The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change o...The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.展开更多
The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound(VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China,arousing increasing attention to emissions control.In this context,this paper analyses the e...The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound(VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China,arousing increasing attention to emissions control.In this context,this paper analyses the effectiveness of VOC reduction policies,namely pollution charges and environmental taxes at the national and industrial sector levels.It uses a computable general equilibrium model,which connects macroeconomic variables with VOC emissions inventory,to simulate the effects of policy scenarios(with 2007 as the reference year).This paper shows that VOC emissions are reduced by 2.2% when a pollution charge equal to the average cost of engineering reduction methods-the traditional approach to regulation in China-is applied.In order to achieve a similar reduction,an 8.9% indirect tax would have to be imposed.It concludes that an environmental tax should be the preferred method of VOC regulation due to its smaller footprint on the macroeconomy.Other policies,such as subsidies,should be used as supplements.展开更多
This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation...This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.展开更多
Papyrus is increasingly suggested as an alternative bioenergy source to reduce the pressure on forest ecosystems. However, there are few studies on the economic viability of papyrus wetlands and the benefits for local...Papyrus is increasingly suggested as an alternative bioenergy source to reduce the pressure on forest ecosystems. However, there are few studies on the economic viability of papyrus wetlands and the benefits for local communities. We construct a village Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to examine whether papyrus harvesting and processing has the potential to improve local livelihoods and simultaneously counteract pressure on local forest resources. We apply the CGE model to a village in northern Zambia where overexploitation of forest resources to produce energy from firewood and charcoal poses a serious problem. The analysis is based on survey data?from 105 households collected in 2015. The model results show that papyrus briquetting would be a possible?alternative biofuel and that this technology improves household income and utility through?labor?reallocations. Higher opportunity costs lead to households switching from firewood extraction and charcoal production activities to papyrus harvesting and processing to produce bioenergy. Replacing energy supplies from firewood and charcoal with papyrus briquettes results in substitution effects between forest land and wetland and thereby reduces the pressure on local forest resources. The CGE approach allows for an economy-wide ex-ante analysis at village level and can support management decisions to ensure the success of papyrus bioenergy interventions.展开更多
With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaste...With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.展开更多
Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established t...Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China's economy:in a short-term,China's GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.展开更多
Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral...Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the public.We investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience effects.We applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County,California as a case study.We also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling context.We found that despite limitations,EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution,which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact results.The findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters,as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers,whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.展开更多
全球能源经济可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium Model,CGE)模型是研究低碳政策对能源经济系统影响的主要工具,在国际低碳经济研究领域具有重要作用。全球能源经济CGE模型发展起始于20世纪70年代,经过数十年的拓展已经形...全球能源经济可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium Model,CGE)模型是研究低碳政策对能源经济系统影响的主要工具,在国际低碳经济研究领域具有重要作用。全球能源经济CGE模型发展起始于20世纪70年代,经过数十年的拓展已经形成了一批发展成熟且应用广泛的模型平台。我国能源经济CGE模型研究开始于20世纪90年代,研究领域主要聚焦在中国本土与国内区域,而在全球尺度上的模型研究尚处于起步阶段。伴随我国在全球气候治理当中的重要性凸显,中国能源环境问题的研究需要具有国际视野。本文对当前全球能源经济CGE模型的研究现状进行分析,对全球CGE模型的主要作用与特点做出评价,并对典型模型进行比较,在介绍了模型优缺点的基础上对全球能源经济CGE模型的发展趋势与关键问题进行讨论,并对中国未来发展全球模型给出具体建议。全球能源经济CGE模型政策评估的主要优点是评估基于坚实的理论基础,可以根据相关理论判断模型结果是否合理并对政策的作用机制与影响结果做出基于经济规律的解释;以及能源与经济系统整体协调一致的相互作用机制。能源经济CGE模型主要争议性问题包括结果依赖大量参数且参数取值不稳健,以及模型假设过于理想且技术表达抽象。当前能源经济CGE模型研究的关键问题与主要趋向包括:关键参数的实证研究与准确校核、经济系统异质化与细节化描述、技术细节表述与内生化变革以及非理想与不均衡市场条件建模。建议中国开发全球模型应充分借鉴全球先进模型开发的基础与经验,在当前全球模型主流框架下重点研究发展中国家在非理想与不均衡市场环境下经济行为表述的改进,同时注重模型基础数据的整理与重要参数的校核。展开更多
文摘The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program(973 Program)of China:[Grant Number2012CB955800]the National Natural Science Foundation(863 Program)of China:[Grant Number 2012 AA063101]the "Strategic Priority Research Program" of the Chinese Academy of Sciences[Grant Number XDB05050200]
文摘The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound(VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China,arousing increasing attention to emissions control.In this context,this paper analyses the effectiveness of VOC reduction policies,namely pollution charges and environmental taxes at the national and industrial sector levels.It uses a computable general equilibrium model,which connects macroeconomic variables with VOC emissions inventory,to simulate the effects of policy scenarios(with 2007 as the reference year).This paper shows that VOC emissions are reduced by 2.2% when a pollution charge equal to the average cost of engineering reduction methods-the traditional approach to regulation in China-is applied.In order to achieve a similar reduction,an 8.9% indirect tax would have to be imposed.It concludes that an environmental tax should be the preferred method of VOC regulation due to its smaller footprint on the macroeconomy.Other policies,such as subsidies,should be used as supplements.
