CLIMATIC VARIATIONS IN CHINA OVER THE LAST 2000 YEARS

A compilation of paleoclimate records from ice core, tree-rings, lake sediments and historical documents provides a view of temperature change in China over the recent 2000 years. For all-China temperature reconstruction, six sub-stages are identified for the last two millennia. Around AD 0－240, AD 800－1100, AD 1320－1400 and the period from AD 1880 on were warm while around AD 240－800, AD 1100－1320, AD 1400－1880 were cold. Also, temperature varied from region to region in each of the warm or cold periods. The Eastern Han warm period (0－AD 240), the cold period covering the span of Wei, Jin, and the Southern and Northern Dynasties, the MWP (AD 800－1100) and succeeding LIA occurred in eastern China and the Qilian Mountains. Only the first two climatic events were recorded in Guliya ice core while the so-called MWP and LIA was far weaker. Also, the warming between AD 800 and 1100 didn′t occur in the south of Xizang (Tibet) Plateau. Instead, the southern Xizang Plateau experienced warming in AD 1150－1400. The aggregated China temperature agrees well with North-hemisphere temperature in the past millennia, indicating close relationship of temperature changes between China and North-hemisphere.

Dynamics and Responses of Vegetation to Climatic Variations in Ziya- Daqing Basins, China

Examining the direct and indirect effects of climatic factors on vegetation growth is critical to understand the complex linkage between climate change and vegetation dynamics. Based on the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) data and meteorological data(temperature and precipitation) from 2001 to 2012, the trend of vegetation dynamics were examined in the Ziya-Daqing basins, China. The path analysis was used to obtain the information on the relationships among climatic factors and their effects on vegetation growth. It was found that the trends of growing season NDVI were insignificant in most plain dry land, while the upward trends were significant in forest, grass and dry land in Taihang Mountains. According to the path analysis, in 23% of the basins the inter-annual NDVI variation was dominated by the direct effect of precipitation, in 5% by the direct effects of precipitation and temperature, and in less than 1% by the direct effect of temperature or indirect effects of these two climatic factors. It indicated that precipitation significantly affected the vegetation growth in the whole basins, and this effect was not regulated by temperature. Precipitation increase(especially in July, August and September) was favorable to greenness enhancement. Summer temperature rising showed negative effect on plant productivity enhancement, but temperature rise in April was beneficial for the vegetation growth. When April temperature increases by 1℃, the onset date of greenness for natural vegetation will be 2 days in advance. There was a lag-time effect of precipitation or temperature on monthly NDVI for all land use types except grass.

Responses of grassland vegetation to climatic variations on different temporal scales in Hulun Buir Grassland in the past 30 years

Global warming has led to significant vegetation changes especially in the past 20 years. Hulun Buir Grassland in Inner Mongolia, one of the world’s three prairies, is undergoing a process of prominent warming and drying. It is essential to investigate the effects of climatic change （temperature and precipitation） on vegetation dynamics for a better understanding of climatic change. NDVI （Normalized Difference Vegetation Index）, reflecting characteristics of plant growth, vegetation coverage and biomass, is used as an indicator to monitor vegetation changes. GIMMS NDVI from 1981 to 2006 and MODIS NDVI from 2000 to 2009 were adopted and integrated in this study to extract the time series characteristics of vegetation changes in Hulun Buir Grassland. The responses of vegetation coverage to climatic change on the yearly, seasonal and monthly scales were analyzed combined with temperature and precipitation data of seven meteorological sites. In the past 30 years, vegetation coverage was more correlated with climatic factors, and the correlations were dependent on the time scales. On an inter-annual scale, vegetation change was better correlated with precipitation, suggesting that rainfall was the main factor for driving vegetation changes. On a seasonal-interannual scale, correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors showed that the sensitivity of vegetation growth to the aqueous and thermal condition changes was different in different seasons. The sensitivity of vegetation growth to temperature in summers was higher than in the other seasons, while its sensitivity to rainfall in both summers and autumns was higher, especially in summers. On a monthly-interannual scale, correlations between vegetation coverage change and climatic factors during growth seasons showed that the response of vegetation changes to temperature in both April and May was stronger. This indicates that the temperature effect occurs in the early stage of vegetation growth. Correlations between vegetation growth and precipitation of the month before the current month, were better from May to August, showing a hysteresis response of vegetation growth to rainfall. Grasses get green and begin to grow in April, and the impacts of temperature on grass growth are obvious. The increase of NDVI in April may be due to climatic warming that leads to an advanced growth season. In summary, relationships between monthly-interannual variations of vegetation coverage and climatic factors represent the temporal rhythm controls of temperature and precipitation on grass growth largely.

Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Variations of Monthly Mean Surface Air Temperature over Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

The recorded meteorological data of monthly mean surface air temperature from 72 meteorological stations over the Qinghal-Tibet Plateau in the period of 1960-2003 have been analyzed by using Empirical Orthogonal Function （EOF） method, to understand the detailed features of its temporal and spatial variations. The results show that there was a high consistency of the monthly mean surface air temperature, with a secondarily different variation between the north and the south of the plateau. Warming trend has existed at all stations since the 1960s, while the warming rates were different in various zones. The source regions of big rivers had intense warming tendency. June, November and December were the top three fast-warming months since the 1960s; while April, July and September presented dramatic warming tendency during the last decade.

The climatic and hydrological changes and environmental responses recorded in lake sediments of Xinjiang,China

Based on the analyses of environmental proxy data in lake sediments and instrumental records of Xinjiang in northwest China, the Holocene climate and hydrological variability and its environmental responses were studied in different time scales and regions. The results showed that the Holocene climate variability had obvious differences between the north and south of Xinjiang. In northern Xinjiang, the Holocene climate was dry in the early period, humid in the middle period, and then changed to dry in the late period. However, the climate transition times were not consistent in different regions. In southern Xin- jiang, although there were many different types of climate change patterns inferred from different catch- ments, the warm and wet climate was recorded in most lake sediments in the middle Holocene. According to comparisons of some millennium scale records in lake sediments, the climate was warm and dry in the past 100 years. It can be concluded the climate showed a trend of aridity in Holocene. Especially in recent 50 years, the lake area has been shrinking rapidly because of the population growth and social economic development, which brings some environmental problems. Lake level and area changes were sensitively affected by the climate variation in geological history of Xinjiang and the lake level will continue to shrink because of the drought climate and strengthened human activities.

Preliminary Analysis of Climatic Variation during the Last 39 Years in China

The preliminary analysis of climatic variation in China during the last 39 years has been made in this paper. The results show that although the global climate is getting warmer, some parts of China are cooling. The warming only occurs in Northeast, North and the west part of Northwest China while the areas between about 35°N and Nanling Mountain, east of the Tibetan Plateau in China are getting cooler. The cooling centers are located in Sichuan, the south part of Shaanxi and the north part of Yunnan respectively. According to the theory of greenhouse effect, there are much precipitation at low and high latitudes and less precipitation in middle latitude. However, the precipitation in the most parts of China has been decreased, especially in North and Northwest China.

Global sea level variations from altimetry,GRACE and Argo data over 2005-2014

Total sea level variations（SLVs） are caused by two major components：steric variations due to thermal expansion of seawater,and mass-induced variations due to mass exchange between ocean and land.In this study,the global SLV and its steric and mass components were estimated by satellite altimetry,Argo float data and the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） data over 2005-2014.Space gravimetry observations from GRACE suggested that two-thirds of the global mean sea level rise rate observed by altimetry（i.e.,3.1 ± 0.3 mm/a from 2005 to 2014） could be explained by an increase in ocean mass.Furthermore,the global mean sea level was observed to drop significantly during the2010/2011 La Nina event,which may be attributed to the decline of ocean mass and steric SLV.Since early 2011,the global mean sea level began to rise rapidly,which was attributed to an increase in ocean mass.The findings in this study suggested that the global mean sea-level budget was closed from 2005 to 2014 based on altimetry,GRACE,and Argo data.

Water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin estimated from GRACE and satellite altimetry

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment（GRACE） satellite mission provides a unique opportunity to quantitatively study terrestrial water storage（TWS） variations. In this paper,the terrestrial water storage variations in the Poyang Lake Basin are recovered from the GRACE gravity data from January 2003 to March 2014 and compared with the Global Land Data Assimilation System（GLDAS） hydrological models and satellite altimetry. Furthermore, the impact of soil moisture content from GLDAS and rainfall from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission（TRMM） on TWS variations are investigated. Our results indicate that the TWS variations from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry have a general consistency. The TWS trends in the Poyang Lake Basin determined from GRACE, GLDAS and satellite altimetry are increasing at 0.0141 km^3/a, 0.0328 km^3/a and 0.0238 km^3/a,respectively during the investigated time period. The TWS is governed mainly by the soil moisture content and dominated primarily by the precipitation but also modulated by the flood season of the Yangtze River as well as the lake and river exchange water.

