Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse ...Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.展开更多
Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for commun...Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.展开更多
When analyze the uncertainty of the cost and the schedule of the spaceflight project, it is needed to know the value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient. This paper deduces the schedule distribution, consider...When analyze the uncertainty of the cost and the schedule of the spaceflight project, it is needed to know the value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient. This paper deduces the schedule distribution, considering the effect of the cost, and proposes the estimation formula of the correlation coefficient between the in（schedule） and the cost. On the basis of the fact and Taylor expansion, the relation expression between the schedule-cost correlation coefficient and the in-schedule-cost correlation coefficient is put forward. By analyzing the value features of the estimation formula of the in-schedule-cost correlation coefficient, the general rules are proposed to ascertain the value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient. An example is given to demonstrate how to approximately amend the schedule-cost correlation coefficient based on the historical statistics, which reveals the traditional assigned value is inaccurate. The universality of this estimation method is analyzed.展开更多
This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not qu...This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events）.Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that（a）project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,（b）while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,（c）improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and（d）projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.展开更多
The assumption of static and deterministic conditions is common in the practice of construction project planning. However, at the construction phase, projects are subject to uncertainty. This may lead to serious sched...The assumption of static and deterministic conditions is common in the practice of construction project planning. However, at the construction phase, projects are subject to uncertainty. This may lead to serious schedule disruptions and, as a consequence, serious revisions oft.he schedule baseline. The aim of the paper is developing a method for constructing robust project schedules with a proactive procedure. Robust project scheduling allows for constructing stable schedules with time buffers introduced to cope with multiple disruptions during project execution. The method proposed by the authors, based on Monte Carlo simulation technique and mathematical programming for buffer sizing optimization, was applied to scheduling an example project. The results were compared, in terms of schedule stability, to those of the float factor heuristic procedttre.展开更多
To evaluate the cost risk and the schedule risk of the spaceflight project,the schedule-cost(S-C) correlation coefficient is directly appointed according to the experts' experience usually.This paper deduces SDMCU...To evaluate the cost risk and the schedule risk of the spaceflight project,the schedule-cost(S-C) correlation coefficient is directly appointed according to the experts' experience usually.This paper deduces SDMCU(the schedule distribution model considering the effect of the cost uncertainty),and then proposes the approximate formula to estimate the ln(S)-C correlation coefficient based on the models of SDMCU and CDMSU(the cost distribution model considering the effect of the schedule uncertainty).Furthermore,an approximate relationship expression of the S-C and the ln(S)-C correlation coefficients is put forward according to general facts and the Taylor expansion,and advanced by means of mass numerical validation is the general rule of obtaining the estimation value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient based on the historical data.展开更多
Sensor scheduling is used to improve the sensing performance in the estimation of targets’states.However,few papers are on the sensor scheduling for target detection with guiding information.This letter can remedy th...Sensor scheduling is used to improve the sensing performance in the estimation of targets’states.However,few papers are on the sensor scheduling for target detection with guiding information.This letter can remedy this deficiency.A risk-based target detection method with guiding information is provided firstly,based on which,the sensor scheduling approach is aiming at reducing the risk and uncertainty in target detection,namely risk-based sensor scheduling method.What should be stressed is that the Prediction Formula in sensor scheduling is proposed.Lastly,some examples are conducted to stress the effectiveness of this proposed method.展开更多
To enhance the cost-effectiveness of bulk hybrid AC-DC power systems and promote wind consumption,this paper proposes a two-stage risk-based robust reserve scheduling(RRRS)model.Different from traditional robust optim...To enhance the cost-effectiveness of bulk hybrid AC-DC power systems and promote wind consumption,this paper proposes a two-stage risk-based robust reserve scheduling(RRRS)model.Different from traditional robust optimization,the proposed model applies an adjustable uncertainty set rather than a fixed one.Thereby,the operational risk is optimized together with the dispatch schedules,with a reasonable admissible region of wind power obtained correspondingly.In addition,both the operational base point and adjustment capacity of tielines are optimized in the RRRS model,which enables reserve sharing among the connected areas to handle the significant wind uncertainties.Based on the alternating direction method of multipliers(ADMM),a fully distributed framework is presented to solve the RRRS model in a distributed way.A dynamic penalty factor adjustment strategy(DPA)is also developed and applied to enhance its convergence properties.Since only limited information needs to be exchanged during the solution process,the communication burden is reduced and regional information is protected.Case studies on the 2-area 12-bus system and 3-area 354-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and approach.展开更多
文摘Vietnam has become a major market for construction enterprises from East Asian countries, especially from China, to participate in international project contracting, but serious schedule delays have important adverse effects on local government and foreign investment companies. Based on international engineering contracting mode of Vietnam highway BOT construction projects, we discussed the drive financial factors of schedule delays, using the methods of exploratory factor analysis and questionnaire survey, and evaluated the effects of various factors which are through regression analysis. The empirical results show that the five categories of financial factors, including the policy change, slow payment, financial mismanagement, financial market changes and lack of fiscal, have significant effects on schedule delay. Furtherly, we suggested that strengthening policy research and improving financial management ability should be used to reduce the influence of relevant financial factors on schedule delay, to improve the profitability of international businesses and the motivation of foreign enterprises to participate in Vietnam highway project.
