Identification of Strong Earthquake Sites in Hebei Region by Making Use of Cluster Method

The Cluster and Hamming methods are used in this paper for a comprehensive study on geology,geomorphology,geophysical field,crustal deformation,active faults,regional stress axes and their relation in Hebei region.Fourteen potential seismic zones in which shocks with M≥6 may happen have been identified.Shocks with M≥6 have occurred in seven of them,and the others have been considered as a future strong earthquake areas.Both the K value and testing of deleting nodes show the stability of results obtained in this paper.The potential seismic zones identified in the paper fall into the areas of marked risk areas within 10 years in North China,but the scale of the identified zones is smaller.The Datong-Yanggao earthquake with M-6.1 occurred in October 1989 precisely in the 14th potential seismic zone mentioned above.

Methods for Estimating Mean Annual Rate of Earthquakes in Moderate and Low Seismicity Regions

Two kinds of methods for determining seismic parameters are presented, that is, the potential seismic source zoning method and grid-spatially smoothing method. The Gaussian smoothing method and the modified Gaussian smoothing method are described in detail, and a comprehensive analysis of the advantages and disadvantages of these methods is made. Then, we take centrai China as the study region, and use the Gaussian smoothing method and potential seismic source zoning method to build seismic models to calculate the mean annual seismic rate. Seismic hazard is calculated using the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis method to construct the ground motion acceleration zoning maps. The differences between the maps and these models are discussed and the causes are investigated. The results show that the spatial smoothing method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard over the moderate and low seismicity regions or the hazard caused by background seismicity; while the potential seismic source zoning method is suitable for estimating the seismic hazard in well-defined seismotectonics. Combining the spatial smoothing method and the potential seismic source zoning method with an integrated account of the seismicity and known seismotectonics is a feasible approach to estimate the seismic hazard in moderate and low seismicity regions.

中强地震活动区地震年平均发生率确定方法的比较

目前确定地震活动性参数的方法有2种,即潜在震源区划分法和格点空间光滑法。本文针对格点空间光滑法,重点介绍了高斯空间光滑法及其改进后的方法,并对比分析了这些方法的优缺点及适用性;然后以华中为研究区,分别采用高斯空间光滑法和潜在震源区法建立地震活动性模型计算地震年平均发生率,并利用概率地震危险性分析方法计算地震危险性,对比两种方法所得区划结果的差异并分析了引起差异的原因。结果表明:空间光滑法适用于中强地震活动区地震危险性或由背景地震引起的地震危险性的计算;潜在震源区划分法适用于考虑明确的发震构造的地震危险性。将2种方法相结合,综合考虑地震和已知构造信息是判断中强地震活动区地震危险性的可行方法。

基于未确知均值聚类分析的砂土地震液化评价

基于未确知测度理论,建立了砂土地震液化判别和液化势分级的未确知均值聚类分析模型和方法。针对砂土地震液化评价中的许多不确定性影响因素,选用地震震级,地面地震加速度幅值,标准贯入击数,比贯入阻力,砂土相对密实度,砂土平均粒径和场地地下水位等7个评价指标作为判别因子;选用17个砂土样本作为训练样本,建立各评价指标的未确知测度函数,以样本中的各评价指标数据的平均值表示其分类中心;利用相似权赋权方法确定评价指标的权重,依据未确知测度距离判别地震液化等级;根据建立的模型对训练样本回判,回判正确率为94.12%。将建立的模型对20个测试样本进行判别,将判别结果与地震液化的实际情况、BP神经网络和SOFM神经网络等方法的评价结果进行了对比。研究表明,该模型的评价结果与实测结果,以及BP神经网络、SOFM神经网络等方法的评判结果一致性较高。