Potential Distribution of Alien Invasive Species and Risk Assessment:a Case Study of Erwinia amylovora in China

Alien invasive species represent a severe risk to biodiversity and economy, as in the case of fire blight （Erwinia amylovora）, a bacterial disease that originated in North America, which may be released into new locations by means of fruit trade. On the basis of the knowledge of Erwinia amylovora＇s biophysical characteristics and environmental data, the geographic information system （GIS） has been applied to determine areas where Erwinia amylovora can potentially invade China. Temperature and precipitation, during the blossoming period, are considered to be two critical factors affecting the Erwinia amylovora＇s suitable climatic zones. This spatial modeling approach was validated from a case study in Europe, where the occurrence of Erwinia amylovora has been proven. The model prediction agreed with the occurrence of the bacteria recorded in Europe, and the same procedure has been applied to produce a potential establishment area in China＇s two preferential apple cultivation regions, Bohai Bay region and Huangtu Altiplano region. It has been found that areas belonging to the high-risk category are more or less the main apple producing areas, accounting for their great economic importance in China. This methodology provides an initial baseline for assessment, prevention, and management of alien species that may become invasive under certain environmental conditions. In addition, this modeling approach provides a tool for policy makers to use, in making decisions on management practices where alien species are involved.

Gold Resources Potential Assessment in Eastern Kunlun Mountains of China Combining Weights-of-evidence Model with GIS Spatial Analysis Technique

Resources potential assessment is one of the fields in geosciences,which is able to take great advantage of GIS technology as a substitution of traditional working methods.The gold resources potential in the eastern Kunlun Mountains,Qinghai Province,China was assessed by combining weights-of-evidence model with GIS spatial analysis technique.All the data sets used in this paper were derived from an established multi-source geological spatial database,which contains geological,geophysical,geochemical and remote sensing data.Three multi-class variables,i.e.,structural intersection,Indosinian k-feldspar granite and regional fault,were used in proximity analysis to examine their spatial association with known gold deposits.A prospectivity map was produced by weights-of-evidence model based on seven binary evidential maps,all of which had passed a conditional independence test.The study area was divided into three target zones of high potential,moderate potential and low potential areas,among which high potential areas and moderate potential areas accounted for 20% of the total area and contained 32 of the 43 gold deposits.The results show that the gold resources potential assessment in the eastern Kunlun Mountains has a higher precision.

Potentially toxic metal concentration,spatial distribution,and health risk assessment in drinking groundwater resources of southeast Iran

In this study, the concentration and spatial distribution of potentially toxic metals(PTMs), including arsenic(As), cadmium(Cd), chromium(Cr), lead(Pb), copper(Cu), iron(Fe), manganese(Mn), and magnesium(Mg) in 23 wells and drinking groundwater distribution networks of Rafsanjan, located in southeast Iran were evaluated. Moreover, the assessment of carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks was estimated by Monte Carlo simulation(MCS). The results showed that the concentrations of As and Pb in more than 99% and 23.46% of the study area, respectively, were higher than the maximum concentration level(10 μg/L). The mean concentration of other metals, including Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mg, and Mn in all drinking water resources was within the WHO standard level. The mean hazard quotient(HQ) for As in the age group of children was 9.246 and adults 2.972, indicating high non-carcinogenic risk of As in the study area. The lifetime cancer risk(LTCR) of As was 1.36 E-3 for adults and 1.52 E-2 for children, indicating high non-carcinogenic risk of As. The level of HQ and LTCR for Pb in both age groups was in the acceptable range. The results of sensitivity analysis showed that the most effective variables were pollutant concentration and body weight(BW), respectively. Finally, it can be concluded that exposure to PTMs, especially As through drinking water in the study area can have significant effects on people’s health living in the area;therefore, it is necessary to treat and remove As from groundwater resources before drinking or using for domestic purpose.

