Satellite observations of coastal upwelling in the northern Arafura Sea

Coastal upwelling is significant for marine ecosystems by lifting nutrient-rich deep waters into the euphotic zone,thereby increasing primary and secondary productivity.The satellite observations show that the northern Arafura Sea(NAS),especially in the coastal region,features high chlorophyll-a(chl-a)concentrations,implying a strong coastal upwelling.However,coastal upwelling in the NAS has not received much attention.Based on a semi-automatic image processing technology,the seasonal and interannual variability of coastal upwelling in the NAS are investigated in this study using satellite-observed sea surface temperature(SST)and wind data.The results suggest that there are seasonal coastal upwelling events in the NAS modulated by upwelling-favorable southeast monsoon(SEM).The annual mean days,mean area,and annual mean intensity of coastal upwelling events during the SEM season are 92 days,6514 km^(2),and-5.31×10^(5),respectively,while the corresponding values during the northwest monsoon(NWM)season are 32 days,5569 km^(2),and-1.41×10^(5).It is also found that the SEM coastal upwelling in the NAS displays prominent interannual variability.The strong upwelling events are found in 2010,2013,2016,and 2017 when the southeast monsoon winds were weaker.Further analysis suggests that at the interannual scale,the upwelling index(UI)averaged in the SEM season is negatively correlated with that of three upwelling indicators.This can be attributed to the limitation of onshore geostrophic flow which is evidenced by the negative correlation between the UI and the alongshore difference in sea surface height.This study highlights the important role of the southeast monsoon in the temporal variability of coastal upwelling in the NAS.

Seasonal response of nitrogen exchange fluxes to crab disturbance at sediment-water interface in coastal tidal wetlands

Coastal wetlands are hotspots for nitrogen(N)cycling,and crab burrowing is known to transform N in intertidal marsh soils.However,the underlying mechanisms remain unclear.This study conducted field experiments and used indoor control test devices to investigate the seasonal response of nitrogen to crab disturbance at the sediment-water interface in coastal tidal flat wetlands.The results showed that crab disturbance exhibited significant seasonality with large seasonal differences in cave density and depth.Due to crab disturbance,nitrogen fuxes at the sediment-water interface were much greater in the box with crabs than in the box without crabs.In summer,NH-N showed a positive flux from the sediment to the overlying water,but NO2-N and NOg-N showed positive fluxes from the sediment to the overlying water only in early stages.In winter,NH-N showed a positive flux from the sediment to the overlying water,but NO-N and NO,-N both exhibited positive and negative fluxes.These results indicated that the presence of crab burrows can cause the aerobic layer to move downward by approximately 8-15 cm in summer and directly promote nitrification at the sediment surface.

Coordination Mechanism and Empirical Research on Marine Science Technology Innovation and Marine Eco-civilization:A Case Study of Coastal Areas of China

Marine science technology innovation provides power and guarantees for marine eco-civilization construction,which provides direction and material support for marine science technology innovation.Therefore,the coordinated development of the two is of great significance to the marine economy sustainable development in China’s coastal areas.On the basis of clarifying the connotations of marine science technology innovation and marine eco-civilization in China’s coastal areas from 2006 to 2019,the mechanism for their coordinated development was analysed.A comprehensive indicator system based on the connotation of the two was constructed,and the coordinated development relationship was empirically tested using the coupled coordination model and the panel vector autoregressive(PVAR)model.The results show that:1)the level of China’s coastal marine science technology innovation continues to improve,gradually forming the core of the development of marine science technology innovation in the north,east and south of Shandong,Shanghai and Guangdong;the level of marine eco-civilization development fluctuating upward trend,showing obvious spatial differentiation characteristics.2)The degree of coordination of marine science technology innovation and marine eco-civilization is growing over time.There is no causal relationship between marine science technology innovation and marine eco-civilization in the northern marine economic circle,but there is a two-way causal relationship between the two in the eastern and southern marine economic circles.3)Marine eco-civilization shows a significant positive and continuous impact on marine science technology innovation,and marine science technology innovation shows a long-term,continuous,fluctuating,and lagging impact on marine eco-civilization.The overall role of marine eco-civilization on marine science technology innovation is dominant,and there are significant differences in the impact effects of the two major marine economic circles.

