Co-integration Analysis on the Relationship between Methane Energy Development and Economic Growth in the City of Huixian

Based on the statistical data of Huixian from 1992 to 2010, we analyze the long-term and short-term relationship between Huixian's methane energy development and GDP by using co-integration test and error correction model. The empirical results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between methane energy and GDP in the city of Huixian, and which is the one-way Granger causality of methane and GDP. In conclusion, the paper puts forward some steps about spurring economic growth, methane development and utilization in Huixian.

Co-integration Analysis of the Relationship between Residents' Consumer Spending and GDP in Hubei Province

In accordance with the economic data from Statistical Communique on National Economy and Social Development in Hubei Province in the period 1980-2009, we use co-integration analysis method to research the impact of GDP growth on residents' consumer spending. Result shows that although there are differences between GDP and residents' consumer spending in the short term, the equilibrium relationship exists between them, namely, the co-integration relationship, showing consistency in trends.

Co-Integration Models for Koyna and Warna Reservoirs, India

Koyna region, a seismically active region, has many time series observations such as seismicity, reservoir water levels, and many bore well water levels. One of these series is used to predict others since these parameters are interlinked. If these series were stationary, we used correlation analysis. However, it is seen that maximum of these time series are nonstationary. In this case, co-integration method is used that is extracted from econometrics and forecast is possible. We have applied this methodology to study time series of reservoir water levels of this region and we find them to be co-integrated. Therefore, forecast of water levels for one of the reservoir is done from the other as these will never drift apart too much. The outcomes demonstrate that a joint modelling of both data sets based on underlying physics resolves to be sparingly useful for understanding predictability issues in reservoir induced seismicity.

Co-integration Analysis of the Relationship between New Product Output and R&D Investment in China’s Pharmaceutical Industry

Objective To study the possible relationship between the output of new products in China’s pharmaceutical industry and the investment in research and development(R&D),and to provide a theoretical basis for the decision-making of relevant enterprises and institutions.Methods The econometric software Stata 14 was used to perform unit root test on the relevant data.Then,a co-integration regression equation was established after stabilization,which was analyzed through co-integration test(E-G two-step method).Results and Conclusion There is a long-term equilibrium and short-term error correction relationship between the output of new products and the investment of R&D funds in China’s pharmaceutical industry.During the lagging periods from 1 to 6,R&D investment is the Granger reason for the output of new products.The investment of R&D funds has a positive effect on the output of new products and the effect is significant.Therefore,more investment should be made in R&D to enhance the output of new products.

Economics,fundamentals,technology,finance,speculation and geopolitics of crude oil prices:an econometric analysis and forecast based on data from 1990 to 2017

It is of real and direct significance for China to cope with oil price fluctuations and ensure oil security. This paper aims to quantitatively analyze the specific contribution ratios of the complex factors influencing international crude oil prices and to establish crude oil price models to forecast long-term international crude oil prices. Six explanatory influential variables, namely Dow Jones Indexes, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development oil stocks, US rotary rig count, US dollar index, total open interest, which is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of each day, and geopolitical instability are specified, and the samples, from January 1990 to August 2017, are divided into six sub-periods. Moreover, the co-integration relationship among variables shows that the contribution ratios of all the variables influencing Brent crude oil prices are in accordance with the corresponding qualitative analysis. Furthermore, from September 2017 to December 2022 outside of the sample, the Vector Autoregressive forecasts show that annually averaged Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $61.3, $74.4, $90.0, $105.5, and $120.7 per barrel, respectively. The Vector Error Correction forecasts show that annual average Brent crude oil prices for 2017-2022 would be $53.0, $56.5, $58.5, $60.7, $63.0 and $65.4 per barrel, respectively.

Research on the Relationship between Income and Consumption of the Urban Residents in Hunan Province on the Basis of Error Correction Model

By using error correction model, I conduct co-integration analysis on the research of the relationship between the per capita practical consumption and per capita practical disposable income of urban residents in Hunan Province from 1978 to 2009. The results show that there is a co-integration relationship between the per capita practical consumption and the practical per capita disposable income of urban residents, and based on these, the corresponding error correction model is established. Finally, corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward as follows: broaden the income channel of urban residents; create goods consuming environment; perfect socialist security system.

