer was small,and the stability was good.[Conclusion] The research provided the basis for management department understanding and grasping the variation characteristics of local climate,disaster prevention and reduction.

Study on Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Climate Variation in Hebei Area during 1956-2007

[Objective] The research aimed to study temporal and spatial characteristics of climate variation in Hebei area during 1956-2007. [Method] Based on the data from 23 weather stations evenly distributed over Hebei area (included Beijing and Tianjin) during 1956-2007, by using statistical analytic method, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of main meteorological factors (temperature and precipitation, etc.) in the area were analyzed. The variation fact and evolution rule of climate in the area in 52 years were discussed. [Result] In Hebei area during 1956-2007, the annual and four-season temperatures both presented wavy rise trends. The temperature increment in winter was the maximum, contributing the most to the annual temperature elevation in this area. The temperatures in the whole district all presented rise trends, and the variation difference had regularity. The annual and four-season rainfalls both had large fluctuation amplitudes, following different linear variation trends. The annual rainfall overall presented wavy decrease trends. The spatial difference of rainfall variation was significant. The rainfalls in the whole district all presented decrease trends. The decrease amplitude presented low-high-low pattern from the northeast to the southwest. The potential evaporation capacity over the whole district was the highest in the 1960s, and decreased ever since instead of increasing with the temperature. The potential evaporation capacities of each season also presented decline trends. Except in Fengning and Yuxian, the evaporation capacities of other stations in the whole district all presented decline trends. The relative humidity slightly decreased as time, with the exception of Chengde, Qinhuangdao and Nangong. The sunshine hours had a clear decrease trends. [Conclusion] The research provided scientific basis for realizing regional sustainable development, improving ecological environment and people’s life quality.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CHINA ANOMALOUS CLIMATE VARIATION AND ENSO CYCLE ON THE QUASI-FOUR-YEAR SCALE

The relationship between the ENSO and abnormal variation of precipitation and temperature in China is investigated based on the monthly data. Firstly, interannual variability of precipitation and temperature are discussed in different sub-areas using Rotational EOF (REOF). Then, the variation of precipitation and temperature in different phases of ENSO cycle is each investigated with Complex Singular Value Decomposition (CSVD). Results show that, during the period of El Nio, precipitation in the eastern China, especially in the northeastern China and Yangtze River valley, is much more than normal and is apt to flood. Precipitation in northern China and Huanghe River valley, especially in the middle reach of Huanghe River, is less than normal and is apt to be less. Precipitation in the Yangtze River valley is closely related to the SSTA in the central and eastern tropical Pacific on the QFO scale, and the precipitation variation lags behind SSTA by about 3 months. For the variation of surface temperature, during the period of El Nio, it is usually colder than normal in northeastern China, and in other regions, especially in the region of Great Bend of the Yellow River and southwestern China, is warmer than normal. The temperature in northeast China is closely associated with SSTA in eastern Pacific on the QFO scale and the surface temperature variation in the northeast China lags behind that of SSTA about 2 months.

乌鲁木齐市近40年相对湿度气候特征分析(英文)

By using the daily average relative humidity data in Urumqi during 1961-2000,the basic climate characteristics and the variation trend of relative humidity in Urumqi in recent 40 years were analyzed.The results showed that the yearly average relative humidity in Urumqi was 57.5%.The relative humidity in winter was 77.5% which was the biggest all the year round,and the relative humidity in summer was 41.2% which was the smallest.The relative humidity in spring,summer,autumn,winter and the yearly relative humidity all displayed the increase trend.The yearly mean relative humidity had the periods of mainly 2,3-4 and quasi-7 years.The periodic oscillation of quasi-7 years was the strongest.

Sustainability of Wind Energy under Changing Wind Regimes—A Case Study

A method was introduced to assess the sustainability of energy production over the lifetime (~20 y) of wind turbines. Community Earth System Model simulations were downscaled for the tourist seasons (mid-May to mid-September) of 2006 to 2012 (CESM-P1) and 2026 to 2032 (CESM-P2) to obtain a reference and projected wind-speed climatology, respectively. The wind speeds served to calculate the potential power output and capacity factors of seven turbine types. CESM-P1 wind-speed climatology, power output, and capacity factors were compared to those derived from wind speeds obtained by numerical weather forecasts for reference to known standard to wind-farm managers. Juneau, Alaska served as a virtual testbed as this region is known to experience changes in wind speeds in response to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. CESM-P2 suggested about 2% decrease for wind speeds between the speeds at cut-in and rated power, and about 8% - 10% decrease in potential wind-power output. This means that in regions of decadal climate variations, the sustainability of wind-energy production should be part of the decision-making process. The study demonstrated that using mean values of wind-speeds can provide qualitative knowledge about decreases/increases in potential energy production, but not about the magnitude. Using the total individual wind-speed data of all seasons provided the same amount of total power output than summing up the power outputs of individual seasons. The main advantage of calculating individual seasonal wind-power outputs, however, is that it theoretically permits assessment of interannual variability in power output and capacity factors. Comparison to a known standard may help stakeholders in understanding of uncertainty and interpretation of projected changes.