Diatoms as indicators of environmental change in coastal areas:a case study in Lianjiang coast of East China Sea

Owing to the significant differences in environmental characteristics and explanatory factors among estuarine and coastal regions,research on diatom transfer functions and database establishment remains incomplete.This study analysed diatoms in surface sediment samples and a sediment core from the Lianjiang coast of the East China Sea,together with environmental variables.Principal component analysis of the environmental variables showed that sea surface salinity(SSS)and sea surface temperature were the most important factors controlling hydrological conditions in the Lianjiang coastal area,whereas canonical correspondence analysis indicated that SSS and pH were the main environmental factors affecting diatom distribution.Based on the modern diatom species–environmental variable database,we developed a diatom-based SSS transfer function to quantitatively reconstruct the variability in SSS between 1984 and 2021 for sediment core HK3 from the Lianjiang coastal area.The agreement between the reconstructed SSS and instrument SSS data from 1984 to 2021 suggests that diatombased SSS reconstruction is reliable for studying past SSS variability in the Lianjiang coastal area.Three low SSS events in AD 2019,2013,and 1999,together with an increased relative concentration of freshwater diatom species and coarser sediment grain sizes,corresponded to two super-typhoon events and a catastrophic flooding event in Lianjiang County.Thus,a diatom-based SSS transfer function for reconstructing past SSS variability in the estuarine and coastal areas of the East China Sea can be further used to reflect the paleoenvironmental events in this region.

A Novel Method for Forecasting Freak Wave Occurrence in A Short Crested Coastal Sea

In order to forecast the distribution of crest amplitudes and the occurrence of freak waves in a short crested coastal sea,a novel transformed linear simulation method is initially proposed in this paper.A Hermite transformation model expressed as a monotonic cubic polynomial serves as the foundation for the novel simulation technique.The wave crest amplitude exceedance probabilities of two sea states-one with a directional wave spectrum based on the measured wave elevation data at the Yura coast and the other with a typical directional JONSWAP wave spectrum-have been predicted using the novel simulation method that has been proposed.The likelihood that a particular critical wave crest amplitude will be exceeded is directly correlated with the probability that freak waves will occur.It is shown that the novel simulation approach suggested can provide predictions that are more precise than those obtained from the Rayleigh crest amplitude distribution model,the Jahns and Wheeler crest amplitude distribution model,or the conventional linear simulation method.This study also demonstrated that the nonlinear simulation method is less effective than the novel simulation method in terms of efficiency.

Evolution and Governance of the Structure of Marine Economic Networks in China’s Coastal Areas: Based on Sea-related A-share Listed Companies

Data on discrete,isolated attributes of the marine economy are often used in traditional marine economic research.However,as the focus of urban research shifts from internal static attributes to external dynamic linkages,the importance of marine economic net-work research is beginning to emerge.The construction of the marine economic network in China’s coastal areas is necessary to change the flow of land and sea resources and optimize regional marine economic development.Employing data from headquarters and branches of sea-related A-share listed enterprises to construct the marine economic network in China,we use social network analysis(SNA)to discuss the characteristics of its evolution as of 2010,2015,and 2020 and its governance.The following results were obtained.1)In terms of topological characteristics,the scale of the marine economic network in China’s coastal areas has accelerated and expan-ded,and the connections have become increasingly close;thus,this development has complex network characteristics.2)In terms of spatial structure,the intensity of the connection fluctuates and does not form stable development support;the group structure gradually becomes clear,but the overall pattern is fragmented;there are spatial differences in marine economic agglomeration radiation;the radi-ation effect of the eastern marine economic circle is obvious;and the polarization effect of northern and southern marine economic circles is significant.On this basis,we construct a framework for the governance of a marine economic network with the market,the government,and industry as the three governing bodies.By clarifying the driving factors and building objectives of marine economic network construction,this study aims to foster the high-quality development of China’s marine economy.

Kuroshio Intrusion Combined with Coastal Currents Affects Phytoplankton in the Northern South China Sea Revealed by Lipid Biomarkers

