The rolling force model for cold tandem mill was put forward by using the Elman dynamic recursive network method,based on the actual measured data.Furthermore,a good assumption is put forward,which brings a full unive...The rolling force model for cold tandem mill was put forward by using the Elman dynamic recursive network method,based on the actual measured data.Furthermore,a good assumption is put forward,which brings a full universe of discourse self-adjusting factor fuzzy control,closed-loop adjusting,based on error feedback and expertise into a rolling force prediction model,to modify prediction outputs and improve prediction precision and robustness.The simulated results indicate that the method is highly effective and the prediction precision is better than that of the traditional method.Predicted relative error is less than ±4%,so the prediction is high precise for the cold tandem mill.展开更多
In order to make good use of the ability to approach any function of BP (backpropagation) network and overcome its local astringency, and also make good use of the overallsearch ability of GA (genetic algorithms), a p...In order to make good use of the ability to approach any function of BP (backpropagation) network and overcome its local astringency, and also make good use of the overallsearch ability of GA (genetic algorithms), a proposal to regulate the network's weights using bothGA and BP algorithms is suggested. An integrated network system of MGA (mended genetic algorithms)and BP algorithms has been established. The MGA-BP network's functions consist of optimizing GAperformance parameters, the network's structural parameters, performance parameters, and regulatingthe network's weights using both GA and BP algorithms. Rolling forces of 4-stand tandem cold stripmill are predicted by the MGA-BP network, and good results are obtained.展开更多
In terms of tandem cold mill productivity and product quality, a multi-objective optimization model of rolling schedule based on cost fimction was proposed to determine the stand reductions, inter-stand tensions and r...In terms of tandem cold mill productivity and product quality, a multi-objective optimization model of rolling schedule based on cost fimction was proposed to determine the stand reductions, inter-stand tensions and rolling speeds for a specified product. The proposed schedule optimization model consists of several single cost fi.mctions, which take rolling force, motor power, inter-stand tension and stand reduction into consideration. The cost function, which can evaluate how far the rolling parameters are from the ideal values, was minimized using the Nelder-Mead simplex method. The proposed rolling schedule optimization method has been applied successfully to the 5-stand tandem cold mill in Tangsteel, and the results from a case study show that the proposed method is superior to those based on empirical formulae.展开更多
SmartCrown was a new system developed by VAI for improving the strip profile and flatness control first applied in 1700 mm tandem cold rolling mills at Wuhan Iron & Steel (Group) Corporation (WISCO). After tracin...SmartCrown was a new system developed by VAI for improving the strip profile and flatness control first applied in 1700 mm tandem cold rolling mills at Wuhan Iron & Steel (Group) Corporation (WISCO). After tracing and testing, the application of the conventional crown backup roll matching the SmartCrown work roll of the production mill led to heavy and nonuniform wear, and the edge spalling of the backup roll often occurred. A 3-dimension finite element model of roll stacks was established, which was used to analyze the above-mentioned problems, and it was found that the main reason was the highly nonuniform contact pressure distribution between the work roll and the backup roll. A new FSR (flexible shape backup roll) was developed and applied in 1700 mm tandem cold rolling mills. A lot of good actual effects of FSR, such as evident improvement in profile and flatness of strips, non-occurring edge spalling, wear uniform, and remarkable decrease in roll consumption were validated by long-term industrial applications.展开更多
The thermal scratch seriously affects the surface quality of the cold rolled stainless steel strip. Some researchers have carried out qualitative and theoretical studies in this field. However, there is currently a la...The thermal scratch seriously affects the surface quality of the cold rolled stainless steel strip. Some researchers have carried out qualitative and theoretical studies in this field. However, there is currently a lack of research on effective forecast and control of thermal scratch defects in practical production, especially in tandem cold rolling. In order to establish precise mathematical model of oil film thickness in deformation zone, the lubrication in cold rolling process of SUS410L stainless steel strip is studied, and major factors affecting oil film thickness are also analyzed. According to the principle of statistics, mathematical model of critical oil film thickness in deformation zone for thermal scratch is built, with fitting and regression analytical method, and then based on temperature comparison method, the criterion for deciding thermal scratch defects is put forward. Storing and calling data through SQL Server 2010, a software on thermal scratch defects control is developed through Microsoft Visual Studio 2008 by MFC technique for stainless steel in tandem cold rolling, and then it is put into practical production. Statistics indicate that the hit rate of thermal scratch is as high as 92.38%, and the occurrence rate of thermal scratch is decreased by 89.13%. Owing to the application of the software, the rolling speed is increased by approximately 9.3%. The software developed provides an effective solution to the problem of thermal scratch defects in tandem cold rolling, and helps to promote products surface quality of stainless steel strips in practical production.展开更多
