Will Coal Price Fluctuations Affect Renewable Energy Substitution and Carbon Emission? A Computable General Equilibrium-Based Study of China

Changes in the energy price system will determine the direction of evolution of the energy industry structure.As a country where coal is the dominant energy source,what is the effect of coal price fluctuations on China’s industry development costs and energy consumption structure?To investigate this problem,this paper utilized an economy–energy–environment computable general equilibrium model.In this study,four aspects were analyzed:Energy supply side,proportion of renewable energy consumption,macroeconomy,and changes in CO_(2) emissions.The results of this study show that an increase of 10%–20%in coal prices contributes to a shift into using renewable energy,which leads to energy saving and emission reduction.Renewable energy and clean energy rose by 0.57%–4.47%in the energy structure,but this has a certain negative impact on the macroeconomy.The gross domestic product(GDP)fell by 0.07%–0.18%.As a result,the decline in coal prices became an obstacle to renewable energy substitution and energy conservation.In addition,we put forward policy suggestions according to the results in energy,economic,and environmental effects.

Coal price fluctuations and the impact on financial risk Evidence from China＇s coal listed companies

With the rise of coal price, the proportion of loss-making enterprises shows an upward trend in China＇s coal industry. This paper uses Altman Z-Score model to measure financial risk of 19 listed companies in the coal industry in A-share market from 1995 to 2007. Empirical results show that Year-Based price index of coal price has a negative correlation with the financial risk but has no significance, and coal chain price has a significant negative correlation with the financial risk. Further research indicates that enterprises increase bad investment, and a lot of debts caused by short-term rise in coal prices. The results also show that the financial risk in the coal industry declines with the rise of GDP growth rate and increases with the rise of inflation rate.

A study of mining fatalities and coal price variation

It has long been postulated that a relationship exists between commodity price cycles and fatalities in the mining industry.Previous studies have found only weak correlations in this area.This study analyses the fatalities recorded in coal mines over the period 1985-2016 in the State of Queensland as a function of thermal coal price variation.The study finds that the relationship between fatalities and coal prices is not linear.One to two fatalities occur in most years independent of the thermal coal price.When the price of coal falls below AUD 55/tonne(non-inflation adjusted),the likelihood of an incident involving multiple fatalities increases.The probability can be estimated at 2 in 18 events(equivalent to 11%).This paper postulates that in difficult economic times,mining companies react by downsizing direct employees.If not carefully managed,this can result in loss of knowledge around safety systems,and reduced effectiveness of safety supervision.Because of labour cost advantages,some jobs previously undertaken by direct employees will be replaced by contractors.Increased contractor numbers contribute to increased risk of fatalities occurring,as contractors are over-represented in accident categories involving vehicle accidents,tire handling and crushing incidents.Mine inspectorates,mining,and mining contractor companies need to be especially vigilant to enforce health and safety management systems during periods of low coal prices.

Analysis on the Mutation and Time-Varying Characteristics of Coal Price System Evolution from the Perspective of Finance

Coal is essential to ensure China’s energy security.The sudden or gradual change of coal price reflects the degree of disequilibrium or expected disequilibrium of coal supply and demand,which will not be conducive to energy security.Therefore,it is important to analyze the change points of coal price and explore the reason of the price fluctuation.This paper analyses the coal price from January2008 to June 2019 as the perspective of the financial market.Firstly,the PPM-DBSCAN model is used to identify the mutation point of coal price fluctuation.Secondly,path analysis is used to extract the core driving factors that affect coal price.Thirdly,the authors construct a time-varying and time-lag effect analysis model for structural changes of coal price based on the TVP-VAR model.The results show that there are 11 mutation points of coal price fluctuation.Financial market factors,coal supply and demand and alternative factors are the reasons of coal price mutation.The authors find that the imbalance of coal supply and demand in traditional view cannot fully explain the fluctuation of coal price.The impact of the financial market and non-thermal power generation have more influence on the coal price.