Influence of Climatic Change on Rice Production in Anqing Zone

[Objective] The research aimed to study the influence of climatic variation on rice production in Anqing zone.[Method] Based on temperature and precipitation data in rice growth period (May-November) during 1980-2009,by using five-year sliding average method,the moving average charts of temperature and rainfall were made.The variation characteristics of main factors (temperature and precipitation) which affected rice growth were analyzed.By using line moving average simulation method,the climatic yield was separated,and the influence of climatic factor on rice yield in Anqing zone was analyzed.[Result] In recent 30 years,the temperature presented rise trend in rice growth period in Anqing zone.Started from 1993,the rise was obvious.But the rainfall had decline trend,and the rainfall was stable after 2000.These were the climatic background for that rice yield had a wave of quick increase after 2000.Seen from the separated results of trend yield and meteorological yield,the variation range of relative meteorological yield was big,and the maximum yield reduction reached 27.5%.In recent 30 years,there were four yield reduction years.The relationship between meteorological yield of rice and temperature was positive correlation except in September.The excessive rainfall in the rice harvest period had unfavorable influence on rice yield.The drought was the main meteorological agricultural disaster which affected rice yield in the zone.[Conclusion] The research provided the theoretical basis for improving grain yield in Anqing zone.

A climatic variation observed in permafrost temperature at Kangiqsualujjuaq in northern Quebec

Permafrost temperatures from the surface down to about 9 m from 3 boreholes distributed around Kangiqsualujjuaq village on the coast of Hudson Strait were recorded and analyzed for the period 1989 1998. The results indicate that the permafrost is getting warm along the southern shore of Hudson Strait from 1993 to 1998 though it became cooling for the past 40 a or more. The observed trend in the order of 0.098℃/a at the 9 m depth is consistent with the long term regional warming observed in air temperatures. It also coincides with that all the global circulation models predict an enhanced warming in polar regions associated with the increase in concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

Analysis on the Climate Characteristics of Relative Humidity in Recent 40 Years in Urumqi City

By using the daily average relative humidity data in Urumqi during 1961-2000,the basic climate characteristics and the variation trend of relative humidity in Urumqi in recent 40 years were analyzed.The results showed that the yearly average relative humidity in Urumqi was 57.5%.The relative humidity in winter was 77.5% which was the biggest all the year round,and the relative humidity in summer was 41.2% which was the smallest.The relative humidity in spring,summer,autumn,winter and the yearly relative humidity all displayed the increase trend.The yearly mean relative humidity had the periods of mainly 2,3-4 and quasi-7 years.The periodic oscillation of quasi-7 years was the strongest.

Extreme Temperature Trends in the Beninese Niger River Basin (Benin)

In the context of climate change, the study of the variability of the climatic extremes in several regions of the world is of capital importance. This study has as main objective to analyze the variability of extreme temperature events in the Beninese basin of the Niger River for the recent and the near future. To achieve this objective, seven (07) extreme temperature indices based on historical daily temperature observations (1976 to 2019) and REMO RCM simulation outputs of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios (2021-2050) were calculated. The obtained results were represented by calculating the means for each index and analyzing the trends and their significance by the Mann-Kendall method. The results show that the indices of extreme temperature intensity (TNn, TXx, and DTR), and those related to the frequency of warm sequences (WSDI, TN90p and TX90p) have experienced a significant increase in the past. This increase will continue until 2050. In contrast, the cold sequence frequency index (CSDI) decrease over the historical period as well as over the future period. These indices show much more change with the RCP8.5 scenario than with the RCP4.5 of the REMO climate model. Only the TXx and CSDI indices show statistically significant changes at all stations.

A Review of Decadal/Interdecadal Climate Variation Studies in China

Decadal/interdecadal climate variability is an important element in the CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability) and has received much attention in the world. Many studies in relation to interdecadal variation have also been completed by Chinese scientists in recent years. In this paper, an introduction in outline for interdecadal climate variation research in China is presented. The content includes the features of interdecadal climate variability in China, global warming and interdecadal temperature variability, the NAO (the North Atlantic Oscillation)/NPO (the North Pacific Oscillation) and interdecadal climate variation in China, the interdecadal variation of the East Asian monsoon, the interdecadal mode of SSTA (Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly) in the North Pacific and its climate impact, and abrupt change feature of the climate.

