Spatio-temporal Variation Characteristics of Extreme Climate Events and Their Teleconnections to Large-scale Ocean-atmospheric Circulation Patterns in Huaihe River Basin,China During 1959–2019

Huaihe River Basin(HRB) is located in China’s north-south climatic transition zone,which is very sensitive to global climate change.Based on the daily maximum temperature,minimum temperature,and precipitation data of 40 meteorological stations and nine monthly large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices data during 1959–2019,we present an assessment of the spatial and temporal variations of extreme temperature and precipitation events in the HRB using nine extreme climate indices,and analyze the teleconnection relationship between extreme climate indices and large-scale ocean-atmospheric circulation indices.The results show that warm extreme indices show a significant(P < 0.05) increasing trend,while cold extreme indices(except for cold spell duration) and diurnal temperature range(DTR) show a significant decreasing trend.Furthermore,all extreme temperature indices show significant mutations during 1959-2019.Spatially,a stronger warming trend occurs in eastern HRB than western HRB,while maximum 5-d precipitation(Rx5day) and rainstorm days(R25) show an increasing trend in the southern,central,and northwestern regions of HRB.Arctic oscillation(AO),Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO),and East Atlantic/Western Russia(EA/WR) have a stronger correlation with extreme climate indices compared to other circulation indices.AO and AMO(EA/WR) exhibit a significant(P < 0.05) negative(positive)correlation with frost days and diurnal temperature range.Extreme warm events are strongly correlated with the variability of AMO and EA/WR in most parts of HRB,while extreme cold events are closely related to the variability of AO and AMO in eastern HRB.In contrast,AMO,AO,and EA/WR show limited impacts on extreme precipitation events in most parts of HRB.

Assessment of Climate Change over South America under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 Downscaling Scenarios

Four sets of downscaling simulations based on the Eta Regional Climate Model forced by two global climate models, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5, and two RCP scenarios—8.5 and 4.5, have been carried out. The objective of this work is to assess the climate change over South America based on the Eta simulations. The future changes are shown in timeslices of 30 years: 2011-2040;2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The climate change response of the Eta simulations nested in HadGEM2-ES is larger than the Eta nested in MIROC5. Major warming area is located in the central part of Brazil. In austral summer, the reduction of precipitation in the central part and the increase in the southeastern part of the continent are common changes in these simulations, while the EtaHadGEM2-ES intensifies the decrease of precipitation in central Brazil, the Eta-MIROC5 expands the area of increase of precipitation in southern Brazil toward the end of the century. In austral winter, precipitation decrease is found in the northern part of South America and in most of Central America, whereas the reduction in southeastern South America is limited to near coastal region. The time series of temperatures show that warming trends are larger in the Eta-HadGEM2-ES than in the Eta-MIROC5 simulations. Heavier precipitation rates are projected in the Central-South of Brazil toward the end of the century. Increase in the length of consecutive dry days (CDD) in Northeast of Brazil and the decrease of consecutive wet days (CWD) in the Amazon region are common features in these simulations.

Evaluation of the Eta Simulations Nested in Three Global Climate Models

To provide long-term simulations of climate change at higher resolution, Regional Climate Models (RCMs) are nested in global climate models (GCMs). The objective of this work is to evaluate the Eta RCM simulations driven by three global models, the HadGEM2-ES, BESM, and MIROC5, for the present period, 1961-1990. The RCM domain covers South America, Central America, and Caribbean. These simulations will be used for assessment of climate change projections in the region. Maximum temperatures are generally underestimated in the domain, in particular by MIROC5 driven simulations, in summer and winter seasons. Larger spread among the simulations was found in the minimum temperatures, which showed mixed signs of errors. The spatial correlations of temperature simulations against the CRU observations show better agreement for the MIROC5 driven simulations. The nested simulations underestimate precipitation in large areas over the continent in austral summer, whereas in winter overestimate occurs in southern Amazonia, and underestimate in southern Brazil and eastern coast of Northeast Brazil. The annual cycle of the near-surface temperature is underestimated in all model simulations, in all regions in Brazil, and in most of the year. The temperature and precipitation frequency distributions reveal that the RCM and GCM simulations contain more extreme values than the CRU observations. Evaluations of the climatic extreme indicators show that in general hot days, warm nights, and heat waves are increasing in the period, in agreement with observations. The Eta simulations driven by HadGEM2-ES show wet trends in the period, whereas the Eta driven by BESM and by MIROC5 show trends for drier conditions.

