Agricultural Policy Simulation Based on Computable General Equilibrium Model

[Objective] This study aimed to examine the simulated effect of Computable General Equilibrium （CGE）-based agricultural policy simulation system. [Method] The policy simulation platform based on CGE model was constructed by integrating policy simulation, CGE model and Decision Supporting System （DSS）. The scenario analysis method was used to analyze the agricultural subsides policy simulation through empirical analysis. [Result] Farmers were the main beneficiaries of increasing agricultural production subsidies, which increased farmers＇ income and improved the export of agriculture products. The prototype system could solve the problems in actual policy simulation. [Conclusion] The results lay the foundation for the quantitative study on agricultural subsidy policy in China.

Intensity Allocation Criteria of Carbon Emissions Permits and Regional Economic Development in China——Based on a 30-Province/Autonomous Region Computable General Equilibrium Model

The intensity allocation criteria of carbon emissions permits and its influence on China＇s regional development are analyzed through the 30-province/autonomous region computable general equilibrium （CGE） model. Simulation results show that： industrial intensity criteria without taking regional economic development into account deepen the unbalance of regional economic development; regional intensity criteria without taking industrial properties into account exert little negative impact on regional harmonious development, but relatively high negative influence on high-carbon emission industries. The two-step allocation scheme that the central government allocates emissions permits to provincial governments based on regional economic development and then provincial governments allocate emissions permits to emission resources or entities based on industrial properties is a feasible and operable choice.

The Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture Production in Ethiopia: Application of a Dynamic Computable General Equilibrium Model

The challenge of meeting the ever-increasing food demand for the growing population will be further exacerbated by climate change in Ethiopia. This paper presents the simulated economy-wide impacts of climate change on the agriculture sector of Ethiopia using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The study simulated the scenarios of agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to the year 2050. At national level, the simulation results suggest that crop production will be adversely affected during the coming four decades and the severity will increase over the time period. Production of teff, maize and sorghum will decline by 25.4, 21.8 and 25.2 percent, respectively by 2050 compared to the base period. Climate change will also cause losses of 31.1 percent agricultural GDP at factor cost by 2050. Climate change affects more the income and consumption of poor rural households than urban rural non-farming households. The reduction in agricultural production will not be evenly distributed across agro ecological zones, and will not all be negative. Among rural residents, climate change impacts tend to hurt the income of the poor more in drought prone regions. Income from labor, land and livestock in moisture sufficient highland cereal-based will decline by 5.1, 8.8 and 15.2 percent in 2050. This study indicated that since climate change is an inevitable phenomenon, the country should start mainstreaming adaptation measures to sustain the overall performance of the economy.

Comparision of China's volatile organic compound pollution management:a computable general equilibrium approach

The public health and ecological impacts of volatile organic compound(VOCs) pollution have become a serious problem in China,arousing increasing attention to emissions control.In this context,this paper analyses the effectiveness of VOC reduction policies,namely pollution charges and environmental taxes at the national and industrial sector levels.It uses a computable general equilibrium model,which connects macroeconomic variables with VOC emissions inventory,to simulate the effects of policy scenarios(with 2007 as the reference year).This paper shows that VOC emissions are reduced by 2.2% when a pollution charge equal to the average cost of engineering reduction methods-the traditional approach to regulation in China-is applied.In order to achieve a similar reduction,an 8.9% indirect tax would have to be imposed.It concludes that an environmental tax should be the preferred method of VOC regulation due to its smaller footprint on the macroeconomy.Other policies,such as subsidies,should be used as supplements.

Impacts of Total Energy Consumption Control and Energy Quota Allocation on China′s Regional Economy Based on A 30-region Computable General Equilibrium Analysis

This paper examined the impacts of the total energy consumption control policy and energy quota allocation plans on China′s regional economy. This research analyzed the influences of different energy quota allocation plans with various weights of equity and efficiency, using a dynamic computable general equilibrium(CGE) model for 30 province-level administrative regions. The results show that the efficiency-first allocation plan costs the least but widens regional income gap, whereas the outcomes of equity-first allocation plan and intensity target-based allocation plan are similar and are both opposite to the efficiency-first allocation plan′ outcome. The plan featuring a balance between efficiency and equity is more feasible, which can bring regional economic losses evenly and prevent massive interregional migration of energy-related industries. Furthermore, the effects of possible induced energy technology improvements in different energy quota allocation plans were studied. Induced energy technology improvements can add more feasibility to all allocation plans under the total energy consumption control policy. In the long term, if the policy of the total energy consumption control continues and more market-based tools are implemented to allocate energy quotas, the positive consequences of induced energy technology improvements will become much more obvious.

