CHARACTERISTICS AND TRENDS OF CLIMATIC EXTREMES IN CHINA DURING 1959-2014

The spatial and temporal variations of daily maximum temperature(Tmax), daily minimum temperature(Tmin), daily maximum precipitation(Pmax) and daily maximum wind speed(WSmax) were examined in China using Mann-Kendall test and linear regression method. The results indicated that for China as a whole, Tmax, Tmin and Pmax had significant increasing trends at rates of 0.15℃ per decade, 0.45℃ per decade and 0.58 mm per decade,respectively, while WSmax had decreased significantly at 1.18 m·s^(-1) per decade during 1959—2014. In all regions of China, Tmin increased and WSmax decreased significantly. Spatially, Tmax increased significantly at most of the stations in South China(SC), northwestern North China(NC), northeastern Northeast China(NEC), eastern Northwest China(NWC) and eastern Southwest China(SWC), and the increasing trends were significant in NC, SC, NWC and SWC on the regional average. Tmin increased significantly at most of the stations in China, with notable increase in NEC, northern and southeastern NC and northwestern and eastern NWC. Pmax showed no significant trend at most of the stations in China, and on the regional average it decreased significantly in NC but increased in SC, NWC and the mid-lower Yangtze River valley(YR). WSmax decreased significantly at the vast majority of stations in China, with remarkable decrease in northern NC, northern and central YR, central and southern SC and in parts of central NEC and western NWC. With global climate change and rapidly economic development, China has become more vulnerable to climatic extremes and meteorological disasters, so more strategies of mitigation and/or adaptation of climatic extremes,such as environmentally-friendly and low-cost energy production systems and the enhancement of engineering defense measures are necessary for government and social publics.

2023: Weather and Climate Extremes Hitting the Globe with Emerging Features

Globally,2023 was the warmest observed year on record since at least 1850 and,according to proxy evidence,possibly of the past 100000 years.As in recent years,the record warmth has again been accompanied with yet more extreme weather and climate events throughout the world.Here,we provide an overview of those of 2023,with details and key background causes to help build upon our understanding of the roles of internal climate variability and anthropogenic climate change.We also highlight emerging features associated with some of these extreme events.Hot extremes are occurring earlier in the year,and increasingly simultaneously in differing parts of the world(e.g.,the concurrent hot extremes in the Northern Hemisphere in July 2023).Intense cyclones are exacerbating precipitation extremes(e.g.,the North China flooding in July and the Libya flooding in September).Droughts in some regions(e.g.,California and the Horn of Africa)have transitioned into flood conditions.Climate extremes also show increasing interactions with ecosystems via wildfires(e.g.,those in Hawaii in August and in Canada from spring to autumn 2023)and sandstorms(e.g.,those in Mongolia in April 2023).Finally,we also consider the challenges to research that these emerging characteristics present for the strategy and practice of adaptation.

Extreme Meteorological Drought Events over China(1951-2022):Migration Patterns,Diversity of Temperature Extremes,and Decadal Variations

Recently,extreme meteorological droughts have affected China,causing terrible socioeconomic impacts.Despite previous research on the spatiotemporal characteristics and mechanisms of drought,two crucial issues remain seldom explored.First,an event-oriented drought chronology with detailed spatiotemporal evolutions is urgently required.Second,the complex migration patterns and diversity of synchronous temperature extremes need to be quantitatively investigated.Accordingly,the main achievements of our investigation are as follows.We produced an event-oriented set of extreme meteorological droughts over China through the application of a newly developed 3D DBSCAN-based detection method(deposited on https://doi.org/10.25452/figshare.plus.25512334),which was verified with a historical atlas and monographs on a case-by-case basis.In addition,distinctive migration patterns(i.e.,stationary/propagation types)are identified and ranked,considering the differences in latitudinal zones and coastal/inland locations.We also analyze the diversity of synchronous temperature extremes(e.g.,hotness and coldness).Notably,an increasing trend in hot droughts occurred over China since the late 1990s,predominantly appearing to the south of 30°N and north of 40°N.All drought events and synchronous temperature extremes are ranked using a comprehensive magnitude index,with the 2022 summer-autumn Yangtze River hot drought being the hottest.Furthermore,Liang-Kleeman information flow-based causality analysis emphasizes key areas where the PDO and AMO influenced decadal variations in coverages of droughts and temperature extremes.We believe that the achievements in this study may offer new insights into sequential mechanism exploration and prediction-related issues.