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41101556,71173212,71203215)
文摘This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.
文摘Papyrus is increasingly suggested as an alternative bioenergy source to reduce the pressure on forest ecosystems. However, there are few studies on the economic viability of papyrus wetlands and the benefits for local communities. We construct a village Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to examine whether papyrus harvesting and processing has the potential to improve local livelihoods and simultaneously counteract pressure on local forest resources. We apply the CGE model to a village in northern Zambia where overexploitation of forest resources to produce energy from firewood and charcoal poses a serious problem. The analysis is based on survey data?from 105 households collected in 2015. The model results show that papyrus briquetting would be a possible?alternative biofuel and that this technology improves household income and utility through?labor?reallocations. Higher opportunity costs lead to households switching from firewood extraction and charcoal production activities to papyrus harvesting and processing to produce bioenergy. Replacing energy supplies from firewood and charcoal with papyrus briquettes results in substitution effects between forest land and wetland and thereby reduces the pressure on local forest resources. The CGE approach allows for an economy-wide ex-ante analysis at village level and can support management decisions to ensure the success of papyrus bioenergy interventions.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42177448 and 41907393)。
文摘With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.
文摘Levying carbon tax is conducive to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and protecting the environment.The author firstly reviewed some relevant empirical studies on carbon tax both home and abroad,and then established the CGE model and simulated levying carbon tax in China.The study found that levying carbon tax would have little impact on China's economy:in a short-term,China's GDP might decrease by 0.51%,while in a long-term it might decrease by 0.08%;however,the carbon dioxide emissions would be substantially reduced.Meanwhile,levying carbon tax has some negative impact on the output of each industry in the very economic structure;of this,the mineral extractive industries would be influenced the most.Then the author summarized experience of levying carbon tax in foreign countries.
基金funded by the NASA Disasters Program grant#NH18ZDA001N001N.
文摘Earth observation(EO) technologies,such as very high-resolution optical satellite data available from Maxar,can enhance economic consequence modeling of disasters by capturing the fine-grained and real-time behavioral responses of businesses and the public.We investigated this unique approach to economic consequence modeling to determine whether crowd-sourced interpretations of EO data can be used to illuminate key economic behavioral responses that could be used for computable general equilibrium modeling of supply chain repercussions and resilience effects.We applied our methodology to the COVID-19 pandemic experience in Los Angeles County,California as a case study.We also proposed a dynamic adjustment approach to account for the changing character of EO through longer-term disasters in the economic modeling context.We found that despite limitations,EO data can increase sectoral and temporal resolution,which leads to significant differences from other data sources in terms of direct and total impact results.The findings from this analytical approach have important implications for economic consequence modeling of disasters,as well as providing useful information to policymakers and emergency managers,whose goal is to reduce disaster costs and to improve economic resilience.
文摘全球能源经济可计算一般均衡(Computable General Equilibrium Model,CGE)模型是研究低碳政策对能源经济系统影响的主要工具,在国际低碳经济研究领域具有重要作用。全球能源经济CGE模型发展起始于20世纪70年代,经过数十年的拓展已经形成了一批发展成熟且应用广泛的模型平台。我国能源经济CGE模型研究开始于20世纪90年代,研究领域主要聚焦在中国本土与国内区域,而在全球尺度上的模型研究尚处于起步阶段。伴随我国在全球气候治理当中的重要性凸显,中国能源环境问题的研究需要具有国际视野。本文对当前全球能源经济CGE模型的研究现状进行分析,对全球CGE模型的主要作用与特点做出评价,并对典型模型进行比较,在介绍了模型优缺点的基础上对全球能源经济CGE模型的发展趋势与关键问题进行讨论,并对中国未来发展全球模型给出具体建议。全球能源经济CGE模型政策评估的主要优点是评估基于坚实的理论基础,可以根据相关理论判断模型结果是否合理并对政策的作用机制与影响结果做出基于经济规律的解释;以及能源与经济系统整体协调一致的相互作用机制。能源经济CGE模型主要争议性问题包括结果依赖大量参数且参数取值不稳健,以及模型假设过于理想且技术表达抽象。当前能源经济CGE模型研究的关键问题与主要趋向包括:关键参数的实证研究与准确校核、经济系统异质化与细节化描述、技术细节表述与内生化变革以及非理想与不均衡市场条件建模。建议中国开发全球模型应充分借鉴全球先进模型开发的基础与经验,在当前全球模型主流框架下重点研究发展中国家在非理想与不均衡市场环境下经济行为表述的改进,同时注重模型基础数据的整理与重要参数的校核。
