A Numerical Study of the Effects of Coastal Geometry in the Bohai Sea on Storm Surges Induced by Cold-Air Outbreaks

Strom surges are not only determined by the atmospheric forcing,but also influenced by the coastal geometry and bathymetry.The Bohai Sea,as one of China’s marginal seas,is seriously harmed by storm surges,especially those caused by cold-air outbreaks.As the coastline of the Bohai Sea has changed evidently these years,storm surges may have new characteristics due to the changes in the local geometry.This paper aims to find out these new characteristics by primarily investigating the influence of the changes in the local geometry on storm surges with numerical methods.20 scenarios were constructed based on the track and inten-sity of the cold-air outbreaks to describe the actual situation.By analyzing the model results of the control scenarios,it is found that the main changes of the maximum surge elevation occur in the Bohai Bay and the Laizhou Bay.At the top of the Bohai Bay,the maximum surge elevation is obviously decreased,while in the Laizhou Bay,it is enhanced by the growing Yellow River Delta.This,however,does not suggest that the storm surges in the Laizhou Bay become more serious.A comparison of the risk assessment of storm surges in the Tanggu,Huanghua and Yangjiaogou regions shows that the risk of storm surges in these coastal areas is lightened by the evolvement of the coastal geometry.Particularly near Yangjiaogou,though the maximum surge elevation becomes higher to subject more areas to risk,the risk is still reduced by the evolvement of the Yellow River Delta.

Epidemic management in a measles outbreak in 2023,the return of vaccine-preventable diseases:A single center,retrospective observational study

Objective:To investigate the importance of immunization in preventing measles infection and to determine the most useful laboratory tests for confirmation of measles.Methods:This study included pediatric cases evaluated with a presumed diagnosis of measles between December 2022 and June 2023,at Marmara University Pendik Training and Research Hospital.The effects of vaccination status and underlying disease on the clinical course,treatments,and complications were evaluated.Results:In total,117 patients were enrolled in the study with a median age of 80 months(IQR:32.5-125.0).Twelve patients with contact history were asymptomatic and had an underlying disorder,and intravenous immunoglobulin was given to them for post-exposure prophylaxis.Fifty-one patients had confirmed measles diagnosis.Ribavirin treatment was given to three patients(a newborn,a girl with rhabdomyosarcoma,and a healthy boy)with respiratory distress.Seventy-eight percent of confirmed measles cases were unvaccinated,and all hospitalized cases were unvaccinated or under-vaccinated.Four full-vaccinated children had confirmed measles infection.Measles PCR from nasopharyngeal swabs was negative in all of them,and their diagnosis was established with anti-measles IgM positivity.Conclusions:The measles vaccine is the most effective way to protect from measles and measles-related complications.Although measles can also occur in fully vaccinated patients,the disease is milder than in unvaccinated patients.Using ELISA and RT-PCR tests together may be beneficial in patients with high clinical suspicion for early diagnosis.

Epidemiology of Mpox Outbreaks and Implications for Surveillance in Imo State, Nigeria

Mpox disease is caused by a double-stranded DNA virus, genus Orthopoxvirus of the family Poxviridae. The incubation period is usually 6 to 13 days but can range from 5 to 21 days while symptoms and signs may persist for 2 to 5 weeks. Although, the clinical features are usually less severe when compared to the deadly smallpox, the disease can be fatal with case fatality rate between 1% and 10%. In Imo State, Nigeria, there has been a changing epidemiology of the disease in the last 6 years and the frequency and geographic distribution of cases have progressively increased. This study aims to conduct a review of the disease epidemiology between 2017 and 2023 and implications for surveillance in Imo State. Surveillance data from the Surveillance Outbreak Response and Management System (SORMAS) was extracted between January 2017 and December 2023 across the 27 Local Government Areas (LGAs) of Imo State. A line list of 231 suspected cases was downloaded into an excel template and analyzed using SPSS® version 20 software. Analysis was done using descriptive statistics and associations were tested using Fischer’s exact at 0.05 level of significance. Of the 231 suspected cases, 57.1% (132) were males, 42.9% (99) were females and the modal age group was between the ages of 0 - 4 (32.5%). Eight (8) LGAs (districts) accounted for 71% (n = 164) of all the suspected cases. 21.2% (49) were confirmed positive, 27 males (55.1%) and 22 females (44.9%) (p > 0.05). Modal age group was 20 - 24 (22.4%, n = 11), 18% (9) were children under 14 years, p > 0.05. Case fatality rate was 8% (n = 4). There was no significant association between mortality and age group. Five (5) LGAs accounted for about 60% (29) of all confirmed cases. These LGAs contribute only 20% to the total population in the State. Only 5.6% and 4% of suspected and confirmed cases, respectively, had knowledge of contact with an infectious source. The study described the epidemiology of Mpox outbreaks between 2017 and 2023 and the findings have significant implications on detection and outbreak response activities.