Synthesis of Nonlinear Control of Switching Topologies of Buck-Boost Converter Using Fuzzy Logic on Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA)

An intelligent fuzzy logic inference pipeline for the control of a dc-dc buck-boost converter was designed and built using a semi-custom VLSI chip. The fuzzy linguistics describing the switching topologies of the converter was mapped into a look-up table that was synthesized into a set of Boolean equations. A VLSI chip–a field programmable gate array (FPGA) was used to implement the Boolean equations. Features include the size of RAM chip independent of number of rules in the knowledge base, on-chip fuzzification and defuzzification, faster response with speeds over giga fuzzy logic inferences per sec (FLIPS), and an inexpensive VLSI chip. The key application areas are: 1) on-chip integrated controllers;and 2) on-chip co-integration for entire system of sensors, circuits, controllers, and detectors for building complete instrument systems.

Correlation analysis and causality test between Ludong-Huanghai block and South Japan

In this paper, we make a comparative analysis and correlation test for the seismic activities in the South Japan and the Ludong-Huanghai block （a secondary tectonic unit in the North China） and approach the relationship between the energy release processes of these two areas by using co-integration analysis and Granger causality test for the time series of random variables. The results show that the seismic activities in these two areas are correlative and synchronous to a certain extent, and their release series of cumulative strain energy are contemporaneously correlative. Both energy series are first-order difference stationary processes and there is secular and steady co-integration between them. We make a positive analysis on the first-order difference energy series through Granger causality test based on vector error correction （VEC） model and find there is unilateral Granger causality and prominent co-integration between the two energy release processes.

Relationship Between Agricultural Credits and Agricultural Economy Based on Error Correct Model in Heilongjiang Province

Heilongjiang is a large agriculture province.Problems of agriculture,rural areas and farmers are urgent to be solved.The development of agriculture needs the support of agricultural credits,because finance is the center of agriculture economy.However,the low comparative advantage in agriculture and pursuit of the capital interests which aggravate the conflicts of supply and demand of agricultural funds.Lacking of fund is the main factor that constrains the development of agricultural economy.In order to analyze the economic effect of agricultural credits on agricultural economy,an error correction model was set up to research the relationship between them,which based on the least square methods.Through the study of the contribution from agricultural credits to total value of agricultural out-put,the empirical evidence for developing the rural financial vigorously was provided,in order to promote the agricultura leconomic development.

Influence of Sino-US Agricultural Trade on China’s Total Agricultural Output Value Based on Cointegration Model

According to the data of the total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States from 2009 to 2018 and the general description of agriculture in China,this paper adopts the method of econometric model to make a detailed analysis of the agricultural trade between China and the United States by using cointegration analysis,Granger causality test and error correction model in order to explore the impact of agricultural trade between China and the United States on China’s agricultural development. The results of empirical analysis show that there is a balanced relationship between the trade of agricultural products between China and the United States and the development of agriculture in China. The total trade of agricultural products between China and the United States affects the development of China’s agriculture.In addition,in the short term,if the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,then the error correction term will reverse it with strength of 0. 378,so that the non-equilibrium state will gradually return to the equilibrium state.

Time Series Analysis of Energy Intensity, Value Added Tax and Corporate Income Tax: A Case Study of the Non-Ferrous Metal Industry, Jiangxi Province, China

Unprecedented industrialization and urbanization have led to China’s poor energy efficiency. In response, the Chinese government has set goals to reduce energy consumption that may include implementing new tax policies. In this paper, we investigate the relationship between energy intensity, an indicator that measures the efficiency of energy consumption, and two sources of government revenue in China (i.e., value-added tax (VAT) and corporate income tax). As a case study, we developed a Granger co-integration model to analyze the dynamic relationship of energy intensity, VAT and corporate income tax in the non-ferrous metal industry, Jiangxi Province, China, between 1996 and 2010. Augmented Dickey-Fuller tests were used to validate the model. In our time series analyses, we found when controlling for corporate income tax, a one log unit increase of VAT resulted in a decrease of 1.17 log units of energy intensity. However, when controlling for VAT, a one log unit increase of corporate income tax resulted in an increase of 0.34 log units of energy intensity. Understanding the relationship between energy intensity and taxation in industries that consume high volumes of energy can greatly enhance China’s goal to reduce energy consumption. We believe our findings add to this on-going discussion.