A General Equilibrium Model for Energy Policy Evaluation Using GTAP-E for Vietnam

In the past several years, there has been growing concern on the scarcity of energy resources, the volatility of energy prices, and the impact of energy sector on climate change. In this context, energy-environment models designed for analysis of energy systems have become more important. In this paper, a Computable General Equilibrium Model （CGE） using an energy-environmental version of Global Trade Analysis Project （GTAP） model （known as GTAP-E） for Vietnam is presented based on the GTAP Data Base version 7. The model is developed following the original structure and the revised version of the GTAP-E model. This model is used to simulate the adoption of carbon tax for Vietnam for the base year of 2004. The economy-level and detailed sector-specific effects are also examined considering energy intensive and non-intensive sectors. Simulation results show the negative influences of different carbon tax scenarios to Vietnam＇s economy. The results would also indicate the potential of carbon taxation as a driving force for the mitigation of carbon dioxide and for new and renewable energy promotion in Vietnam. In fact, this study is the first simulation exercise of energy-environmental policy for the Vietnamese case.

Papyrus, Forest Resources and Rural Livelihoods: A Village Computable General Equilibrium Analysis from Northern Zambia

Papyrus is increasingly suggested as an alternative bioenergy source to reduce the pressure on forest ecosystems. However, there are few studies on the economic viability of papyrus wetlands and the benefits for local communities. We construct a village Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to examine whether papyrus harvesting and processing has the potential to improve local livelihoods and simultaneously counteract pressure on local forest resources. We apply the CGE model to a village in northern Zambia where overexploitation of forest resources to produce energy from firewood and charcoal poses a serious problem. The analysis is based on survey data?from 105 households collected in 2015. The model results show that papyrus briquetting would be a possible?alternative biofuel and that this technology improves household income and utility through?labor?reallocations. Higher opportunity costs lead to households switching from firewood extraction and charcoal production activities to papyrus harvesting and processing to produce bioenergy. Replacing energy supplies from firewood and charcoal with papyrus briquettes results in substitution effects between forest land and wetland and thereby reduces the pressure on local forest resources. The CGE approach allows for an economy-wide ex-ante analysis at village level and can support management decisions to ensure the success of papyrus bioenergy interventions.

Integrated Water and CGE Model of the Impacts of Water Policy on the Beijing's Economy and Output

The article used general equilibrium model to analyze the change of gross domestic product and industry output affected by water resources policies in Beijing City by using GEMPACK soft tool.The article researches on rules of water supply and demand,evaluating water resources,building water resources input and output table,establishing water computable general equilibrium model and stimulating water policy.The stimulation gives a scenario that increases water price by 10%.The result shows the following aspects.First,water resources policy infects gross domestic product and industry output in different ways.There are different behaviors in different industries as to the water policy. Agriculture industry has the same tendency as water price change and it has more sensitive to water quantity than to water price.For basic energy industries such as oil and chemistry and gas,they show diversity tendency.As to some high water consumer industry such as paper and textile etc.,water resource economic policy can infect them greatly and can promote them to accomplish more water-saving technology.Waste water and construction and service industries show the same tendency as to water policy.Second,government should pay more attention to water resource policy by macro economic administration.The simulation also shows that the output and supply and consumer price change more than expect as to water policy in a free market economic in water industry.So as to a government policy maker,one should be more carefully and prepare suitable forecast and plan to water policy and its negative impact.

The Impact of Climate Change on China＇s Grain Market and Food Security-- A CGE Model Approach

This paper examines the impact of climate change on China＇s grain production and food security. The research is one of the four studies on future conditions of China＇s food production system under the influence of climate change using numerical simulation methods, carried out under a national 973 project entitled ＂impacts of climate change on food systems in China and its adaptation＂. The other three studies focus on changes in cultivated land area and food production, while this study incorporates their grain yield results into a general equilibrium model to simulate future conditions of the grain market. Our simulation analysis arrives at the impact of climate change by comparing such economic variables as grain production, consumption, and GDP growth rate between a baseline scenario and two climate change scenarios. Our results are summarized as follows： （1） In 2050, the total grain production will reach 689.683 million tons--584.264 million tons of total grain consumption and 42.808 million tons of exports. Without considering losses and inventory demand, in 2050 China＇s grain supply and demand will remain well balanced, with a slight surplus expected. （2） Climate change is expected to benefit China＇s macro economy and individual sectors. In comparison with the baseline scenario of no climate change, real wage, real GDP, investment, household consumption, exports, and other macroeconomic indicators will rise under the climate change scenarios. As far as the agricultural, manufacturing, and service sectors are concerned, production, consumption, imports, and exports will each be favorably affected by climate change. （3） The favorable impact of climate change on China＇s macroeconomy and individual sectors under the high emissions scenario （A2） is stronger than that under the low emissions scenario （B2）. （4） In the grain market, climate change is expected to increase supply, reduce imports, increase supply, and demand; and supply will increase more than demand does. All in all, if taking into the fertilization effect of CO2 account, climate change is expected to strengthen China＇s grain supply and safeguard food security.