Morphological and molecular analyses of a Philine kinglipini outbreak in summer of 2022 in Jiaozhou Bay,China

A sudden and unprecedented outbreak of molluscan Philine kinglipini occurred in summer 2022 in Jiaozhou Bay,Shandong,China,causing substantial damage to local mariculture industry of the Manila clam Ruditapes philippinarum.Although P.kinglipini has been found in many coastal regions of China,the molecular research of P.kinglipini has not been extensively studied,making it difficult to accurately identify and track P.kinglipini samples in field using molecular methods.Samples were collected during the outbreak and their morphological features and molecular sequences were analyzed.Results show that the causative species of the outbreak was P.kinglipini.The mitochondrial genome(mt DNA)of P.kinglipini was constructed for the first time,based on which phylogenetic analysis of the mt DNAs of P.kinglipini and related species in the order Cephalaspidea was carried out.As revealed by metabarcoding analysis of 18S rDNA V4,the seasonal change of P.kinglipini and closely related Philine species was striking with peaks between April and August.Therefore,metabarcoding analysis is applicable tool for monitoring the bloom development of P.kinglipini and related species.This study generated for the first time essential molecular marker sequences and mtDNA of P.kinglipini,which provided a reference for future characterization and monitoring of its outbreaks and for phylogenetic analysis of Philine species.

Characteristics and Mechanisms of Persistent Wet–Cold Events with Different Cold-air Paths in South China

We investigate the characteristics and mechanisms of persistent wet–cold events(PWCEs)with different types of coldair paths.Results show that the cumulative single-station frequency of the PWCEs in the western part of South China is higher than that in the eastern part.The pattern of single-station frequency of the PWCEs are“Yangtze River(YR)uniform”and“east–west inverse”.The YR uniform pattern is the dominant mode,so we focus on this pattern.The cold-air paths for PWCEs of the YR uniform pattern are divided into three types—namely,the west,northwest and north types—among which the west type accounts for the largest proportion.The differences in atmospheric circulation of the PWCEs under the three types of paths are obvious.The thermal inversion layer in the lower troposphere is favorable for precipitation during the PWCEs.The positive water vapor budget for the three types of PWCEs mainly appears at the southern boundary.

Dengue outbreaks in northern Nigeria: Evaluating the recommended Takeda vaccine and future prevention strategies

Dengue fever,caused by the dengue virus(DENV),poses a significant public health challenge globally,with Nigeria experiencing sporadic outbreaks.A clear understanding of the dengue burden has not been achieved in Nigeria,just as in other African countries.Understanding the epidemiology and burden of dengue fever is essential for effective prevention and control strategies.This paper examines the recent dengue outbreaks in northern Nigeria,particularly in Sokoto state,and evaluates the recommended Takeda dengue vaccine(TDV)along with future prevention strategies.Despite limited surveillance and underreporting,dengue fever is endemic in Nigeria(with over 5 million cases and 5000 dengue-related deaths in 2023),with recent outbreaks indicating a growing concern.The TDV,a live attenuated tetravalent vaccine,has shown promise in preventing dengue fever,but challenges such as vaccine acceptance and access-ibility need to be addressed.Global urbanization contributes to the disease's spread,which is influenced by factors such as population density,cultural beliefs,water storage practices,hygiene,and water supply accessibility.Future prevention strategies must focus on government intervention,community practices,and innovative vector control measures to mitigate the spread of DENV in Nigeria.This study will serve as a valuable reference for policy-makers,researchers,and clinicians in the management and control of DENV in Nigeria and Africa as a whole.

