Analysis on the Climate Characteristics of Relative Humidity in Recent 40 Years in Urumqi City

By using the daily average relative humidity data in Urumqi during 1961-2000,the basic climate characteristics and the variation trend of relative humidity in Urumqi in recent 40 years were analyzed.The results showed that the yearly average relative humidity in Urumqi was 57.5%.The relative humidity in winter was 77.5% which was the biggest all the year round,and the relative humidity in summer was 41.2% which was the smallest.The relative humidity in spring,summer,autumn,winter and the yearly relative humidity all displayed the increase trend.The yearly mean relative humidity had the periods of mainly 2,3-4 and quasi-7 years.The periodic oscillation of quasi-7 years was the strongest.

Response of drought to climate extremes in a semi-arid inland river basin in China

Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin River Basin(a semi-arid inland river basin)of China for the period of 2021–2100 by employing a multi-model ensemble approach based on three climate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Furthermore,a linear regression,a wavelet analysis,and the correlation analysis were conducted to explore the response of climate extremes to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Streamflow Drought Index(SDI),as well as their respective trends during the historical period from 1970 to 2020 and during the future period from 2021 to 2070.The results indicated that extreme high temperatures and extreme precipitation will further intensify under the higher forcing scenarios(SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6)in the future.The SPEI trends under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were estimated as–0.003/a,–0.004/a,and–0.008/a,respectively,indicating a drier future climate.During the historical period(1970–2020),the SPEI and SDI trends were–0.003/a and–0.016/a,respectively,with significant cycles of 15 and 22 a,and abrupt changes occurring in 1995 and 1996,respectively.The next abrupt change in the SPEI was projected to occur in the 2040s.The SPEI had a significant positive correlation with both summer days(SU)and heavy precipitation days(R10mm),while the SDI was only significantly positively correlated with R10mm.Additionally,the SPEI and SDI exhibited a strong and consistent positive correlation at a cycle of 4–6 a,indicating a robust interdependence between the two indices.These findings have important implications for policy makers,enabling them to improve water resource management of inland river basins in arid and semi-arid areas under future climate uncertainty.

Detecting Inhomogeneity in Daily Climate Series Using Wavelet Analysis

A wavelet method was applied to detect inhomogeneities in daily meteorological series, data which are being increasingly applied in studies of climate extremes. The wavelet method has been applied to a few well- established long-term daily temperature series back to the 18th century, which have been ＂homogenized＂ with conventional approaches. Various types of problems remaining in the series were revealed with the wavelet method. Their influences on analyses of change in climate extremes are discussed. The results have importance for understanding issues in conventional climate data processing and for development of improved methods of homogenization in order to improve analysis of climate extremes based on daily data.

Wavelet Analysis and Nonparametric Test for Climate Change in Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang During 1959-2006

Using wavelet analysis,regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall test,this paper analyzed time-series(1959-2006) weather data from 23 meteorological stations in an attempt to characterize the climate change in the Tarim River Basin of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,China.Major findings are as follows:1) In the 48-year study period,average annual temperature,annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity all presented nonlinear trends.2) At the 16-year time scale,all three climate indices unanimously showed a rather flat before 1964 and a detectable pickup thereafter.At the 8-year time scale,an S-shaped nonlinear and uprising trend was revealed with slight fluctuations in the entire process for all three indices.Incidentally,they all showed similar pattern of a slight increase before 1980 and a noticeable up-swing afterwards.The 4-year time scale provided a highly fluctuating pattern of periodical oscillations and spiral increases.3) Average annual relative humidity presented a negative correlation with average annual temperature and a positive correlation with annual precipitation at each time scale,which revealed a close dynamic relationship among them at the confidence level of 0.001.4) The Mann-Kendall test at the 0.05 confidence level demonstrated that the climate warming trend,as represented by the rising average annual temperature,was remarkable,but the climate wetting trend,as indicated by the rising annual precipitation and average annual relative humidity,was not obvious.