Assessment of wind energy potential in China

China wind atlas was made by numerical simulation and the wind energy potential in China was calculated. The model system for wind energy resource assessment was set up based on Canadian Wind Energy Simulating Toolkit (WEST) and the simulating method was as follows. First, the weather classes were obtained depend on meteorological data of 30 years. Then, driven by the initial meteorological field produced by each weather class, the meso-scale model ran for the distribution of wind energy resources according each weather class condition one by one. Finally, averaging all the modeling output weighted by the occurrence frequency of each weather class, the annual mean distribution of wind energy resources was worked out. Compared the simulated wind energy potential with other results from several activities and studies for wind energy resource assessment, it is found that the simulated wind energy potential in mainland of China is 3 times that from the second and the third investigations for wind energy resources by CMA, and is similar to the wind energy potential obtained by NREL in Solar and Wind Energy Resource Assessment(SWERA) project. The simulated offshore wind energy potential of China seems smaller than the true value. According to the simulated results of CMA and considering lots of limited factors to wind energy development, the final conclusion can be obtained that the wind energy availability in China is 700～1 200 GW, in which 600～1 000 GW is in mainland and 100～200 GW is on offshore, and wind power will become the important part of energy composition in future.

Potential assessment of CO_(2)geological storage based on injection scenario simulation:A case study in eastern Junggar Basin

Carbon Capture and Storage(CCS)is one of the effective means to deal with global warming,and saline aquifer storage is considered to be the most promising storage method.Junggar Basin,located in the northern part of Xinjiang and with a large distribution area of saline aquifer,is an effective carbon storage site.Based on well logging data and 2D seismic data,a 3D heterogeneous geological model of the Cretaceous Donggou Formation reservoir near D7 well was constructed,and dynamic simulations under two scenarios of single-well injection and multi-well injection were carried out to explore the storage potential and CO2 storage mechanism of deep saline aquifer with real geological conditions in this study.The results show that within 100 km^(2)of the saline aquifer of Donggou Formation in the vicinity of D7 well,the theoretical static CO_(2)storage is 71.967×106 tons(P50)①,and the maximum dynamic CO_(2)storage is 145.295×106 tons(Case2).The heterogeneity of saline aquifer has a great influence on the spatial distribution of CO_(2)in the reservoir.The multi-well injection scenario is conducive to the efficient utilization of reservoir space and safer for storage.Based on the results from theoretical static calculation and the dynamic simulation,the effective coefficient of CO_(2)storage in deep saline aquifer in the eastern part of Xinjiang is recommended to be 4.9%.This study can be applied to the engineering practice of CO_(2)sequestration in the deep saline aquifer in Xinjiang.

Beat-to-Beat Variability in Field Potential Duration in Human Embryonic Stem Cell-Derived Cardiomyocyte Clusters for Assessment of Arrhythmogenic Risk, and a Case Study of Its Application

We established a QT interval assessment system that uses human embryonic stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte clusters (hES-CMCs) in which the field potential duration (FPD) or corrected FPD (FPDc) was measured as an indicator of drug-induced QT interval prolongation. To investigate the applicability of the hES-CMC system to drug safety assessment, we investigated short-term variability in FPDc (STVFPDc) (beat rate rhythmicity) as a marker of torsadogenic risk. We investigated the FPDc and STVFPDc of hES-CMCs treated with hERG channel blockers (E-4031 or cisapride) or with our proprietary compounds X, Y, and Z. We also evaluated the electrocardiograms and hemodynamics of dogs treated with compound X, Y, or Z. The torsadogenic hERG channel blockers increased STVFPDc and prolonged FPDc. Compounds X, Y, and Z had hERG inhibitory activity. Compound X prolonged FPDc with increased STVFPDc, whereas compounds Y and Z tended to shorten FPDc in the hES-CMC system. In the in vivo canine study, compound X prolonged corrected QT (QTc), and compounds Y and Z tended to shorten QTc, showing a good correlation with the results in hES-CMCs. These findings suggest that combined assessment of FPDc and STVFPDc in the hES-CMC system increases the predictability of torsadogenic risk.

