Mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model for stochastic monthly streamflow simulation

Copula functions have been widely used in stochastic simulation and prediction of streamflow.However,existing models are usually limited to single two-dimensional or three-dimensional copulas with the same bivariate block for all months.To address this limitation,this study developed a mixed D-vine copula-based conditional quantile model that can capture temporal correlations.This model can generate streamflow by selecting different historical streamflow variables as the conditions for different months and by exploiting the conditional quantile functions of streamflows in different months with mixed D-vine copulas.The up-to-down sequential method,which couples the maximum weight approach with the Akaike information criteria and the maximum likelihood approach,was used to determine the structures of multivariate Dvine copulas.The developed model was used in a case study to synthesize the monthly streamflow at the Tangnaihai hydrological station,the inflow control station of the Longyangxia Reservoir in the Yellow River Basin.The results showed that the developed model outperformed the commonly used bivariate copula model in terms of the performance in simulating the seasonality and interannual variability of streamflow.This model provides useful information for water-related natural hazard risk assessment and integrated water resources management and utilization.

Attribute Reduction of Hybrid Decision Information Systems Based on Fuzzy Conditional Information Entropy

The presence of numerous uncertainties in hybrid decision information systems(HDISs)renders attribute reduction a formidable task.Currently available attribute reduction algorithms,including those based on Pawlak attribute importance,Skowron discernibility matrix,and information entropy,struggle to effectively manages multiple uncertainties simultaneously in HDISs like the precise measurement of disparities between nominal attribute values,and attributes with fuzzy boundaries and abnormal values.In order to address the aforementioned issues,this paper delves into the study of attribute reduction withinHDISs.First of all,a novel metric based on the decision attribute is introduced to solve the problem of accurately measuring the differences between nominal attribute values.The newly introduced distance metric has been christened the supervised distance that can effectively quantify the differences between the nominal attribute values.Then,based on the newly developed metric,a novel fuzzy relationship is defined from the perspective of“feedback on parity of attribute values to attribute sets”.This new fuzzy relationship serves as a valuable tool in addressing the challenges posed by abnormal attribute values.Furthermore,leveraging the newly introduced fuzzy relationship,the fuzzy conditional information entropy is defined as a solution to the challenges posed by fuzzy attributes.It effectively quantifies the uncertainty associated with fuzzy attribute values,thereby providing a robust framework for handling fuzzy information in hybrid information systems.Finally,an algorithm for attribute reduction utilizing the fuzzy conditional information entropy is presented.The experimental results on 12 datasets show that the average reduction rate of our algorithm reaches 84.04%,and the classification accuracy is improved by 3.91%compared to the original dataset,and by an average of 11.25%compared to the other 9 state-of-the-art reduction algorithms.The comprehensive analysis of these research results clearly indicates that our algorithm is highly effective in managing the intricate uncertainties inherent in hybrid data.

Conditional Generative Adversarial Network Enabled Localized Stress Recovery of Periodic Composites

Structural damage in heterogeneousmaterials typically originates frommicrostructures where stress concentration occurs.Therefore,evaluating the magnitude and location of localized stress distributions within microstructures under external loading is crucial.Repeating unit cells(RUCs)are commonly used to represent microstructural details and homogenize the effective response of composites.This work develops a machine learning-based micromechanics tool to accurately predict the stress distributions of extracted RUCs.The locally exact homogenization theory efficiently generates the microstructural stresses of RUCs with a wide range of parameters,including volume fraction,fiber/matrix property ratio,fiber shapes,and loading direction.Subsequently,the conditional generative adversarial network(cGAN)is employed and constructed as a surrogate model to establish the statistical correlation between these parameters and the corresponding localized stresses.The stresses predicted by cGAN are validated against the remaining true data not used for training,showing good agreement.This work demonstrates that the cGAN-based micromechanics tool effectively captures the local responses of composite RUCs.It can be used for predicting potential crack initiations starting from microstructures and evaluating the effective behavior of periodic composites.

Optimization of Generator Based on Gaussian Process Regression Model with Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search

The noise that comes from finite element simulation often causes the model to fall into the local optimal solution and over fitting during optimization of generator.Thus,this paper proposes a Gaussian Process Regression(GPR)model based on Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search(CLLBS)to optimize the design of the generator,which can filter the noise in the data and search for global optimization by combining the Conditional Likelihood Lower Bound Search method.Taking the efficiency optimization of 15 kW Permanent Magnet Synchronous Motor as an example.Firstly,this method uses the elementary effect analysis to choose the sensitive variables,combining the evolutionary algorithm to design the super Latin cube sampling plan;Then the generator-converter system is simulated by establishing a co-simulation platform to obtain data.A Gaussian process regression model combing the method of the conditional likelihood lower bound search is established,which combined the chi-square test to optimize the accuracy of the model globally.Secondly,after the model reaches the accuracy,the Pareto frontier is obtained through the NSGA-II algorithm by considering the maximum output torque as a constraint.Last,the constrained optimization is transformed into an unconstrained optimizing problem by introducing maximum constrained improvement expectation(CEI)optimization method based on the re-interpolation model,which cross-validated the optimization results of the Gaussian process regression model.The above method increase the efficiency of generator by 0.76%and 0.5%respectively;And this method can be used for rapid modeling and multi-objective optimization of generator systems.