Response of drought to climate extremes in a semi-arid inland river basin in China

Against the backdrop of global warming,climate extremes and drought events have become more severe,especially in arid and semi-arid areas.This study forecasted the characteristics of climate extremes in the Xilin River Basin(a semi-arid inland river basin)of China for the period of 2021–2100 by employing a multi-model ensemble approach based on three climate Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)scenarios(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5)from the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).Furthermore,a linear regression,a wavelet analysis,and the correlation analysis were conducted to explore the response of climate extremes to the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index(SPEI)and Streamflow Drought Index(SDI),as well as their respective trends during the historical period from 1970 to 2020 and during the future period from 2021 to 2070.The results indicated that extreme high temperatures and extreme precipitation will further intensify under the higher forcing scenarios(SSP5-8.5>SSP2-4.5>SSP1-2.6)in the future.The SPEI trends under the SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,and SSP5-8.5 scenarios were estimated as–0.003/a,–0.004/a,and–0.008/a,respectively,indicating a drier future climate.During the historical period(1970–2020),the SPEI and SDI trends were–0.003/a and–0.016/a,respectively,with significant cycles of 15 and 22 a,and abrupt changes occurring in 1995 and 1996,respectively.The next abrupt change in the SPEI was projected to occur in the 2040s.The SPEI had a significant positive correlation with both summer days(SU)and heavy precipitation days(R10mm),while the SDI was only significantly positively correlated with R10mm.Additionally,the SPEI and SDI exhibited a strong and consistent positive correlation at a cycle of 4–6 a,indicating a robust interdependence between the two indices.These findings have important implications for policy makers,enabling them to improve water resource management of inland river basins in arid and semi-arid areas under future climate uncertainty.

IoT-based green-smart photovoltaic system under extreme climatic conditions for sustainable energy development

To realize carbon neutrality,there is an urgent need to develop sustainable,green energy systems(especially solar energy systems)owing to the environmental friendliness of solar energy,given the substantial greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel-based power sources.When it comes to the evolution of intelligent green energy systems,Internet of Things(IoT)-based green-smart photovoltaic(PV)systems have been brought into the spotlight owing to their cutting-edge sensing and data-processing technologies.This review is focused on three critical segments of IoT-based green-smart PV systems.First,the climatic parameters and sensing technologies for IoT-based PV systems under extreme weather conditions are presented.Second,the methods for processing data from smart sensors are discussed,in order to realize health monitoring of PV systems under extreme environmental conditions.Third,the smart materials applied to sensors and the insulation materials used in PV backsheets are susceptible to aging,and these materials and their aging phenomena are highlighted in this review.This review also offers new perspectives for optimizing the current international standards for green energy systems using big data from IoT-based smart sensors.

Does CMIP6 Inspire More Confidence in Simulating Climate Extremes over China?

Based on climate extreme indices calculated from a high-resolution daily observational dataset in China during 1961–2005,the performance of 12 climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6),and 30 models from phase 5 of CMIP(CMIP5),are assessed in terms of spatial distribution and interannual variability.The CMIP6 multi-model ensemble mean(CMIP6-MME)can simulate well the spatial pattern of annual mean temperature,maximum daily maximum temperature,and minimum daily minimum temperature.However,CMIP6-MME has difficulties in reproducing cold nights and warm days,and has large cold biases over the Tibetan Plateau.Its performance in simulating extreme precipitation indices is generally lower than in simulating temperature indices.Compared to CMIP5,CMIP6 models show improvements in the simulation of climate indices over China.This is particularly true for precipitation indices for both the climatological pattern and the interannual variation,except for the consecutive dry days.The arealmean bias for total precipitation has been reduced from 127%(CMIP5-MME)to 79%(CMIP6-MME).The most striking feature is that the dry biases in southern China,very persistent and general in CMIP5-MME,are largely reduced in CMIP6-MME.Stronger ascent together with more abundant moisture can explain this reduction in dry biases.Wet biases for total precipitation,heavy precipitation,and precipitation intensity in the eastern Tibetan Plateau are still present in CMIP6-MME,but smaller,compared to CMIP5-MME.

