Can Eurasia Experience a Cold Winter under a Third-Year La Nina in 2022/23?

The Northern Hemisphere(NH)often experiences frequent cold air outbreaks and heavy snowfalls during La Nina winters.In 2022,a third-year La Nina event has exceeded both the oceanic and atmospheric thresholds since spring and is predicted to reach its mature phase in December 2022.Under such a significant global climate signal,whether the Eurasian Continent will experience a tough cold winter should not be assumed,despite the direct influence of mid-to high-latitude,large-scale atmospheric circulations upon frequent Eurasian cold extremes,whose teleconnection physically operates by favoring Arctic air invasions into Eurasia as a consequence of the reduction of the meridional background temperature gradient in the NH.In the 2022/23 winter,as indicated by the seasonal predictions from various climate models and statistical approaches developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,abnormal warming will very likely cover most parts of Europe under the control of the North Atlantic Oscillation and the anomalous anticyclone near the Ural Mountains,despite the cooling effects of La Nina.At the same time,the possibility of frequent cold conditions in mid-latitude Asia is also recognized for this upcoming winter,in accordance with the tendency for cold air invasions to be triggered by the synergistic effect of a warm Arctic and a cold tropical Pacific on the hemispheric scale.However,how the future climate will evolve in the 2022/23 winter is still subject to some uncertainty,mostly in terms of unpredictable internal atmospheric variability.Consequently,the status of the mid-to high-latitude atmospheric circulation should be timely updated by medium-term numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction for the necessary date information and early warnings.

The 2020/21 Extremely Cold Winter in China Influenced by the Synergistic Effect of La Niña and Warm Arctic

In the first half of winter 2020/21,China has experienced an extremely cold period across both northern and southern regions,with record-breaking low temperatures set in many stations of China.Meanwhile,a moderate La Niña event which exceeded both oceanic and atmospheric thresholds began in August 2020 and in a few months developed into its mature phase,just prior to the 2020/21 winter.In this report,the mid−high-latitude large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere,which were forced by the negative phase of Arctic Oscillation,a strengthened Siberian High,an intensified Ural High and a deepened East Asian Trough,are considered to be the direct reason for the frequent cold surges in winter 2020/21.At the same time,the synergistic effect of the warm Arctic and the cold tropical Pacific(La Niña)provided an indispensable background,at a hemispheric scale,to intensify the atmospheric circulation anomalies in middle-to-high latitudes.In the end,a most recent La Niña prediction is provided and the on-coming evolution of climate is discussed for the remaining part of the 2020/21 winter for the purpose of future decision-making and early warning.

Study on the extremely cold winter of 1670 over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River

The snow-cover days over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River （MLRYR） in the winter of 1670 were extracted from Chinese historical documents. By these records, the winter temperature anomalies （compared to the mean of 1961-1990） recorded at seven meteorological stations and the regional mean winter temperature were estimated. The results show that： （1） There was an average of about 30 snow-cover days over the MLRYR region in 1670, ranging from 11-20 days in Shanghai and eastern Zhejiang to 5140 days in eastern Hunan Province. The snow-cover days averaged about 40 days in Anqing and Nan- cheng, and ranged from 30 to 40 days in Quzhou, Jingdezhen, and Nanchang; and （2） the regional mean winter temperature in 1670 was estimated to be approximately 4.0 ℃ lower than that of 1961-1990. The maximum negative anomaly of 5.6℃ occurred in Nanchang and the minimum anomaly of-2.8 ℃ was detected in Quzhou. Both of these were lower than that of the coldest winter during the instrumental observation period of 1951-2010. This research could not only provide a method to es- timate historical climate extremes, but also provide a background to understand the recent instrumentally climate extremes.

