Numerical Simulations of Anomalies of Precipitation and Surface Air Temperature in China in the Summer of 1997

The anomalies of precipitation and surface air temperature in the summer (June to August) of 1997 are simulated by use of a global spectral numerical climate model (L9R15) developed in Australia originally and modified in LASG. The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of the El Nino event that happened in that year on the anomalies. The results show that the 1997 El Nino event does have a lot of influences on the climatic anomaly in that summer, however, the effect is not the same as pointed out by statistical studies. Therefore, the effects of the El Nino events are of uncertainties. The effects of the El Nino events on the regional climate in China might be different due to the different SSTA distributions over the western and northwestern Pacific in the El Nino years. It is likely more important to pay attention to the SSTA distributive patterns and values in the Chinese adjacent oceans. Besides the El Nino event there might be other factors such as the South Asia high at the 100 hPa level which has more direct impact on the climatic anomaly in China and can be taken as another strong signal of the climatic change in the atmosphere. Key words Climatic anomalies - Numerical modelling - Effect of El Nino event Sponsored by the Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China: “ Analyses and Mechanism Study of the Regional Climatic Change in China” under Grant No. 49735170.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Variations and Climate Changes Worldwide

This investigation aims to study the El-Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in these three phases: El Niño, La Niña, and neutral. Warm and cold events relate to the Spring/Summer seasons. This paper will search for connections between the ENSO events and climate anomalies worldwide. There is some speculation that those events would be necessary for the climate anomalies observed worldwide. After analyzing the data from the reports to the ENSO, it shows almost periodicity from 1950-2023. We emphasized the occurrence of El Niño two years, when it was most prominent, and the climate anomalies (following NOAA maps), 2015 and 2023. The results indicated that the observed climate anomalies couldn’t be linked to the abnormal events observed. The worldwide temperatures in those years enhanced mostly in 2023. It shows an abnormal behavior compared with all the years scrutinized and analyzed since the records began. Therefore, there must be unknown factors beyond ENSO that rule the worldwide temperatures and the climate anomalies observed.

The 1997/ 98 ENSO Cycle and Its Impact on Summer Climate Anomalies in East Asia

The observed data of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and the sea temperature (ST) in the sub-layer of the equatorial Pacific, the NCEP/ NCAR reanalysis data and the data set of daily precipitation in China are used to analyze the characteristics of the 1997 / 98 ENSO cycle and its impact on summer climate anomalies in East Asia. The results show that the 1997/98 ENSO cycle, the strongest one in the 20th century, might be characterized by rapid development and decay and eastward propagation from the West Pacific warm pool. Influenced by the ENSO cycle, in 1997, the serious drought and hot summer occurred in North China, and in the summer of 1998, the severe floods occurred in the Yangtze River valley, especially in the Dongting Lake and Boyang Lake valleys, South Korea and Japan. The analysis also shows that: influenced by the 1997/98 ENSO cycle, the water vapor transportation by the Asian monsoon in the summer of 1997 was very different from that in the summer of 1998. In the summer of 1997, the water vapor transportation by the Asian summer monsoon was weak in North China and the northern part of the Korea Peninsula. Thus, it caused the drought and hot summer in North China. However, in the summer of 1998, the sea temperature in the sub-layer of the West Pacific warm pool dropped, the western Pacific subtropical high shifted southward. Thus, a large amount of water vapor was transported from the Bay of Bengal, the South China Sea and the tropical western Pacific into the Yangtze River valley of China, South Korea and Japan, and the severe flood occurred there. Key words ENSO cycle - Climate anomaly - Monsoon - Drought and flood This study was supported by the National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences under Grant No. G1998040900(I).

Atmospheric Anomalies Related to Interdecadal Variability of SST in the North Pacific

Anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are studied corresponding to the two basic interdecadal variation modes of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Pacific, namely, the 25-35-year mode and the 7-10-year mode. Results clearly indicate that corresponding to the positive and negative phases of the interdecadal modes of SST anomaly (SSTA) in the North Pacific, the anomalous patterns of the atmospheric circulation and climate are approximately out of phase, fully illustrating the important role of the interdecadal modes of SST. Since the two interdecadal modes of SSTA in the North Pacific have similar horizontal structures, their impacts on the atmospheric circulation and climate are also analogous. The impact of the interdecadal modes of the North Pacific SST on the atmospheric circulation is barotropic at middle latitudes and baroclinic in tropical regions.