Trends in Temperature Extremes in Association with Weather-Intraseasonal Fluctuations in Eastern China

Trends in the frequencies of four temperature extremes （the occurrence of warm days, cold days, warm nights and cold nights） with respect to a modulated annual cycle （MAC）, and those associated exclusively with weather-intraseasonal fluctuations （WIF） in eastern China were investigated based on an updated homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature dataset for 1960–2008. The Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition （EEMD） method was used to isolate the WIF, MAC, and longer-term components from the temperature series. The annual, winter and summer occurrences of warm （cold） nights were found to have increased （decreased） significantly almost everywhere, while those of warm （cold） days have increased （decreased） in northern China （north of 40°N）. However, the four temperature extremes associated exclusively with WIF for winter have decreased almost everywhere, while those for summer have decreased in the north but increased in the south. These characteristics agree with changes in the amplitude of WIF. In particular, winter WIF of maximum temperature tended to weaken almost everywhere, especially in eastern coastal areas （by 10%–20%）; summer WIF tended to intensify in southern China by 10%–20%. It is notable that in northern China, the occurrence of warm days has increased, even where that associated with WIF has decreased significantly. This suggests that the recent increasing frequency of warm extremes is due to a considerable rise in the mean temperature level, which surpasses the effect of the weakening weather fluctuations in northern China.

Changes of Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in Hengduan Mountains,Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in 1961-2008

Variations and trends in extreme climate events are more sensitive to climate change than the mean values, and so have received much attention. In this study, twelve indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipita- tion extremes at 32 meteorological stations in Hengduan Mountains were examined for the period 1961-2008. The re- suits reveal statistically significant increases in the temperature of the warmest and coldest nights and in the frequen- cies of extreme warm days and nights. Decreases of the diurnal temperature range and the numbers of frost days and ice days are statistically significant. Regional averages of growing season length also display the trends consistent and significant with warming. At a large proportion of the stations, patterns of temperature extremes are consistent with warming since 1961： warming trends in minimum temperature indices are greater than those relating to maximum temperature. As the center of the Shaluli Mountain, the warming magnitudes decrease from inner to outer. Changes in precipitation extremes is low： trends are difficult to detect against the larger inter-annual and decadal-scale variability of precipitation, and only the wet day precipitation and the regional trend in consecutive dry days are significant at the 0.05 level. It can be concluded that the variation of extreme precipitation events is not obvious in the Hengduan Mountains, however, the regional trends generally decrease from the south to the north. Overall, the spatial distribution of temporal changes of all extreme climate indices in the Hengduan Mountains illustrated here reflects the climatic complexity in mountainous regions.

Changes in Daily Climate Extremes of Observed Temperature and Precipitation in China

Daily precipitation for 1960-2011 and maximum/minimum temperature extremes for 1960-2008 recorded at 549 stations in China are utilized to investigate climate extreme variations.A set of indices is derived and analyzed with a main focus on the trends and variabilities of daily extreme occurrences.Results show significant increases in daily extreme warm temperatures and decreases in daily extreme cold temperatures,defined as the number of days in which daily maximum temperature （Tmax） and daily minimum temperature （Tmin） are greater than the 90th percentile and less than thel0th percentile,respectively.Generally,the trend magnitudes are larger in indices derived from Tmin than those from Tmax.Trends of percentile-based precipitation indices show distinct spatial patterns with increases in heavy precipitation events,defined as the top 95th percentile of daily precipitation,in westem and northeastern China and in the low reaches of the Yangtze River basin region,and slight decreases in other areas.Light precipitation,defined as the tail of the 5th percentile of daily precipitation,however,decreases in most areas.The annual maximum consecutive dry days （CDD） show an increasing trend in southem China and the middle-low reach of the Yellow River basin,while the annual maximum consecutive wet days （CWD） displays a downtrend over most regions except western China.These indices vary significantly with regions and seasons.Overall,occurrences of extreme events in China are more frequent,particularly the night time extreme temperature,and landmasses in China become warmer and wetter.