Epidemiological Characteristics and Spatiotemporal Distribution Patterns of Human Norovirus Outbreaks in China, 2012–2018

Objective To clarify the epidemiological characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of human norovirus outbreaks in China, identify high-risk areas, and provide guidance for epidemic prevention and control.Methods This study analyzed 964 human norovirus outbreaks involving 50,548 cases in 26 provinces reported from 2012 to 2018. Epidemiological analysis and spatiotemporal scanning analysis were conducted to analyze the distribution of norovirus outbreaks in China.Results The outbreaks showed typical seasonality, with more outbreaks in winter and fewer in summer, and the total number of infected cases increased over time. Schools, especially middle schools and primary schools, are the most common settings of norovirus outbreaks, with the major transmission route being life contact. More outbreaks occurred in southeast coastal areas in China and showed significant spatial aggregation. The highly clustered areas of norovirus outbreaks have expanded northeast over time.Conclusion By identifying the epidemiological characteristics and high-risk areas of norovirus outbreaks, this study provides important scientific support for the development of preventive and control measures for norovirus outbreaks, which is conducive to the administrative management of high-risk settings and reduction of disease burden in susceptible areas.

Monkeypox outbreak: a novel threat after COVID-19?

Dear Editor,Monkeypox is a zoonosis caused by monkeypox virus (MPXV)infection first reported in Central and West Africa[1]. The first outbreak of monkeypox outside of Africa was reported in2003[2].Afterthat,Israel,theUnitedKingdom(UK),Singapore, and other countries have reported monkeypox cases among travelers back from Nigeria since 2018[3].

Differences in the US Mpox Outbreaks of 2003 and 2022: A Review

Objectives: This research aims to focus on the differences in mpox outbreaks that occurred in 2003 and 2022 in the United States. Methods: We searched the following databases Medline, Google Scholar, Gayle Power Search, PubMed, and Springerlink using the following search terms “mpox virus”, “MPX”, “mpox in the US”, “US mpox virus 2003”, “US mpox virus 2022”, “US mpox outbreak 2003” and US mpox outbreak 2022”. The only articles selected were those written between 2003 and 2022. Results: Findings showed more Mpox research was conducted during the first US Mpox outbreak in 2003 compared to the US Mpox outbreak in 2022. Findings also indicated that the mpox outbreak of 2003 consisted of more animal-to-human transmissions acquired from sick prairie dogs compared to more human-to-human from an infected international traveler from Nigeria to the US. Conclusion: Major differences in the mpox outbreaks in the US include the number, location of lesions, and transmission type. We recommend further research to increase awareness of the human-to-human transmission of mpox via sexual contact to assist healthcare professionals and public health leaders in providing prevention and wellness in US communities.

Review of the prevalence,diagnostics,and containment measures of the current mpox outbreak

Monkeypox(mpox),is a disease from the Poxviridae family that can cause several serious medical issues.This mini-review sought to analyze the existing literature regarding the current mpox outbreak with a focus on the prevalence,diagnostics,and containment measures.Mpox cases have been reported to World Health Organization(WHO)from 85 Member States in all six WHO regions during the period of January 1,2022,through August 3,2022.Standardized or optimized guidelines for the clinical care of patients with mpox are limited,particularly in low-resource settings.In an effort to achieve guidance and meet standards,special attention should be paid to this outbreak in order to eradicate such a rare infectious disease by analyzing prevention and control measures.Patient outcomes may also be poor,and their illnesses may last for a long time.The spectrum of clinical symptoms,including complications and sequelae,as well as aspects of the illness may be indicators of sickness severity and complications;therefore,its clinical presentation must be better understood to improve containment measures.In addition,it is important to create and evaluate a standard of care that takes a variety of parameters into account,including antiviral,immune therapies,and clinical metrics that are particular to mpox.The global emergence of mpox has presented new challenges for public health and has called for further investigation into its epidemiological profile across international contexts.