Temporal and Spatial Characteristics of Climate Changes in the Urumqi River Basin of Tianshan Mountain over 50 years

Based on the meteorological data during 1959-2008 from five representative weather stations in the Urumqi River Basin and surrounding areas,the regional characteristics of temperature and precipitation in the basin featuring multi-climatic zones were studied by means of some methods including wavelet analysis.As was shown in the results,the temperature in the whole Urumqi River Basin demonstrated a significant upward trend.The temperature increase particularly in autumn and winter made the greatest contribution to the marked ascent.The interdecadal temperature in the basin showed a tendency to decline before the period during 1970s-1980s while it was on the rise after 1990s on the whole.The most concentrated period of temperature mutations was in the late 1990s.At the same time,the precipitation also showed an escalating trend,which experienced a stage of unanimous upward trend after 1990s.The most concentrated period of precipitation mutations was in the early 1990s.

Modeling the Risks of Climate Change and Global Warming to Humans Settled in Low Elevation Coastal Zones in Louisiana, USA

This paper seeks to identify high risk areas that are prone to flooding, caused by sea level rise because of high impacts of global climate change resulting from global warming and human settlements in low-lying coastal elevation areas in Louisiana, and model and understand the ramifications of predicted sea-level rise. To accomplish these objectives, the study made use of accessible public datasets to assess the potential risk faced by residents of coastal lowlands of Southern Louisiana in the United States. Elevation data was obtained from the Louisiana Statewide Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) with resolution of 16.4 feet (5 m) distributed by Atlas. The data was downloaded from Atlas website and imported into Environmental Systems Research Institute’s (ESRI’s) ArcMap software to create a single mosaic elevation image map of the study area. After mosaicking the elevation data in ArcMap, Spatial Analyst extension software was used to classify areas with low and high elevation. Also, data was derived from United States Geological Survey (USGS) Digital Elevation Model (DEM) and absolute sea level rise data covering the period 1880 to 2015 was acquired from United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) website. In addition, population data from U.S. Census Bureau was obtained and coupled with elevation data for assessing the risks of the population residing in low lying areas. Models of population trend and cumulative sea level rise were developed using statistical methods and software were applied to reveal the national trends and local deviations from the trends. The trends of population changes with respect to sea level rise and time in years were modeled for the low land coastal parishes of Louisiana. The expected years for the populations in the study area to be at risk due to rising sea level were estimated by models. The geographic information systems (GIS) results indicate that areas of low elevation were mostly located along the coastal Parishes in the study area. Further results of the study revealed that, if the sea level continued to rise at the present rate, a population of approximately 1.8 million people in Louisiana’s coastal lands would be at risk of suffering from flooding associated with the sea level having risen to about 740 inches by 2040. The population in high risk flood zone was modeled by the following equation: y = 6.6667x - 12,864, with R squared equal to 0.9964. The rate of sea level rise was found to increase as years progressed. The slopes of models for data for time periods, 1880-2015 (entire data) and 1970-2015 were found to be, 4.2653 and 6.6667, respectively. The increase reflects impacts of climate change and land management on rate of sea level rise, respectively. A model for the variation of years with respect to cumulative sea level was developed for use in predicting the year when the cumulative sea level would equal the elevation above sea level of study area parishes. The model is given by the following equation: y = 0.1219x + 1944.1 with R square equal to 0.9995.

Synchronism of runoff response to climate change in Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang,Northwest China

The runoff in alpine river basins where the runoff is formed in nearby mountainous areas is mainly affected by temperature and precipitation. Based on observed annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff time-series datasets during 1958-2012 within the Kaidu River Basin, the synchronism of runoff response to climate change was analyzed and iden- tified by applying several classic methods, including standardization methods, Kendall＇s W test, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test, wavelet power spectrum analysis, and the rescaled range （R/S） approach. The concordance of the nonlinear trend variations of the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff was tested significantly at the 0.05 level by Kendall＇s W method. The sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with those of annual mean temperature. The periodic characteristics of annual runoff were mainly consistent with annual precipitation, having synchronous 3-year significant periods and the same 6-year, 10-year, and 38-year quasi-periodicities. While the periodic characteristics of annual runoff in the Kaidu River Basin tracked well with those of annual precipitation, the abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with the annual mean temperature, which directly drives glacier- and snow-melt processes. R/S analysis indicated that the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff will continue to increase and remain synchronously persistent in the future. This work can improve the understanding of runoff response to regional climate change to provide a viable reference in the management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin, a regional sustainable socio-economie development.