2021:A Year of Unprecedented Climate Extremes in Eastern Asia,North America,and Europe

The year 2021 was recorded as the 6th warmest since 1880.In addition to large-scale warming,2021 will be remembered for its unprecedented climate extremes.Here,a review of selected high-impact climate extremes in 2021,with a focus on China,along with an extension to extreme events in North America and Europe is presented.Nine extreme events that occurred in 2021 in China are highlighted,including a rapid transition from cold to warm extremes and sandstorms in spring,consecutive drought in South China and severe thunderstorms in eastern China in the first half of the year,extremely heavy rainfall over Henan Province and Hubei Province during summer,as well as heatwaves,persistent heavy rainfall,and a cold surge during fall.Potential links of extremes in China to four global-scale climate extremes and the underlying physical mechanisms are discussed here,providing insights to understand climate extremes from a global perspective.This serves as a reference for climate event attribution,process understanding,and high-resolution modeling of extreme events.

Trends in Temperature and Precipitation Extremes over Circum-Bohai-Sea Region,China

Trends in temperature and precipitation extremes from 1961 to 2008 have been investigated over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, China using daily temperature and precipitation data of 63 meteorological stations. The re- suits show that at most stations, there is a significant increase in the annual frequency of warm days and warm nights, as well as a significant decrease in the annual frequency of cold days, cold nights, frost days, and annual diurnal tem- perature range （DTR）. Their regional averaged changes are 2.06 d/1 0yr, 3.95 d/10yr, -1.88 d/10yr, -4.27 d/10yr, -4.21 d/10yr and -0.20℃/10yr, respectively. Seasonal changes display similar patterns to the annual results, but there is a large seasonal difference. A significant warming trend is detected at both annual and seasonal scales, which is more contributed by changes of indices defined by daily minimum temperature than those defined by daily maximum tem- perature. For precipitation indices, the regional annual extreme precipitation displays a weak decrease in terms of magnitude and frequency, i.e. extreme precipitation days （RD95p）, intensity （RINTEN）, proportion （RPROP） and maximum consecutive wet days （CWD）, but a slight increase in the maximum consecutive dry days （CDD）, which are consistent with changes of annual total precipitation （PRCPTOT）. Seasonally, PRCPTOT and RD95p both exhibit an increase in spring and a decrease in other seasons with the largest decrease in summer, but generally not significant. In summary, this study shows a pronounced warming tendency at the less rainy period over Circum-Bohai-Sea region, which may affect regional economic development and ecological protection to some extent.

Impacts of Multi-Scale Solar Activity on Climate.Part Ⅰ:Atmospheric Circulation Patterns and Climate Extremes