Mapping desertification potential using life cycle assessment method: a case study in Lorestan Province, Iran

In recent year,desertification has become one of the most important environmental hazards all over the world,especially in developing countries such as Iran.Understanding the factors impacting on desertification and identifying the regions with high desertification potential are essential to control this phenomenon(i.e.,desertification).The life cycle assessment(LCA)method is essential in assessing the desertification of ecosystems,especially for susceptible ecosystems with high degradation risks.The aim of the present study was to evaluate the desertification potential of Lorestan Province,Iran,based on the LCA method.We selected aridity,fire and dust as three indicators of desertification and collected data from 2000 to 2015.We divided the study area into 6 types of ecoregions according to the climate types(arid,semi-arid and dry sub-humid)and dominant species(Quercus brantii and Astragalus adscendens),and calculated the characteristic factor(CF)of each indicator(aridity,fire and dust)by combining the indicator layers and ecoregion layer of the study area.In a given ecoregion,the sum of CF values of aridity,dust and fire indicators represents the life cycle inventory(LCI)desertification value(the higher the LCI value,the greater the desertification potential).Then,we obtained the desertification potential map by combining and overlapping the ecoregions and the normalized indicators based on the LCA method.Aridity and fire exhibit significant impacts on desertification in the study area compared with dust.In the study area,semi-arid ecoregion with Quercus brantii as the dominant species is the largest ecoregion,while arid ecoregion with Quercus brantii as the dominant species is the smallest ecoregion.Arid ecoregion with Astragalus adscendens as the dominant species(LCI desertification value of 1.99)and dry sub-humid ecoregion with Quercus brantii as the dominant species(LCI desertification value of 0.79)show the highest and lowest desertification potentials,respectively.Furthermore,arid ecoregion with Quercus brantii as the dominant species also has a higher LCI desertification value(1.89),showing a high desertification potential.These results suggest the necessity of proper management and appropriate utilization in these ecoregions.In general,assessing desertification potential using the LCA method on a local and regional scale can possibly provide a new methodology for identifying and protecting areas with high degradation risks.

Levels and Potential Ecological Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Sediments of Longjiang Wetland in Binzhou City

Wetland is a unique habitat with great biodiversity and important ecological functions between land and water on the earth. With the irrational utilization of wetland resources, the ecological destruction and pollution of wetland are becoming more and more serious. To evaluate the pollution of heavy metals in the sediments of Longjiang Wetland in Binzhou City, chromium(Cr), copper(Cu), zinc(Zn), cadmium(Cd) and lead(Pb) were measured by inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Concentrations of Cr, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb in the sediments were 5.3–13.6, 5.6–15.0, 16.6–33.0, 0.1–0.4 and 7.9–24.9 mg/kg dry weight, respectively. The concentrations of heavy metals in Longjiang Wetland was lower than soil background values of Shandong Province and in lower level compared with those reported in sediments/soils of wetlands in some other locations. Based on geo-accumulation index(Igeo), Cr, Cu, Zn and Pb showed low levels of contamination at all stations, while Cd was observed at a moderate pollution degree. Potential ecological risk factor(E_r^i) and risk index(RI) values showed low ecological risk of heavy metals in sediments of the wetland.

Application of Matrix Approach for Evaluation and Assessment the Potential of Recreational Ecosystem Service in Model Regions in Slovakia

Recreation and tourism are important for economic growth and human wellbeing. They are directly related to the cultural services provided by ecosystems. Recreational services, as part of tourism, have the greatest potential for development within the sector of services in the Slovak economy, and they are able to generate a significant number of new jobs especially in small rural regions. There is a gap in the literature providing assessments of geographically small regions in relation to their potential to provide different types of ecosystem services. The aim of the article was to evaluate and assess the recreational potential of ecosystem services in two small pilot regions of the Slovak Republic, Brezno district and Krupina district. Modified matrix of indices was used. Results showed that Brezno district has a higher area of ecosystems with a higher potential for recreation, therefore the conditions for recreation and tourism are much better in comparison to Krupina district. However, the use of recreation potential in Brezno district is negatively affected by the availability of sites and transport options, which is reflected in a lower ratio of visitors to the capacity of recreation potential. This finding opens up discussion about opportunities to create new jobs within sustainable tourism in Brezno district. This study provides an alternative view to the assessment and evaluation of the recreational potential of ecosystem services in small regions. Moreover, the methodology developed in this paper is replicable and could be applied by planners using geographical information systems.