Holocene Climate Cycles in Northwest Margin of Asian Monsoon

In the mid-latitude regions of the Asian continent, Zhuye Lake is located in the northwest margin of the Asian monsoon, where the modem climate is affected by the Asian monsoon and Westerlies. In this study, we investi- gated the absolutely dated Holocene records in Zhuye Lake for detecting the Holocene climate cycles. Totally, 14 14C dates and 6 optically simulated luminescence （OSL） dates are obtained from the QTH01 and QTH02 sections. The proxies of grain-size, total organic carbon content （TOC）, C/N and 813C are used for wavelet analysis, and the results show obvious -256, -512 and -1024-year climate cycles, which are consistent with the Holocene millennial and cen- tennial scale climate cycles in the typical Asian summer monsoon domain. In different parts of the Zhuye Lake, the Holocene sediments show variable climate cycles that are affected by the lake basin topography. In the Zhuye Lake, the Holocene climate cycles are mainly correlated with the solar-related Asian summer monsoon variability and the North Atlantic ice-rafting events.

Climate Change and Its Effects on Runoff in the North of Tianshan,Xinjiang

[Objective] The aim was to study climate changes in northern Tianshan in Xinjiang and its influences on runoff. [Methed] Based on the runoff data for 54 years of Kenswatt station on Manas River and the climate date of 16 meteorological stations from 1957 to 2007 in the north of Tian- shan in Xinjiang, the climate change and temporal series of the annual runoff were studied by use of nonparametric test, wavelet analysis, R/S analysis and periodic trend superposition model. [ Result] The temperature, precipitation and annual runoff of Manas River increased significantly. The Hurst coefficients of both climate factors and the annual runoff were bigger than 0.5, which indicated that they would still keep an increasing trend. Temperature from 1957 to 1959 was low, precipitation was much, belonging to low temperature and more rain period. 1960s and 1970s were low temperature and less rain period. Temperature in 1980s was close to average value and precipitation was little. Since 1990s, it entered into high temperature and less rain period and was significant during 2000 and 2007. The temperature and precipitation changed in 1995 and 1996. Tempera- ture was＇significant in 11 and 22 years. Precipitation had 5, 8, 14 and 22 years of main cycle. The annual runoff and climate factors in Manasi River were increasing in different times. The annual runoff was related to climate factors, and temperature was closer to annual runoff than precipitation. [ Conclusion] The study provided theoretical basis for the reasonable configuration, ecological protection and agricultural production of water re- sources in north Tianshan in Xinjiang.

Climate Change and Its Impact on Ecological Environment in Western Liaoning in Recent 50 years

Based on the observation data of meteorological stations in western Liaoning from 1971 to 2020,the trend,Morlet wavelet,MK mutation and other methods were used to analyze the data.The results show that the annual average temperature of western Liaoning was 9.29℃;the annual average precipitation was 542.2 mm,and the trend change was not obvious;the temperature had obvious quasi-13-year,quasi-19-year and quasi-45-year cycles,and the precipitation had quasi-3-year,quasi-6-year,quasi-14-year and quasi-29-year cycles;there was a sudden change in temperature in 1990,and the warming was significant after the sudden change;the typical abrupt changes of precipitation occurred in 1979 and 2000,but the abrupt changes were not significant.

Climatic Analysis of Continuous Rain in Southwest of Shandong

The continuous rain data from 1961 to 2007 in Heze city was analyzed in this paper.The results showed that continuous rain increased from north to south.Continuous rain processes took place most frequently in summer,next in autumn,and the least in winter.Using wavelet to analyze the sequence of seasonal and annual continuous rain,it had a 5 years cycle oscillation at 2Y(year) level and a 20 years cycle oscillation at 10Y level.An abrupt climate change of continuous rain took place in 1986.Continuous rain was in a more period from 2001 to 2010 and would decrease gradually within the period.

Wavelet analysis of quasi-3-year temperature oscillations in China in last 50 years, and predicted changes in the next 20 years

The wavelet analysis method is used to analyze the annual and winter temperature data of 98 observation stations in China in eight climate zones during the last 50 years （1961-2009）. The periodicities of temperature changes are investigated, and the possible temperature change trends in China in the next 20 years （2012-2029） are also predicted. Our results show that in the inter-annual temperature variability there are pervasive quasi-3- to quasi-4-year cycles, and these cycle changes are relatively steady. The periodic characteristics of the annual temperature changes are clearly different between northern and southern China, and our period superimposition extrapolation shows that both annual and winter temperatures in China will continue to increase in the next 20 years, more so in northern China and in the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau （QXP） than in the southern region, except in the southwest. If temperatures follow historic increasing linear trends, the overall temper- ature is expected to increase by 1℃ between 2010 and 2029.