Research on Passive Design Optimization about an Experimental Rural Residence in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Region of China

In China, rural residential environment under the poor construction measures has not been satisfactory due to the backward infrastructure of countryside and the lacking of professional planning, which will result in considerable amount of energy consumption in the future. The economy of rural residences in the hot summer and cold winter region of China is relative developed, but the indoor thermal environmental quality is not so good. In this paper, the design strategies directed by passive design ideas for a small experimental rural residential building located in Hangzhou city was introduced and researched in response to hot summer and cold winter climate. Through modeling solution undertaken by Ecotect software, the building performance was simulated and analyzed for the optimization of design factors, such as shape, roof angle, insulation system, shading devices, as well as day-lighting system. Based on the above study, a set of appropriate energy-saving technologies were provided for improving the new rural residences construction in Hangzhou, which should also be recommended to other projects constructed in the same climate region.

Research on the Development of Green Building Technology in Hot Summer and Cold Winter Area under the Background of Carbon Neutrality:A Case Study of Zhuzhou City

Carbon sequestration and emission reduction in the construction industry plays an important role in China’s goal of achieving carbon neutrality.Research in Zhuzhou city scored 42 since the assessment of the green building project situation as the research object,in hot summer and cold winter areas of analysis and evaluation on the development of green building technology,and then sums up the carbon neutral background the priority areas and tasks for the development of green building techniques,optimization of the construction industry into a new era under the background of green development to provide the reference.

Suitability and Construction of Self-Insulation Walls in the Hot Summer and Cold Winter Zone of Southern Shaanxi

In this paper, the suitability and construction technology of self-insulation walls were studied under the specific climatic conditions and regional resources of Hanzhong and Ankang in the hot summer and cold winter zone of Southern Shaanxi. Through the calculation of heat transfer coefficient and thermal inertia index, combined with the specifications of the shale hollow brick and aerated concrete block of Hanzhong and Ankang in southern Shaanxi, the thermal performance and suitable thickness of the external wall using self-insulation materials that meet the Design Standard for Energy Efficiency of Residential Buildings(DBJ61-65-2011) in Shaanxi Province were obtained. The results showed that the self-insulation wall had technical suitability in the hot summer and cold winter zone. The research results provide not only a theoretical basis for the external wall insulation design of urban residential buildings in the hot summer and cold winter zone of southern Shaanxi, but also a reference for designers to carry out energy-saving design of external walls of residential buildings in other similar climate zones.

The Theoretically Studies and Field Testing of Self-Insulation Exterior Wall in the Hot Summer and Cold Winter Zone

The energy efficiency design of the exterior wall in the buildings of the hot summer and cold winter zone of China should consider the heat prevention in summer and the heat insulation in winter. The self-insulation of the exterior?wall is a more feasible design to satisfy the energy efficiency of buildings in the?zone. However, the systematic research is urgently needed for the self-insulation of the exterior wall in the hot summer and cold winter zone of China. The paper tested the thermal performance of the common non-clay materials such as shale sintered hollow brick, sand autoclaved aerated concrete block, etc. by means of indoor experiments. The energy efficiency effect of the common materials was verified using dynamic calculation soft PKPM and several constitutions of exterior wall with different main bricks and insulation materials on the heat bridge were simulated, too. Besides, the tests of the thermal performance of exterior wall in real constructions were carried out to testify the practical effect of the recommended constitutions of exterior wall with different main bricks and insulation materials on the heat bridge. The conclusions are: the physical and thermal properties of the six non-clay wall material are better than the clay porous brick;the thermal performance of the non-clay brick can be improved obviously through the rational arrangement of the holes;shale sintered hollow brick after increasing the holes and rationalizing the hole arrangement and sand autoclaved aerated concrete block are recommended for buildings in the hot summer and cold winter area of China. The dynamic calculation results show that the thermal performances?of the non-clay materials are all satisfied with the energy efficiency;The heat transfer coefficient of the exterior wall with composition?③,?in which?the main wall was sand autoclaved aerated concrete block and the material on the heat bridge was sand autoclaved aerated concrete plate, is the smallest among the three recommended compositions.