Vibration issues of a five-stand tandem cold rolling mill were found in the steel production practice,and the experimental observation and numerical analysis indicated that the vibrations were related to the back-up r...Vibration issues of a five-stand tandem cold rolling mill were found in the steel production practice,and the experimental observation and numerical analysis indicated that the vibrations were related to the back-up roll bearing.The results were validated by replacing the back-up roll bearing with the new bearing resulting in 30%decline in vibration amplitude.Models describing the four-row cylindrical roller bearing and the vertical system of the cold rolling mill including the bearing were established.Moreover,the mechanisms of periodic excitation and amplified vibrations of fault-free bearing were explained theoretically,along with the analysis of bifurcation behaviors of the motion states of the roller bearing and rolling mill system.It is found that the energy transmitted between vibrations with different frequencies if multiple excitation frequencies in the rolling mill system were close.展开更多
In the high-speed cold tandem rolling process of thin plate,chatter or slip instability gives rise to the deterioration of equipment and product quality.Macroscopic instability behavior is closely related to interfaci...In the high-speed cold tandem rolling process of thin plate,chatter or slip instability gives rise to the deterioration of equipment and product quality.Macroscopic instability behavior is closely related to interfacial friction-lubrication con-dition which is generally characterized by the friction coefficient.However,with higher and higher speed requirements,the commonly used model of friction coefficient is no longer applicable and accurate.A novel approach is suggested to calculate the speed-dependent friction coefficient,in which the viscosity-pressure-temperature effects of the lubricant,surface roughness states of work rolls and rolled piece are comprehensively involved and the mixed flm lubrication theory is applied.Subsequently,the influences of friction coefficient on the instability of slip and chatter are investigated for a five-stand cold tandem rolling mill.On one side,the critical friction coefficient for each stand is determined by calculating the corresponding slip factor;on the other hand,the friction coefficient varying with rolling speed is combined with the model of theoretical critical rolling speed presented under constant friction coefficient,so that the speed threshold is determined.Furthermore,the stable and unstable regions corresponding to the rear three stands are individually discussed,and the technical strategies are proposed to suppress both slip and chatter frequently occurring in the actual rolling process.展开更多
Load distribution is the foundation of shape control and gauge control, in which it is necessary to take into account the shape control ability of TCM (tandem cold mill) for strip shape and gauge quality. First, the...Load distribution is the foundation of shape control and gauge control, in which it is necessary to take into account the shape control ability of TCM (tandem cold mill) for strip shape and gauge quality. First, the objective function of generalized shape and gauge decoupling load distribution optimization was established, which considered the rolling force characteristics of the first and last stands in TCM, the relative power, and the TCM shape control ability. Then, IGA (immune genetic algorithm) was used to accomplish this multi-objective load distribution optimization for TCM. After simulation and comparison with the practical load distribution strategy in one tandem cold mill, general- ized shape and gauge decoupling load distribution optimization on the basis of IGA approved good ability of optimizing shape control and gauge control simultaneously.展开更多
In the process of cold tandem rolling,chatter instability leads to serious impacts on enhancing rolling speed,improving product quality,reducing production cost and realizing intellectualization.Chatter occurs with th...In the process of cold tandem rolling,chatter instability leads to serious impacts on enhancing rolling speed,improving product quality,reducing production cost and realizing intellectualization.Chatter occurs with the rolling speed up to a certain threshold value,but the critical speed is determined by both product specifications and rolling schedules.A 5-stand cold tandem rolling mill whose first three stands and subsequent two stands,respectively,have four and six rolls was investigated by formulating its dynamic equations with the corresponding structure-process coupling.By applying the stability-based calculation model about the critical rolling speed in each stand,the system dynamic responses around the critical rolling speed were simulated,and the system eigenvalues which represent instability and characteristic frequencies were figured out.Thereafter,via combining the critical rolling speeds with the system dynamic behavior,a dynamics-based optimization model of rolling schedule for the 5-stand cold tandem system was proposed for the purposes of both the chatter suppression and rolling speed increase.In the optimization model,eight rolling technique parameters(four strip thicknesses and four tensions between the upstream and downstream stands)were taken as design variables,and the constraint conditions were set as no chatter instability in all five stands,and the optimization goal was to maximize the outlet speed of the final stand.The pattern search method was introduced to solve the optimization model.By applying such a dynamics-based optimization model for the 5-stand cold tandem rolling process,the chatter instability was suppressed effectively and the rolling efficiency was improved considerably;therefore,such an optimization model is expected to be valuable for intelligent manufacturing of rolling process.展开更多