Assessing the Regional Economic Ripple Effect of Flood Disasters Based on a Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Model Considering Traffic Disruptions

With growing regional economic integration,transportation systems have become critical to regional development and economic vitality but vulnerable to disasters.However,the regional economic ripple effect of a disaster is difficult to quantify accurately,especially considering the cumulated influence of traffic disruptions.This study explored integrating transportation system analysis with economic modeling to capture the regional economic ripple effect.A state-of-the-art spatial computable general equilibrium model is leveraged to simulate the operation of the economic system,and the marginal rate of transport cost is introduced to reflect traffic network damage post-disaster.The model is applied to the 50-year return period flood in2020 in Hubei Province,China.The results show the following.First,when traffic disruption costs are considered,the total output loss of non-affected areas is 1.81 times than before,and non-negligible losses reach relatively remote zones of the country,such as the Northwest Comprehensive Economic Zone(36%of total ripple effects).Second,traffic disruptions have a significant hindering effect on regional trade activities,especially in the regional intermediate input—about three times more than before.The industries most sensitive to traffic disruptions were transportation,storage,and postal service(5 times),and processing and assembly manufacturing(4.4 times).Third,the longer the distance,the stronger traffic disruptions'impact on interregional intermediate inputs.Thus,increasing investment in transportation infrastructure significantly contributes to mitigating disaster ripple effects and accelerating the process of industrial recovery in affected areas.

面向新型工业化的碳定价政策与创新投入协同优化

碳定价政策是实现“双碳”目标的核心市场机制,创新发展是推动新型工业化的内在驱动力。如何协同设计碳定价政策和创新投入政策,加速工业绿色低碳转型,是中国实现新型工业化过程中的关键问题。研究构建了一个包含创新要素和创新活动部门的动态可计算一般均衡模型,重点描述创新活动对于可再生能源技术进步和工业部门能源效率提升的促进机制。基于该模型,评估不同碳定价政策和碳收入用于创新活动的多种情景的政策效果,结合新型工业化主要特征,从经济、碳排放、减排成本、能源消耗、电气化水平和创新活动水平等维度进行了模拟分析和比较,得到了优化的政策组合。结果表明,通过将碳定价政策结合碳收入按一定比例分配给创新活动部门和风电光伏,可以在实现节能减排的同时稳定经济增长,降低减排成本,提高可再生能源比例,促进能源低碳转型,实现工业部门的低碳增长,推动新型工业化进程。

基于CGE模型的能源税政策影响分析

在能源—环境—经济(3E)研究领域中,CGE模型得到了广泛的应用。本文通过一个10部门静态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型定量分析中国实施能源税对经济、能源、环境以及各生产部门的影响。模型以2002年为基准年,研究设定5个情景,包括一个基准情景和四个能源税征收情景。模型模拟分析表明,征收能源税对国民经济总量增长有轻微影响;与此同时,能源税政策有利于减少能源需求量,降低能源强度,减少煤炭在能源合成品中的份额,对能源结构的改善有一定作用,并可促进产业结构的调整,有利于减少二氧化碳和二氧化硫的排放量,改善环境质量。在实施的过程中,可以采用渐进提高税率,并在征收能源税的同时,降低所得税(用能源税收入替代其它税种的收入)以及减免行政性收费等方式,实现税制的绿化,且可避免对国民经济和居民生活产生明显冲击。

可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型与环境政策分析

CGE模型是进行环境政策分析的理想工具 ,实际上CGE模型也是唯一有可能精确评估环境政策社会成本的分析手段。本文介绍了在环境政策分析中应用CGE模型的基本思路和不同类型 ;回顾了CGE模型在环境政策分析中的应用领域及国内应用现状 ;指出今后在环境政策分析中应用的CGE模型应该更多地结合经济体的现实特征 ,其发展方向则体现在三个方面 :在分析环境政策社会成本的同时也考虑这些政策的社会效益、分析环境政策的分配效应。

CGE与GIS集成的中国城市增长情景模拟框架研究

建立机理和空间明确的城市模拟模型,对刻画我国城市未来情景、推演城市增长的环境影响、解释城市增长复杂性具有重要意义。现有的城市模拟模型偏重于对单个城市或城市区域进行模拟,大多缺乏可靠的经济学基础。通过有效集成CGE模型、GIS空间分析和格网动力学模型,采用多区域可计算一般均衡模型将分散的城市模拟模型连接成为相互作用的“城市模型体系”,提出一个经济机理和地理参考明确的、多维度、多尺度、可运行的中国城市未来模拟模型框架,阐述其假设、逻辑、主要内容与关键技术。

