Influences of agricultural phenology dynamic on land surface biophysical process and climate feedback

Response and feedback of land surface research priorities in the field of geoscience. The process to climate change is one of the current study paid more attention to the impacts of global change on land surface process, but the feedback of land surface process to climate change has been poorly understood. It is becoming more and more meaningful under the framework of Earth system science to understand systematically the relationships between agricultural phenology dynamic and biophysical process, as well as the feedback on climate. In this paper, we summarized the research progress in this field, including the fact of agricultural phenology change, parameterization of phenology dynamic in land surface progress model, the influence of agricultural phenology dynamic on biophysical process, as well as its feedback on climate. The results showed that the agriculture phenophase, represented by the key phenological phases such as sowing, flowering and maturity, had shifted significantly due to the impacts of climate change and agronomic management. The digital expressions of land surface dynamic process, as well as the biophysical process and atmospheric process, were improved by coupling phenology dynamic in land surface model. The agricultural phenology dynamic had influenced net radiation, latent heat, sensible heat, albedo, temperature, precipitation, circulation, playing an important role in the surface energy partitioning and climate feedback. Considering the importance of agricultural phenology dynamic in land surface biophysical process and climate feedback, the following research priorities should be stressed： （1） the interactions between climate change and land surface phenology dynamic; （2） the relations between agricultural phenology dynamic and land surface reflectivity at different spectrums; （3） the contributions of crop physiology characteristic changes to land surface biophysical process; （4） the regional differences of climate feedbacks from phenology dynamic in different climate zones. This review is helpful to accelerate understanding of the role of agricultural phenology dynamic in land surface process and climate feedback.

Uncertainty in the 2℃ Warming Threshold Related to Climate Sensitivity and Climate Feedback

Climate sensitivity is an important index that measures the relationship between the increase in greenhouse gases and the magnitude of global warming.Uncertainties in climate change projection and climate modeling are mostly related to the climate sensitivity.The climate sensitivities of coupled climate models determine the magnitudes of the projected global warming.In this paper,the authors thoroughly review the literature on climate sensitivity,and discuss issues related to climate feedback processes and the methods used in estimating the equilibrium climate sensitivity and transient climate response（TCR）,including the TCR to cumulative CO2 emissions.After presenting a summary of the sources that affect the uncertainty of climate sensitivity,the impact of climate sensitivity on climate change projection is discussed by addressing the uncertainties in 2℃ warming.Challenges that call for further investigation in the research community,in particular the Chinese community,are discussed.

Evaluating effects of atmospheric CO_2 on stability of global climate:a cell-to-cell mapping approach

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2],incoming solar radiation and sea ice coverage are among the most important factors that control the global climate.By applying the simple cell-to-cell mapping technique to a simplified atmosphere-ocean-sea ice feedback climate model,effects of these factors on the stability of the climatic system are studied.The current climatic system is found to be stable but highly nonlinear.The resiliency of stability increases with [CO2] to a summit when [CO2] reaches 290 μL/L which is comparable to the pre-industrial level,suggesting carbon dioxide is essential to the stability of the global climate.With [CO2] rising further,the global climate stability decreases,the mean ocean temperature goes up and the sea ice coverage shrinks in the polar region.When the incoming solar radiation is intensified,the ice coverage gradually diminishes,but the mean ocean temperature remains relatively constant.Overall,our analysis suggests that at the current levels of three external factors the stability of global climate is highly resilient.However,there exists a possibility of extreme states of climate,such as a snow-ball earth and an ice-free earth.

Misdiagnosis of Earth climate sensitivity based on energy balance model results

Monckton of Brenchley et al.(Sci Bull60:122–135, 2015)(hereafter called M15) use a simple energy balance model to estimate climate response. They select parameters for this model based on semantic arguments, leading to different results from those obtained in physics-based studies. M15 did not validate their model against observations, but instead created synthetic test data based on subjective assumptions. We show that M15 systematically underestimate warming: since 1990, most years were warmer than their modelled upper limit. During 2000–2010, RMS error and bias are approximately 150 % and 350 % larger than for the CMIP5 median, using either the Berkeley Earth or Cowtan and Way surface temperature data. We show that this poor performance can be explained by a logical flaw in theparameter selection and that selected parameters contradict observational estimates. M15 also conclude that climate has a near-instantaneous response to forcing, implying no net energy imbalance for the Earth. This contributes to their low estimates of future warming and is falsified by Argo float measurements that show continued ocean heating and therefore a sustained energy imbalance. M15's estimates of climate response and future global warming are not consistent with measurements and so cannot be considered credible.

Fast action on short-lived climate pollutants and nature-based solutions to help countries meet carbon neutrality goals

Scientific studies show that fast actions to reduce near-term warming are essential to slowing self-reinforcing climate feedbacks and avoiding irreversible tipping points.Yet cutting CO_(2) emissions only marginally impacts near-term warming,This study identifies two of the most ffective mitigation strategies to limit near-term warming beyond CO_(2) mitigation,namely reducing short-lived climate pollutants(SLCPs)and promoting targeted nature-based solutions(NbS),and comprehensively reviews the latest scientifie progress in these fields.Studies show that quickly reducing SLCP emissions,particularly hydrofuorocarbons(HFCs),methane,and black carbon,from ll relevant sectors can avoid up to 0.6℃ of warming by 2050.Additionally,promoting targeted NbS that protect and enhance natural carbon sinks ncluding in forests,wetlands,grasslands,and agricultural lands,can avoid emssions of 23.8 Gt of CO_(2)e per year in 2030,without jeopardizing food security and biodiversity.Based on the scientific evidence,we provided a series of policy recommendations on SLCPs and NbS,including:1)implementing the Kigali Amendment to reduce HFC emissions;2)deploying cost-effective,sector-based measures to reduce methane and black carbon emissions;and 3)implementing targeted NbS to protect and enhance existing carbon sinks and shifting away from forest-burning bioenergy.These fast-acting strategies on SLCPs and NbS will play a key role in securing the most avoided warming in the near-term and help countries meet their mid-century carbon neutrality goals.Finally,we proposed future research topics,including:improving measurement and monitoring systems and techniques for SLCP emissions;developing and improving assessments of marginal abatement costs for SLCP mitigation in dfferent sectors;better quantifying the avoided warming potential from protecting dfferent types of natural carbon sinks by 2030,2050,and over longer periods;and identifying whether there are any biomass types for energy sources that are consistent with the United Nations Environment Assembly's 2022 resolution adopting a definition of NbS.Further research in these areas could help address barriers to adoption and assist countries with better integrating the most effective SLCP and NbS strategies into their climate policies.

Connection Between Atmospheric Latent Energy and Energy Fluxes Simulated by Nine CMIP5 Models

The atmospheric latent energy and incoming energy fluxes of the atmosphere are analyzed here based on the historical simulations of nine coupled models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） and two reanalysis datasets. The globally averaged atmospheric latent energy is found to be highly correlated with several types of energy flux, particularly the surface latent heat flux, atmosphere absorbed solar radiation flux, and surface net radiation flux. On the basis of these connections, a hydrological cycle controlled feedback （HCCF） is hypothesized. Through this feedback, the atmosphere absorbed solar radiation is enhanced and causes intensification of the surface latent heat flux when the atmospheric latent energy is abnormally strong. The representativeness of the HCCF during different periods and over different latitudinal zones is also discussed. Although such a feedback cannot be confirmed by reanalysis, it proves to be a common mechanism for all the models studied.