The interstand tension control is one of the most important ways to meet tight tolerances for strip product quality during tandem cold rolling process. Using coordinate analysis and parabolic approximation for the mas...The interstand tension control is one of the most important ways to meet tight tolerances for strip product quality during tandem cold rolling process. Using coordinate analysis and parabolic approximation for the mass flow balance principle, the strip velocities eliminating the use of forward slips and backward slips were calculated. In order to reduce the effect of roll eccentricity on the tension measurement, a filter based on bilinear transformation was de- signed. Applying a first-order Taylor series approximation, the transfer function matrix model of interstand tension stress was derived. The actual measurements on-site and the final calculation results showed that the established model had high calculation accuracy and was beneficial for interstand tension control of random cold rolling process.展开更多
Using the effective matrix methods of flatness and profile control synthetically, the flatness and profile in- tegration control scheme for tandem cold mills is built in order to increase flatness and profile control ...Using the effective matrix methods of flatness and profile control synthetically, the flatness and profile in- tegration control scheme for tandem cold mills is built in order to increase flatness and profile control precision of tan- dem cold mills. Corresponding control strategies are adopted for various control objectives of different stands and the coordination control strategies of various stands are given, which makes the on-line flatness control cooperate with on-line profile control and implements the parallel control of different stands. According to the measured flatness and profile data of some 1550 mm tandem cold mills, the control scheme is verified and the result indicates that the scheme has high flatness and profile control precision with steady and reliable control process. A new way and method is supplied for researching shade control of tandem cold mills.展开更多
In the traditional rolling force model of tandem cold rolling mills,the calculation of the deformation resistance of the strip head does not consider the actual size and mechanical properties of the incoming material,...In the traditional rolling force model of tandem cold rolling mills,the calculation of the deformation resistance of the strip head does not consider the actual size and mechanical properties of the incoming material,which results in a mismatch between the deformation resistance setting and the actual state of the incoming material and thus affects the accuracy of the rolling force during the low-speed rolling process of the strip head.The inverse calculation of deformation resistance was derived to obtain the actual deformation resistance of the strip head in the tandem cold rolling process,and the actual process parameters of the strip in the hot and cold rolling processes were integrated to create the cross-process dataset as the basis to establish the support vector regression(SVR)model.The grey wolf optimization(GWO)algorithm was used to optimize the hyperparameters in the SVR model,and a deformation resistance prediction model based on GWO–SVR was established.Compared with the traditional model,the GWO–SVR model shows different degrees of improvement in each stand,with significant improvement in stands S3–S5.The prediction results of the GWO–SVR model were applied to calculate the head rolling setting of a 1420 mm tandem rolling mill.The head rolling force had a similar degree of improvement in accuracy to the deformation resistance,and the phenomenon of low head rolling force setting from stands S3 to S5 was obviously improved.Meanwhile,the thickness quality and shape quality of the strip head were improved accordingly,and the application results were consistent with expectations.展开更多
Aiming at the problem of insufficient prediction accuracy of strip flatness at the outlet of cold tandem rolling,the prediction performance of strip flatness based on different ensemble methods was studied and a high-...Aiming at the problem of insufficient prediction accuracy of strip flatness at the outlet of cold tandem rolling,the prediction performance of strip flatness based on different ensemble methods was studied and a high-precision prediction ensemble model of strip flatness at the outlet was established.Firstly,based on linear regression(LR),K nearest neighbors(KNN),support vector regression,regression trees(RT),and backpropagation neural network(BPN),bagging,boosting,and stacking ensemble methods were used for ensemble experiments.Secondly,three existing ensemble models,i.e.,random forest,extreme random tree(ET)and extreme gradient boosting,were used to conduct experiments and compare the results.The research shows that bagging,boosting,and stacking three ensemble methods have the most significant improvement in the prediction accuracy of the regression trees model,which is increased by 5.28%,6.51%,and 5.32%,respectively.At the same time,the stacking ensemble method improves both the simple model and the complex model,and the improvement effect on the simple base model is the greatest,which is 4.69%higher than that of the base model KNN.Comparing all of the ensemble models,the stacking ensemble model of level-1(ET,AdaBoost-RT,LR,BPN)paired with level-2(LR)was discovered to be the best model(EALB-LR)and can be further studied for industrial applications.展开更多
基金Item Sponsored by Natural Science Foundation of Hebei Province of China(E2004000206)National Natural Science Foundation of China(50675186)
文摘The rolling force model for cold tandem mill was put forward by using the Elman dynamic recursive network method,based on the actual measured data.Furthermore,a good assumption is put forward,which brings a full universe of discourse self-adjusting factor fuzzy control,closed-loop adjusting,based on error feedback and expertise into a rolling force prediction model,to modify prediction outputs and improve prediction precision and robustness.The simulated results indicate that the method is highly effective and the prediction precision is better than that of the traditional method.Predicted relative error is less than ±4%,so the prediction is high precise for the cold tandem mill.