Circulation Indices of the Aleutian Low Pressure System:Definitions and Relationships to Climate Anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

In this study, a group of indices were defined regarding intensity （P）, area （S） and central position （λc, Фc） of the Aleutian low （AL） in the Northern Hemisphere in winter, using seasonal and monthly mean height field at 1000-hPa. These indices were calculated over 60 winter seasons from 1948/1949 to 2007/2008 using reanalysis data. Climatic and anomalous characteristics of the AL were analyzed based on these indices and relationships between the AL, and general circulations were explored using correlations between indicesP, λc, and Pacific SST, as well as Northern Hemisphere temperature and precipitation. The main results are these： （1） AL is the strongest in January, when the center shifts to the south and west of its climatological position, and it is the weakest in December when the center shifts to the north and east. （2） AL intensity （P） is negatively correlated with its longitude （λc）： a deeper low occurs toward the east and a shallower low occurs toward the west. On a decadal scale, the AL has been persistently strong and has shifted eastward since the 1970s, but reversal signs have been observed in recent years. （3） The AL is stronger and is located toward the east during strong E1 Nifio winters and vice versa during strong La Nifia years; this tendency is particularly evident after 1975. The AL is also strongly correlated with SST in the North Pacific. It intensifies and moves eastward with negative SST anomalies, and it weakens and moves westward with positive SST anomalies. （4） Maps of significance correlation between AL intensity and Northern Hemisphere temperature and rainfall resemble the PNA teleconnection pattern in mid-latitudes in the North Pacific and across North America. The AL and the Mongolian High are two permanent atmospheric pressure systems adjacent to each other during boreal winter over the middle and high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere, but their relationships with the E1 Nifio/La Nifia events and with temperature and precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere are significantly different.

Retrieving Multi-Scale Climatic Variations from High Dimensional Time-Series MODIS Green Vegetation Cover in a Tropical/Subtropical Mountainous Island

There are knowledge gaps in our understanding of vegetation responses to multi-scale climate-related variables in tropical/subtropical mountainous islands in the Asia-Pacific region.Therefore, this study investigated inter-annual vegetation dynamics and regular/irregular climate patterns in Taiwan. We applied principal component analysis(PCA) on 11 years(2001~2011) of highdimensional monthly photosynthetically active vegetation cover(PV) derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) and investigated the relationships between spatiotemporal patterns of the eigenvectors and loadings of each component through time and multi-scale climaterelated variations. Results showed that the first five components contributed to 96.4% of the total variance. The first component(PC1, explaining 94.5%of variance) loadings, as expected, were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV(r =0.94), which was mainly governed by regional climate The temporal loadings of PC2 and PC3(0.8% and0.6% of variance, respectively) were significantly correlated with the temporal dynamics of the PV of forests(r = 0.72) and the farmlands(r = 0.80),respectively. The low-order components(PC4 and PC5, 0.3% and 0.2% of variance, respectively) were closely related to the occurrence of drought(r = 0.49)and to irregular ENSO associated climate anomalies(r =-0.54), respectively. Pronounced correlations were also observed between PC5 and the Southern Oscillation Index(SOI) with one to three months of time lags(r =-0.35 ^-0.43, respectively), revealing biophysical memory effects on the time-series pattern of the vegetation through ENSO-related rainfall patterns. Our findings reveal that the sensitivity of the ecosystems in this tropical/subtropical mountainous island may not only be regulated by regional climate and human activities but also be susceptible to largescale climate anomalies which are crucial and comparable to previous large scale analyses. This study demonstrates that PCA can be an effective tool for analyzing seasonal and inter-annual variability of vegetation dynamics across this tropical/subtropical mountainous islandin the Pacific Ocean, which provides an opportunity to forecast the responses and feedbacks of terrestrial environments to future climate scenarios.

