Normalized interventions were implemented in different cities in China to contain the outbreak of COVID-19 before December 2022.However,the differences in the intensity and timeliness of the implementations lead to di...Normalized interventions were implemented in different cities in China to contain the outbreak of COVID-19 before December 2022.However,the differences in the intensity and timeliness of the implementations lead to differences in final size of the infections.Taking the outbreak of COVID-19 in three representative cities Xi'an,Zhengzhou and Yuzhou in January 2022,as examples,we develop a compartmental model to describe the spread of novel coronavirus and implementation of interventions to assess concretely the effectiveness of Chinese interventions and explore their impact on epidemic patterns.After applying reported human confirmed cases to verify the rationality of the model,we apply the model to speculate transmission trend and length of concealed period at the initial spread phase of the epidemic(they are estimated as 10.5,7.8,8.2 days,respectively),to estimate the range of basic reproduction number(2.9,0.7,1.6),and to define two indexes(transmission rate vt and controlled rate vc)to evaluate the overall effect of the interventions.It is shown that for Zhengzhou,vc is always more than v t with regular interventions,and Xi'an take 8 days to achieve vc>v t twice as long as Yuzhou,which can interpret the fact that the epidemic situation in Xi'an was more severe.By carrying out parameter values,it is concluded that in the early stage,strengthening the precision of close contact tracking and frequency of large-scale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population are the most effective on controlling the outbreaks and reducing final size.And,if the close contact tracking strategy is sufficiently implemented,at the late stage largescale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population is not essential.展开更多
基金supported by Fund Program for the Scientific Activities of Selected Returned Overseas Professionals in Shanxi Province(20210009)the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant(11801398)+1 种基金the 1331 Engineering Project of Shanxi Province,Key Projects of Health Commission of Shanxi Province(No.2020XM18)the Key Research and Development Project in Shanxi Province(202003D31011/GZ).
文摘Normalized interventions were implemented in different cities in China to contain the outbreak of COVID-19 before December 2022.However,the differences in the intensity and timeliness of the implementations lead to differences in final size of the infections.Taking the outbreak of COVID-19 in three representative cities Xi'an,Zhengzhou and Yuzhou in January 2022,as examples,we develop a compartmental model to describe the spread of novel coronavirus and implementation of interventions to assess concretely the effectiveness of Chinese interventions and explore their impact on epidemic patterns.After applying reported human confirmed cases to verify the rationality of the model,we apply the model to speculate transmission trend and length of concealed period at the initial spread phase of the epidemic(they are estimated as 10.5,7.8,8.2 days,respectively),to estimate the range of basic reproduction number(2.9,0.7,1.6),and to define two indexes(transmission rate vt and controlled rate vc)to evaluate the overall effect of the interventions.It is shown that for Zhengzhou,vc is always more than v t with regular interventions,and Xi'an take 8 days to achieve vc>v t twice as long as Yuzhou,which can interpret the fact that the epidemic situation in Xi'an was more severe.By carrying out parameter values,it is concluded that in the early stage,strengthening the precision of close contact tracking and frequency of large-scale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population are the most effective on controlling the outbreaks and reducing final size.And,if the close contact tracking strategy is sufficiently implemented,at the late stage largescale nucleic acid testing of non-quarantined population is not essential.