Development of window opening models for residential building in hot summer and cold winter climate zone of China

This study monitors the open/closed states of the windows in 16 residential apartments in representative cities of the hot summer and cold winter zone of China,along with outdoor air temperature,outdoor relative humidity and outdoor PM2.5 concentration in 2017,to investigate the window opening/closing behavior.Three window opening models are developed.All the models are validated by modeling a typical residential apartment to compare the predicted indoor CO_(2)concentration with monitored data.It is found that the window opening probability is negatively correlated to both outdoor PM2.5 concentration and outdoor relative humidity,and the probability of window opening reaches the peak value when the outdoor air temperature is 23.7℃.In terms of season,the shortest window opening duration occurs in winter due to the cold outdoor air temperature and high outdoor PM2.5 concentration.Finally,by comparing the correlation between the measured date and simulation results of indoor CO_(2)concentration,this study provides an appropriate window opening model for reference.

A Cold Winter and A Warming Earth

A bone-chilling winter throughout the Northern Hemisphere does not refute global warming As Arctic winds blow over North America, Europe and East Asia, I many parts of north China have

The 2020 Summer Floods and 2020/21 Winter Extreme Cold Surges in China and the 2020 Typhoon Season in the Western North Pacific

China experienced significant flooding in the summer of 2020 and multiple extreme cold surges during the winter of 2020/21.Additionally,the 2020 typhoon season had below average activity with especially quiet activity during the first half of the season in the western North Pacific(WNP).Sea surface temperature changes in the Pacific,Indian,and Atlantic Oceans all contributed to the heavy rainfall in China,but the Atlantic and Indian Oceans seem to have played dominant roles.Enhancement and movement of the Siberian High caused a wavier pattern in the jet stream that allowed cold polar air to reach southward,inducing cold surges in China.Large vertical wind shear and low humidity in the WNP were responsible for fewer typhoons in the first half of the typhoon season.Although it is known that global warming can increase the frequency of extreme weather and climate events,its influences on individual events still need to be quantified.Additionally,the extreme cold surge during 16–18 February 2021 in the United States shares similar mechanisms with the winter 2020/21 extreme cold surges in China.

Effects of Nitrogen Management on the Yield of Winter Wheat in Cold Area of Northeastern China

A plot experiment including four treatments, CK （N 105 kg ha-1 as urea, including a basal N application of 35 kg ha-I and a topdressing N 70 kg ha-1 at turned green stage） and optimized N management （OPT1, OPT2 and OPT3, applied two-thirds, one-third and two-fifths N at jointing stage, respectively, total N 60 kg ha-l）, was conducted to evaluate the effects of nitrogen management on growth and N uptake of winter wheat （Triticum aestivum）, Dongnong 1, which is the first highly cold tolerant winter wheat in China. Index of population quality, N uptake and yield were determined. The ear-bearing tiller rate was increased by above 12%, and the leaf area index, biomass and N uptake were significantly decreased （P〈O.05） at jointing stage. OPT treatments increased the grain to leaf area ratio at heading stage, the dry matter weight and N uptake after heading by 14.3-27.9%, 11.6-28.7% and 118.1-161.8 %, respectively. The yield of the OPT treatments was increased by 14.2-37.5% compared with CK, and there was a significant difference （P〈0.05） between CK and OPT1 treatments. Harvest index and N partial factor productivity （PFP, kg grain yield per kg N applied） was clearly enhanced from 0.4 and 35.6 kg, respectively for CK to an average of 0.48 （P〈0.05） and 77.6 kg （P〈0.05） in the OPT treatments. These results indicated that the optimized N management increased the harvest index, yield and N use efficiency by decreasing the N application rate and postponing N application time, improved wheat population quality, controlled excessive growth in the vegetative stages and increased dry matter and N accumulation rates after heading.

