A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China

Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability, the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.

The NPO/ NAO and Interdecadal Climate Variation in China

This article discusses the interannual variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), its relationship with the interdecadal climate variation in China which is associated with the climate jump in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1960’s, using the data analyses. It is clearly shown that both the amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increase obviously in the 1960’s and the main period of the oscillations changes from 3-4 years before the 1960’s to 8–15 years after the 1960’s. Therefore, interdecadal climate variation in China or the climate jump in the 1960’s is closely related to the anomalies of the NAO and NPO. Key words North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) - Climate Jump - Interdecadal climate variation This work was supported by National Key Basic Science Program in China (G1998040903), Chinese Academy of Science and the National Natural Science Fundation of China (Grant No.49823002).The authors are also grateful to Ms. Wang Xuan for typing the manuscript.

Analysis on the Climate Variation Characteristics of Frost in Shandong Province

[Objective] The research aimed to study the climate variation characteristics of frost in Shandong Province. [Method] The daily minimum surface temperature ≤ 0 ℃ in autumn or spring was as the frost index. Based on the daily minimum surface temperature data in 67 meteorological observatories of Shandong Province during 1961-2008, the variation characteristics of first, last frost dates and frost-free period in Shandong Province were analyzed by using the climate diagnosis analysis method. [Result] The climate characteristics of first, last frost dates and frost-free period had the obvious geographical differences in Shandong Province in recent 48 years. The extreme differences of first, last frost dates and frost-free period were all above the three times of their standard deviations. It illustrated that the dispersion degrees of first, last dates and frost-free period were all very big. The average first frost date postponed with 1.99 d/10 a velocity in Shandong Province in recent 48 years, and the last frost date advanced with 1.46 d/10 a velocity. The postponing range of first frost date was bigger than the advancing range of last frost date, and the frost-free period prolonged with 3.42 d/10 a velocity. Seen from the interdecadal variations, the first frost date started to obviously postpone, and the last frost date obviously advanced since the 1990s. The frost-free period also started to obviously prolong since the 1990s. [Conclusion] The research provided the certain reference for the predication, prevention of frost disaster and the structure adjustment of crops.

Study on Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Climate Variation in Hebei Area during 1956-2007

[Objective] The research aimed to study temporal and spatial characteristics of climate variation in Hebei area during 1956-2007. [Method] Based on the data from 23 weather stations evenly distributed over Hebei area (included Beijing and Tianjin) during 1956-2007, by using statistical analytic method, the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of main meteorological factors (temperature and precipitation, etc.) in the area were analyzed. The variation fact and evolution rule of climate in the area in 52 years were discussed. [Result] In Hebei area during 1956-2007, the annual and four-season temperatures both presented wavy rise trends. The temperature increment in winter was the maximum, contributing the most to the annual temperature elevation in this area. The temperatures in the whole district all presented rise trends, and the variation difference had regularity. The annual and four-season rainfalls both had large fluctuation amplitudes, following different linear variation trends. The annual rainfall overall presented wavy decrease trends. The spatial difference of rainfall variation was significant. The rainfalls in the whole district all presented decrease trends. The decrease amplitude presented low-high-low pattern from the northeast to the southwest. The potential evaporation capacity over the whole district was the highest in the 1960s, and decreased ever since instead of increasing with the temperature. The potential evaporation capacities of each season also presented decline trends. Except in Fengning and Yuxian, the evaporation capacities of other stations in the whole district all presented decline trends. The relative humidity slightly decreased as time, with the exception of Chengde, Qinhuangdao and Nangong. The sunshine hours had a clear decrease trends. [Conclusion] The research provided scientific basis for realizing regional sustainable development, improving ecological environment and people’s life quality.

ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE CHINA ANOMALOUS CLIMATE VARIATION AND ENSO CYCLE ON THE QUASI-FOUR-YEAR SCALE

The relationship between the ENSO and abnormal variation of precipitation and temperature in China is investigated based on the monthly data. Firstly, interannual variability of precipitation and temperature are discussed in different sub-areas using Rotational EOF (REOF). Then, the variation of precipitation and temperature in different phases of ENSO cycle is each investigated with Complex Singular Value Decomposition (CSVD). Results show that, during the period of El Nio, precipitation in the eastern China, especially in the northeastern China and Yangtze River valley, is much more than normal and is apt to flood. Precipitation in northern China and Huanghe River valley, especially in the middle reach of Huanghe River, is less than normal and is apt to be less. Precipitation in the Yangtze River valley is closely related to the SSTA in the central and eastern tropical Pacific on the QFO scale, and the precipitation variation lags behind SSTA by about 3 months. For the variation of surface temperature, during the period of El Nio, it is usually colder than normal in northeastern China, and in other regions, especially in the region of Great Bend of the Yellow River and southwestern China, is warmer than normal. The temperature in northeast China is closely associated with SSTA in eastern Pacific on the QFO scale and the surface temperature variation in the northeast China lags behind that of SSTA about 2 months.

Impact of climate variation on fog in China

Using foggy days and mean temperature and relative humidity data of 602 stations from January to December in the period 1961-2003 in China, the relationship between variations of foggy days and temperature and its possible reason for the 43 years were analyzed by regression, correlation and contrastive analysis methods. The results show that the higher （lower） the mean temperature and the lower （higher） the relative humidity correspond to less （more） foggy days, the relationship is the best in the western, northern and eastern Sichuan, Yunnan-Guizhon Plateau, and southeast highland in China. This induces a decrease in relative humidity when the climate becomes warmer, and eventually brings about a decrease in foggy days in China.

Vegetation and Climate Variations at Taibai, Qinling Mountains in Central China for the Last 3 500 cal BP

Pollen records of two swamp sections, located at Taibai Mountain, the highest peak in the Qinling Mountains of central China, show variations of vegetation and climate for the last 3 500 cal BP. The pollen assemblage at the Foyechi and Sanqingchi sections and the surface soil pollen allowed us to reconstruct a high-altitude vegetation history at Taibai Mountain for the first time. The data indicated that there was a cold-dry climate interval between 3 500 and 3 080 cal BP and a relatively warm and wet period compared with the present from 3 080 to 1 860 cal BE The warmest period in the late Holocene on Taibai Mountain was from 1 430 to 730 cal BP, with an approximate 2 ~C increase in mean annual temperature compared with today. There was a relatively cool-dry climate interval from 730 to 310 cal BE After 310 cal BE a mountain tundra vegetation developed again and the position of the modern tree line was established.

IMPACT OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS ON SOC-ECONOMY IN CHINA

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Diurnal and Seasonal Variations of CO2Fluxes and Their Climate Controlling Factors for a Subtropical Forest in Ningxiang

In this study, the diurnal and seasonal variations of CO2 fluxes in a subtropical mixed evergreen forest in Ningxiang of Hunan Province, part of the East Asian monsoon region, were quantified for the first time. The fluxes were based on eddy covariance measurements from a newly initiated flux tower. The relationship between the CO2 fluxes and climate factors was also analyzed. The results showed that the target ecosystem appeared to be a clear carbon sink in 2013, with integrated net ecosystem CO2exchange（NEE）, ecosystem respiration（RE）, and gross ecosystem productivity（GEP） of-428.8, 1534.8 and1963.6 g C m^-2yr^-1, respectively. The net carbon uptake（i.e. the-NEE）, RE and GEP showed obvious seasonal variability,and were lower in winter and under drought conditions and higher in the growing season. The minimum NEE occurred on12 June（-7.4 g C m^-2d^-1）, due mainly to strong radiation, adequate moisture, and moderate temperature; while a very low net CO2 uptake occurred in August（9 g C m^-2month^-1）, attributable to extreme summer drought. In addition, the NEE and GEP showed obvious diurnal variability that changed with the seasons. In winter, solar radiation and temperature were the main controlling factors for GEP, while the soil water content and vapor pressure deficit were the controlling factors in summer. Furthermore, the daytime NEE was mainly limited by the water-stress effect under dry and warm atmospheric conditions, rather than by the direct temperature-stress effect.