Extreme Rainfall Indices in the Hydrographic Basins of Brazil

The authors analyze climate extremes indices (CEI) of rainfall over the largest basins of the Brazilian territory: Amazon (AMA), S?o Francisco (SF), Tocantins (TO) and Paraná (PAR) rivers. The CEI represent the frequency of heavy precipitation events (R30mm and R95p) and short duration extreme rainfall (RX5day and RX1day). Droughts (CDDd) are identified based on two indicators: The longest dry period (CDD) and the annual cycle. The results demonstrate that CDDd, RX1day and RX5day occurred with more frequency and intensity in SF basin during El Ni?o events. CDDd was of greater magnitude in the TO basin during La Ni?a events, while an increase of RX1day occurred in El Ni?o. The strong El Ni?o events (1983 and 1997) caused more intense and frequent RX1day and R30mm over the PAR basin. Amazon droughts occurred in two out of the six El Ni?o events. Moreover, the relationship between the positive (negative) sea superficial temperatures anomalies in North (South) Tropical Atlantic and drought in AMA basin was corroborated. A gradual warming of SST was observed at the start of 2003 until it achieved a maximum in 2005 associated with the southwestern Amazon drought. The second highest anomaly of SST was in 2010 linked with drought that was more spatially extensive than the 2005 drought. The spatial distribution of annual trends showed a significant increase of CDD in south-eastern AMA, Upper SF, northern PAR and throughout the TO basins. R20mm, RX1day and RX5day tend to increase significantly in southwestern (northeast) PAR (AMA) and northwestern TO basins. Comparisons between CEI derived from daily precipitation data from Climate Prediction Center (CPCp) and of the ETA_HadCM3 model showed that the model overestimated RX1day, RX5day and CDD, in the four basins. Future scenarios show that dry periods will occur with greatest magnitude in all the basins until 2071-2099 time slice, while RX1day will be more intense in the TO and SF basins.

Trends in Seasonal Precipitation over China during 1961-2007

Trends in six indices of precipitation in China for seasons during 1961-2007 were analyzed based on daily observations at 587 stations. The trends were estimated by using Sen's method with Mann-Kendall's test for quantifying the significance. The geographical patterns of trends in the seasonal indices of extremes were similar to those of total precipitation. For winter, both total and extreme precipitation increased over nearly all of China, except for a small part of northern China. Increasing trends in extreme precipitation also occurred at many stations in southwestern China for spring and the midlower reaches of the Yangtze River and southern China for summer. For autumn, precipitation decreased in eastern China, with an increasing length of maximum dry spell, implying a drying tendency for the post-rainy season. Wetting trends have prevailed in most of western China for all seasons. The well-known 'flood in the south and drought in the north' trend exists in eastern China for summer, while a nearly opposite trend pattern exist for spring.

Characterizing the Spatio-temporal Dynamics and Variability in Climate Extremes over the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2012

Extreme climate events play an important role in studies of long-term climate change. As the Earth’s Third Pole, the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate change and variation. In this study on the TP, the spatiotemporal changes in climate extreme indices(CEIs) are analyzed based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperatures and precipitation at 98 meteorological stations, most with elevations of at least 4000 m above sea level, during 1960–2012. Fifteen temperature extreme indices(TEIs) and eight precipitation extreme indices(PEIs) were calculated. Then, their long-term change patterns, from spatial and temporal perspectives, were determined at regional, eco-regional and station levels. The entire TP region exhibits a significant warming trend, as reflected by the TEIs. The regional cold days and nights show decreasing trends at rates of-8.9 d(10 yr)-1(days per decade) and-17.3 d(10 yr)-1, respectively. The corresponding warm days and nights have increased by 7.6 d(10 yr)-1 and 12.5 d(10 yr)-1, respectively. At the station level, the majority of stations indicate statistically significant trends for all TEIs, but they show spatial heterogeneity. The eco-regional TEIs show patterns that are consistent with the entire TP. The growing season has become longer at a rate of 5.3 d(10 yr)^-1. The abrupt change points for CEIs were examined, and they were mainly distributed during the 1980 s and 1990 s. The PEIs on the TP exhibit clear fluctuations and increasing trends with small magnitudes. The annual total precipitation has increased by 2.8 mm(10 yr)^-1(not statistically significant). Most of the CEIs will maintain a persistent trend, as indicated by their Hurst exponents. The developing trends of the CEIs do not show a corresponding change with increasing altitude. In general, the warming trends demonstrate an asymmetric pattern reflected by the rapid increase in the warming trends of the cold TEIs, which are of greater magnitudes than those of the warm TEIs. This finding indicates a positive shift in the distribution of the daily minimum temperatures throughout the TP. Most of the PEIs show weak increasing trends, which are not statistically significant. This work aims to delineate a comprehensive picture of the extreme climate conditions over the TP that can enhance our understanding of its changing climate.