RESEARCH ON THE QUALITY PRICE RATIO OF COKING COAL

If assortment priee parity of Clase coking coal and its qtalty price danrcnee is nonreasonable, it deren't gulde in Anprotrig tbe quallry metaliurgical coking coal and may be influence theeconomic benefit of metallurgical enterprises. This paper propose the principles and mathematicmodel for determination aseortment party of clean cokingcoal and its quality difference of ash content in clean coking coal in order to urge wasbenes into producing superior clean coking cleal whichis under condition of consideration both interest waskeries and interest metallurgicai industry. It canbe used as a method in theory to make price strategies under condition of socialism maket economicfor washeries of clean coking coal

2024年我国无烟煤市场发展与展望

通过对宏观政策以及产业政策动态等多维度进行剖析,对无烟煤下游行业的消费现状和趋势进行详细分析和预测。介绍了我国无烟煤资源分布、生产和进口现状,对我国无烟煤生产和进口趋势进行了预测。综合分析供需、成本、政策等影响无烟煤价格的因素,特别是需求和供应关系,对2024年无烟煤价格走势进行了定性分析。整体认为,2024年,我国无烟煤将处于供需紧平衡状态,但较2023年略有宽松;价格中枢有望小幅下移,但仍将处于相对较高的位置。

中国煤炭价格与碳排放权交易价格的传导路径研究

碳市场作为新兴市场易受能源价格因素干扰,在“双碳”目标下研究煤炭价格与碳排放权交易价格(以下简称为碳价)的传导路径,有利于碳市场的健康运行并助力其发挥减排作用。在梳理煤炭价格与碳价传导机理的基础上,利用DCC-GARCH模型揭示煤炭指数与碳价的动态关系,并运用VAR模型实证检验煤炭价格与碳价的传导路径及能源消费结构、能源效率与动态相关系数的因果关系。实证结果表明:煤炭价格与碳价存在显著动态相关性,并呈现复杂性和多变性;碳市场尚未充分发挥其创新激励效应,相较于能源利用效率,煤炭价格与碳价通过能源消费结构路径实现的传导更加显著;能源消费结构调整是动态相关系数变化的格兰杰原因,而能源利用效率改变则不是。

基于“煤电矛盾”问题的煤炭中长期合同辩证研究

煤炭中长期合同是“煤电矛盾”中的功能性问题,虽然目前政府力推签订煤炭中长期合同,但针对煤炭契约仍存在诸多认知不足的问题。分析了煤炭中长期合同的优、缺点,梳理煤电定价模式与煤电交易契约的关系,讨论煤炭契约定价方法与价格波动风险对煤电交易有效性的影响。研究发现,“市场煤、计划电”的定价模式会在一定程度上激化“煤电矛盾”,且该模式在短期内无法改变;煤炭中长期合同是现阶段有效的治理工具,但仍存在机会主义行为与成本疏导问题;目前的煤炭中长期合同应辅以合理的弹性定价法,并利用煤炭差价合约降低价格风险。在此基础上,提出了针对性的政策建议。

How to Realize Power Price Reduction in China?

In order to make power price truly reflect the cost of electric power and a reasonable profit without making the price unaffordable to the public, the government would have to adopt measures including tax reduction, surcharge reduction, debt relief and coal price reduction.

新型电力系统中气电与煤电调峰经济性研究

新能源发电的间歇性和随机性等特点带来的电力系统平衡和安全问题需要调峰系统解决。选取煤电调峰和气电调峰在不同应用场景下的综合竞争力进行研究,采用平准化度电成本作为衡量标准,充分考虑固定成本、启停成本、燃料成本、碳排放权交易成本等因素。研究表明,伴随新能源发电装机和利用规模的增加,燃煤和燃气机组的利用小时数趋于降低,启停次数趋于增多,由此带来机组度电成本上升,但两类机组度电成本的差异逐步缩小,度电成本的影响因素由以燃料价格为主转变为由燃料价格和维修费用共同作用;煤电机组度电成本对燃料价格、启停次数和碳价敏感度逐渐趋于平衡,燃气机组度电成本对各因素的敏感度仍以燃料价格为主。当碳价在70~200元/吨时,在山西、内蒙古等煤炭资源相对丰富的区域,煤电调峰经济性较好;四川、东南沿海、河北、海南等地区由于具有天然气资源供应优势,气电调峰具备竞争性。若未来碳价达到500元/吨,气电优势将进一步扩大至全国。

低油价下的煤化工产业经济性和发展战略分析

全球原油价格的不断波动使煤化工行业面临着前所未有的挑战和新兴的发展机遇。基于此,对低油价环境下煤化工产业的经济性与发展战略进行深入分析,提出了一系列针对性的建议和措施。目的在于提升煤化工行业在市场中的竞争力,确保其在全球能源经济中的稳定发展与优化转型。