Characterizing large-scale weak interlayer shear zones using conditional random field theory

The shear behavior of large-scale weak intercalation shear zones(WISZs)often governs the stability of foundations,rock slopes,and underground structures.However,due to their wide distribution,undulating morphology,complex fabrics,and varying degrees of contact states,characterizing the shear behavior of natural and complex large-scale WISZs precisely is challenging.This study proposes an analytical method to address this issue,based on geological fieldwork and relevant experimental results.The analytical method utilizes the random field theory and Kriging interpolation technique to simplify the spatial uncertainties of the structural and fabric features for WISZs into the spatial correlation and variability of their mechanical parameters.The Kriging conditional random field of the friction angle of WISZs is embedded in the discrete element software 3DEC,enabling activation analysis of WISZ C2 in the underground caverns of the Baihetan hydropower station.The results indicate that the activation scope of WISZ C2 induced by the excavation of underground caverns is approximately 0.5e1 times the main powerhouse span,showing local activation.Furthermore,the overall safety factor of WISZ C2 follows a normal distribution with an average value of 3.697.

Conditional survival probability of distant-metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma: A population-based study

BACKGROUND The prognosis of many patients with distant metastatic hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC)improved after they survived for several months.Compared with tradi-tional survival analysis,conditional survival(CS)which takes into account changes in survival risk could be used to describe dynamic survival probabilities.AIM To evaluate CS of distant metastatic HCC patients.METHODS Patients diagnosed with distant metastatic HCC between 2010 and 2015 were extracted from the Surveillance,Epidemiology and End Results database.Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify factors for overall survival(OS),while competing risk model was used to identify risk factors for cancer-specific survival(CSS).Six-month CS was used to calculate the probability of survival for an additional 6 mo at a specific time after initial diagnosis,and standardized difference(d)was used to evaluate the survival differences between subgroups.Nomograms were constructed to predict CS.Positiveα-fetoprotein expression,higher T stage(T3 and T4),N1 stage,non-primary site surgery,non-chemotherapy,non-radiotherapy,and lung metastasis were independent risk factors for actual OS and CSS through univariate and multivariate analysis.Actual survival rates decreased over time,while CS rates gradually increased.As for the 6-month CS,the survival difference caused by chemotherapy and radiotherapy gradually disappeared over time,and the survival difference caused by lung metastasis reversed.Moreover,the influence of age and gender on survival gradually appeared.Nomograms were fitted for patients who have lived for 2,4 and 6 mo to predict 6-month conditional OS and CSS,respectively.The area under the curve(AUC)of nomograms for conditional OS decreased as time passed,and the AUC for conditional CSS gradually increased.CONCLUSION CS for distant metastatic HCC patients substantially increased over time.With dynamic risk factors,nomograms constructed at a specific time could predict more accurate survival rates.

An Analysis of Conditional Survival Rates for Ewing Sarcoma Patients

Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program based at the National Cancer Institute in the US, conditional survival rates are reported for 1,988 Ewing Sarcoma patients diagnosed during the period 2000-2015. These patients represent the experience of 26.5% of the US population. Specifically, 5-year conditional relative survival rates are calculated for these patients for the first eight years subsequent to diagnosis of their cancer by Extent of Disease (EOD) (Localized, Regional, and Distant as coded by the SEER Program), gender, and age (<18, 18 - 34, and 35+). Findings include showing how the conditional survival rate patterns improve over time and that there are differences by gender, age, and EOD.