Variability and change of climate extremes from indigenous herder knowledge and at meteorological stations across central Mongolia

In semi-arid regions,air temperatures have increased in the last decades more than in many other parts of the world.Mongolia has an arid/semi-arid climate and much of the population are herders whose livelihoods depend upon limited water resources that fluctuate with a variable climate.Herders were surveyed to identify their observations of changes in climate extremes for two soums of central Mongolia,Ikh-Tamir in the forest steppe north of the Khangai Mountains and Jinst in the desert steppe south of the mountains.The herders’indigenous knowledge of changes in climate extremes mostly aligned with the station-based analyses of change.Temperatures were warming with more warm days and nights at all stations.There were fewer cool days and nights observed at the mountain stations both in the summer and winter,yet more cool days and nights were observed in the winter at the desert steppe station.The number of summer days is increasing while the number of frost days is decreasing at all stations.The results of this study support further use of local knowledge and meteorological observations to provide more holistic analysis of climate change in different regions of the world.

An assessment method of annual climatic status in China using extreme climate indices:2021 as an example

A proper assessment of annual climatic status(ACS)is conducive to rationally formulating disaster prevention and mitigation measures.The former definition of ACS lacks either information on extreme climate or an intuitive grade feature service to the public.The ACS defined in the National Standard of the People's Republic of China(GBACS)only considers the accumulated climate effects of each weighted 10-d temperature/precipitation anomaly in a year.Under global warming,the losses caused by extreme climate events often have a significant impact on the grades of ACS,but this impact cannot be reasonably reflected by GBACS.This study proposed the assessment of ACS using extreme climate indices(extreme climate-based ACS(ECACS))and compared it with GBACS.The results indicated that GBACS and ECACS can be used to evaluate the ACS from different angles.The ECACS is an important supplement to the GBACS,especially considering the years with frequently occurring extreme climate events.The sum of GBACS and ECACS is a reasonable and comprehensive way to evaluate the ACS.The empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis indicated a uniform mode(EOF1)and a dipole mode(EOF2)in GBACS and ECACS in China.The interannual variation characteristics of ECACS in northern and southern China(EOF2 pattern)are consistent with real climate features,which is conducive to providing better and more detailed regional information in the ACS forecast service.The results have essential instructive and application value for ACS assessment and government decision making.

Trends in extreme climatic indices across the temperate steppes of China from 1961 to 2013

Aims Extreme climate events have become more severe and frequent with global change in recent years.The Chinese temperate steppes are an important component of the Eurasian steppes and highly sensitive and vulnerable to climatic change.As a result,the occur-rence of extreme climate events must have strong impacts on the temperate steppes.Therefore,understanding the spatio-temporal trends in extreme climate is important for us to assess the sensitivity and vulnerability of Chinese temperate steppes to climatic changes.This research had two specific objects to(i)specify the temporal changes in extreme climate events across the whole steppe and(ii)compare the trend differences for extreme climate events in differ-ent types of steppes-meadow steppe,typical steppe and desert steppe.Methods To investigate extreme climate trends in the temperate steppes of China,82 meteorological stations with daily temperature and precipi-tation data(1961-2013)were used.Meanwhile,eight core extreme climate indices(extreme high-temperature threshold,extreme low-temperature threshold,frost days,heatwave duration,heavy rain-fall threshold,percentage of heavy rainfall,heavy rainfall days and consecutive dry days)from the Statistical and Regional Dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European Regions(STARDEX)project were selected to analyse the trends in extreme climate across the whole temperate steppe and the three main types(meadow steppe,typical steppe and desert steppe)through time and space.Important Findings The results showed that(i)the changes in extreme climatic tem-perature events across the whole temperate steppe were obvi-ous during 1961-2013.The frost days(−3.40 days/10 year[yr])decreased significantly,while the extreme high-temperature thresh-old(0.24℃/10 yr),extreme low-temperature threshold(0.52℃/10 yr),and heatwave duration(0.58 days/10 yr)increased notably.The annual changes in extreme precipitation were small and not sig-nificant.(ii)Differences appeared in the extreme climatic trends in different types of steppes.The desert steppe showed strong climate extremes and underwent the most significant asymmetric warming compared with the meadow steppe and typical steppe.At the same time,the heatwave duration(0.62 days/10 yr)increased.In terms of the extreme precipitation,there was no significant trend among the three types of steppes.However,the fluctuations in extreme precipi-tation were the largest in the desert steppe compared to those in the typical steppe and meadow steppe.