This paper analyses two methods of calculating default probability adopted by foreign companies. Then, the paper suggests several methods of calculating loan default probability applicable to commercial banks in China...This paper analyses two methods of calculating default probability adopted by foreign companies. Then, the paper suggests several methods of calculating loan default probability applicable to commercial banks in China, and gives the inadequacy of historic data in China.展开更多
In this research,an econometric with panel data using Ordinary least squares OLS model is constructed following the guidelines recommended by the EBA stress test methodology for 2016.The findings indicate that macroec...In this research,an econometric with panel data using Ordinary least squares OLS model is constructed following the guidelines recommended by the EBA stress test methodology for 2016.The findings indicate that macroeconomic factors affecting defaults are the expected ones in the Spanish credit institutions.However,loan impairments do not follow the patterns that a priori would be normal.Divergent is outcomes in defaults and impairments:the Non-Performing Loans(NPL)is pro-cyclical and impairment losses are counter-cyclical.展开更多
The global financial crisis （GFC） has placed the creditworthiness of banks under intense scrutiny. In particular, capital adequacy has been called into question. Current capital requirements make no allowance for ca...The global financial crisis （GFC） has placed the creditworthiness of banks under intense scrutiny. In particular, capital adequacy has been called into question. Current capital requirements make no allowance for capital erosion caused by movements in the market value of assets. This paper examines default probabilities of Swiss banks under extreme conditions using structural modeling techniques. Conditional Value at Risk （CVaR） and Conditional Probability of Default （CPD） techniques are used to measure capital erosion. Significant increase in Probability of Default （PD） is found during the GFC period. The market asset value based approach indicates a much higher PD than external ratings indicate. Capital adequacy recommendations are formulated which distinguish between real and nominal capital based on asset fluctuations.展开更多
文摘This paper analyses two methods of calculating default probability adopted by foreign companies. Then, the paper suggests several methods of calculating loan default probability applicable to commercial banks in China, and gives the inadequacy of historic data in China.
文摘In this research,an econometric with panel data using Ordinary least squares OLS model is constructed following the guidelines recommended by the EBA stress test methodology for 2016.The findings indicate that macroeconomic factors affecting defaults are the expected ones in the Spanish credit institutions.However,loan impairments do not follow the patterns that a priori would be normal.Divergent is outcomes in defaults and impairments:the Non-Performing Loans(NPL)is pro-cyclical and impairment losses are counter-cyclical.
文摘The global financial crisis （GFC） has placed the creditworthiness of banks under intense scrutiny. In particular, capital adequacy has been called into question. Current capital requirements make no allowance for capital erosion caused by movements in the market value of assets. This paper examines default probabilities of Swiss banks under extreme conditions using structural modeling techniques. Conditional Value at Risk （CVaR） and Conditional Probability of Default （CPD） techniques are used to measure capital erosion. Significant increase in Probability of Default （PD） is found during the GFC period. The market asset value based approach indicates a much higher PD than external ratings indicate. Capital adequacy recommendations are formulated which distinguish between real and nominal capital based on asset fluctuations.