文摘In order to make good use of the ability to approach any function of BP (backpropagation) network and overcome its local astringency, and also make good use of the overallsearch ability of GA (genetic algorithms), a proposal to regulate the network's weights using bothGA and BP algorithms is suggested. An integrated network system of MGA (mended genetic algorithms)and BP algorithms has been established. The MGA-BP network's functions consist of optimizing GAperformance parameters, the network's structural parameters, performance parameters, and regulatingthe network's weights using both GA and BP algorithms. Rolling forces of 4-stand tandem cold stripmill are predicted by the MGA-BP network, and good results are obtained.
基金Project(51074051)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(N110307001)supported by the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,China
文摘In terms of tandem cold mill productivity and product quality, a multi-objective optimization model of rolling schedule based on cost fimction was proposed to determine the stand reductions, inter-stand tensions and rolling speeds for a specified product. The proposed schedule optimization model consists of several single cost fi.mctions, which take rolling force, motor power, inter-stand tension and stand reduction into consideration. The cost function, which can evaluate how far the rolling parameters are from the ideal values, was minimized using the Nelder-Mead simplex method. The proposed rolling schedule optimization method has been applied successfully to the 5-stand tandem cold mill in Tangsteel, and the results from a case study show that the proposed method is superior to those based on empirical formulae.
文摘SmartCrown was a new system developed by VAI for improving the strip profile and flatness control first applied in 1700 mm tandem cold rolling mills at Wuhan Iron & Steel (Group) Corporation (WISCO). After tracing and testing, the application of the conventional crown backup roll matching the SmartCrown work roll of the production mill led to heavy and nonuniform wear, and the edge spalling of the backup roll often occurred. A 3-dimension finite element model of roll stacks was established, which was used to analyze the above-mentioned problems, and it was found that the main reason was the highly nonuniform contact pressure distribution between the work roll and the backup roll. A new FSR (flexible shape backup roll) was developed and applied in 1700 mm tandem cold rolling mills. A lot of good actual effects of FSR, such as evident improvement in profile and flatness of strips, non-occurring edge spalling, wear uniform, and remarkable decrease in roll consumption were validated by long-term industrial applications.
基金Supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51174057,51274062)National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(863 Program,Grant No.2012AA03A503)
文摘The thermal scratch seriously affects the surface quality of the cold rolled stainless steel strip. Some researchers have carried out qualitative and theoretical studies in this field. However, there is currently a lack of research on effective forecast and control of thermal scratch defects in practical production, especially in tandem cold rolling. In order to establish precise mathematical model of oil film thickness in deformation zone, the lubrication in cold rolling process of SUS410L stainless steel strip is studied, and major factors affecting oil film thickness are also analyzed. According to the principle of statistics, mathematical model of critical oil film thickness in deformation zone for thermal scratch is built, with fitting and regression analytical method, and then based on temperature comparison method, the criterion for deciding thermal scratch defects is put forward. Storing and calling data through SQL Server 2010, a software on thermal scratch defects control is developed through Microsoft Visual Studio 2008 by MFC technique for stainless steel in tandem cold rolling, and then it is put into practical production. Statistics indicate that the hit rate of thermal scratch is as high as 92.38%, and the occurrence rate of thermal scratch is decreased by 89.13%. Owing to the application of the software, the rolling speed is increased by approximately 9.3%. The software developed provides an effective solution to the problem of thermal scratch defects in tandem cold rolling, and helps to promote products surface quality of stainless steel strips in practical production.