Application of machine learning to the Vs-based soil liquefaction potential assessment

Earthquakes can cause violent liquefaction of the soil, resulting in unstable foundations that can cause serious damage to facilities such as buildings, roads, and dikes. This is a primary cause of major earthquake disasters. Therefore, the discrimination and prediction of earthquake-induced soil liquefaction has been a hot issue in geohazard research. The soil liquefaction assessment is an integral part of engineering practice. This paper evaluated a dataset of 435 seismic sand liquefaction events using machine learning algorithms. The dataset was analyzed using seven potential assessment parameters. Ten machine learning algorithms are evaluated for their ability to assess seismic sand liquefaction potential, including Linear Discriminant Analysis(LDA), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis(QDA), Naive Bayes(NB), KNearest Neighbor(KNN), Artificial Neural Network(ANN), Classification Tree(CT), Support Vector Machine(SVM), Random Forest(RF), e Xtreme Gradient Boosting(XGBoost), Light Gradient Boosting Machine(Light GBM). A 10-fold cross-validation(CV) method was used in the modeling process to verify the predictive performance of the machine learning models. The final percentages of significant parameters that influenced the prediction results were obtained as Cyclic Stress Ratio(CSR) and Shear-Wave Velocity( VS1) with 56% and 38%, respectively. The final machine learning algorithms identified as suitable for seismic sand liquefaction assessment were the CT, RF, XGBoost algorithms, with the RF algorithm performing best.

Atmospheric deposition fluxes and health risk assessment of potentially toxic elements in Caohai Lake(Guizhou Province,China)

In this study,the sources of potentially toxic elements(PTEs)from atmospheric deposition in the waters of Guizhou’s Caohai Lake were investigated in addition to the potential risks to human health.Moss bags were used to enrich PTEs from atmospheric deposition,and eight monitoring sites that best represented geographic variation were established around Caohai Lake.Moss bags were collected and examined at every 3 months to identify spatiotemporal patterns of dry and wet atmospheric deposition of PTEs.Zn was the most abundant metal identified from deposition in Caohai(72.07%–95.94%),followed by Pb and Cd,while Hg was the least abundant(0.008%–0.354%).The contributions of wet deposition of PTEs were greater than those of dry deposition,and deposition during the heating season from December to April was greater than that between April to July.Hg was mainly derived from atmospheric dry deposition(65.38%–84.44%).Spatial distribution analysis indicated that atmospheric deposition was associated with the intensity of human activities and heating emissions.Exposure via hand-to-mouth contact accounted for over 99%of the total exposure risk although overall exposure was lower than threshold acceptable levels for carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic metals,indicating an overall lack of risk towards human health.Nevertheless,the health risk from atmospheric deposition of PTEs in Caohai Lake may be reduced by focusing on Zn,Pb,and Cd deposition in rainfall and minimizing the hazards associated with hand-to-mouth exposure to PTEs.

Carbon emissions reduction potentiality for railroad transportation based on life cycle assessment

This study addresses the comparative carbon emissions of different transportation modes within a unified evaluation framework,focusing on their carbon footprints from inception to disposal.Specifically,the entire life cycle carbon emissions of High-Speed Rail(HSR),battery electric vehicles,conventional internal combustion engine vehicles,battery electric buses,and conventional internal combustion engine buses are analyzed.The life cycle is segmented into vehicle manufacturing,fuel or electricity production,operational,and dismantlingrecycling stages.This analysis is applied to the Beijing-Tianjin intercity transportation system to explore emission reduction strategies.Results indicate that HSR demonstrates significant carbon emission reduction,with an intensity of only 24%-32% compared to private vehicles and 47%-89% compared to buses.Notably,HSR travel for Beijing-Tianjin intercity emits only 24% of private vehicle emissions,demonstrating the emission reduction benefits of transportation structure optimization.Additionally,predictive modeling reveals the potential for carbon emission reduction through energy structure optimization,providing a guideline for the development of effective transportation management systems.

Cumulative gain and lift charts for model performance assessment in mineral potential mapping

Model performance assessment is a key procedure for mineral potential mapping, but the correspond-ing research achievements are seldom reported in literature. Cumulative gain and lift charts are well known in the data mining community specialized in marketing and sales applications and widely used in customer chum prediction for model performance assessment. In this paper, they are introduced into the field of mineral poten-tial mapping for model performance assessment. These two charts can be viewed as a graphic representation of the advantage of using a predictive model to choose mineral targets. A cumulative gain curve can represent how much a predictive model is superior to a random guess in mineral target prediction. A lift chart can express how much more likely the mineral targets predicted by a model are deposit-bearing ones than those by a random se-lection. As an illustration, the cumulative gain and lift charts are applied to measure the performance of weights of evidence, logistic regression,restricted Boltzmann machine, and multilayer perceptron in mineral potential mapping in the Altay district in northern Xinjiang in China. The results show that the cumulative gain and lift charts can visually reveal that the first three models perform well while the last one performs poorly. Thus, the cumulative gain and lift charts can serve as a graphic tool for model performance assessment in mineral potential mapping.