Dryland Expansion in Northern China from 1948 to 2008

This study examines the expansion of drylands and regional climate change in northern China by analyzing the variations in aridity index （AI）, surface air temperature （SAT）, precipitation and potential evapotranspiration （PET） from 1948 to 2008. It is found that the drylands of northern China have expanded remarkably in the last 61 years. The area of drylands of the last 15 years （1994--2008） is 0.65 × 106 km2 （12%） larger than that in the period 1948-62. The boundary of drylands has extended eastward over Northeast China by about 2 °of longitude and by about 1° of latitude to the south along the middle- to-lower reaches of the Yellow River. A zonal band of expansion of semi-arid regions has occurred, stretching from western Heilongjiang Province to southern Gansu Province, while shifts to the east of semi-arid regions in dry subhumid regions have also occurred. Results show that the aridity trend of drylands in northern China is highly correlated with the long-term trend of precipitation and PET, and the expansion of semi-arid regions plays a dominant role in the areal extent of drylands, which is nearly 10 times larger than that in arid and subhumid regions.

The NPO/ NAO and Interdecadal Climate Variation in China

This article discusses the interannual variation of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and North Pacific Oscillation (NPO), its relationship with the interdecadal climate variation in China which is associated with the climate jump in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1960’s, using the data analyses. It is clearly shown that both the amplitudes of the NAO and NPO increase obviously in the 1960’s and the main period of the oscillations changes from 3-4 years before the 1960’s to 8–15 years after the 1960’s. Therefore, interdecadal climate variation in China or the climate jump in the 1960’s is closely related to the anomalies of the NAO and NPO. Key words North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) - North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) - Climate Jump - Interdecadal climate variation This work was supported by National Key Basic Science Program in China (G1998040903), Chinese Academy of Science and the National Natural Science Fundation of China (Grant No.49823002).The authors are also grateful to Ms. Wang Xuan for typing the manuscript.

Glacier Variation in Response to Climate Change in Chinese Tianshan Mountains from 1989 to 2012

Based on the 1990, 2000 and 2011 Landsat TM/ETM+ remote sensing data, glacier information of three periods in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains were extracted by using ratio threshold method(TM3/TM5) and visual interpretation, combined with digital processing of satellite images and analysis in GIS. The climate data in the surrounding area were analyzed by using linear regression, Mann-Kendall abrupt test, and Morlet wavelet analysis. Study results showed that: over the 23 years investigation, the glacier areas have markedly decreased. In the last 12 years(2000 to 2011), the rate of retreat has begun to accelerate. The most dramatic glacier shrinkage occurred in the central region, the lowest in the eastern region. The mean summer temperature and warm precipitation in Chinese Tianshan Mountains had an increasing trend, with rates of 0.22°C /10 a and 5.1mm/10 a from 1960 to 2011, respectively. Mean summer temperature have experienced a strong increase in 1998. The analysis of the results showed that the rise of mean summer temperature was the main factor that contributed to glacier shrinkage. Regional differences of glacier area changes were investigated by analyzing glacier behavior in five study sub-regions; regional differences are related to local climate, to the relative proportion of glaciers in different size classes, altitudinal and aspect distribution of glaciated areas. In addition, the lag theory indicated that glaciers may accelerate the retreat in the next decade, considering climate trends recognized for the period 2000-2011.

Spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of the fog regions in China

The spatial distribution and monthly/annual variation of foggy days in China are analyzed based on the monthly mean fog data collected from 604 observational stations for the period 1961-2000. Results show that there are six fog regions in China： the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, coastal areas, Yunnan-Gulzhou Plateau, eastern Gansu-Shaanxi region, Huaihe River valley, Tianshan mountainous area and northern Xinjiang. On the whole the interannual variation trend of foggy days is descending, especially an obvious decline after the 1980s. The areas where the foggy days have obvious tendency present a southwest-northeast direction. The rising trend regions alternate with descending trend regions, forming a SE-NW directional wave structure. In general, the number of foggy days in autumn and winter is larger than in spring and summer over most fog regions. The monthly variation curves of foggy days are bimodal in the coastal area of the Yellow Sea and northern Xinjiang, and unimodal in other regions.