The impacts of solar activity on climate are explored in this two-part study. Based on the principles of atmospheric dynamics, Part I propose an amplifying mechanism of solar impacts on winter climate extremes through changing the atmospheric circulation patterns. This mechanism is supported by data analysis of the sunspot number up to the predicted Solar Cycle 24, the historical surface temperature data, and atmospheric variables of NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis up to the February 2011 for the Northern Hemisphere winters. For low solar activity, the thermal contrast between the low- and high-latitudes is enhanced, so as the mid-latitude baroclinic ultra-long wave activity. The land-ocean thermal contrast is also enhanced, which amplifies the topographic waves. The enhanced mid-latitude waves in turn enhance the meridional heat transport from the low to high latitudes, making the atmospheric ＂heat engine＂ more efficient than normal. The jets shift southward and the polar vortex is weakened. The Northern Annular Mode （NAM） index tends to be negative. The mid-latitude surface exhibits large-scale convergence and updrafts, which favor extreme weather/climate events to occur. The thermally driven Siberian high is enhanced, which enhances the East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM）. For high solar activity, the mid-latitude circulation patterns are less wavy with less meridional transport. The NAM tends to be positive, and the Siberian high and the EAWM tend to be weaker than normal. Thus the extreme weather/climate events for high solar activity occur in different regions with different severity from those for low solar activity. The solar influence on the mid- to high-latitude surface temperature and circulations can stand out after removing the influence from the E1 Nifio-Southern Oscillation. The atmospheric amplifying mechanism indicates that the solar impacts on climate should not be simply estimated by the magnitude of the change in the solar radiation over solar cycles when it is compared with other external radiative forcings that do not influence the climate in the same way as the sun does.

Changes in Climatic Factors and Extreme Climate Events in Northeast China during 1961-2010

This study focuses on examining the characteristics of climate factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961- 2010 by using daily data from 104 stations, including surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, and snow depth. Results show that annual mean temperature increased at a significant rate of 0.35℃ per decade, most notably in the Lesser Khingan Mountains and in winter. Annual rainfall had no obvious linear trend, while rainy days had a significant decreasing trend. So, the rain intensity increased. High-temperature days had a weak increasing trend, and low-temperature days and cold wave showed significant decreasing trends with rates of 3.9 d per decade and -0.64 times per decade, respectively. Frequency and spatial scope of low-temperature hazard reduced significantly. Warm days and warm nights significantly increased at 1.0 and 2.4 d per decade, while cold days and cold nights decreased significantly at -1.8 and -4.1 d per decade, respectively. The nighttime warming rate was much higher than that for daytime, indicating that nighttime warming had a greater contribution to the overall warming trend than daytime warming. The annual mean wind speed, gale days, and sunshine duration had significant decreasing trends at rates of-0.21 m s-1 per decade, -4.0 d per decade and -43.3 h per decade, respectively. The snow cover onset dates postponed at a rate of 1.2 d per decade, and the snow cover end date advanced at 1.5 d per decade, which leads to shorter snow cover duration by -2.7 d per decade. Meanwhile, the maximum snow depth decreased at -0.52 cm per decade. In addition, the snow cover duration shows a higher correlation with precipitation than with temperature, which suggests that precipitation plays a more important role in maintaining snow cover duration than temperature.

Analysis on Changes of Basic Climatic Elements and Extreme Events in Xinjiang, China during 1961-2010

By using the observation data from 89 weather stations in Xinjiang during 1961-2010, this paper analyzed the basic climatic elements including temperature, precipitation, wind speed, sunshine duration, water vapor pressure, and dust storm in the entire Xinjiang and the subareas: North Xinjiang, Tianshan Mountains, and South Xinjiang. The results indicate that from 1961 to 2010 the annual and seasonal mean temperatures in the entire Xinjiang show an increasing trend with the increasing rate rising from south to north. The increasing rate of annual mean minimum temperature is over twice more than that of the annual mean maximum temperature, contributing much to the increase in the annual averages. The magnitude of the decrease rate of low-temperature days is larger than the increase rate of high-temperature days. The increase of warm days and warm nights and the decrease of cold days and cold nights further reveal that the temperature increasing in Xinjiang is higher. In addition, annual and seasonal rainfalls have been increasing. South Xinjiang experiences higher increase in rainfall amounts than North Xinjiang and Tianshan Mountains. Annual rainy days, longest consecutive rainy days, the daily maximum precipitation and extreme precipitation events, annual torrential rain days and amount, annual blizzard days and amount, all show an increasing trend, corresponding to the increasing in annual mean water vapor pressure. This result shows that the humidity has increased with temperature increasing in the past 50 years. The decrease in annual mean wind speed and gale days lessen the impact of dust storm, sandstorm, and floating dust events. The increase in annual rainy days is the cause of the decrease in annual sunshine duration, while the increase in spring sunshine duration corresponds with the decrease in dust weather. Therefore, the increase in precipitation indicators, the decrease in gales and dust weather, and the increasing in sunshine duration in spring will be beneficial to crops growth.