A Campylobacteriosis Outbreak Caused by One Asymptomatic Food Handler Carrier

In August 2021,three students with diarrhea from the same school visited a local hospital in the S district of Beijing.An epidemic investigation showed that there were more students with diarrhea in the same school and they had one meal together.Campylobacter jejuni was isolated from both patients with diarrhea and asymptomatic food handlers;however,the latter also carried Campylobacter coli.Phylogenomic analysis showed that there was a campylobacteriosis outbreak among the students,and the asymptomatic food handler may have been the source of the infection.Routine inspection and surveillance for Campylobacter is needed for the food producing staff,particularly those cooking in the cafeteria in schools or other public food services.

Investigation on Outbreak of Sesamia inferens and Smut in Cane-growing Regions of Yunnan Province

[Objectives]This study was conducted to clarify the outbreak and disaster characteristics of Sesamia inferens Walker and smut in cane-growing regions in the low-latitude plateau of Yunnan Province,where there is continuous high temperature and drought in spring and summer.[Methods]A systematic investigation and analysis was conducted on different varieties in different types of fields in 16 cane-growing regions with outbreak of S.inferens and smut in Yunnan from 2019 to 2021.[Results]The outbreak of S.inferens and smut in cane-growing regions in the low-latitude plateau of Yunnan Province resulted in an average percent of dry hearts in the range of 17.3%-56.3%,and as high as 84.0%in severe cases.70%thiamethoxam seed treatment dispersible powder and clothianidin or thiamethoxam fertilizer granules were ineffective against S.inferens,while 10%monosultap·thiamethoxam or 10%clothianidin·monosultap granules had a significant control efficacy on S.inferens.The average diseased plant rate ranged from 14.8%to 89.7%in susceptible varieties with smut,and was as high as 100%in severe cases.ROC 1,Yuetang 93-159,Yuetang 00-236,and Liucheng 05-136 had strong resistance,with an average diseased plant rate of 0-5.5%and the highest rate of 7.6%.S.inferens and smut both broke out in cane-growing regions with an altitude below 1200 m.It is recommended to pay attention to disease and pest monitoring in cane-growing regions with an altitude below 1200 m,and combine it with the management of new plants and ratoon plants to effectively prevent and control the first and second generation of S.inferens-infested seedlings from March to May.It is also recommended to strengthen the promotion and application of excellent disease-resistant varieties,so as to achieve a reasonable distribution of varieties and fundamentally control the outbreak and epidemic of sugarcane smut.[Conclusions]This study provides a basis for the effective prevention and control of catastrophic S.inferens and smut caused by extreme climate.

Impact of lockdown policies during the COVID-19 outbreak on a trauma center of a tertiary hospital in China

BACKGROUND Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)is a major and costly public health emergency.AIM To investigate the impact of China’s lockdown policies during the COVID-19 outbreak on the level I trauma center of a tertiary comprehensive hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine.METHODS All patients admitted to our trauma center during a lockdown in 2020 and the same period in 2019 were enrolled.We collected data on demographics,daily visits,injury type,injury mechanism,injury severity score,and patient management for comparative analysis.RESULTS The total number of patients in the trauma center of our hospital decreased by 50.38%during the COVID-19 Lockdown in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019.The average number of trauma visits per day in 2019 was 47.94,compared to 23.79 in 2020.Comparing the patients’demographic data,loss of employment was the most predominate characteristic in 2020 compared to 2019,while there was no significant difference in gender,age,and marital status between both periods.During the lockdown period,the proportion of traffic accident-related injuries,injuries due to falls greater than 1.5 m,and mechanical injuries decreased significantly,whereas the proportion of injuries caused by falls less than 1.5 m,cuts,assault,bites,and suicidal tendencies and other injuries increased relatively.In addition,the proportion of patients with minor injuries increased and serious injuries decreased during the lockdown.The hospitalization rate increased significantly,and there was no significant difference in emergency surgery and death rates.CONCLUSION The lockdown policies during the COVID-19 outbreak significantly altered the number and mechanism of traumatic events in our hospital,which can be monitored regularly.Our results suggest that mandatory public health prevention and control measures by the government can reduce the incidence of traumatic events and the severity of traumatic injuries.Emergency surgery and mortality rates remain high,increased because of factors such as family injury and penetrating injury,and hospitalization rates have increased significantly.Therefore,our trauma center still needs to be fully staffed.Finally,from the perspective of the injury mechanism,indoor trauma is a major risk during a lockdown,and it is particularly important to develop prevention strategies for such trauma to reduce the medical burden of the next catastrophic epidemic.