The northern South China Sea(NSCS)is significantly influenced by the Kuroshio intrusion and the coastal currents.Our knowledge on the roles of both currents on phytoplankton spatial variations is still inadequate.Here,we investigated the concentrations of phytoplankton biomarkers and their proportions in surface suspended particles from 47 sites of the NSCS during summer of 2017 and 2019.Brassicasterol/epi-brassicasterol,dinosterol,and C37 alkenones were used as proxies of biomass for diatoms,dinoflagellates,and haptophytes,respectively,and their sum indicating total phytoplankton biomass.A three end-member mixing model was applied to quantitatively assess the influence extent of the Kuroshio intrusion and the coastal currents.Our results showed that the Kuroshio intrusion and the coastal currents contributed equally to the overall surface water masses in the study area;however,the two currents had distinct effects on the spatial distribution of phytoplankton.For phytoplankton biomass,the eutrophic coastal currents were likely to be the main controlling factors,while the impact of the Kuroshio intrusion was weak and stimulated significant increases in phytoplankton biomass only at certain boundary sites.For phytoplankton community structures,the Kuroshio and its intrusion were the main factors,resulting in an increase in the proportions of dinoflagellates and haptophytes.The proportion of diatoms slightly increased due to the influence of the coastal currents.Our study quantifies the effects of the Kuroshio and the coastal currents on phytoplankton in the NSCS in terms of hydrological parameters,providing an important basis for the understanding of ecological functions and biogeochemical cycles in marginal sea-open ocean boundary regions.

Antibiogram, Genomic and Phylogeny of Stool and Seafood Isolates from Some Cholera-Prone Coastal Communities in Rivers State, Nigeria

Cholera is a significant public health threat across the globe, especially in coastal regions with poor water supply. This study was carried out to determine the antibiogram, genomic, and phylogeny of stool and seafood isolates from some cholera-prone coastal communities in Rivers State, Nigeria. A total of 400 stool samples and 42 different seafood were aseptically collected and examined using standard microbiology and molecular techniques. An antibiogram of isolates from seafood and stool samples was assayed. Genes for virulence, resistance, and relatedness of bacteria identified were also determined. The isolates from the stool and seafood were examined for susceptibility to some selected antibiotics. The findings showed the prevalence rate of cholera in the communities as follows: 16% in Kaa, 30% in Andoni, 4% in Ogu/Bolo, and 10% in Abua/Odual. The isolates from stool were susceptible to Ciprofloxacin and Gentamycin with a susceptibility rate of 94.12% each while 100% resistance was recorded against Amoxicillin-clavulanic acid, 94.12% against Amikacin and 88.24% against Colistin. For the sea foods, the isolates were susceptible to gentamycin and ciprofloxacin with a susceptibility rate of 91.43% and 82.86% respectively. Resistance was also recorded against Colistin (88.57%) and Azithromycin (82.86%). Testing the isolates for the presence of 16SrRNA genes showed that all were positive with 1500 bp 16SrRNA gene band size. TEM, OXA, SHV, and CTX-M resistant genes were detected whereas the virulence genes were TDH and AcrB. The phylogenetic analysis revealed isolates from seafood to be Aeromonas dhakensis, Vibrio parahaemolyticus, Vibrio azureus, and Providencia rettgeri, while in stool samples they were Enterobacter sichuanensis, Enterobacter hormaechei, Providencia sneebia, and Proteus vulgaris. Providencia stuartii, Proteus mirabilis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli, and Klebsiella pneumoniae were common isolates from both seafood and stool samples. This study has shown that not all reported cases of cholera are caused by Vibrio cholerae. Therefore, attention should be paid to other water-borne bacteria in every outbreak, especially in coastal communities.

A comparison study on structure-function relationship of polysaccharides obtained from sea buckthorn berries using different methods:antioxidant and bile acid-binding capacity

In this study,the structural characters,antioxidant activities and bile acid-binding ability of sea buckthorn polysaccharides(HRPs)obtained by the commonly used hot water(HRP-W),pressurized hot water(HRP-H),ultrasonic(HRP-U),acid(HRP-C)and alkali(HRP-A)assisted extraction methods were investigated.The results demonstrated that extraction methods had significant effects on extraction yield,monosaccharide composition,molecular weight,particle size,triple-helical structure,and surface morphology of HRPs except for the major linkage bands.Thermogravimetric analysis showed that HRP-U with filamentous reticular microstructure exhibited better thermal stability.The HRP-A with the lowest molecular weight and highest arabinose content possessed the best antioxidant activities.Moreover,the rheological analysis indicated that HRPs with higher galacturonic acid content and molecular weight showed higher viscosity and stronger crosslinking network(HRP-C,HRP-W and HRP-U),which exhibited stronger bile acid binding capacity.The present findings provide scientific evidence in the preparation technology of sea buckthorn polysaccharides with good antioxidant and bile acid binding capacity which are related to the structure affected by the extraction methods.