Seismic Risk Assessment and Maximum Magnitudes of Potential Earthquakes on Active Faults near Lanzhou City

The Zhuanglang river and Baiyin Baiyangshu river faults are late Quaternary faults near Lanzhou city, which pose a threat to the safety of the city. However, the cause of medium- strong earthquakes along the fault is rather complicated and even uncertain. It is important for us how to assess the magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes and the seismic risk of the faults. The authors make reference to the method that Wen Xueze, et ai. （2007） developed to assess the magnitudes of maximum potential earthquakes in sub-areas of moderately and weakly active faults in the eastern Chinese Mainland, and brought forward an empirical relationship between the maximum magnitudes Mmax and the at/b values of the sub-areas＇ frequency- magnitude relationships in the Lanzhou area. By using this empirical relationship, the authors have estimated the upper-limits Mu of the Zhuanglang river and Baiyin Baiyangshu river active faults near Lanzhou city as Ms6.9 and 6.3, respectively. In addition, they have assessed the average interval recurrence time and the probabilities of destructive earthquakes on the faults.

Distribution, Mobility, and Health Risks Assessment of Trace Metals in River Sediments from Intense Agricultural Activity Areas in West Africa

The economy of West African countries is mainly based on agriculture. However, the trace metal(loid)s contamination status in rivers is relatively unknown in the region. In this work, 45 surface sediments collected from the Bandama, Comoé, and Bia Rivers in south and south eastern Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa), were analyzed for total metal concentrations and chemical speciation. The results showed that the river sediments were considerably contaminated by Cd and moderately contaminated by As, Cu, Pb, and Zn. Significant spatial variations were observed among the stations but not between the rivers. Metals Cd and Cu were likely to cause more ecological risks. The speciation analysis unravelled that the metal(loid)s partitioned mainly in the residual fraction, with the potential mobile fraction varying from 14% to 28%. The study calls for establishment of strict policies relative to the application of fertilizers and agrochemicals and mining activities to protect the environment and human health risks.

Use of Human Embryonic Stem Cell-Derived Cardiomyocyte Clusters to Assess Potential for Chronic Treatment with Compounds to Cause QT Prolongation

Drug-induced QT prolongation is a serious clinical issue in developing novel drug candidates and marketing drugs. A major cause of QT prolongation is direct inhibition of human ether-à-go-go-related gene (hERG) channels. Reduction in repolarization-related channel expression levels on plasma membranes is another mechanism that induces QT prolongation. Recently, we established a system for assessing the risk of QT prolongation by using human embryonic stem cell-derived cardiomyocyte clusters (hES-CMCs) in which the field potential duration (FPD) or corrected FPD (FPDc) was measured as an indicator of drug-induced QT interval prolongation. Here, we examined whether this system was able to detect FPDc prolongation caused by pentamidine or probucol, both of which can induce QT prolongation after long-term treatment. hES-CMCs were treated with pentamidine or probucol, and the FPDc of the same clusters was measured 10 min, 4 h, and 24 h after the start of treatment. Concentration-dependent FPDc prolongation was observed at 24 h, but not at 10 min, with pentamidine or probucol treatment. These results suggest that the hES-CMC-based assessment system can be used to detect both acute (at 10 min) and delayed (at 24 h) QT prolongation risk on the same platform by simple alteration of the extended culture period.