Dryland Expansion in Northern China from 1948 to 2008

This study examines the expansion of drylands and regional climate change in northern China by analyzing the variations in aridity index （AI）, surface air temperature （SAT）, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration （PET） from 1948 to 2008. It is found that the drylands of northern China have expanded remarkably in the last 61 years. The area of drylands of the last 15 years （1994--2008） is 0.65 × 106 km2 （12%） larger than that in the period 1948-62. The boundary of drylands has extended eastward over Northeast China by about 2 °of longitude and by about 1° of latitude to the south along the middle- to-lower reaches of the Yellow River. A zonal band of expansion of semi-arid regions has occurred, stretching from western Heilongjiang Province to southern Gansu Province, while shifts to the east of semi-arid regions in dry subhumid regions have also occurred. Results show that the aridity trend of drylands in northern China is highly correlated with the long-term trend of precipitation and PET, and the expansion of semi-arid regions plays a dominant role in the areal extent of drylands, which is nearly 10 times larger than that in arid and subhumid regions.

The climatic and hydrological changes and environmental responses recorded in lake sediments of Xinjiang,China

Based on the analyses of environmental proxy data in lake sediments and instrumental records of Xinjiang in northwest China, the Holocene climate and hydrological variability and its environmental responses were studied in different time scales and regions. The results showed that the Holocene climate variability had obvious differences between the north and south of Xinjiang. In northern Xinjiang, the Holocene climate was dry in the early period, humid in the middle period, and then changed to dry in the late period. However, the climate transition times were not consistent in different regions. In southern Xin- jiang, although there were many different types of climate change patterns inferred from different catch- ments, the warm and wet climate was recorded in most lake sediments in the middle Holocene. According to comparisons of some millennium scale records in lake sediments, the climate was warm and dry in the past 100 years. It can be concluded the climate showed a trend of aridity in Holocene. Especially in recent 50 years, the lake area has been shrinking rapidly because of the population growth and social economic development, which brings some environmental problems. Lake level and area changes were sensitively affected by the climate variation in geological history of Xinjiang and the lake level will continue to shrink because of the drought climate and strengthened human activities.

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the fog regions in China

The spatial distribution and monthly/annual variation of foggy days in China are analyzed based on the monthly mean fog data collected from 604 observational stations for the period 1961-2000. Results show that there are six fog regions in China： the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas, Yunnan-Gulzhou Plateau, eastern Gansu-Shaanxi region, Huaihe River valley, Tianshan mountainous area and northern Xinjiang. On the whole the interannual variation trend of foggy days is descending, especially an obvious decline after the 1980s. The areas where the foggy days have obvious tendency present a southwest-northeast direction. The rising trend regions alternate with descending trend regions, forming a SE-NW directional wave structure. In general, the number of foggy days in autumn and winter is larger than in spring and summer over most fog regions. The monthly variation curves of foggy days are bimodal in the coastal area of the Yellow Sea and northern Xinjiang, and unimodal in other regions.

Preliminary Analysis of Climatic Variation during the Last 39 Years in China

The preliminary analysis of climatic variation in China during the last 39 years has been made in this paper. The results show that although the global climate is getting warmer, some parts of China are cooling. The warming only occurs in Northeast, North and the west part of Northwest China while the areas between about 35°N and Nanling Mountain, east of the Tibetan Plateau in China are getting cooler. The cooling centers are located in Sichuan, the south part of Shaanxi and the north part of Yunnan respectively. According to the theory of greenhouse effect, there are much precipitation at low and high latitudes and less precipitation in middle latitude. However, the precipitation in the most parts of China has been decreased, especially in North and Northwest China.

Identification and analysis of root causes of desertification in semi-arid region of China──a case study from Ejin Horo Banner, Inner Mongolia

A case study on the driving forces of desertification in the semi-arid region was carried out in the Ejin Horo Banner of Inner Mongolia. The occurrence and development of desertification were demonstrated and its driving factors were identified and analyzed. The results obtained indicated that over-reclamation of land overgrazing and denudation of natural vegetation cover were immediate and dominant factors causing land vulnerability to desertification. For a better understanding of the deep-rooted causes of the inappropriate land use and agricultural practices, the problems arising from various socioeconomic facets were comprehensively discussed.

Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan

The multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change.This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge.This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin(SRB)under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM)and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM).Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988–1992 and 1993–1997.Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor,temperature,and precipitation gradients.The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment.However,MPDDM estimated 68%of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon,while GDM estimated 14%rain and baseflow contribution.Likewise,MPDDM calculated 32%,and GDM generated 86%of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt.MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation,respectively.Similarly,GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period.The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB,and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability.Based on the sensitivity analysis,both models’outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature.Furthermore,compared to MPDDM,GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios,RCP4.5 and 8.5,mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change.The integration of an updated melt module and two reservoir baseflow module in GDM is anticipated to advance the representation of hydrological components,unlike one reservoir baseflow module used separately in MPDDM.The restructured melt and baseflow modules in GDM have fundamentally enriched our perception of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the catchment.