Analysis on the Change Characteristics of Climate in Suizhong in Recent 55 Years

[Objective] The research aimed to study the variation characteristics of climate in Suizhong in recent 55 years.[Method] Based on the meteorological observation data (temperature,sunshine,precipitation,etc.) in Suizhong County during 1956-2010,the variation trend,the time and stability which stably passed one threshold of meteorological factors were analyzed by using the linear regression,five-day sliding average and deviation coefficient.The change characteristics of climate in Suizhong County in recent 55 years were grasped.[Result] In recent 55 years,the temperature in Suizhong presented the rise trend.In recent 25 years (1986-2010),the temperature rise was obvious.The rise ranges of winter average temperature and average minimum temperature were big.Moreover,the variation range was big,and the stability was bad.The variation trends of frost-free period and ≥10 ℃ accumulated temperature were basically consistent with that of temperature.The sunshine hours overall presented the decline trend,which wasn’t obvious.It presented the rise trend in winter half year and the decline trend in summer half year.The decline trend in summer was obvious.The rainfall overall presented the decline trend.Spring precipitation presented the rise trend.The precipitation in summer and autumn presented the decline trend.The variation range of precipitation in winter was big,and the stability was bad.The variation range of precipitation in summer was small,and the stability was good.[Conclusion] The research provided the basis for management department understanding and grasping the variation characteristics of local climate,disaster prevention and reduction.

Preliminary Analysis of Climatic Variation during the Last 39 Years in China

The preliminary analysis of climatic variation in China during the last 39 years has been made in this paper. The results show that although the global climate is getting warmer, some parts of China are cooling. The warming only occurs in Northeast, North and the west part of Northwest China while the areas between about 35°N and Nanling Mountain, east of the Tibetan Plateau in China are getting cooler. The cooling centers are located in Sichuan, the south part of Shaanxi and the north part of Yunnan respectively. According to the theory of greenhouse effect, there are much precipitation at low and high latitudes and less precipitation in middle latitude. However, the precipitation in the most parts of China has been decreased, especially in North and Northwest China.

Global sea level variations from altimetry,GRACE and Argo data over 2005-2014

Total sea level variations（SLVs） are caused by two major components：steric variations due to thermal expansion of seawater,and mass-induced variations due to mass exchange between ocean and land.In this study,the global SLV and its steric and mass components were estimated by satellite altimetry,Argo float data and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） data over 2005-2014.Space gravimetry observations from GRACE suggested that two-thirds of the global mean sea level rise rate observed by altimetry（i.e.,3.1 ± 0.3 mm/a from 2005 to 2014） could be explained by an increase in ocean mass.Furthermore,the global mean sea level was observed to drop significantly during the2010/2011 La Nina event,which may be attributed to the decline of ocean mass and steric SLV.Since early 2011,the global mean sea level began to rise rapidly,which was attributed to an increase in ocean mass.The findings in this study suggested that the global mean sea-level budget was closed from 2005 to 2014 based on altimetry,GRACE,and Argo data.

Water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin estimated from GRACE and satellite altimetry

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） satellite mission provides a unique opportunity to quantitatively study terrestrial water storage（TWS） variations. In this paper,the terrestrial water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin are recovered from the GRACE gravity data from January 2003 to March 2014 and compared with the Global Land Data Assimilation System（GLDAS） hydrological models and satellite altimetry. Furthermore, the impact of soil moisture content from GLDAS and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission（TRMM） on TWS variations are investigated. Our results indicate that the TWS variations from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry have a general consistency. The TWS trends in the Poyang Lake Basin determined from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry are increasing at 0.0141 km^3/a, 0.0328 km^3/a and 0.0238 km^3/a,respectively during the investigated time period. The TWS is governed mainly by the soil moisture content and dominated primarily by the precipitation but also modulated by the flood season of the Yangtze River as well as the lake and river exchange water.