Influence of river-lake isolation on the water level variations of Caizi Lake, lower reach of the Yangtze River

In order to explore the water level variations of Caizi Lake under river-lake isolation,the monthly water level of the Chefuling station in Caizi Lake from 1989 to 2018 and the daily water level,rainfall and flow of local hydrological stations in 2018 were analyzed by using the Mann-Kendall trend test and wavelet analysis.Results showed that the difference of the average water level of Caizi Lake between the flood and dry seasons was 3.34 m,with a multi-year average water level of 10.42 m above sea level.The first and second main periods of the water level of Caizi Lake were 128 and 18 months,respectively,with 4 and 29"up-down"cycles,respectively.From 2018,the next 3-4 years were likely to be the low water level period.The water level of Caizi Lake was significantly correlated with that of the Anqing hydrological station of the Yangtze River(r=0.824,P<0.01).In addition,the current hydrological staging of Caizi Lake was about 30 days behind than before the sluice was built.Under the dual influences of the river-lake isolation and the Yangtze-to-Huaihe Water Diversion Project(YHWD),the hydrological regime change of Caizi Lake and its eco-environmental effect needed long-term monitoring and research.

SIGNAL DETECTION OF GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE AND EXTERNAL FORCING FACTORS

In this paper,we displayed one-dimensional climate signals,such as global temperature variation,Southern Oscillation Index and variation of external forcing factors,on a two- dimensional time-scale plane using compactly supported wavelet decomposition.Using the lag- correlation analysis method,and interpretative variance analysis method,and phase comparison method to the wavelet analysis result,we not only gained the variation on different scales to the global temperature and El Nino signals,the location of the jump point and intrinsic scale of these series,but also indicated the magnitude,extent and time of the effect of external forcing factors on them.We also put forward reasonable explanation to the main variation of recent 140 years.

Spatial and Temporal Variability of Drought Patterns over the Continental United States from Observations and Regional Climate Models

The aim of this study is to analyze the spatial and temporal structure of drought over the continental United States(CONUS) and their teleconnection at different timescales from observations and climate models. We use the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI) at 12-and 24-month timescales as the drought index. Spatial patterns of drought regimes are delineated by using the principal component analysis(PCA) while the temporal characteristics of the variability of each drought pattern and teleconnection with climate indices are analyzed by using the wavelet analysis. Wavelet coherence of the drought pattern and four climate indices: El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO), and North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO) are analyzed. The results show that major drought patterns are located over the Northwest, South, Upper Midwest, and East regions. The spatial pattern of the drought regimes is similar for the 12-and 24-month timescale drought. ENSO influences the drought over West and South at decadal timescales throughout the study period(1950–2015) while intermittent significant coherence is observed at interannual timescale. The coherence of NAO and PDO with SPEI-12 is decreased during recent decades. Generally, regional climate model(RCM)-simulated drought patterns are more localized in a smaller area over the region compared to the spatial extent of observed drought patterns. Power spectra of seasonal to interannual variability(2–5-yr period) of all four drought patterns from RCM simulations are similar to those from the observations. However, at larger periodicities(decadal variations)among-RCM spread increases with increasing periods.

ANALYSIS OF THE TRENDS OF THUNDERSTORMS IN 1951-2007 IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

Based on the 1951-2007 thunderstorms in Jiangsu,a study is conducted for their climate trends,periodicity,spatiotemporal patterns,and the distributions of the first and last days of the thunderstorms at different guarantee rates (GRs) using climate tendency rate,wavelet analysis,and GR for diagnosis.Results suggest that the inter-annual number of thunderstorm days (TSDs) exhibits a decreasing trend in this province.The trend is displayed mainly in the decreasing TSD number in summer and autumn except in spring,when the variation is not significant in the study period.In this province,the TSD number declines by ～2 days per 10 years.On an inter-annual basis,the pronounced positive departures of the number take place chiefly in the early 1960s,the late 1960s to the early-mid-1970s,the late 1980s,and the late 1990s compared with the negative anomalies dominant in the late 1970s to the mid-1980s,the mid-to-late-1990s,and the late 1990s to 2007.There are vast differences in the initial and ending days at diverse GRs in different areas of the province.At 50% GR,the earliest (last) days occur from mid-March to early April (early to late September) while at 80% GR,the initial (last) days are from late March to early May (early to late October).For the distribution of periods,the periods >8-10 years are relatively stable for the entire province.Based on 1951-2007 period analysis,the region north (south) of the Huaihe River experiences TSDs less (more) than normal days in recent years.