Detecting Changes in Precipitation and Temperature Extremes over China Using a Regional Climate Model with Water Table Dynamics Considered

Simulations were conducted with the regional climate model RegCM incorporating water table dynamics from 1 September 1982 to 28 August 2002 to detect precipitation and temperature extremes. Compared with observed r10(number of days with precipitation ≥ 10 mm d–1), RegCM3_Hydro(the regional climate model with water table dynamics considered) simulated rain belts, including those in southern China and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, and provided data for arid to semi-arid areas such as the Heihe River Basin in northwestern China. RegCM3_Hydro indicated a significant increasing trend of r95p(days with daily precipitation greater than the 95th percentile of daily amounts) for the Yangtze, Yellow, and Pearl River basins, consistent with r95p observations. The Haihe River Basin was also chosen as a specific case to detect the effect of groundwater on extreme precipitation using peaks over threshold(POT)-based generalized Pareto distribution(GPD) with parameters estimated by the L-moment method. Quantile plots showed that all but a few of the plotted points were distributed near diagonal lines and the modeled data fitted well with the samples. Finally, the effects of water table dynamics on temperature extremes were also evaluated. In the Yellow River Basin and Songhuajiang River Basin, the trends of the number of warm days(TX95n) from RegCM3_Hydro matched observed values more closely when water table dynamics were considered, and clearly increasing numbers of warm days from 1983 to 2001 were detected.

The Extremely Hot and Dry Climatic Events and Potash Enrichment in Salt Lakes of the Jiangling Depression, Jianghan Basin

Objective A total of 820 million tons of potash reserves are predicted to exist in the Palaeocene-Eocene of the Jianghan Basin. However, the basin history is still unclear concerning the potash enriching conditions and mechanism. The Well SKDI is the first exploration well drilled in the Paleogene of Jianghan Basin with continuous coring, which was implemented in the south-central Jiangling Basin in 2013. It is essential to study the Palaeocene-Eocene paleoclimate, to further constrain the extreme draught events and the potash forming conditions.

Changes in daily climate extremes in Xinjiang, northwestern China

Based on daily maximum and minimum surface air temperature and precipitation records at 48 meteorological stations in Xinjiang, the spatial and temporal distributions of climate extreme indices have been analyzed during 1961-2008. Twelve temperature ex- treme indices and six precipitation extreme indices are studied. Temperature extremes are highly correlated to annual mean tem- perature, which appears to be significantly increasing by 0.08 ℃ per year, indicating that changes in temperature extremes reflect consistent warming. The warming tendency is clearer at stations in northern Xinjiang as reflected by mean temperature. The fre- quencies of cold days and nights have both decreased, respectively by -0.86 and -2.45 d/decade, but the frequencies of warm days and nights have both increased, respectively by ＋1.62 and ＋4.85 d/decade. Over the same period, the number of frost days shows a statistically significant decreasing trend of-2.54 d/decade. The growing season length and the number of summer days exhibit significant increasing trends at rates of ＋2.62 and ＋2.86 d/decade, respectively. The diumal temperature range has de- creased by -0.28 ℃/decade. Both annual extreme low and high temperatures exhibit significant increasing trend, with the former clearly larger than the latter. For precipitation indices, regional annual total precipitation shows an increasing trend and most other precipitation indices are strongly correlated with annual total precipitation. Average wet day precipitation, maximum 1-day and 5-day precipitation, and heavy precipitation days show increasing trends, but only the last is statistically significant. A decreasing trend is found for consecutive dry days. For all precipitation indices, stations in northwestern Xinjiang have the largest positive trend magnitudes, while stations in northern Xiniiang have the largest negative magnitudes.