Identification and analysis of root causes of desertification in semi-arid region of China──a case study from Ejin Horo Banner, Inner Mongolia

A case study on the driving forces of desertification in the semi-arid region was carried out in the Ejin Horo Banner of Inner Mongolia. The occurrence and development of desertification were demonstrated and its driving factors were identified and analyzed. The results obtained indicated that over-reclamation of land overgrazing and denudation of natural vegetation cover were immediate and dominant factors causing land vulnerability to desertification. For a better understanding of the deep-rooted causes of the inappropriate land use and agricultural practices, the problems arising from various socioeconomic facets were comprehensively discussed.

Effect of Aspect on Climate Variation in Mountain Ranges of Shennongjia Massif, Central China

The aim of this study was to better understand the mechanisms of regional climate variation in mountain ranges with contrasting aspects as mediated by changes in global climate. It may help predict trends of vegetation variations in native ecosystems in natural reserves. As measures of climate response, temperature and precipitation data from the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges of Shennongjia Massif in the coldest and hottest months(January and July), different seasons(spring, summer, autumn, and winter) and each year were analyzed from a long-term dataset(1960 to 2003) to tested variations characteristics, temporal and spatial quantitative relationships of climates. The results showed that the average seasonal temperatures and precipitation in the north, east, and south aspects of the mountain ranges changed at different rates. The average seasonal temperatures change rate ranges in the north, east, and south-facing mountain ranges were from –0.0210℃/yr to 0.0143℃/yr, –0.0166℃/yr to 0.0311℃/yr, and –0.0290 ℃/yr to 0.0084℃/yr, respectively, and seasonal precipitation variation magnitude were from –1.4940 mm/yr to 0.6217 mm/yr, –1.6833 mm/yr to 2.6182 mm/yr, and –0.8567 mm/yr to 1.4077 mm/yr, respectively. The climates variation trend among the three mountain ranges were different in magnitude and direction, showing a complicated change of the climates in mountain ranges and some inconsistency with general trends in global climate change. The climate variations were significantly different and positively correlated cross mountain ranges, revealing that aspects significantly affected on climate variations and these variations resulted from a larger air circulation system, which were sensitive to global climate change. We conclude that location and terrain of aspect are the main factors affecting differences in climate variation among the mountain ranges with contrasting aspects.

Multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological changes in central Karakoram, Pakistan

The multi-model assessment of glacio-hydrological regimes can enhance our understanding of glacier response to climate change.This improved knowledge can uplift our computing abilities to estimate the contributing components of the river discharge.This study examined and compared the hydrological responses in the glacier-dominated Shigar River basin(SRB)under various climatic scenarios using a semi-distributed Modified Positive Degree Day Model(MPDDM)and a distributed Glacio-hydrological Degree-day Model(GDM).Both glacio-hydrological models were calibrated and validated against the observed hydro-meteorological data from 1988–1992 and 1993–1997.Temperature and precipitation data from Shigar and Skardu meteorological stations were used along with field estimated degree-day factor,temperature,and precipitation gradients.The results from both models indicate that the snow and ice melt are vital contributors to sustain river flow in the catchment.However,MPDDM estimated 68%of rain and baseflow contribution to annual river runoff despite low precipitation during the summer monsoon,while GDM estimated 14%rain and baseflow contribution.Likewise,MPDDM calculated 32%,and GDM generated 86%of the annual river runoff from snow and ice melt.MPDDM simulated river discharge with 0.86 and 0.78 NSE for calibration and validation,respectively.Similarly,GDM simulated river discharge with improved accuracy of 0.87 for calibration and 0.84 NSE for the validation period.The snow and ice melt is significant in sustaining river flow in the SRB,and substantial changes in melt characteristics of snow and ice are expected to have severe consequences on seasonal water availability.Based on the sensitivity analysis,both models’outputs are highly sensitive to the variation in temperature.Furthermore,compared to MPDDM,GDM simulated considerable variation in the river discharge in climate scenarios,RCP4.5 and 8.5,mainly due to the higher sensitivity of GDM model outputs to temperature change.The integration of an updated melt module and two reservoir baseflow module in GDM is anticipated to advance the representation of hydrological components,unlike one reservoir baseflow module used separately in MPDDM.The restructured melt and baseflow modules in GDM have fundamentally enriched our perception of glacio-hydrological dynamics in the catchment.