The aggregate and sectoral time‑varying market efficiency during crisis periods in Turkey:a comparative analysis with COVID‑19 outbreak and the global financial crisis

This study aims to examine the time-varying efficiency of the Turkish stock market’s major stock index and eight sectoral indices,including the industrial,financial,service,information technology,basic metals,tourism,real estate investment,and chemical petrol plastic,during the COVID-19 outbreak and the global financial crisis(GFC)within the framework of the adaptive market hypothesis.This study employs multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis to illustrate these sectors’multifractality and short-and long-term dependence.The results show that all sectoral returns have greater persis-tence during the COVID-19 outbreak than during the GFC.Second,the real estate and information technology industries had the lowest levels of efficiency during the GFC and the COVID-19 outbreak.Lastly,the fat-tailed distribution has a greater effect on multifractality in these industries.Our results validate the conclusions of the adaptive market hypothesis,according to which arbitrage opportunities vary over time,and contribute to policy formulation for future outbreak-induced economic crises.

高位推动、注意力配置与中国政策扩散模式——基于三个典型案例的比较分析

传统渐进模式和以政策爆发为典型样态的非渐进模式,共同勾绘出中国政策扩散实践的整体图景,但鲜有研究对二者的生成机理进行比较阐释。依循注意力基础观的“情境—过程—结果”逻辑进路,注意力视域下的中国政策扩散分析框架包含“高位推动—府际注意力配置—政策扩散”三大核心链条。多案例比较分析结果发现:由高位推动嵌入主导的“吸纳-辐射”过程,是诱致压力型体制下大规模政策扩散的决定性力量;受府际注意力配置机制驱动,地方源创新的竞争性政绩建构,实现了对上级注意力的有效吸引,高层注意力的纵向传导,催化下级潜在采纳者注意力的再分配与聚合,形构出“地方首创—上级吸纳推广—地方跟进采纳”的一般扩散路径。不同高位推动策略所蕴含的政治势能存在结构性差异,约束政策采纳议程设置的响应速度和集中程度,最终形塑出渐进或爆发的差异化政策扩散模式。

基于发热门诊留观数据的大连市新型冠状病毒感染本地暴发疫情预警3种方法比较

目的以发热门诊留观病例为基础数据,筛选出应用于大连市新型冠状病毒感染本地暴发疫情预警的最佳方法。方法分别采用Poisson分布、累计和控制图、指数加权移动平均法3种方法建立新型冠状病毒感染本地暴发疫情预警模型,并以灵敏度、特异度、约登指数、阳性预测值、阴性预测值等指标为评价指标,从中选择最优预警模型。结果以2021年7月1日—12月19日和2022年2月24日—7月21日期间大连市28家医疗机构上报的发热门诊留观病例为基础数据,建立了3种预警模型。结果显示,Poisson分布预警模型中,当检验水准取值为0.03时,预警灵敏度可达94.59%,特异度为41.38%,阳性预测值为33.98%,阴性预测值为96.00%,在2021年7月1日—12月19日和2022年2月24日—7月21日期间的3起本地暴发疫情中,均最早提前6 d提出预警信号;累计和控制图预警模型中,当允偏量设置为1.5和判定值设置为2时,模型的约登指数最大(0.17),模型的预警灵敏度为21.67%,特异度为95.12%,阳性预测值为52.00%,阴性预测值为83.27%,并在2021年的11月份疫情中分别提前2 d和1 d提出预警信号;指数加权移动平均法预警模型中,当权重因子λ设置为0.6和0.7,标准差系数设置为1时约登指数最大(0.16),模型的预警灵敏度为35.48%,特异度为80.33%,阳性预测值为31.43%,阴性预测值为83.05%,并在2021年11月和2022年4月疫情中分别最早6 d和5 d提出预警信号。结论以发热门诊留观病例作为基础数据,采用Poisson分布建立新型冠状病毒感染暴发疫情预警模型,相对于累计和控制图法和指数加权移动平均法可获得较理想的预警效果。