A climatic variation observed in permafrost temperature at Kangiqsualujjuaq in northern Quebec

Permafrost temperatures from the surface down to about 9 m from 3 boreholes distributed around Kangiqsualujjuaq village on the coast of Hudson Strait were recorded and analyzed for the period 1989 1998. The results indicate that the permafrost is getting warm along the southern shore of Hudson Strait from 1993 to 1998 though it became cooling for the past 40 a or more. The observed trend in the order of 0.098℃/a at the 9 m depth is consistent with the long term regional warming observed in air temperatures. It also coincides with that all the global circulation models predict an enhanced warming in polar regions associated with the increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Monthly gravity field recovery from GRACE orbits and K-band measurements using variational equations approach

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） mission can significantly improve our knowledge of the temporal variability of the Earth＇s gravity field.We obtained monthly gravity field solutions based on variational equations approach from GPS-derived positions of GRACE satellites and K-band range-rate measurements.The impact of different fixed data weighting ratios in temporal gravity field recovery while combining the two types of data was investigated for the purpose of deriving the best combined solution.The monthly gravity field solution obtained through above procedures was named as the Institute of Geodesy and Geophysics（IGG） temporal gravity field models.IGG temporal gravity field models were compared with GRACE Release05（RL05） products in following aspects：（i） the trend of the mass anomaly in China and its nearby regions within 2005-2010; （ii） the root mean squares of the global mass anomaly during 2005-2010; （iii） time-series changes in the mean water storage in the region of the Amazon Basin and the Sahara Desert between 2005 and 2010.The results showed that IGG solutions were almost consistent with GRACE RL05 products in above aspects（i）-（iii）.Changes in the annual amplitude of mean water storage in the Amazon Basin were 14.7 ± 1.2 cm for IGG,17.1 ± 1.3 cm for the Centre for Space Research（CSR）,16.4 ± 0.9 cm for the GeoForschungsZentrum（GFZ） and 16.9 ± 1.2 cm for the Jet Propulsion Laboratory（JPL） in terms of equivalent water height（EWH）,respectively.The root mean squares of the mean mass anomaly in Sahara were 1.2 cm,0.9 cm,0.9 cm and 1.2 cm for temporal gravity field models of IGG,CSR,GFZ and JPL,respectively.Comparison suggested that IGG temporal gravity field solutions were at the same accuracy level with the latest temporal gravity field solutions published by CSR,GFZ and JPL.

Dryland Expansion in Northern China from 1948 to 2008

This study examines the expansion of drylands and regional climate change in northern China by analyzing the variations in aridity index （AI）, surface air temperature （SAT）, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration （PET） from 1948 to 2008. It is found that the drylands of northern China have expanded remarkably in the last 61 years. The area of drylands of the last 15 years （1994--2008） is 0.65 × 106 km2 （12%） larger than that in the period 1948-62. The boundary of drylands has extended eastward over Northeast China by about 2 °of longitude and by about 1° of latitude to the south along the middle- to-lower reaches of the Yellow River. A zonal band of expansion of semi-arid regions has occurred, stretching from western Heilongjiang Province to southern Gansu Province, while shifts to the east of semi-arid regions in dry subhumid regions have also occurred. Results show that the aridity trend of drylands in northern China is highly correlated with the long-term trend of precipitation and PET, and the expansion of semi-arid regions plays a dominant role in the areal extent of drylands, which is nearly 10 times larger than that in arid and subhumid regions.

The climatic and hydrological changes and environmental responses recorded in lake sediments of Xinjiang,China

Based on the analyses of environmental proxy data in lake sediments and instrumental records of Xinjiang in northwest China, the Holocene climate and hydrological variability and its environmental responses were studied in different time scales and regions. The results showed that the Holocene climate variability had obvious differences between the north and south of Xinjiang. In northern Xinjiang, the Holocene climate was dry in the early period, humid in the middle period, and then changed to dry in the late period. However, the climate transition times were not consistent in different regions. In southern Xin- jiang, although there were many different types of climate change patterns inferred from different catch- ments, the warm and wet climate was recorded in most lake sediments in the middle Holocene. According to comparisons of some millennium scale records in lake sediments, the climate was warm and dry in the past 100 years. It can be concluded the climate showed a trend of aridity in Holocene. Especially in recent 50 years, the lake area has been shrinking rapidly because of the population growth and social economic development, which brings some environmental problems. Lake level and area changes were sensitively affected by the climate variation in geological history of Xinjiang and the lake level will continue to shrink because of the drought climate and strengthened human activities.