基于CGE模型的碳税政策影响研究

基于2012年社会核算矩阵(SAM),采用增加碳税模块的可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),构建了测算中国碳税政策影响的涵盖42个部门的动态递归CGE模型(其中包含4个化石能源生产部门和1个电力能源生产部门),以此来分析不同税率情境下碳税政策实施对我国国内生产总值(GDP)、能源消费和碳减排的动态影响。结果表明:征收碳税将对我国GDP造成负面影响,且随着税率的不断升高,GDP的下降率将不断增大。同时,碳税政策的实施使得高碳排放行业能源消费量明显减少,并提高了清洁能源的使用量,而总的二氧化碳减排量则随着税率的不断升高而逐渐增大。

可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型及其建模仿真、发展和应用

简单介绍了经济系统的一个仿真模型，可计算一般均衡（ＣＧＥ）模型；讨论了其应用与发展，介绍了其仿真求解技术与新的发展方向。

人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各产业的影响——基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的分析

本文构建了一个可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)以量化估算人民币实际汇率升值对中国经济各部门的影响。根据中国2005年投入产出表编制了中国2005年社会核算矩阵作为CGE模型的基础数据集。论文的主要结论:除服务业、建筑业外,人民币实际汇率升值使大部分产业产出下降,升值的财富效应导致国内购买力增强,服务业、建筑业产出随之增加;升值使农业部门的农业劳动力需求减少,服务业、建筑业的劳动力需求增加,大部分非农行业的劳动力需求也都趋于减少。

环境CGE模型的开发方法与应用综述

概述了在政策实施的环境影响越来越引起社会各界广泛重视的背景下，运用可计算一般均衡（CGE）模型来评估政策或外部冲击对环境产生的影响已成为环境政策研究领域的1个热点。指出CGE模型着眼于整个社会经济系统内的各类商品和要素间的供给与需求关系，并要求所有的市场出清；当价格、产业结构、政策变动和宏观经济变量等都是重要的影响因素时．CGE模型是非常有力的分析工具。全面回顾和总结了环境CGE模型的开发方法和应用进程。在总结几大奠基性环境CGE模型的建模思想的基础上，将环境CGE模型的主要开发方法归纳为4类：对资源、环境类的生产部门和要素进行单独处理；引入新的方程模块来刻画与环境．能源等相关的问题；通过改造生产或消费函数将环境效应引入到模型中；改造或扩展模型的数据基础。简要评述了每类方法的特点和适用情况。总结、展望了环境CGE模型在国内外的应用情况，以及未来的应用发展趋势。

我国税收变动对外贸顺差调整的影响研究——基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)的数值模拟

基于可计算一般均衡模型(CGE),对我国税收变动和外贸顺差调整之间的关系进行数值模拟。研究显示:增值税下降10个百分点,外贸顺差将降低15个百分点;个人所得税每下降10个百分点,外贸顺差将降低18个百分点;企业所得税每降低10个百分点,外贸顺差将下降0.036个百分点,而企业所得税每上升10个百分点,外贸顺差将增加0.231个百分点;营业税在整个税收中所占比例较小,其对外贸顺差也具负向影响。为了均衡税收与外贸的整体发展,最后提出了税制改革的政策建议。

迈向碳中和:中国减煤路径的模拟与评估

为应对全球气候变暖问题,中国提出努力争取2060年前实现碳中和的目标。目前,中国的主要碳排放源自能源消费,而能源消费仍以煤炭消费为主。因此,减少煤炭消费成为中国实现碳中和目标的关键第一步。该研究通过构建动态递归可计算一般均衡模型,深入探讨了多种减煤路径,包括煤炭去产能、碳税、碳交易和煤炭资源税等。通过情景模拟,评估了这些途径在达成相同减煤效果时,对宏观经济、碳排放、产业及能源结构的影响。研究发现,在中国特有的能源体系中,实施减煤路径必将带来碳排放的降低,但不同路径对GDP、产业结构和能源结构的影响却不尽相同。具体来说,煤炭去产能和煤炭资源税对GDP的负面影响最轻,但对于推动产业结构和能源结构的清洁转型没有显著效果,主因是企业能够通过采购廉价能源来维持低成本,从而未根本改变能源成本,且大幅度提升了对外能源依赖度;碳税、碳交易及其混合机制显著促进了产业结构的优化,虽然减排效果更佳,却对经济总量造成了较大的负面影响,因为该类路径考虑了所有能源品种的碳排放成本。建议:一是应注重需求侧减煤路径和碳减排政策的协同效应,完善碳交易机制,尽早将其他高耗能行业纳入碳交易体系,同时需要注意严格碳排放总量控制可能带来的经济损失风险;二是推进电力市场化改革,实现“碳-电”协同减排,将是未来20年减煤降碳的核心策略;三是借助电力市场化的红利,优化煤炭替代策略,如火电可逐步从基荷功能转变为调峰功能。