Economic Growth and CO₂-Emissions: What If Vietnam Followed China’s Development Path?

Vietnam and China both are quickly emerging market economies in Asia. China has had an unprecedented economic growth in Asia for the past 30 years. Also, Vietnam’s GDP is increasing, but more slowly. However, Vietnam is starting to catch up. Against this background, this article assesses the question what the economic and environmental impacts in Vietnam would be, if the country followed China’s development path. Based on econometric analysis, it is shown that currently, Vietnam is lagging behind China in terms of economic growth for 11 years. Although Vietnam and China have a similar primary energy mix in the early 1980s, China is still massively relying on coal, whereas Vietnam starts to develop hydro power in the late 1980s on large scale. Due to a quick growth of per-capita income, per capita emissions in China are already catching up with those of North-European economies such as Denmark, Finland and Germany. The question arises, what if Vietnam followed China’s development path. Using econometric models of GDP and CO2-emissions, two scenarios for Vietnam are analyzed, a scenario following China’s development path and one alternative scenario pursuing the current development patterns until 2050. The results show that the additional impact of following China’s economic development path is minor. Vietnam would only have a 0.5% percentage point per annum higher GDP growth. In other words, Vietnam would grow relatively quickly anyway. However, following China’s development path also in terms of high CO2-emissions per capita, would increase the growth of CO2-emissions in Vietnam by 2.3 percentage points per annum and would lead to an increase of CO2-emissions in 2050 by 2.6 bn. tons compared with the scenario in which Vietnam sticks to its own development patterns. However, in that case, Vietnam also had a 25% lower per capita income compared with the scenario following China’s development path. Here, the people and government in Vietnam have to make a strategic choice.

Empirical Analysis on Effect of Agricultural Financial Investment on Increase of Farmers' Income

On the basis of economic data from 1978 to 2006,the co-integration theory is applied to discuss the relation between agricultural financial investment and farmers' income.The statistic AR model is obtained.Then,it makes pulse response analysis in combination with principle of pulse response analysis.The regression results show that support in agricultural production,various agricultural operating expenses and three types of costs for agricultural science and technology are favorable to farmers' income,while expenditure in agricultural capital construction and rural relief costs hinder increase of farmers' income.The results of pulse response analysis indicate that the change in support of agricultural production and various agricultural operating expenses have positive impact on farmers' net income,and the impact is greater and greater from the second year;the response of expenditure in agricultural capital construction and rural relief cost is positive in the beginning and starts to fluctuate from the third year;the pulse response of three types of costs for agricultural science and technology is negative,lasts about five periods,and then turns to positive impact.Finally,combining characteristics of China's financial support for agriculture,it concludes that the scale,proportion and structure of financial support for agriculture are quite improper.

Analysis of the Relationship Between GDP and FDI on the Economic Growth of Laos

In the current globalization stream,the foreign investment is an important role not only for developed country but at all especially the least developing country as Laos.This study aims to examine the relationship between the gross domestic product(GDP)and foreign direct investment(FDI)on economic growth of Laos by using data from 1985 to 2014.The long run relationship was analyzed by Johansen co-integration test and estimated the speed of adjustment by Vector Error Correction approach.Estimated results indicated that there was long run relationship running from FDI to GDP and the relation would return to the equilibrium in about 19 when it occurred.This study suggests that policy maker should improve the other factor for motivated FDI and accelerate Lao economy.

Relationship between the price of green tea and black tea of the world’s major tea countries

Black tea and green tea are the most important tea in the world.In this paper we analyze the relationship of the world green price and black tea price.The results show that:in the world tea markets,the world black tea price and the world green tea price have no co-integration,independent of the curve segmentation.In the major green tea countries,there are co-integration relationships between China and Japan,China and Brazil,Japan and Brazil,while Vietnam has a first-order stationary sequence.In the major black tea countries,Sri Lanka and India have no co-integration,Sri Lanka and Indonesia no co-integration,India and Indonesia no co-integration,Sri Lanka and Kenya have co-integration,India and Kenya have co-integration,Kenya and Indonesia have co-integration.