国外非结核分枝杆菌医院感染暴发的研究现状:1985—2023年

非结核分枝杆菌在环境中广泛存在,可因医疗用水、器械污染等引起血流、皮肤和软组织感染,并导致感染暴发。本文通过在PubMed检索非结核分枝杆菌暴发事件相关的文献,总结分析1985—2023年国外非结核分枝杆菌医院感染暴发情况,以期为今后非结核分枝杆菌感染防控措施的制定和监管提供参考。

重大突发传染病疫情下护理应急队伍的构建与管理

在重大突发传染病疫情下,护理应急队伍的构建与管理至关重要。护理人员在传染病疫情救援团队中所占比例最大,其应急能力是影响重大传染病疫情救援质量的重要因素之一。护理应急队伍的存在可以迅速响应疫情,采取有效的控制措施,降低病情的扩散和传播。护理应急队伍的有效构建和管理能够提供关键的支持和保障,帮助应对突发疫情,保护公众的健康与安全。文章首先概述了重大突发传染病疫情下护理应急队伍的构建存在的问题,提出了重大突发传染病疫情下护理应急队伍的构建对策:加强人员配备和培训、组建整体性传染病护理应急队伍、加强护理应急物资准备等。

传染性流行病对儿科就诊系统的冲击与应对策略

近年来由于传染性流行病的盛行,我国各地卫生系统均受到一定程度冲击,尤其是儿科就诊系统。短期内儿科就诊需求激增,与有限的儿科医疗资源之间的矛盾加剧,同时也揭示了我国儿科发展中存在的短板问题。本文主要讨论我国儿科就诊系统在面临规模性感染冲击时的现状,分析其背后的原因,并提出针对性政策建议,包括提升儿科学科发展与服务能力、优化儿科医疗资源布局、加强基层儿科诊疗能力及促进有序分级诊疗行为。

医联体内护士传染病相关应急能力现状及影响因素调查

目的探讨医联体内护士传染病突发公共卫生事件应急能力的现状及影响因素。方法采用便利抽样的方法,选取2022年1月—2023年1月404名医联体内护士进行问卷调查分析。统计404名不同特征护士应急能力得分、应急能力得分较低和较高的条目、应急能力得分情况,采用logistic多元分层回归分析医联体内护士传染病突发公共卫生事件应急能力得分的影响因素。结果一级指标准备得分最高的项目为“救援能力”(126.67±10.89)分,得分最低的项目为“风险沟通能力”(3.02±0.77)分;二级指标得分最高项目为“预防能力评分”(13.67±1.07)分,得分最低的项目是“应急演练评分”(3.43±0.78)分。三级医院、男性、年龄>39岁、临床经验>14年、硕士、有救援工作经验、有突发事件应急救援经验、过去5年参加过新发传染病事件应急演练、过去5年参加过常见传染病或新发传染病培训的护士应急能力得分高于一二级医院、女性、年龄<31岁和31~39岁、临床经验<6年和6~14年、本科和专科、无救援工作经验、无突发事件应急救援经验、过去5年未参加过新发传染病事件应急演练、过去5年未参加过常见传染病或新发传染病培训的护士,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。性别、年龄、学历、医院级别、临床经验、突发事件应急救援经验、过去5年参加新发传染病事件应急演练、过去5年参加常见传染病或新发传染病培训均为应急能力的主要影响因素(P<0.05)。结论医联体内护士应急能力评分处于中等水平。护理管理人员应选择适当的方法对医联体内护士进行传染病突发事件应急能力的演练和培训,以提高其应急能力。