文摘Construction project scheduling is one of the most critical factors for project success measurement.Not only for the project planning but for construction process management,the scheduling is the basic tool for communication between the owner and the project manager.By developing the schedule before the project starts,the owner knows in advance that the expected timeline of the project.By preparing construction process scheduling,the owner and general contractor can better manage the subcontractors,sub-trades progress,materials storage and deliveries,labors schedule and equipment set up which will eventually save time,money and hassle.Basically,Critical Path Method(CPM) is commonly used in the construction industry.CPM is a deterministic method that assumes that through the network,there is at least one path that determines the project duration and that the path is the critical path.CPM does not consider the uncertainty in the activities;rather it assumes that each activity can be finished in the given situation.Program Evaluation and Review Technique(PERT) is a stochastic technique which is based on the assumption that the duration of a single activity can be described by a probability density function.PERT takes into account the uncertainty during the construction process and has been created out of the need to plan,schedule and control complex projects with many uncertainties.The PERT approach is stated in some books and papers,but there is no deep investigation on the application in the schedule risk assessment.This paper investigates the PERT work process and takes a valuable try on the construction schedule risk assessment by using case studies.The utilization in the estimate the construction liquidated damage with the uncertainties is performed,which also can be used in the insurance company to calculate the insurance premium.
基金This project was supported by Weapon System Advanced Research Foundation(51419010204KG01) and National ScienceFoundation of China(70272002).
文摘When analyze the uncertainty of the cost and the schedule of the spaceflight project, it is needed to know the value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient. This paper deduces the schedule distribution, considering the effect of the cost, and proposes the estimation formula of the correlation coefficient between the in（schedule） and the cost. On the basis of the fact and Taylor expansion, the relation expression between the schedule-cost correlation coefficient and the in-schedule-cost correlation coefficient is put forward. By analyzing the value features of the estimation formula of the in-schedule-cost correlation coefficient, the general rules are proposed to ascertain the value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient. An example is given to demonstrate how to approximately amend the schedule-cost correlation coefficient based on the historical statistics, which reveals the traditional assigned value is inaccurate. The universality of this estimation method is analyzed.
文摘This article considers threats to a project slipping on budget,schedule and fit-for-purpose.Threat is used here as the collective for risks（quantifiable bad things that can happen）and uncertainties（poorly or not quantifiable bad possible events）.Based on experience with projects in developing countries this review considers that（a）project slippage is due to uncertainties rather than risks,（b）while eventuation of some bad things is beyond control,managed execution and oversight are stil the primary means to keeping within budget,on time and fit-for-purpose,（c）improving project delivery is less about bigger and more complex and more about coordinated focus,effectiveness and developing thought-out heuristics,and（d）projects take longer and cost more partly because threat identification is inaccurate,the scope of identified threats is too narrow,and the threat assessment product is not integrated into overall project decision-making and execution.Almost by definition,what is poorly known is likely to cause problems.Yet it is not just the unquantifiability and intangibility of uncertainties causing project slippage,but that they are insufficiently taken into account in project planning and execution that cause budget and time overruns.Improving project performance requires purpose-driven and managed deployment of scarce seasoned professionals.This can be aided with independent oversight by deeply experienced panelists who contribute technical insights and can potentially show that diligence is seen to be done.
文摘The assumption of static and deterministic conditions is common in the practice of construction project planning. However, at the construction phase, projects are subject to uncertainty. This may lead to serious schedule disruptions and, as a consequence, serious revisions oft.he schedule baseline. The aim of the paper is developing a method for constructing robust project schedules with a proactive procedure. Robust project scheduling allows for constructing stable schedules with time buffers introduced to cope with multiple disruptions during project execution. The method proposed by the authors, based on Monte Carlo simulation technique and mathematical programming for buffer sizing optimization, was applied to scheduling an example project. The results were compared, in terms of schedule stability, to those of the float factor heuristic procedttre.
文摘To evaluate the cost risk and the schedule risk of the spaceflight project,the schedule-cost(S-C) correlation coefficient is directly appointed according to the experts' experience usually.This paper deduces SDMCU(the schedule distribution model considering the effect of the cost uncertainty),and then proposes the approximate formula to estimate the ln(S)-C correlation coefficient based on the models of SDMCU and CDMSU(the cost distribution model considering the effect of the schedule uncertainty).Furthermore,an approximate relationship expression of the S-C and the ln(S)-C correlation coefficients is put forward according to general facts and the Taylor expansion,and advanced by means of mass numerical validation is the general rule of obtaining the estimation value of the schedule-cost correlation coefficient based on the historical data.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation(grant 61573374)。
文摘Sensor scheduling is used to improve the sensing performance in the estimation of targets’states.However,few papers are on the sensor scheduling for target detection with guiding information.This letter can remedy this deficiency.A risk-based target detection method with guiding information is provided firstly,based on which,the sensor scheduling approach is aiming at reducing the risk and uncertainty in target detection,namely risk-based sensor scheduling method.What should be stressed is that the Prediction Formula in sensor scheduling is proposed.Lastly,some examples are conducted to stress the effectiveness of this proposed method.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2016YFB0900100)the State Key Program of National Natural Science Foundation of China (51537010)the project of State Grid Corporation of China (52110418000T)。
文摘To enhance the cost-effectiveness of bulk hybrid AC-DC power systems and promote wind consumption,this paper proposes a two-stage risk-based robust reserve scheduling(RRRS)model.Different from traditional robust optimization,the proposed model applies an adjustable uncertainty set rather than a fixed one.Thereby,the operational risk is optimized together with the dispatch schedules,with a reasonable admissible region of wind power obtained correspondingly.In addition,both the operational base point and adjustment capacity of tielines are optimized in the RRRS model,which enables reserve sharing among the connected areas to handle the significant wind uncertainties.Based on the alternating direction method of multipliers(ADMM),a fully distributed framework is presented to solve the RRRS model in a distributed way.A dynamic penalty factor adjustment strategy(DPA)is also developed and applied to enhance its convergence properties.Since only limited information needs to be exchanged during the solution process,the communication burden is reduced and regional information is protected.Case studies on the 2-area 12-bus system and 3-area 354-bus system illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed model and approach.
