Assessing the Regional Economic Ripple Effect of Flood Disasters Based on a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Considering Traffic Disruptions

With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.

基于马尔可夫与传染病模型的供应链网络中断风险传播研究

供应链网络中断会导致企业运营能力受损,中断风险传播引发的连锁反应会进一步危害供应链网络的整体绩效。本文从供应链运营能力视角,刻画供应链网络中断风险传播过程。将企业运营能力结合中断程度细分为五个状态,并利用离散时间马尔可夫链和动态贝叶斯网络模拟个体企业运营能力变化情形。根据企业五种运营状态将其划分为易感、潜伏、轻症、重症以及免疫个体,构建企业在潜伏期、轻症和重症感染期均具传染性的中断风险传播动力学模型。进一步探讨系统稳定状态时关联企业密度及中断风险传染临界值及其影响因素。对企业状态的细分,有助于更精准地把握运营能力,更细腻地描述中断风险在供应链网络中的传播规律。所得中断风险传播规律不仅有助于企业更清晰地认识自身及所处供应链环境的运营状态,而且能为企业据其状态变化实时更换中断风险管控策略提供依据。本文结合中断程度对企业状态进行细化描述的做法,可为研究企业状态连续时的中断风险传播规律研究提供思路。

随机需求和生产成本同时扰动下的供应链波及效应

研究数量折扣契约实现协调的两级供应链。研究发现,当突发事件造成零售商面临的市场需求发生变化和供应商的生产成本产生波动时,如果不采取任何应对措施或仅是调整批发价格,那么供应链的协调性将会被打破。为此提出了针对随机需求和生产成本扰动下的波及效应的最优应对策略,并改进数量折扣契约使其能重新协调供应链。

集群式供应链的功能效应分析

集群式供应链是产业集群和供应链之间的耦合组织形式。本文对集群式供应链这种新型的组织形式,从现实背景出发对集群式供应链的概念进行了阐述,并对其功能效应进行分析,这为集群式供应链这种新型组织方式的研究奠定了基础。

基于管理集成的产业集聚与供应链联盟的协同发展研究

产业集聚已开始成为经济发展的主流,供应链联盟能有效地提高供应链的市场竞争力。两者均立足于自身优势的发挥,但其联盟可产生协同发展的效应。我国企业应以形成集聚体内完整的产业链融入国际化的大企业供应链联盟,并朝着网络化方向发展,进而形成具有国际竞争优势的区域经济系统。

集聚供应链扰动风险与应对管理策略

针对供应链扰动风险及集聚供应链的概念进行的总结,设计集聚供应链利润模型,并提出以利润波及效应测度供应链扰动风险的方式,集聚供应链扰动风险的相关应对策略:加快集聚产业升级;探究产业风险源头;建立风险预警指标体系;成立风险预警专家小组;弱化行政直接干预;推动衰退产业有序转移。

供应链中断:成因、后果及对策——供应链治理视角下的文献述评

当前世界政治经济进入新的变革期,经济发展环境的复杂性、严峻性、不确定性上升,各类突发事件使得供应链中断风险大大增加。通过对相关文献的梳理和总结,本文把供应链中断状态界定为面向市场的交付中断发生。为保障供应链畅通的安全,防止交付中断形成、加快中断后的恢复,本文将治理视角与供应链中断问题相结合,以增强供应链弹性和韧性为目标,理清供应链中断的外部、内部风险因素传导过程;总结供应链中断可能对链上企业及社会带来的后果,并揭示供应链中断严重性与供应链弹性、韧性抗衡下存在供应链中断后果扩大的可能;提出供应链内外协调治理对策,指出多主体参与、全方位、全流程治理的重要性。基于有关供应链中断的治理研究现状提出未来的研究方向,并立足中国国情与国际供应链发展趋势,探索新时期供应链中断的治理重点。