Research on Prediction of the Scale of OTC Drug Market in China Based on Quantitative Analysis

Objective To analyze the scale of domestic OTC drug market and its influencing factors,so as to predict its future market and provide a scientific basis for pharmaceutical enterprises to grasp the opportunities in the market.Methods The scale of OTC drug market from 1999 to 2018 in China and its influencing factors were analyzed by unit root test,Granger causality test and co-integration test.Results and Conclusion From the perspective of the global pharmaceutical market,OTC drug market has broad prospects and great development potential.Since the influence of GDP and the number of elderly populations on the scale of OTC drug market is positive,the predicted growth rate of OTC market in the next three years is 5.82%,5.86%and 5.90%,respectively.

Research on the Relationship between Cooperation Innovation Expenditure and Economic Output of China’s Pharmaceutical Industry

Objective To empirically analyze the relationship between cooperation innovation expenditure and economic output of China’s pharmaceutical industry,and provide a reference for improving its economic benefits and the capability of cooperation innovation in the future.Methods The relevant data of China’s pharmaceutical industry from 2000 to 2016 was selected as a sample.Based on the co-integration theory,an error correction model was established to conduct Granger test of causality to study the relationship between cooperation innovation expenditure and economic output of China’s pharmaceutical industry.Results and Conclusion The cooperation innovation expenditure of China’s pharmaceutical industry has a significant positive impact on economic output.If cooperation innovation expenditure increases 1%,its economic output will go up by 1.7%.At the same time,the long-term promotion effect of cooperation innovation expenditure on economic output is more significant than the short-term effect.

Research on the Relationship between Export Orientation and R&D Investment of China’s Pharmaceutical Industry in Different Regions

Objective To study the relationship between export orientation and research and development(R&D)investment so as to provide suggestions and references for improving the R&D investment level and innovation capabilities of pharmaceutical industry due to the progress of globalization and the continuous development of export trade of China’s pharmaceutical industry.Methods The relevant data of China’s pharmaceutical industry from 2001 to 2016 was selected to establish an error correction model based on the co-integration theory,and then the Granger causality test was conducted to determine the relationship between the export orientation and R&D investment of China’s pharmaceutical industry in different regions.Results and Conclusion It is found that the export orientation of the pharmaceutical industry in different regions has a significant negative impact on the investment of R&D.Among them,the middle region has the greatest impact,followed by the eastern and western regions.The export orientation of the pharmaceutical industry in the middle region has a lag effect on R&D investment,and the lag phase is two years.

Relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth of Guangdong Province in China

Guangdong is a electricity consumption （EC） province with the most and the fastest economic growth in China. However, there has long been a contradiction between electricity supply and demand in Guangdong and this trend may exist for a long time in the foreseeable future. Therefore, the research on the relation ship between EC and economic growth of Guangdong is of very important practical significance to the formulation of relevant policy. In this paper, the econometrics method of granger causality test and cointegration test is used to analyze the relationship between EC and economic growth of Guangdong from 1978 to 2010. The results indicate that there is unidirectional causality between the economic growth and the EC, and the growth of gross domestic product （GDP） and gross industrial output value （GIOV） is the impetus to promote the growth of installed capacity （ICAP） and the EC. Therefore, the appropriate restraint of excessive growth of power industry will not necessarily slow down economic growth. There has been a longterm stable equilibrium relationship between the EC and the economic growth. When the GDP and GIOV grows I unit respectively, the EC of Guangdong province will increase 0.97 and 0.64 unit respectively. The longterm marginal utility of the EC is more than 1.

Energy Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus in Bangladesh

The empirical investigation that examines the dynamics including the interaction between consumption of energy and economic progress has long been assessed.However,the interaction of these two in developing countries in general and Bangladesh,in particular,is a less explored subject.Hence,with this notion,this study examined the causal relationship among economic growth and energy consumption in Bangladesh.For this purpose,the study used energy consumption,gross domestic product(GDP),labor force,and capital data from 1981 to 2017 from different sources and data is analyzed by augmented Dickey-Fuller(ADF)unit root test,Johansen co-integration test and Granger test of causality.Results determine that energy consumption and economic growth have long term bi-directional relationship.The econometric model is estimated using generalized least squares(GLS)model.It is concluded that,consumption of energy and economic growth positively correlated and economic development highly depend on energy consumption in Bangladesh.