解决“煤电矛盾”问题:煤电企业拆分重组的思辨

煤电企业拆分重组是解决“煤电矛盾”中结构性问题的重要举措。虽然目前央企拆分重组工作已初见成效,但针对煤电部门仍存在诸多认知不足的问题,制约着政策实施的合理性及有效性。为从制度结构的角度解析煤电企业拆分重组面临的阻碍,基于新制度经济学的一般原理,按照“煤电矛盾”→“煤电交易”→“产权优化”→“调节定价”的传导逻辑,对煤电企业的拆分重组进行分析,并以煤电企业拆分重组为切入点,梳理煤电产权与能源价格的关系,聚焦产权优化配置对煤电交易过程有效性的影响问题。首先,运用组织理论,剖析煤电矛盾与煤电交易在治理结构根源上的逻辑关系,结果显示煤电矛盾来源于煤电交易过程中的交易成本不节约;其次,基于现代产权理论及交易成本理论,解析煤电交易与煤电产权之间的底层逻辑,结果显示产权的优化配置决定了煤电交易的资源配置效率及组织效率;最后,构建煤电双方博弈的数理推导模型,指出无效或模糊产权下的负外部性,并建立不同产权配置下调节定价的方式。研究发现:1)现阶段煤电企业拆分重组过程中忽视了交易成本的核算,交易成本不节约会弱化煤电企业拆分重组的成效,弱化市场调节矛盾的能力,进而引致煤电矛盾;2)由于交易成本界定不清晰,当前煤电企业拆分重组存在产权配置不清晰、不合理的隐患,剩余控制权的分配较为简单粗放,制约着煤电企业的兼并效率及组织效率;3)由于现行煤电产权配置模糊,造成定价机制偏离了有效区间。据此提出缓解“煤电矛盾”的政策建议:加快煤电交易成本核算体系的构建及完善;推动混合制治理方式的应用及完善;建立弹性定价机制。

中国煤炭进口的问题及优化建议

中国煤炭资源丰富,分布在各省但极不均衡,呈现产销逆向分布的态势。虽然中国是世界第一大煤炭生产国,但由于经济高速发展,煤炭需求旺盛等原因仍需大量进口煤炭,成为世界第一大煤炭进口国。煤炭进口能保障国内需求,缓解西多东少、北富南贫的问题,但也存在对外依存度高、煤价易受多方因素影响等问题。因此,本文通过分析中国煤炭的进口现状,探究中国煤炭进口出现的问题,再提出相应的煤炭进口优化建议。

Leading Indicators of Heating Coal Pricing in Turkey: A Coal Pricing Model (2003-2009)

In this study, a coal pricing model for Turkey is developed employing Granger causality and cointegration analysis by using monthly data between January 2003 and April 2009. Empirical results based on Granger causality tests indicate that foreign coal futures prices and domestic consumer price index for energy sector can be used as the leading indica- tors for domestic coal prices for Turkey. An error correction model for Turkish coal pricing is specified by taking into account the results of Granger causality. The forecast of the coal prices based on error correction model is giving very successful results. It is observed that the coal prices and forecasted coal prices values are almost moving together or very close to each other.

分时电价下矿井多级接力式排水系统的优化策略

煤矿井下排水系统的工作效率直接影响到煤矿的生产安全和经济效益。现有矿井多级接力式排水系统对于电费波峰波谷特性和《煤矿防治水细则》要求的排水系统安全约束考虑不全面,难以实现整体系统的一体化安全经济运行。针对该问题,基于避峰就谷策略和动态规划方法,提出分时电价下矿井多级接力式排水系统的优化策略。通过考虑煤矿排水系统的多级串联结构、涌水量和水泵的排水能力,建立了煤矿多级接力式排水系统的数学模型。基于避峰就谷策略,以电费成本最低为目标函数,以水仓水位、水泵排水能力、煤矿安全要求等为约束条件,构建基于分时电价的多级接力式排水系统优化问题,并给出了基于动态规划方法的求解算法。以某矿井4级排水系统为例进行仿真分析,结果表明,该策略可有效控制井下水位,保证水位处于合理高度:当电价较高时,水泵开启的数量很少或为零,水仓处于高水位状态;当电价较低时,水泵开启的数量较多,水仓处于低水位状态。该策略能够在提升经济效益的同时,保障煤矿的生产效率和生产安全。