The Effect of Extreme Climatic Events on Extreme Runoff in the Past 50 Years in the Manas River Basin, Xinjiang, China

To analyze extreme climatic change features and effects on runoff in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang, data were collected including daily mean temperature, daily highest and lowest temperatures, and daily precipitation from six meteorological stations in the Manas River basin as well as daily runoff data from the Kensiwate hydrologic stations during 1960-2010. By adopting the threshold value of extreme climatic events defined by ET ALDDMI and with the aid of nonparametric statistical tests, Pearson III methods, and others, the effect of extreme climatic events on extreme runoff in the past 50 years in the Manas River basin, Xinjiang, was analyzed. The results showed that in the past 50 years, 1) extreme warming events (annual extreme maximum temperature, warm-day and warm-night index) have risen significantly (P < 0.05). Among these the warm-day and warm-night indices decreased abruptly in 2001 and 1996, respectively. With respect to extreme cold events (annual extreme minimum temperature, cold-day and cold-night indices), the extreme minimum temperature was high after 1976, and the cold-day index weakened significantly, similar to the cold-night index. 2) Except for the continuous drought days (CDD), the other five indices of extreme precipitation events appeared to trend upward, with an abrupt change around 1993. 3) Flood events in 1990, mostly in summer, accounted for 42.9% of the total number of floods since 1960. Floods increased mainly because extremely high summer temperatures increased snowmelt, increasing inflow to the rivers, which combined with more precipitation to cause the increase in summer peak flood discharge.

Assessing Change of Lamto Reserve Area Based on the MODIS Time Series Data and Bioclimatic Factors Using BFAST Algorithms

Lamto Reserve area is a savannah landscape threatened by periodic drought, and anthropogenic activities leading to natural ecological imbalance. The ecological support services of the landscape had been significantly impacted by the grassland ecosystem. The Breaks for Additive Season and Trend Algorithms have been implemented in R to analyze the land cover/land use dynamic in relation to the climatic driver of Lamto forest from 2000 to 2020. We examine the vegetation state breaks using vegetation phenological patterns, and several time series including the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and the Enhanced Vegetation Index, were studied utilizing Breaks for Additive Season and Trend. The findings indicate that the phenological changes in the vegetation in 2020 resulted from an increased temperature from (27.7°C) to (32.17°C), and a decrease in precipitation (71.75 millimeters). The analysis of variance ANOVA of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test reveals a strong correlation between Precipitation/Evapotranspiration Grass (p mperature/Evapotranspiration Grass (p < 0.311), and Temperature/Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (p in vegetation detected by the Breaks for Additive Season and Trend Algorithms were caused by temperature extremes and reduced rainfall.

Assessment of Spatial Distribution and Temporal Trends of Precipitation and Its Extremes over Nigeria

This study analyzed the spatial distribution and temporal trends of precipitation and its extremes over Nigeria from 1979-2013 using climate indices, in order to assess climatic extremes in the country. Daily precipitation data used in this study were obtained from Nigeria Meteorological Agency (NIMET), Lagos. The study used climate indices developed by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection (ETCCDI) for assessing extreme precipitation. Sen’s slope estimator and Mann-Kendall trend test were employed in data analysis. Results revealed that precipitation and its extremes varied spatially across Nigeria. Significant negative trends were observed in most of the precipitation indices for the period under study. Furthermore, significant downward trends were observed in the CWD (Consecutive Wet Day) while the CDD (Consecutive Dry Day) showed significant upward trends in all the regions. These spatial and temporal changes indicate that Nigeria’s climate is trending towards a warmer and drier condition, which could be attributed to global warming-induced climate change;which altered historical rainfall patterns thereby leading to extreme events. The findings of this study have provided useful information in understanding the extreme events that are assumed by the general populace to be normal recurrent events in Nigeria. The results of the analysis of yearly and decadal changes in precipitation totals and extreme values for the last 35 years (1979-2013) suggest the likelihood of severe impacts on water resources, agriculture, and water-sensitive economic activities