INTERANNUAL VARIATION IN HEAT CONTENT OF THE WESTERN PACIFIC WARM POOL AND ITS EFFECT ON EASTERN ASIAN CLIMATE ANOMALIES

Using the 1980-2010 winter GODAS oceanic assimilations, study is conducted of the winter heat content(HC) established in the subsurface layer(5 to 366 m in depth) over the western Pacific warm pool(WP), followed by investigating the HC spatiotemporal characteristics, persistence and the impacts on the climate anomalies of neighboring regions. Results are as follows: 1) the pattern of integral consistency is uncovered by the leading EOF1(PC1) mode of HC interannual variability, the year-to-year fluctuation of the time coefficients being well indicative of the interannual anomaly of the WP winter subsurface-layer thermal regime. The HC variation is bound up with El Ni觡o-Southern Oscillation, keeping pronounced autocorrelation during the following two seasons and more, with the persistence being more stable in comparison to sea surface temperature anomaly in the equatorial middle eastern Pacific; 2) the winter HC anomalies produce lasting effect on the WP thermal state in the following spring and summer and corresponding changes in the warm water volume lead to the meridional transport and vertical exchange of warm water, which exerts greater impacts upon the sea surface temperature/heat flux over the warm pool per se and neighboring regions, especially in the Philippine Sea during the posterior spring and summer; 3) the increase in the winter HC corresponds to the spring outgoing longwave radiation(OLR) decrease and richer precipitation over the waters east to the Philippine Sea and the resultant convective heating anomalies are responsible for the rise of geopotential isobaric surfaces over tropical and subtropical western North Pacific, thereby producing effect on the western Pacific subtropical high(anomaly). Subsequently, the sea-surface heat flux exchange is intensified in the warm pool, a robust anomalous cyclone shows up at lower levels, air-sea interactions are enhanced and abnormal convective heating occurs, together making the winter HC anomalies even more closely associated with the variation in the summer subtropical high. As a result, the WP winter HC can be used as an effective predictor of the variation in spring/summer western Pacific subtropical high and the strength of summer monsoon over the northwestern Pacific.

Global Oceanic Climate Anomalies in 1980's

The climate in the 1980′s is characterized by the appearance of two strong ENSO events and by the warmest decade in global mean temperature. Whether there is a linkage between ENSO and global warming ? This paper shows the climate anomaly patterns over the global ocean in the 1980′s and their comparison with that of ENSO composite mode and that simulated by 2×CO 2 , indicating the role of super ENSO in the establishment of new climate regime in the 1980′s.

POSSIBLE CONTRIBUTION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE TO SHORT-TERM CLIMATE ANOMALIES IN EAST ASIA VIA SNOW COVER ON THE TIBETAN PLATEAU

Snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau(TP) has been shown to be essential for the East Asian summer monsoon.In this paper, we demonstrate that tropical cyclone(TC) 04B(1999) in the northern Indian Ocean, which made landfall during the autumn of 1999, may have contributed to climate anomalies over East Asia during the following spring and summer by increasing snow cover on the TP. Observations indicate that snow cover on the TP increased markedly after TC 04B(1999) made landfall in October of 1999. Sensitivity experiments, in which the TC was removed from a numerical model simulation of the initial field, verified that TC 04B(1999) affected the distribution as well as increased the amount of snow on the TP. In addition, the short-term numerical modeling of the climate over the region showed that the positive snow cover anomaly induced negative surface temperature, negative sensible heat flux, positive latent heat flux, and positive soil temperature anomalies over the central and southern TP during the following spring and summer. These climate anomalies over the TP were associated with positive(negative) summer precipitation anomalies over the Yangtze River valley(along the southeastern coast of China).