碳排放、煤炭消费与经济发展的脱钩效应分析

碳排放脱钩和煤炭消费脱钩对实现碳达峰碳中和目标具有重要意义。运用Tapio脱钩弹性方法,研究了我国各省区市碳排放、煤炭消费与经济发展的脱钩情况,然后运用面板回归模型,研究了脱钩效应的演变及区域差异。结果发现:我国碳排放脱钩和煤炭消费脱钩关联性很高,但煤炭消费绝对脱钩的年份和地区均略多于碳排放绝对脱钩;煤炭消费强度、煤炭价格涨幅和工业增加值占比对碳排放脱钩和煤炭消费脱钩的作用均比较显著,GDP对于煤炭消费脱钩具有显著的影响,但对碳排放脱钩的影响并不明显。建议在优化能源结构和推进经济转型的同时,也要保障煤炭供应,避免煤价过快上涨。

考虑电价碳价不确定性的燃煤发电基准电价优化模型

碳排放权交易市场(以下简称“碳市场”)的推行将增加燃煤发电企业的碳排放成本,而现有燃煤发电基准电价难以覆盖逐年增加的燃煤发电成本。在此背景下,提出考虑电价、碳排放权价格(以下简称“碳价”)不确定性的燃煤发电基准电价双层优化模型。上层以电网公司为主体,构建基于CVaR(条件风险价值)的燃煤发电基准电价多目标优化模型;下层以燃煤发电企业为主体,构建考虑碳价的燃煤发电企业电力市场申报模型。采用分层序列法将多目标双层优化模型转化为单目标双层优化模型进行求解。算例分析结果表明,碳价上涨及其波动性加剧都会导致燃煤发电企业发电意愿下降,需相应地提升基准电价,而基准电价的最优值与碳价近似成线性关系。

基于集成模型的煤炭价格多步预测研究

煤炭价格的准确预测对化解能源价格风险有着重要意义,针对煤炭价格预测的问题,开展了基于集成模型的煤炭价格多步预测研究。本研究分析了影响煤炭价格的主控因素,并建立了数据集;将粒子群优化算法(Particle swarm optimization,PSO)和长短期记忆模型(Long Short-Term Memory,LSTM)有效集成,建立了一种基于PSO-LSTM的多参量多步预测模型。利用多参量多步预测模型调用数据集进行了曹妃甸港煤炭价格预测,结果表明:基于PSO-LSTM的多参量多步预测模型预测效果优于基于BP、LSTM的预测模型;其预测价格与实际价格的MAPE、R2值分别为0.025、0.908,能够为煤炭市场的科学管控提供帮助。

大物流背景下铁路非煤运输定价管理机制优化研究

在当前发展现代化大物流的背景下,铁路运输企业面临深化改革的市场环境和拓展运输市场、升级转型的经营使命。基于国家能源集团发展形势,分析大物流背景下推进铁路非煤运输的必要性,梳理铁路非煤运输及定价管理现状,指出当前非煤运输定价在管理体系、管理机制、管理模式方面存在的问题。结合国家能源集团生产经营实际,从构建分级负责的非煤运输定价管理体系、建立分部授权的浮动定价管理机制、发展区分客户性质的定价管理模式等方面提出针对性改进思路,从价格管理的角度出发,为提高国家能源集团铁路非煤货物运输效率、服务水平、收入收益提供参考。

发挥煤炭中长期合同制度优势保障电煤安全稳定供应

推进煤炭中长期合同签订与履约是确保电煤安全稳定供应和经济平稳运行的重要举措。本文系统地阐明了煤炭中长期合同具有规避价格波动、稳定用户、稳定企业预期、稳定运力、加强企业信用建设等意义,分析了当前在中长期合同签订和履约中面临煤炭质量缺乏保障、地方保护主义干扰、企业合同履约信用意识淡漠,核查履约存在一定困难等问题,并对问题的存在进行了原因分析。为此,提出以“四个推动”,即推动加快中小型煤炭企业兼并重组、推动构建全国统一煤炭交易平台、持续推动煤炭中长期合同签订履约工作、推动建立煤炭中长期合同履约监管机制这些举措加以解决。