文摘Vibration issues of a five-stand tandem cold rolling mill were found in the steel production practice,and the experimental observation and numerical analysis indicated that the vibrations were related to the back-up roll bearing.The results were validated by replacing the back-up roll bearing with the new bearing resulting in 30%decline in vibration amplitude.Models describing the four-row cylindrical roller bearing and the vertical system of the cold rolling mill including the bearing were established.Moreover,the mechanisms of periodic excitation and amplified vibrations of fault-free bearing were explained theoretically,along with the analysis of bifurcation behaviors of the motion states of the roller bearing and rolling mill system.It is found that the energy transmitted between vibrations with different frequencies if multiple excitation frequencies in the rolling mill system were close.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51775038).
文摘In the high-speed cold tandem rolling process of thin plate,chatter or slip instability gives rise to the deterioration of equipment and product quality.Macroscopic instability behavior is closely related to interfacial friction-lubrication con-dition which is generally characterized by the friction coefficient.However,with higher and higher speed requirements,the commonly used model of friction coefficient is no longer applicable and accurate.A novel approach is suggested to calculate the speed-dependent friction coefficient,in which the viscosity-pressure-temperature effects of the lubricant,surface roughness states of work rolls and rolled piece are comprehensively involved and the mixed flm lubrication theory is applied.Subsequently,the influences of friction coefficient on the instability of slip and chatter are investigated for a five-stand cold tandem rolling mill.On one side,the critical friction coefficient for each stand is determined by calculating the corresponding slip factor;on the other hand,the friction coefficient varying with rolling speed is combined with the model of theoretical critical rolling speed presented under constant friction coefficient,so that the speed threshold is determined.Furthermore,the stable and unstable regions corresponding to the rear three stands are individually discussed,and the technical strategies are proposed to suppress both slip and chatter frequently occurring in the actual rolling process.
基金Item Sponsored by National Significant Technology and Equipment Research Project of China (ZZ02-13B-03)
文摘Load distribution is the foundation of shape control and gauge control, in which it is necessary to take into account the shape control ability of TCM (tandem cold mill) for strip shape and gauge quality. First, the objective function of generalized shape and gauge decoupling load distribution optimization was established, which considered the rolling force characteristics of the first and last stands in TCM, the relative power, and the TCM shape control ability. Then, IGA (immune genetic algorithm) was used to accomplish this multi-objective load distribution optimization for TCM. After simulation and comparison with the practical load distribution strategy in one tandem cold mill, general- ized shape and gauge decoupling load distribution optimization on the basis of IGA approved good ability of optimizing shape control and gauge control simultaneously.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51775038).
文摘In the process of cold tandem rolling,chatter instability leads to serious impacts on enhancing rolling speed,improving product quality,reducing production cost and realizing intellectualization.Chatter occurs with the rolling speed up to a certain threshold value,but the critical speed is determined by both product specifications and rolling schedules.A 5-stand cold tandem rolling mill whose first three stands and subsequent two stands,respectively,have four and six rolls was investigated by formulating its dynamic equations with the corresponding structure-process coupling.By applying the stability-based calculation model about the critical rolling speed in each stand,the system dynamic responses around the critical rolling speed were simulated,and the system eigenvalues which represent instability and characteristic frequencies were figured out.Thereafter,via combining the critical rolling speeds with the system dynamic behavior,a dynamics-based optimization model of rolling schedule for the 5-stand cold tandem system was proposed for the purposes of both the chatter suppression and rolling speed increase.In the optimization model,eight rolling technique parameters(four strip thicknesses and four tensions between the upstream and downstream stands)were taken as design variables,and the constraint conditions were set as no chatter instability in all five stands,and the optimization goal was to maximize the outlet speed of the final stand.The pattern search method was introduced to solve the optimization model.By applying such a dynamics-based optimization model for the 5-stand cold tandem rolling process,the chatter instability was suppressed effectively and the rolling efficiency was improved considerably;therefore,such an optimization model is expected to be valuable for intelligent manufacturing of rolling process.