Ventilated Double Skin Facades in Hot-Summer and Cold-Winter Zones in China

Double-skin facades(DSF)are a technique developed for colder climates,so few people think about whether or not it can also be used for hot-summer and cold-winter zones in China.After analyzing the problems of using DSF for hot-summer zones,this paper explored on the possibility of applying DSF in hot-summer and cold-winter zones in China.The main existing research methods for DSF were also collected and commented.If properly managed,the ventilated DSF with controlled shading devices can be used even in hot summer in China.

A Numerical Study on the Winter Monsoon and Cold Surge over East Asia

By using the improved regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）, a numerical study has been undertaken for the East Asia region over a period of 5 years （1998-2002） in an effort to evaluate the model＇s ability to reproduce the winter monsoon conditions that were observed. The results showed that the model can successfully simulate the basic characteristics of the winter monsoon circulations, including the location and intensity of the cold-surface, high-pressure system, as well as the wind patterns and the intensity of the winter monsoon. The simulated occurrence frequency and regions of the cold surge were consistent with the observations. The simulated rainfall distribution over China was consistent with the observations collected in South China. The features of the simulated moisture transport were also in good agreement with the observations that were derived from the NCEP reanalysis data, indicating that moisture transport coming from the Bay of Bengal trough plays a crucial role in supplying moisture needed for precipitation in South China. In addition, the moisture transport coming from the near-equatorial west-Pacific was also important. These two branches of moisture transport converged in South China, as a prerequisite for occurrence of the precipitation that was observed there. Heat budgets have shown that the development of a heat sink over the East Asian continent was remarkable and its thermal contrast relative to the neighboring seas was the important forcing factor for the winter monsoon activity. The simulation also indicated that the significant differences in circulation patterns and rainfalls during the winters of 1997/98 and 1998/99 were affected by cold and warm ENSO events, respectively. The above analysis demonstrated the model＇s ability to simulate the East Asian winter monsoon.

Anatomical Structure Comparison Between Leaves of Two Winter Wheat Cultivars with Different Cold/Freezing Tolerance Under Low Temperature Stress

Winter wheat （Triticum aestivum） cultivars Dongnongdongmai 1 with strong cold/freezing tolerance and Jimai 22 with weak cold/freezing tolerance were used for investigating the difference of microstructure and ultrastructure between leaves of two cultivars under low temperature stress （5℃ and -15 ℃） using optical and electron microscope. The results showed that there was no obvious difference between leaves of Dongnongdongmai 1 and Jimai 22 in microstructure. However, the difference between those leaves was distinct in ultrastructure. The grana lamella and stroma lamella were stacked regularly and arranged parallelly along the long axis of chloroplasts in cv. Dongnongdongmai 1, while the arrangement directions of thylakoids in Jimai 22＇s leaves were so irregular as to form various angles with the long axis of chloroplasts. At -15℃, the mitochondrias were swelled to be round and the structure of cristaes became blurry in both cultivars＇ leaves, while some cristaes of Jimai 22 disappeared. These results would provide theoretical evidence for selecting cold/freezing tolerant winter wheat germplasm resources

Decadal Variations of Winter Extreme Cold Days in Northern China

Weather and climate extremes often lead to dramatic losses in our society and warrant improvement of their understanding. In this study, the decadal variations in the first two dominant empirical orthogonal function (EOF) modes of winter extreme cold days (WECDs) in northern China (NC) have been investigated. Results show that both EOF modes show distinct decadal variations that together explain around 24% of total variances. At the decadal time scale, the EOF1 is closely related to the decadal Arctic Oscillation (AO);the negative AO can lead to spatially consistent increase of WECDs in NC. On the other hand, the decadal EOF2 can be influenced by the decadal El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The decadal El Niño can result in the large-scale negative sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the Eurasian continent west of the western NC and the positive ones over western China. The anomalous southwesterlies between the contrasted SLP anomalies can advect the warmer air from the lower latitudes to the western NC, decrease the WECDs there, and contribute to the east-west asymmetric WECD anomalies in NC. The impacts of El Niño are confirmed by the numerical simulations in the Atmospheric Model 2.1 (AM2.1) when forced by the El Niño-related sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the tropical Pacific.

