Representation of Infinite-Dimensional Forward Price Models in Commodity Markets

We study the forward price dynamics in commodity markets realised as a process with values in a Hilbert space of absolutely continuous functions defined by Filipovi´c(Consistency problems for Heath–Jarrow–Morton interest rate models,2001).The forward dynamics are defined as the mild solution of a certain stochastic partial differential equation driven by an infinite-dimensional Lévy process.It is shown that the associated spot price dynamics can be expressed as a sum of Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes,or more generally,as a sum of certain stationary processes.These results link the possibly infinite-dimensional forward dynamics to classical commodity spot models.We continue with a detailed analysis of multiplication and integral operators on the Hilbert spaces and show that Hilbert–Schmidt operators are essentially integral operators.The covariance operator of the Lévy process driving the forward dynamics and the diffusion term can both be specified in terms of such operators,and we analyse in several examples the consequences on model dynamics and their probabilistic properties.Also,we represent the forward price for contracts delivering over a period in terms of an integral operator,a case being relevant for power and gas markets.In several examples,we reduce our general model to existing commodity spot and forward dynamics.

Systemic Risk in Chinese Commodity Futures Markets: A Graph Theory Analysis

This paper sets out to explore the contagion of systemic risk in Chinese commodity futures market based on specific tools of the graph-theory.More precisely,we use minimum spanning trees as a way to identify the most probable path for the transmission of prices shocks.In the sample of 30 kinds of Chinese commodity futures,we construct the MST and obtain the most probable and the shortest path for the transmission of a prices shock.We find that metal futures play an important role in commodity futures market and copper stands at the heart of the system(The core position of the system is very important for the transmission of system risk).And our results also reveal that when the risk occurs,the MST structure becomes smaller,leading to the most effective transmission path of risk becomes shorter.

Analysis on the Problems and Countermeasures of Enterprise Relationship Marketing

Under the current economic situation,companies should fully realize the importance of relationship marketing,establish good and stable relationships with all related parties,strengthen exchanges and cooperation with each other,achieve win-win benefits,and promote corporate marketing activities.For the success of the company,we will conduct in-depth investigations in the economic market,improve the products in time,and make plans based on the current development situation.

Hot Money Flows, Cycles in Primary Commodity Prices, and Financial Control in Developing Countries

Because the U.S. Federal Reserve＇s monetary policy is at the center of the world dollar standard, it has a first-order impact on global financial stability. However, except during international crises, the Fed focuses on domestic American economic indicators and generally ignores collateral damage from its monetary policies on the rest of the world. Currently, ultra-low interest rates on short-term dollar assets ignite waves of hot money into Emerging Markets （EM） with convertible currencies. When each EM central bank intervenes to prevent its individual currency from appreciating, collectively they lose monetary control, inflate, and cause an upsurge in primary commodity prices internationally. These bubbles burst when some accident at the center, such as a banking crisis, causes a return of the hot money to the United States （and to other industrial countries） as commercial banks stop lending to foreign exchange speculators. World prices of primary products then collapse. African countries with exchange controls and less convertible currencies are not so attractive to currency speculators. Thus, they are less vulnerable than EM to the ebb and flow of hot money. However, Afi-ican countries are more vulnerable to cycles in primary commodity prices because food is a greater proportion of their consumption, and--being less industrialized--they are of their commodity exports. Supply-side more vulnerable to fluctuations in prices shocks, such as a crop failure anywhere in the world, can affect the price of an individual commodity. But joint fluctuations in the prices of all primary products--minerals, energy, cereals, and so on--reflect monetary conditions in the world economy as determined by the ebb and flow of hot money from the United States, and increasingly from other industrial countries with near-zero interest rates.