Climate anomalies in the southern high latitudes associated with the Subtropical Dipole Mode

Climate anomalies in the southern high latitude associated with the Subtropical Dipole Mode (SDM) are investigated using a 23-year database consisting of SLP (sea level pressure), surface air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temperature (SST). The analysis depicts, for the first time, the spatial variability in the relationship of the above variables with the Subtropical Dipole Mode Index (SDI). It suggests that the SDM signal exists in the southern high latitudes and the correlation fields exhibit a wavenumber-3 pattern around the circumpolar Southern Ocean. Lead-lag correlation analysis used to the SLP, SAT, and SST anomalies with the SDI time series at the positive and negative correlation extremes shows that the southern-high-latitude climate responses to SDM almost instantaneously proposing the connection is by atmospheric and not by oceanic propagation.

On Multi-Timescale Variability of Temperature in China in Modulated Annual Cycle Reference Frame

The traditional anomaly （TA） reference frame and its corresponding anomaly for a given data span changes with the extension of data length. In this study, the modulated annual cycle （MAC）, instead of the widely used climatological mean annual cycle, is used as an alternative reference frame for computing climate anomalies to study the multi-timescale variability of surface air temperature （SAT） in China based on homogenized daily data from 1952 to 2004. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） method is used to separate daily SAT into a high frequency component, a MAC component, an interannual component, and a decadal-to-trend component. The results show that the EEMD method can reflect historical events reasonably well, indicating its adaptive and temporally local characteristics. It is shown that MAC is a temporally local reference frame and will not be altered over a particular time span by an exten-sion of data length, thereby making it easier for physical interpretation. In the MAC reference frame, the low frequency component is found more suitable for studying the interannual to longer timescale variability （ILV） than a 13-month window running mean, which does not exclude the annual cycle. It is also better than other traditional versions （annual or summer or winter mean） of ILV, which contains a portion of the annual cycle. The analysis reveals that the variability of the annual cycle could be as large as the magnitude of interannual variability. The possible physical causes of different timescale variability of SAT in China are further discussed.

Arctic Oscillation and Antarctic Oscillation in Internal Atmospheric Variability with an Ensemble AGCM Simulation

In this study, we investigated the features of Arctic Oscillation （AO） and Antarctic Oscillation （AAO）, that is, the annular modes in the extratropics, in the internal atmospheric variability attained through an ensemble of integrations by an atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） forced with the global observed SSTs. We focused on the interannual variability of AO/AAO, which is dominated by internal atmospheric variability. In comparison with previous observed results, the AO/AAO in internal atmospheric variability bear some similar characteristics, but exhibit a much clearer spatial structure： significant correlation between the North Pacific and North Atlantic centers of action, much stronger and more significant associated precipitation anomalies, and the meridional displacement of upper-tropospheric westerly jet streams in the Northern/Southern Hemisphere. In addition, we examined the relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation （NAO）/AO and East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. It has been shown that in the internal atmospheric variability, the EAWM variation is significantly related to the NAO through upper-tropospheric atmospheric teleconnection patterns.

Relationship between SSTA in the northwestern Pacific and winter climate anomaly in China

The relationship between sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in the domain from the northwest of the Pacific to China seas (NWP-CS) and climate (precipitation and surface temperature) anomaly in winters over east of Chinese Mainland (ECM) are investigated with composite analysis. The results suggest that (1) SSTA in NWP-CS usually appears as 'seesaw' pattern, i.e., sign of SSTA in the northwest of the Philippines is positive (negative) while in the southeast it is negative (positive), defined as SSTA 'seesaw' positive (negative) pattern. When SSTA 'seesaw' positive (negative) pattern appears, the surface temperature in ECM is higher (lower) than the normal winters but the precipitation anomaly is not distinct ; (2) there are two anomalous anticyclones (cyclones) locating in the northwest Pacific and east of the Philippines at 850 hPa level and an anomalous anti-Hadley (Hadley) circulation, which descends (ascends) south of 18oN, ascends (descends) north of 18oN; (3) heat flux anomaly from ocean into atmosphere is weaker (stronger) in the northwest of the Philippines but stronger (weaker) in the southeast of the Philippines than the normal winters, because the weaker (stronger) northerly prevails in the northwest of the Philippines and stronger (weaker) northeaster in the southeast of the Philippines induced by anomalous anticyclones (cyclones).

Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia

Global warming and climate change is one of the most extensively researched and discussed topical issues affecting the environment.Although there are enough historical evidence to support the theory that climate change is a natural phenomenon,many research scientists are widely in agreement that the increase in temperature in the 20 th century is anthropologically related.The associated effects are the variability of rainfall and cyclonic patterns that are being observed globally.In Southeast Asia the link between global warming and the seasonal atmospheric flow during the monsoon seasons shows varying degree of fuzziness.This study investigates the impact of climate change on the seasonality of monsoon Asia and its effect on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia.The comparison of decadal variation of precipitation and temperature anomalies before the 1970 s found general increases which were mostly varying.But beyond the 1970 s,global precipitation anomalous showed increases that almost corresponded with increases in global temperature anomalies for the same period.There are frequent changes and a shift westward of the Indian summer monsoon.Although precipitation is observed to be 70%below normal levels,in some areas the topography affects the intensity of rainfall.These shifting phenomenon of other monsoon season in the region are impacting on the variability of rainfall and the onset of monsoons in Southeast Asia and is predicted to delay for 15 days the onset of the monsoon in the future.The variability of monsoon rainfall in the SEA region is observed to be decadal and the frequency and intensity of intermittent flooding of some areas during the monsoon season have serious consequences on the human,financial,infrastructure and food security of the region.

Interannual Climate Variability Change during the Medieval Climate Anomaly and Little Ice Age in PMIP3 Last Millennium Simulations

In this study, we analyzed numerical experiments undertaken by 10 climate models participating in PMIP3（Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3） to examine the changes in interannual temperature variability and coefficient of variation（CV） of interannual precipitation in the warm period of the Medieval Climate Anomaly（MCA） and the cold period of the Little Ice Age（LIA）. With respect to the past millennium period, the MCA temperature variability decreases by 2.0% on average over the globe, and most of the decreases occur in low latitudes. In the LIA, temperature variability increases by a global average of 0.6%, which occurs primarily in the high latitudes of Eurasia and the western Pacific. For the CV of interannual precipitation, regional-scale changes are more significant than changes at the global scale, with a pattern of increased（decreased） CV in the midlatitudes of Eurasia and the northwestern Pacific in the MCA（LIA）. The CV change ranges from-7.0% to 4.3%（from -6.3% to 5.4%）, with a global average of -0.5%（-0.07%） in the MCA（LIA）.Also, the variability changes are considerably larger in December–January–February with respect to both temperature and precipitation.

Multi-scale variation characteristics of polar vortex at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere

By use of 1948-2007 NCEP/NCAR reanalysis monthly geopotential data, a set of circulation indices are defined to characterize the polar vortex at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere, including area-（S）, intensity-（P） and centre position-（λc , φc） indices. Sea-sonal variation, interannual anomalies and their possible causes of 10 hPa polar vortex in the Southern Hemisphere are analyzed by using these indices, the relationship between 10 hPa polar vortex strength and the Antarctic Oscillation are analyzed as well. The results show that： （1） the polar region at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere is controlled by anticyclone （cyclone） from Dec. to Jan. （from Mar. to Oct.）, Feb. and Nov. are circulation transition seasons. （2） Intensity index （P） and area index （S） of anticy-clone （cyclone） in Jan. （Jul.） show a significant spike in the late 1970s, the anticyclone （cyclone） enhances （weakens） from ex-tremely weak （strong） oscillation to near the climatic mean before a spike, anticyclone tends to the mean state from very strong oscillation and cyclone oscillates in the weaker state after the spike. （3） There is significant interdecadal change for the anticyclone center in Jan., while markedly interannual variation for cyclone center in July. （4） The ozone anomalies can cause the interannual anomaly of the polar anticyclone at 10 hPa in the Southern Hemisphere in Jan. （positive correlation between them）, but it is not related to the polar cyclone anomalies. （5） There is notable negative correlation between the polar vortex intensity index P and the Antarctic Oscillation index （AAOI）, thus AAOI can be represented by P.