基金Item Sponsored by Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities of China(N110307001)
文摘The interstand tension control is one of the most important ways to meet tight tolerances for strip product quality during tandem cold rolling process. Using coordinate analysis and parabolic approximation for the mass flow balance principle, the strip velocities eliminating the use of forward slips and backward slips were calculated. In order to reduce the effect of roll eccentricity on the tension measurement, a filter based on bilinear transformation was de- signed. Applying a first-order Taylor series approximation, the transfer function matrix model of interstand tension stress was derived. The actual measurements on-site and the final calculation results showed that the established model had high calculation accuracy and was beneficial for interstand tension control of random cold rolling process.
基金Sponsored by National High-Tech Research and Development Project of China (2009AA04Z143)Hebei Provincial Great Natural Science Foundation of China (E2006001038)Hebei Provincial Science and Technology Project of China (10212101D)
文摘Using the effective matrix methods of flatness and profile control synthetically, the flatness and profile in- tegration control scheme for tandem cold mills is built in order to increase flatness and profile control precision of tan- dem cold mills. Corresponding control strategies are adopted for various control objectives of different stands and the coordination control strategies of various stands are given, which makes the on-line flatness control cooperate with on-line profile control and implements the parallel control of different stands. According to the measured flatness and profile data of some 1550 mm tandem cold mills, the control scheme is verified and the result indicates that the scheme has high flatness and profile control precision with steady and reliable control process. A new way and method is supplied for researching shade control of tandem cold mills.
基金This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China(Grant No.2020YFB1713600)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51975043)+1 种基金China Postdoctoral Science Foundation(Grant No.2021M69035)Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grant Nos.FRF-TP-19-002A3 and FRF-TP-20-105A1).
文摘In the traditional rolling force model of tandem cold rolling mills,the calculation of the deformation resistance of the strip head does not consider the actual size and mechanical properties of the incoming material,which results in a mismatch between the deformation resistance setting and the actual state of the incoming material and thus affects the accuracy of the rolling force during the low-speed rolling process of the strip head.The inverse calculation of deformation resistance was derived to obtain the actual deformation resistance of the strip head in the tandem cold rolling process,and the actual process parameters of the strip in the hot and cold rolling processes were integrated to create the cross-process dataset as the basis to establish the support vector regression(SVR)model.The grey wolf optimization(GWO)algorithm was used to optimize the hyperparameters in the SVR model,and a deformation resistance prediction model based on GWO–SVR was established.Compared with the traditional model,the GWO–SVR model shows different degrees of improvement in each stand,with significant improvement in stands S3–S5.The prediction results of the GWO–SVR model were applied to calculate the head rolling setting of a 1420 mm tandem rolling mill.The head rolling force had a similar degree of improvement in accuracy to the deformation resistance,and the phenomenon of low head rolling force setting from stands S3 to S5 was obviously improved.Meanwhile,the thickness quality and shape quality of the strip head were improved accordingly,and the application results were consistent with expectations.
基金This study was supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2017YFB0304100)Key Projects of the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51634002).
文摘Aiming at the problem of insufficient prediction accuracy of strip flatness at the outlet of cold tandem rolling,the prediction performance of strip flatness based on different ensemble methods was studied and a high-precision prediction ensemble model of strip flatness at the outlet was established.Firstly,based on linear regression(LR),K nearest neighbors(KNN),support vector regression,regression trees(RT),and backpropagation neural network(BPN),bagging,boosting,and stacking ensemble methods were used for ensemble experiments.Secondly,three existing ensemble models,i.e.,random forest,extreme random tree(ET)and extreme gradient boosting,were used to conduct experiments and compare the results.The research shows that bagging,boosting,and stacking three ensemble methods have the most significant improvement in the prediction accuracy of the regression trees model,which is increased by 5.28%,6.51%,and 5.32%,respectively.At the same time,the stacking ensemble method improves both the simple model and the complex model,and the improvement effect on the simple base model is the greatest,which is 4.69%higher than that of the base model KNN.Comparing all of the ensemble models,the stacking ensemble model of level-1(ET,AdaBoost-RT,LR,BPN)paired with level-2(LR)was discovered to be the best model(EALB-LR)and can be further studied for industrial applications.