The application of neural networks to comprehensive prediction by seismology prediction method

BP neural networks is used to mid-term earthquake prediction in this paper. Some usual prediction parameters of seismology are used as the import units of neural networks. And the export units of neural networks is called as the character parameter W_0 describing enhancement of seismicity. We applied this method to space scanning of North China. The result shows that the mid-term anomalous zone of W_0-value usually appeared obviously around the future epicenter 1~3 years before earthquake. It is effective to mid-term prediction.

Machine Learning-Based Comprehensive Prediction Model for L12 Phase-Strengthened Fe-Co-Ni-Based High-Entropy Alloys

L1_(2)phase-strengthened Fe-Co-Ni-based high-entropy alloys(HEAs)have attracted considerable attention due to their excellent mechanical properties.Improving the properties of HEAs through conventional experimental methods is costly.Therefore,a new method is needed to predict the properties of alloys quickly and accurately.In this study,a comprehensive prediction model for L1_(2)phase-strengthened Fe-Co-Ni-based HEAs was developed.The existence of the L1_(2)phase in the HEAs was first predicted.A link was then established between the microstructure(L1_(2)phase volume fraction)and properties(hardness)of HEAs,and comprehensive prediction was performed.Finally,two mutually exclusive properties(strength and plasticity)of HEAs were coupled and co-optimized.The Shapley additive explained algorithm was also used to interpret the contribution of each model feature to the comprehensive properties of HEAs.The vast compositional and process search space of HEAs was progressively screened in three stages by applying different prediction models.Finally,four HEAs were screened from hundreds of thousands of possible candidate groups,and the prediction results were verified by experiments.In this work,L1_(2)phase-strengthened Fe-Co-Ni-based HEAs with high strength and plasticity were successfully designed.The new method presented herein has a great cost advantage over traditional experimental methods.It is also expected to be applied in the design of HEAs with various excellent properties or to explore the potential factors affecting the microstructure/properties of alloys.

A Comprehensive Price Prediction System Based on Inverse Multiquadrics Radial Basis Function for Portfolio Selection

Price prediction plays a crucial role in portfolio selection (PS). However, most price prediction strategies only make a single prediction and do not have efficient mechanisms to make a comprehensive price prediction. Here, we propose a comprehensive price prediction (CPP) system based on inverse multiquadrics (IMQ) radial basis function. First, the novel radial basis function (RBF) system based on IMQ function rather than traditional Gaussian (GA) function is proposed and centers on multiple price prediction strategies, aiming at improving the efficiency and robustness of price prediction. Under the novel RBF system, we then create a portfolio update strategy based on kernel and trace operator. To assess the system performance, extensive experiments are performed based on 4 data sets from different real-world financial markets. Interestingly, the experimental results reveal that the novel RBF system effectively realizes the integration of different strategies and CPP system outperforms other systems in investing performance and risk control, even considering a certain degree of transaction costs. Besides, CPP can calculate quickly, making it applicable for large-scale and time-limited financial market.

Matter-element models for comprehensive earthquake predication and their applications

Extenics was a branch of mathematics for studying the incompatible problems. In this paper, basing on calculating the associative functions of all various indexes, we have obtained the quantitative assessment results of prediction indexes by introducing this theory into the comprehensive earthquake prediction through establishing the matter-element model for comprehensive prediction, so that the incompatible problems can be solved. The preliminary results demonstrate that this method has better prospects in comprehensive earthquake prediction.

Comprehensive predictive control of neutral-point voltage balancing for back-to-back three-level NPC converters

A comprehensive predictive strategy was proposed for the neutral-point balancing control of back-to-back three-level converters. The phase currents at both sides and the DC-link capacitor voltages were measured for the prediction of the neutral-point current. A quality function was found to balance the neutral-point, and a metabolic on-times distribution factor was used as a predicator to minimize the quality function at each switching state. Simulation results show that the proposed method produces smaller ripples in tested signals compared with the established one, namely, 9.15% less in a total harmonic distortion(THD) of line-to-line voltage, 1.08% less in the THD of phase current, and 0.9 V less in the ripple of the neutral-point voltage. The obtained experimental results show that the main harmonics of the line-to-line voltage and the phase current in the proposed method are improved by 10 d B and 6 d B, respectively, and the ripple of neutral-point voltage is halved compared to the established one.

Predicting geological hazards during tunnel construction

The complicated geological conditions and geological hazards are challenging problems during tunnel construction,which will cause great losses of life and property.Therefore,reliable prediction of geological defective features,such as faults,karst caves and groundwater,has important practical significances and theoretical values.In this paper,we presented the criteria for detecting typical geological anomalies using the tunnel seismic prediction（TSP） method.The ground penetrating radar（GPR） signal response to water-bearing structures was used for theoretical derivations.And the 3D tomography of the transient electromagnetic method（TEM） was used to develop an equivalent conductance method.Based on the improvement of a single prediction technique,we developed a technical system for reliable prediction of geological defective features by analyzing the advantages and disadvantages of all prediction methods.The procedure of the application of this system was introduced in detail.For prediction,the selection of prediction methods is an important and challenging work.The analytic hierarchy process（AHP） was developed for prediction optimization.We applied the newly developed prediction system to several important projects in China,including Hurongxi highway,Jinping II hydropower station,and Kiaochow Bay subsea tunnel.The case studies show that the geological defective features can be successfully detected with good precision and efficiency,and the prediction system is proved to be an effective means to minimize the risks of geological hazards during tunnel construction.

Rediscussion on the seismic regime network

On the basis of the past research and utilization on the windows and belts of seismic regime, the seismic regime network which has been supposed and proved in the past is set up by using the monthly frequency data of small earthquakes from 1970 to 1991 over the whole country. Through checking its function in practice, it is found that the spatial distribution of precursor information is not an isolate window or belt, but a broad precursor information field before the Ms≥7. 0 earthquakes in China and its nearby regions. According to the windows and belts in the field, synchronism and generality of initial time and place of prediction, the comprehensive prediction of activity time periods of groups of strong earthquakes and the detail method of correspondence of groups are proposed. After restrict mathematical test, 10 prediction methods for references are set forth, in which two best methods are selected as references for the whole case prediction in one to three years. Some related problems are discussed at the end of this paper.

Urban Ecosystem Prediction and Comprehensive Evaluation Ideology

In the light of the study of domestic and foreign ur-ban ecosystem,this article puts forward a set of ideological systemsfor the forecast,evaluation and tactic,and conducts initial primaryexploration of its forecast and evaluation methods.