A Contrastive Analysis of Conditionals in English and Moroccan Arabic: Potential problems when learning English conditionals by Moroccan EFL learners

Learning to handle hypothetical situations in a new language is always difficult(Catford,et al.,1974).This rule holds true for Moroccan Arabic(henceforth MA)speakers learning English because grammatical devices in the two languages differ in almost all equivalent situations.For instance,while English verb forms are used to indicate tense in conditional sentences,MA uses them to indicate aspect.Adopting the typology of conditional constructions suggested by Dancygier(1999)and Dancygier&Sweetser(2005),this study provides a contrastive analysis of conditionals in English and MA to predict the possible errors EFL/ESL learners are likely to make while learning English.The analysis shows that the main discrepancy between English conditionals and MA conditionals lies in the verb form used by the two systems.Accordingly,if EFL/ESL learners are influenced by verb form in their L1,they are likely to face some challenges while learning English conditionals.That is,they are likely to use the past tense in the protases of English predictive conditionals and generic conditionals since the perfective form of the verb is used in the protases of these two types in MA.Concerning the protases of English non-predictive conditionals,Moroccan EFL/ESL learners are likely to use either the past tense or the present tense since both the perfective and the imperfective forms of the verb are possible in the protases of MA non-predictive conditionals.However,due to the fact that the perfective form is the prototypical form in the protases of conditionals in MA,EFL/ESL learners are likely to use the past tense more often than the present tense.The analysis also shows that EFL/ESL learners tend to use the present tense in the apodoses of English conditionals since the prevalent form in the apodoses of MA conditionals is the imperfective.

A novel conditional diagnosability algorithm under the PMC model

Conditionally t-diagnosable and t-diagnosable are important in system level diagnosis. Therefore,it is valuable to identify whether the system is conditionally t-diagnosable or t-diagnosable and derive the corresponding conditional diagnosability and diagnosability. In the paper,distinguishable measures of pairs of distinct faulty sets with a new perspective on establishing functions are focused.Applying distinguishable function and decision function,it is determined whether a system is conditionally t-diagnosable( or t-diagnosable) or not under the PMC( Preparata,Metze,and Chien)model directly. Based on the decision function,a novel conditional diagnosability algorithm under the PMC model is introduced which can calculate conditional diagnosability rapidly.

Identification of unconditional and conditional QTL for oil, protein and starch content in maize

Oil, protein and starch are key chemical components of maize kernels. A population of 245 recombinant inbred lines(RILs) derived from a cross between a high-oil inbred line, By804, and a regular inbred line, B73, was used to dissect the genetic interrelationships among oil, starch and protein content at the individual QTL level by unconditional and conditional QTL mapping. Combined phenotypic data over two years with a genetic linkage map constructed using 236 markers, nine, five and eight unconditional QTL were detected for oil, protein and starch content, respectively. Some QTL for oil, protein and starch content were clustered in the same genomic regions and the direction of their effects was consistent with the sign of their correlation. In conditional QTL mapping, 37(29/8) unconditional QTL were not detected or showed reduced effects, four QTL demonstrated similar effects under unconditional and conditional QTL mapping, and 17 additional QTL were identified by conditional QTL mapping. These results imply that there is a strong genetic relationship among oil, protein and starch content in maize kernels. The information generated in the present investigation could be helpful in marker-assisted breeding for maize varieties with desirable kernel quality traits.

Unconditional and Conditional QTL Mapping for Tiller Numbers at Various Stages with Single Segment Substitution Lines in Rice(Oryza sativa L.)

Tiller is one of the most important agronomic traits which influences quantity and quality of effective panicles and finally influences yield in rice. It is important to understand ＂static＂ and ＂dynamic＂ information of the QTLs for tillers in rice. This work was the first time to simultaneously map unconditional and conditional QTLs for tiller numbers at various stages by using single segment substitution lines in rice. Fourteen QTLs for tiller number, distributing on the corresponding substitution segments of chromosomes 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7 and 8 were detected. Both the number and the effect of the QTLs for tiller number were various at different stages, from 6 to 9 in the number and from 1.49 to 3.49 in the effect, respectively. Tiller number QTLs expressed in a time order, mainly detected at three stages of 0-7 d, 14-21 d and 35-42 d after transplanting with 6 positive, 9 random and 6 negative expressing QTLs, respectively. Each of the QTLs expressed one time at least during the whole duration of rice. The tiller number at a specific stage was determined by sum of QTL effects estimated by the unconditional method, while the increasing or decreasing number in a given time interval was controlled by the total of QTL effects estimated by the conditional method. These results demonstrated that it is highly effective and accurate for mapping of the QTLs by using single segment substitution lines and the conditional analysis methodology.

Conditional and unconditional QTLs mapping of gluten strength in common wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Dissecting the genetic relationships among gluten-related traits is important for high quality wheat breeding. Quantita- tive trait loci （QTLs） analysis for gluten strength, as measured by sedimentation volume （SV） and gluten index （GI）, was performed using the QTLNetwork 2.0 software. Recombinant inbred lines （RILs） derived from the winter wheat varieties Shannong 01-35xGaocheng 9411 were used for the study. A total of seven additive QTLs for gluten strength were identi- fied using an unconditional analysis. QGi1D-13 and QSv1D-14 were detected through unconditional and conditional QTLs mapping, which explained 9.15-45.08% of the phenotypic variation. QTLs only identified under conditional QTL mapping were located in three marker intervals： WPT-3743-GLU-D1 （1D）, WPT-7001-WMC258 （1B）, and WPT-8682-WPT-5562 （1B）. Six pairs of epistatic QTLs distributed nine chromosomes were identified. Of these, two main effect QTLs （QGi1D-13 and QSvlD-14） and 12 pairs of epistatic QTLs were involved in interactions with the environment. The results indicated that chromosomes 1B and 1D are important for the improvement of gluten strength in common wheat. The combination of conditional and unconditional QTLs mapping could be useful for a better understanding of the interdependence of different traits at the QTL molecular level.