Influence of Irregular Coastlines on a Tornadic Mesovortex in the Pearl River Delta during the Monsoon Season. Part Ⅰ:Pre-storm Environment and Storm Evolution

The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective weather.This two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this region.Part I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm evolutions.The rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold outflows.This intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and convergence.Based on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple point.Developed over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level mesovortex.It is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical simulations.The findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear environment.Improved knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.

Concentration of Heavy Metals in Sediment and Seagrasses Tissue of the Red Sea Coastal Water of the Sudan

The study investigated the concentration of Lead, Cadmium, Nickels and Chromium in sediment and seagrass tissues at six selected sites along the Sudanese Red Sea coast. The findings of the study added some important and necessary information about the status and condition of the coastal environment in the Sudanese Red Sea coast in terms of the extent of pollution with heavy metals. The study sites included: Marsa Bashayer, Marsa Dama Dama, Green Area, Shipyard, Marsa Halout and Dungonab Bay. The Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer was used to measure Lead, Cadmium and Nickels. The colorimetric detection method was used for Chromium using the Spectrophotometer. Marsa Dama Dama site revealed high levels concentration of heavy metals in sediment for Lead (60.5) μg/g, Cadmium (0.22) μg/g and Chromium (146.65) μg/g. Marsa Halout showed the highest mean concentration of Nickel in sediment at 14 μg/g. The variation of concentration of metals in sediment between the sites was not significant. The mean concentration of metals in seagrass species tissues ranged from 3.9 to 26.25 μg/g for Lead, 0.1 to 0.90 μg/g for Cadmium, 0.38 to 5.96 μg/g for Nickel and 0.15 to 0.495 μg/g for Chromium. The differences of concentration of heavy metals in seagrass tissues among the sites were significant for Lead and not significant for Cadmium;Nickel and Chromium.

Vulnerability assessment of coastal wetlands in Minjiang River Estuary based on cloud model under sea level rise

The change of coastal wetland vulnerability affects the ecological environment and the economic development of the estuary area.In the past,most of the assessment studies on the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems stayed in static qualitative research,lacking predictability,and the qualitative and quantitative relationship was not objective enough.In this study,the“Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence”model and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change vulnerability definition were used to analyze the main impact of sea level rise caused by climate change on coastal wetland ecosystem in Minjiang River Estuary.The results show that:(1)With the increase of time and carbon emission,the area of high vulnerability and the higher vulnerability increased continuously,and the area of low vulnerability and the lower vulnerability decreased.(2)The eastern and northeastern part of the Culu Island in the Minjiang River Estuary of Fujian Province and the eastern coastal wetland of Meihua Town in Changle District are areas with high vulnerability risk.The area of high vulnerability area of coastal wetland under high emission scenario is wider than that under low emission scenario.(3)Under different sea level rise scenarios,elevation has the greatest impact on the vulnerability of coastal wetlands,and slope has less impact.The impact of sea level rise caused by climate change on the coastal wetland ecosystem in the Minjiang River Estuary is mainly manifested in the sea level rise,which changes the habitat elevation and daily flooding time of coastal wetlands,and then affects the survival and distribution of coastal wetland ecosystems.

Whether human-induced activities could change the gradient pattern of coastal land use along the sea-land direction:a case study in Manila Bay,Philippines

Increasing intense human activities have largely changed the coastal landscape and caused many environmental issues.However,whether human-induced activities could change the coastal land use gradient pattern,an important coastal zonal characteristic along the sea-land direction,remains unclear.Manila Bay was selected as the study area in this work.According to the distance of the land use and land cover(LULC)to the coastline,we clustered the typical coastal land use sequence patterns(CLUSPs)along the sea-land direction between 1988 and 2016 in Manila Bay and found the following.(1)Four typical CLUSPs,including the natural CLUSP dominated by forest land and grassland,the agricultural CLUSP dominated by dry farm and paddy field,the urbanised CLUSP dominated by construction land and the fishery CLUSP dominated by fishing farm,were mined in 1988.Three typical CLUSPs(a natural CLUSP,an intermediate CLUSP between the agricultural and urbanised CLUSPs,and a fishery CLUSP)were mined in 2016.(2)Affected by the dominant LULC,these typical CLUSPs showed a regular spatial pattern along the sea-land direction.For example,the typical natural CLUSP showed a landward pattern due to the long distance between the forest land and grassland and the coastline.(3)However,influenced by urban and aquaculture expansion,the land intensification of the CLUSP exhibited an obvious increase and caused the decrease of the CLUSP diversity from 1988 to 2016.The increase in the area of LULC coverage showed no obvious correlation with its distance from the coastline(DFC),but the net increase rate of LULC coverage had a significant negative correlation with the DFC.Therefore,human-induced activities have a large impact on the gradient pattern of coastal land use along the sea-land direction.