A PRINCIPAL MODE OF CIRCULATION COVARIATION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN HEMISPHERES AND ITS ASSOCIATION WITH ENSO DURING BOREAL WINTER

By employing the singular value decomposition(SVD) analysis, we have investigated in the present paper the covariations between circulation changes in the Northern(NH) and Southern Hemispheres(SH) and their associations with ENSO by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the reconstructed monthly NOAA SST, and CMAP precipitation along with NOAA Climate Prediction Center(CPC) ENSO indices. A bi-hemispheric covariation mode(hereafter BHCM) is explored, which is well represented by the first mode of the SVD analysis of sea surface pressure anomaly(SLPA-SVD1). This SVD mode can explain 57.36% of the total covariance of SLPA. BHCM varies in time with a long-term trend and periodicities of 3—5 years. The long term trend revealed by SVD1 shows that the SLP increases in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific but decreases in the western Pacific and tropical Indian Ocean, which facilitates easterlies in the lower troposphere to be intensified and El Ni觡o events to occur with lower frequency. The spatial pattern of the BHCM looks roughly symmetric about the equator in the tropics, whereas it is characterized by zonal disturbances in the mid-latitude of NH and is highly associated with AAO in the mid-latitude of SH. On inter-annual time scales, the BHCM is highly correlated with ENSO. The atmosphere in both the NH and SH responds to sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial region, while the contemporaneous circulation changes in the NH and SH in turn affect the occurrence of El Ni觡o/La Ni觡a. In boreal winter, significant temperature and precipitation anomalies associated with the BHCM are found worldwide. Specifically, in the positive phase of the BHCM,temperature and precipitation are anomalously low in eastern China and some other regions of East Asia. These results are helpful for us to better understand interactions between circulations in the NH and SH and the dynamical mechanisms behind these interactions.

EL NINO AND CLIMATE ANOMALY IN CHINA

From the point of view of atmospheric science and oceanography, the author explores the origin of abnormal climatic phenomena of El Nino and La Nina, the interaction between the two and their influence on climatic anomalies in China in general, and on precipitation in the Yangtze River Valley in particular.

An Improved Method for Defining Short-Term Climate Anomalies

A conventional method to define short-term climate anomalies for atmospheric and oceanic variables,recommended by the World Meteorological Organization(WMO),is the departure from a 30-yr climatological mean in the preceding three decades.Such a method,however,introduces spurious errors such as sudden jumps and artificial trends.A new method,named a trend correctional method,is introduced to eliminate the errors.To demonstrate the capability of this new method,we examine a set of idealized cases first by superposing a"true"interannual or interdecadal signal onto a linear or a nonlinear trend.Comparing to the conventional method,the trend correctional method is able to retain,to a large extent,the"true"anomaly signals.Next,we examined real-time indices.The anomaly time series derived based on the trend correctional method show a better agreement with the observed anomaly series.The rootmean-square error is greatly improved,comparing to that calculated based on the conventional method.Therefore,the results from both the idealized and real cases demonstrate that the new method has a clear advantage to the conventional method in deriving true climate anomalies,in particular under the ongoing global warming circumstance.

Quantitative attribution of Northern Hemisphere temperatures over the past 2000 years

Quantitative assessment of natural internal variability and externally forced responses of Northern Hemisphere(NH)temperatures is necessary for understanding and attributing climate change signals during past warm and cold periods.However,it remains a challenge to distinguish the robust internally generated variability from the observed variability.Here,largeensemble(70 member)simulations,Energy Balance Model simulation,temperature ensemble reconstruction,and three dominant external forcings(volcanic,solar,and greenhouse gas)were combined to estimate the internal variability of NH summer(June–August)temperatures over the past 2000 years(1–2000 CE).Results indicate that the Medieval Climate Anomaly was predominantly attributed to centennial-scale internal oscillation,accounting for an estimated 104%of the warming anomaly.In contrast,the Current Warm Period is influenced mainly by external forcing,contributing up to 90%of the warming anomaly.Internal temperature variability offsets cooling by volcanic eruptions during the Late Antique Little Ice Age.These findings have important implications for the attribution of past climate variability and improvement of future climate projections.