Environmental impact assessment of China’s primary aluminum based on life cycle assessment

Assessing and accounting for material consumption and environmental impact are necessary to measure environmental externalities of the aluminum industry and to construct an ecological civilization.In this research,life cycle assessment(LCA)theory was used to assess the environmental impact of primary aluminum based on the lime soda Bayer process and different power generation modes,and the sources and distributions of the four selected impact categories were analyzed.The results show that,(1)Negative environmental impact of aluminum industry generally occurs from alumina extraction,carbon anode fabrication and electrolysis,particularly electrolysis and alumina extraction.Primary energy demand(PED),water use(WU),global warming potential(GWP)and freshwater eutrophication potential(FEP)are main environmental impact categories.(2)The environmental load with thermal power is higher than that with hydropower,e.g.,for the former,the greenhouse gas emission coefficient of 21800 kg CO2 eq/t(Al)will be generated,while for the latter,4910 kg CO2 eq/t(Al)will be generated.(3)Both power mode methods reflect the energy structure,whereas direct emissions reflect the technical level,indicating the potential for large energy savings and emission reductions,and some policies,related to clean power,energy efficiency and technological progress,should be made for emission reduction.

Overview Landslide Hazard Assessment of China

In recent years, China has suffered serious geological disasters, most of slope movements due to complex geology, geomorphology, unusual weather conditions, and large-scale land explorations during high speed economic development. According to geological hazard investigations organized by the Ministry of Land and Resources of China, there are 400 towns and more than 10 000 villages under the threatening of those landslide hazards. This paper presents the overview landslide hazard assessment in terms of GIS, which aims to evaluate the overview geohazard potentials, vulnerabilities of lives and land resources, and risks in conterminous China on the scale of 1∶6 000 000. This is the first overview landslide hazard potential map of China.

Content and Ecological Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Surface Sediment in Weishan Lake

[Objective] The aim was to analyze the content of heavy metals in surface sediment in Weishan Lake and further assess its ecological risk.[Method] Heavy metal pollution in surface sediment in Weishan Lake was studied,and the pollution indices and potential ecological risk indices of Cu,Zn,Pb,Cd and Cr were calculated to assess the potential ecological risk of heavy metal pollution.[Result] In surface sediment in Weishan Lake,the average contents of Cu,Zn,Pb,Cd,Cr and Ni were 64.78,185.05,78.76,0.17,37.76 and 46.84mg/kg respectively.Cr and Cd weren’t beyond standards in all stations,while Cu and Pb exceeded standards in all stations,with average super-standard multiple of 0.85 and 0.31,respectively,and Zn content wasn’t beyond standard in S2 station,with average super-standard multiple of 0.24.The average pollution indices of Cu,Zn,Pb,Cd and Cr were 1.85,1.23,1.31,0.34 and 0.47 respectively,with average comprehensive pollution index of 5.21,which showed that heavy metal pollution was light.In addition,heavy metal pollution in entryway portion and sea-route portion were more serious than that of breeding portion.Potential ecological risk assessment showed that the average potential ecological risk indices of Cu,Zn,Pb,Cd and Cr were 9.25,1.23,6.56,10.34 and 0.94 respectively,with average comprehensive potential ecological risk index of 28.33,and it revealed that potential ecological risk of heavy metals was slight.Besides,the potential ecological risk order of heavy metal pollution was sea-route portion>entryway portion>breeding portion.[Conclusion] The study could provide references for the regulation and improvement of ecological environment in Weishan Lake in the east route of south-to-north water transfer project.

Assessment of global solar resource development

With the increasing severity of environmental problems,many countries have set energy transition targets to promote the realization of the Paris Agreement.There has been a global consensus on utilizing solar energy resources as alternatives to conventional sources to support this energy transition.In this regard,analyzing the“location,”“quantity,”and“quality”of global solar energy resources will not only assist an individual country to efficiently utilize these resources but also promote the realization of large-scale intercontinental resource utilization and complementation.This study established the basic database,model methods,and platform tools for global solar energy assessment,Then,a global solar energy resource assessment was conducted,which included the theoretical reserves(TRs),technical installed potential capacity(TPIC),and average development cost(ADC).A comparative analysis of the assessment results for all continents was also performed.After that,based on big data analysis and geographic information system(GIS)calculations,the distribution characteristics of the global solar power TPIC were calculated with the two core indicators,namely the capacity factor and ADC.Furthermore,a data-driven quantitative evaluation of the refined development potential of solar energy resources was performed.Finally,the reasonableness and coincidence analysis of the resource assessment results were verified using data from global and specifically Chinese photovoltaic(PV)bases.