Assessments of Data-Driven Deep Learning Models on One-Month Predictions of Pan-Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

In recent years,deep learning methods have gradually been applied to prediction tasks related to Arctic sea ice concentration,but relatively little research has been conducted for larger spatial and temporal scales,mainly due to the limited time coverage of observations and reanalysis data.Meanwhile,deep learning predictions of sea ice thickness(SIT)have yet to receive ample attention.In this study,two data-driven deep learning(DL)models are built based on the ConvLSTM and fully convolutional U-net(FC-Unet)algorithms and trained using CMIP6 historical simulations for transfer learning and fine-tuned using reanalysis/observations.These models enable monthly predictions of Arctic SIT without considering the complex physical processes involved.Through comprehensive assessments of prediction skills by season and region,the results suggest that using a broader set of CMIP6 data for transfer learning,as well as incorporating multiple climate variables as predictors,contribute to better prediction results,although both DL models can effectively predict the spatiotemporal features of SIT anomalies.Regarding the predicted SIT anomalies of the FC-Unet model,the spatial correlations with reanalysis reach an average level of 89%over all months,while the temporal anomaly correlation coefficients are close to unity in most cases.The models also demonstrate robust performances in predicting SIT and SIE during extreme events.The effectiveness and reliability of the proposed deep transfer learning models in predicting Arctic SIT can facilitate more accurate pan-Arctic predictions,aiding climate change research and real-time business applications.

Arctic Sea Ice Variations in the First Half of the 20th Century:A New Reconstruction Based on Hydrometeorological Data

The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area(SIA) in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate change.Variations of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively well monitored since the 1950s, but are highly uncertain in the earlier period due to a lack of observations. Several reconstructions of the historical gridded sea-ice concentration(SIC) data were recently presented based on synthesized regional sea-ice observations or by applying a hybrid model–empirical approach. Here, we present an SIC reconstruction for the period1901–2019 based on established co-variability between SIC and surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure patterns. The reconstructed sea-ice data for March and September are compared to the frequently used Had ISST1.1 and SIBT1850 datasets. Our reconstruction shows a large decrease in SIA from the 1920 to 1940 concurrent with the Early 20th Century Warming event in the Arctic. Such a negative SIA anomaly is absent in Had ISST1.1 data. The amplitude of the SIA anomaly reaches about 0.8 mln km^(2) in March and 1.5 mln km^(2) in September. The anomaly is about three times stronger than that in the SIBT1850 dataset. The larger decrease in SIA in September is largely due to the stronger SIC reduction in the western sector of the Arctic Ocean in the 70°–80°N latitudinal zone. Our reconstruction provides gridded monthly data that can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric reanalyses and model experiments to study the Arctic climate for the first half of the 20th century.

Phytoplanktonic biogeography in the subtropical coastal waters,East China Sea along intensive anthropogenic stresses: roles of environmental versus spatial factors

Understanding the relative roles of local environmental effects and spatial effects on phytoplankton community is of essential importance to study the biogeography of them at regional scale. However, the determinants that driving the biogeography of phytoplankton communities in the coastal area of northern Zhejiang still remained unclear. We surveyed phytoplankton community compositions in water columns associated with environmental and spatial influences across five subzones that geographically covering this region over four seasons. Diatoms and dinoflagellates were recorded as the main dominant groups and Coscinodiscus oculs-iridis, Coscinodiscus jonesianus, and Skeletonema costatum, were identified as the major abundant species existing in all seasons.Spatially structured environmental conditions, rather than pure spatial or environmental factors, substantially shaped the biogeography of phytoplankton community, with the former mainly comprised of water temperature,dissolved oxygen, phosphate, pH, and salinity, and the latter referring to a non-negligible factor. This study was the first integrated research that combining environmental filtering with spatial factors in structuring phytoplankton communities at a complete tempo-spatial scale. Our results may facilitate to the further study of harmful algal blooms early-warning in this region.