Sustainability of Wind Energy under Changing Wind Regimes—A Case Study

A method was introduced to assess the sustainability of energy production over the lifetime (~20 y) of wind turbines. Community Earth System Model simulations were downscaled for the tourist seasons (mid-May to mid-September) of 2006 to 2012 (CESM-P1) and 2026 to 2032 (CESM-P2) to obtain a reference and projected wind-speed climatology, respectively. The wind speeds served to calculate the potential power output and capacity factors of seven turbine types. CESM-P1 wind-speed climatology, power output, and capacity factors were compared to those derived from wind speeds obtained by numerical weather forecasts for reference to known standard to wind-farm managers. Juneau, Alaska served as a virtual testbed as this region is known to experience changes in wind speeds in response to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. CESM-P2 suggested about 2% decrease for wind speeds between the speeds at cut-in and rated power, and about 8% - 10% decrease in potential wind-power output. This means that in regions of decadal climate variations, the sustainability of wind-energy production should be part of the decision-making process. The study demonstrated that using mean values of wind-speeds can provide qualitative knowledge about decreases/increases in potential energy production, but not about the magnitude. Using the total individual wind-speed data of all seasons provided the same amount of total power output than summing up the power outputs of individual seasons. The main advantage of calculating individual seasonal wind-power outputs, however, is that it theoretically permits assessment of interannual variability in power output and capacity factors. Comparison to a known standard may help stakeholders in understanding of uncertainty and interpretation of projected changes.

Summertime Atmospheric Teleconnection Pattern Associated with a Warming over the Eastern Tibetan Plateau

By using a surface air temperature index （SATI） averaged over the eastern Tibetan Plateau （TP）, investigation is conducted on the short-term climate variation associated with the interannual air warming （or cooling） over the TP in each summer month. Evidence suggests that the SATI is associated with a consistent teleconnection pattern extending from the TP to central-western Asia and southeastern Europe. Associated rainfall changes include, for a warming case, a drought in northern India in May and June, and a stronger mei-yu front in June. The latter is due to an intensified upper-level northeasterly in eastern China and a wetter and warmer condition over the eastern TP. In the East Asian regions, the time-space distributions of the correlation patterns between SATI and rainfall are more complex and exhibit large differences from month to month. Some studies have revealed a close relationship between the anomalous heating over the TP and the rainfall anomaly along the Yangtze River valley appearing in the summer on a seasonal mean time-scale, whereas in the present study, this relationship only appears in June and the signal＇s significance becomes weaker after the long-term trend in the data was excluded. Close correlations between SATI and the convection activity and SST also occur in the western Pacific in July and August： A zonally-elongated warm tone in the SST in the northwestern Pacific seems to be a passive response of the associated circulation related to a warm SATI. The SATI-associated teleconnection pattern provides a scenario consistently linking the broad summer rainfall anomalies in Europe, central-western Asia, India, and East Asia.

Ozone Depletion Identification in Stratosphere Through Faster Region-Based Convolutional Neural Network

The concept of classification through deep learning is to build a model that skillfully separates closely-related images dataset into different classes because of diminutive but continuous variations that took place in physical systems over time and effect substantially.This study has made ozone depletion identification through classification using Faster Region-Based Convolutional Neural Network(F-RCNN).The main advantage of F-RCNN is to accumulate the bounding boxes on images to differentiate the depleted and non-depleted regions.Furthermore,image classification’s primary goal is to accurately predict each minutely varied case’s targeted classes in the dataset based on ozone saturation.The permanent changes in climate are of serious concern.The leading causes beyond these destructive variations are ozone layer depletion,greenhouse gas release,deforestation,pollution,water resources contamination,and UV radiation.This research focuses on the prediction by identifying the ozone layer depletion because it causes many health issues,e.g.,skin cancer,damage to marine life,crops damage,and impacts on living being’s immune systems.We have tried to classify the ozone images dataset into two major classes,depleted and non-depleted regions,to extract the required persuading features through F-RCNN.Furthermore,CNN has been used for feature extraction in the existing literature,and those extricated diverse RoIs are passed on to the CNN for grouping purposes.It is difficult to manage and differentiate those RoIs after grouping that negatively affects the gathered results.The classification outcomes through F-RCNN approach are proficient and demonstrate that general accuracy lies between 91%to 93%in identifying climate variation through ozone concentration classification,whether the region in the image under consideration is depleted or non-depleted.Our proposed model presented 93%accuracy,and it outperforms the prevailing techniques.