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF 500 hPa GEOPOTENTIAL AND SST FIELD OF EXTREMELY SEVERE COLD MONTHS IN SOUTH CHINA WINTER

The region of south China is sometimes subject to major climatic catastrophes in winter. To have a clear understanding, the time in which extremely severe cold months occur in the south China wintertime over the past 45 years are determined and characteristics of the 500-hPa geopotential fields and SST fields are studied for the simultaneous and preceding 6-month periods. Similarity exists in the 500-hPa geopotential fields between each current severely cold month, with the geopotential pattern of being high in the north, but low in the south, of Asian-Pacific region and meridional circulation developing. The work presents anomalies of the months with significant differences in the 500-hPa geopotential field of the previous periods. The SSTA is continuous in the distribution from each extremely severe cold winter month back to the 6 months leading up to it for the region of south China while the SST pattern is of El Ni?o in January and the preceding 1 ~ 6 months for equatorial eastern Pacific but of La Ni?a in February and December. It is concluded that the prediction of severely cold winter months are possible with the use of the geopotential field at 500 hPa and the SST fields for the months ahead of the target time.

Testing of Rice Stocks for Their Survival of Winter Cold

Rice cultivation is considered to be initiated by vegetative propagation of sprout from wild perennial stocks. To test whether any presently cultivated rice cultivar can survive the winter cold or not, rice stocks of several cultivars including indica and japonica types were placed in a shallow pool from October to April in 2015–2016 and 2016–2017. During the coldest period of the winter, the bases of the stocks were placed 5–6 cm below the surface of water, where temperatures ranged from 3 ℃ to 5 ℃, while the surface was frozen for two or three times and covered with snow for a day. Only one cultivar, Nipponbare, a japonica type, survived the winter cold and regenerated sprouts in the end of April or early May. A possibility to develop perennial cultivation of rice or perennial hybrid rice is discussed.

Maintenance and development of the Ural high and its contribution to severe cold wave activities in winter 2020/21

2020年底至2021年初,连续两次强寒潮入侵中国东部地区,导致大范围强降温.本文研究这两次寒潮的特征和形成机理.主要结果如下:从2020年12月中旬到2021年1月中旬,乌拉尔山地区维持一宽阔的高压脊.脊前北风的维持和加强导致局地斜压性增加,导致下游横槽槽底等高线梯度加大,冷平流加强,西伯利亚高压加强和向南扩张.准定常波能量传播是乌拉尔山阻塞发展和持续的主要原因.

Characteristics of Atmospheric Circulation Associated with Cold Surge Occurrences in East Asia:A Case Study During 2005/06 Winter

The characteristics of the upper-level circulation and thermodynamical properties for the period when two distinct cold surges broke out over East Asia during the 2005/06 winter are investigated. From early December 2005 to early January 2006, exceptionally cold weather lasted for approximately one month due to two successive cold surges that took place on 2 December 2005 and 2 January 2006, respectively. This study reveals that both involve the upper-tropospheric circulation, which induces the amplification and expansion of the surface Siberian high toward East Asia, but arose from different causes： the former is caused by the upper-level blocking originated from the North Pacific and the latter is caused by the upper-level wave train across the Eurasian Continent. In particular, it is suggested that the lower-tropospheric anomalous wind caused by upper-level circulation anomalies and a steep meridional temperature gradient amplified by phase-locked annual cycle combined to induce very strong cold advection in East Asia, which resulted in exceptionally cold weather that lasted for several weeks. The present results emphasize that the characteristics of the upper-tropospheric circulation can be considered as important precursors to cold surge occurrences in East Asia.