Physical and mechanical properties and microstructures of submarine soils in the Yellow Sea

In recent years,the exploration of seabed has been intensified,but the submarine soils of silt and sand in the Yellow Sea area have not been well investigated so far.In this study,the physical and mechanical properties of silt and sand from the Yellow Sea were measured using a direct shear apparatus and their microstructures were observed using a scanning electron microscope.The test results suggest that the shear strength of silt and sand increases linearly with the increase of normal stress.Based on the direct shear test,the scanning electron microscope was used to observe the section surface of sand.It is observed that the section surface becomes rough,with many“V”‐shaped cracks.Many particles appear on the surface of the silt structure and tend to be disintegrated.The X‐ray diffraction experiment reveals that the sand and silt have different compositions.The shear strength of sand is slightly greater than that of silt under high stress,which is related to the shape of soil particles and the mineral composition.These results can be a reference for further study of other soils in the Yellow Sea;meanwhile,they can serve as soil parameters for the stability and durability analyses of offshore infrastructure construction.

Effects of Natural Processes on Sea Level Change along the West African Coastline

Coastal hazards induced by meteo-marine forcing are exacerbated by sea level change along the West African coastline. Changes in sea level are induced by ocean processes such as ocean heat content and river discharge. However, although these processes control largely change in sea level, they remain poorly understood. This study analyzes changes in ocean heat content, river discharge, and sea level and establishes an interconnection between these parameters using several statistical methods over the 1993-2021 period. Results showed a significant correlation between sea level and ocean heat content at 2000 m depth. The yearly minimum value appears in July from Cote d’Ivoire to Benin, whilst this value appears in June in Nigeria. The temporal variability of ocean heat content, river discharge and sea level along the West African coastline exhibits three or four periods interrupted by some breakpoints with unequal duration. The results indicate that the 1993-2000 period was dominated by an increasing ocean heat content along the coastline, while the period after the 2000s exhibits mostly a decreasing trend. Positive and negative trends characterized river discharge and sea level along this coastline. The result of multiple linear regression between sea level, river discharge and ocean heat content is a good approximation of sea level trend along the West African coastline. The results of this study could be used to predict future sea level trends along the coast.

Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

Ecological problems and ecological restoration zoning of the Aral Sea

The Aral Sea was the fourth largest lake in the world but it has shrunk dramatically as a result of irrational human activities, triggering the "Aral Sea ecological crisis". The ecological problems of the Aral Sea have attracted widespread attention, and the alleviation of the Aral Sea ecological crisis has reached a consensus among the five Central Asian countries(Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkmenistan). In the past decades, many ecological management measures have been implemented for the ecological restoration of the Aral Sea. However, due to the lack of regional planning and zoning, the results are not ideal. In this study, we mapped the ecological zoning of the Aral Sea from the perspective of ecological restoration based on soil type, soil salinity, surface water, groundwater table, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI), land cover, and aerosol optical depth(AOD) data. Soil salinization and salt dust are the most prominent ecological problems in the Aral Sea. We divided the Aral Sea into 7 first-level ecological restoration subregions(North Aral Sea catchment area in the downstream of the Syr Darya River(Subregion Ⅰ);artificial flood overflow area in the downstream of the Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅱ);physical/chemical remediation area of the salt dust source area in the eastern part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅲ);physical/chemical remediation area of severe salinization in the central part of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅳ);existing water surface and potential restoration area of the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅴ);Aral Sea vegetation natural recovery area(Subregion Ⅵ);and vegetation planting area with slight salinization in the South Aral Sea(Subregion Ⅶ)) and 14 second-level ecological restoration subregions according to the ecological zoning principles. Implementable measures are proposed for each ecological restoration subregion. For Subregion Ⅰ and Subregion Ⅱ with lower elevations, artificial flooding should be carried out to restore the surface of the Aral Sea. Subregion Ⅲ and Subregion Ⅳ have severe salinization, making it difficult for vegetation to grow. In these subregions, it is recommended to cover and pave the areas with green biomatrix coverings and environmentally sustainable bonding materials. In Subregion Ⅴ located in the central and western parts of the South Aral Sea, surface water recharge should be increased to ensure that this subregion can maintain normal water levels. In Subregion Ⅵ and Subregion Ⅶ where natural conditions are suitable for vegetation growth, measures such as afforestation and buffer zones should be implemented to protect vegetation. This study could provide a reference basis for future comprehensive ecological management and restoration of the Aral Sea.