气候政策不确定性与传统国际能源价格的影响关系研究——基于TVP-VAR模型和小波相干性分析

基于2010年1月到2022年12月3种国际代表性传统能源煤炭、原油和天然气期货价格,以及反映气候转型风险的气候政策不确定性指数月度数据,运用TVP-VAR模型和小波相干性分析法研究了气候政策不确定性与3种传统国际能源产品价格之间的影响关系。结果表明:(1)3种代表性能源品价格与气候政策不确定性指数之间存在着相互影响的时变关系,并呈现出显著的正、负交替的差异性特征,且原油和天然气分别与另两种能源品在不同滞后期和不同时点上的表现存在差异;(2)能源品价格与气候政策不确定性指数之间相互的冲击效果均在短期和中期效果不明显,在长期效果最为明显,并且在重要气候事件节点上,冲击效果更加明显;(3)能源品价格与气候政策不确定性指数在不同时域上,中期和后期较为明显;在不同频域内,低频和中频区相干性较为明显,总体表现为能源品价格引导气候政策不确定性指数变化。

基于小波分析和BP神经网络的农业机械化作业水平预测

为提高我国农业机械化作业水平的预测精度,针对农业机械化作业水平非线性和非平稳性的特点,基于小波分析和BP神经网络的基本原理,建立小波-BP神经网络的预测模型。首先,系统地分析并提取农业机械化作业水平主要影响因素,采用主成分分析的方法进行降维处理;然后,对我国农业机械化作业水平时间序列和影响因素主成分序列进行小波分解获取低频分量和高频分量,进而对低频分量与高频分量分别建立BP神经网络预测模型;最后,将预测得到的低频分量和高频分量通过线性叠加得到最终预测结果。以我国农业机械化作业水平预测为例对该方法进行验证,结果表明:小波-BP神经网络预测模型具有较好的预测效果,模型评价指标平均相对误差、均方根误差、希尔不等系数、一致性指标、有效系数和优秀率分别为0.44%、0.293、0.002 4、0.90、0.972 7和100%,各评价指标均优于其他模型。

基于深度学习提取时空信息的流域内库水位预测模型研究

为了解决流域连通水库增多,库水位影响因素复杂且具有非平稳性,难以直接通过水文计算预测的问题,对流域水文站点日降雨序列进行分析,首先将时间序列经小波变换去噪,在此基础上采用最大信息系数(MIC)相关性分析筛选与日水位序列相关性,增加了输入时序降雨与预测水位相关的信息密度,并提出将强相关性序列输入引入Attention机制的长短期记忆(LSTM)预测模型,提高LSTM神经网络选择和提取序列特征的能力。以福建某流域站点实测日降雨序列为例进行试验,结果表明该方法的均方预测误差仅为0.1908,相比LSTM模型有更高的预测精度,为水库水情调度及防洪减灾管理提供了决策依据。

跨层次视角下信息安全氛围对员工信息安全制度遵守意愿的影响作用

员工安全遵守行为已成为保护企业信息资产安全的重要保障。侧重人因因素,讨论如何通过有效方法来规范和引导员工遵守信息安全制度。基于保护动机理论(protection motivation theory,PMT)和社会认知理论,采用跨层次分析方法,以员工信息安全制度遵守意愿为因变量,信息安全氛围为组织层面变量,感知严重性、感知易感性、反应效能和自我效能为个体层面变量构建研究模型。借鉴成熟量表设计问卷,发放问卷并获取有效数据,应用SPSS 26.0软件对研究模型进行假设验证。实证结果表明:感知严重性、感知易感性、反应效能和自我效能均正向影响员工信息安全制度遵守意愿;信息安全氛围跨层次既能直接影响员工信息安全制度遵守意愿,又可通过个体层面变量对结果变量产生影响作用。为强化企业安全管理提供一定的理论支撑。