Nonparametric inferences for kurtosis and conditional kurtosis

Under the assumption of strictly stationary process, this paper proposes a nonparametric model to test the kurtosis and conditional kurtosis for risk time series. We apply this method to the daily returns of S＆P500 index and the Shanghai Composite Index, and simulate GARCH data for verifying the efficiency of the presented model. Our results indicate that the risk series distribution is heavily tailed, but the historical information can make its future distribution light-tailed. However the far future distribution＇s tails are little affected by the historical data.

Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Track with Orthogonal Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations

This paper preliminarily investigates the application of the orthogonal conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations(CNOPs)–based ensemble forecast technique in MM5(Fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model). The results show that the ensemble forecast members generated by the orthogonal CNOPs present large spreads but tend to be located on the two sides of real tropical cyclone(TC) tracks and have good agreements between ensemble spreads and ensemble-mean forecast errors for TC tracks. Subsequently, these members reflect more reasonable forecast uncertainties and enhance the orthogonal CNOPs–based ensemble-mean forecasts to obtain higher skill for TC tracks than the orthogonal SVs(singular vectors)–, BVs(bred vectors)– and RPs(random perturbations)–based ones. The results indicate that orthogonal CNOPs of smaller magnitudes should be adopted to construct the initial ensemble perturbations for short lead–time forecasts, but those of larger magnitudes should be used for longer lead–time forecasts due to the effects of nonlinearities. The performance of the orthogonal CNOPs–based ensemble-mean forecasts is case-dependent,which encourages evaluating statistically the forecast skill with more TC cases. Finally, the results show that the ensemble forecasts with only initial perturbations in this work do not increase the forecast skill of TC intensity, which may be related with both the coarse model horizontal resolution and the model error.

Application of the Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbation Method to the Predictability Study of the Kuroshio Large Meander

A reduced-gravity barotropic shallow-water model was used to simulate the Kuroshio path variations. The results show that the model was able to capture the essential features of these path variations. We used one simulation of the model as the reference state and investigated the effects of errors in model parameters on the prediction of the transition to the Kuroshio large meander （KLM） state using the conditional nonlinear optimal parameter perturbation （CNOP-P） method. Because of their relatively large uncertainties, three model parameters were considered： the interracial friction coefficient, the wind-stress amplitude, and the lateral friction coefficient. We determined the CNOP-Ps optimized for each of these three parameters independently, and we optimized all three parameters simultaneously using the Spectral Projected Gradient 2 （SPG2） algorithm. Similarly, the impacts caused by errors in initial conditions were examined using the conditional nonlinear optimal initial perturbation （CNOP-I） method. Both the CNOP-I and CNOP-Ps can result in significant prediction errors of the KLM over a lead time of 240 days. But the prediction error caused by CNOP-I is greater than that caused by CNOP-P. The results of this study indicate not only that initial condition errors have greater effects on the prediction of the KLM than errors in model parameters but also that the latter cannot be ignored. Hence, to enhance the forecast skill of the KLM in this model, the initial conditions should first be improved, the model parameters should use the best possible estimates.

A Variant Constrained Genetic Algorithm for Solving Conditional Nonlinear Optimal Perturbations

A variant constrained genetic algorithm （VCGA） for effective tracking of conditional nonlinear optimal perturbations （CNOPs） is presented. Compared with traditional constraint handling methods, the treatment of the constraint condition in VCGA is relatively easy to implement. Moreover, it does not require adjustments to indefinite pararneters. Using a hybrid crossover operator and the newly developed multi-ply mutation operator, VCGA improves the performance of GAs. To demonstrate the capability of VCGA to catch CNOPS in non-smooth cases, a partial differential equation, which has ＂on off＂ switches in its forcing term, is employed as the nonlinear model. To search global CNOPs of the nonlinear model, numerical experiments using VCGA, the traditional gradient descent algorithm based on the adjoint method （ADJ）, and a GA using tournament selection operation and the niching technique （GA-DEB） were performed. The results with various initial reference states showed that, in smooth cases, all three optimization methods are able to catch global CNOPs. Nevertheless, in non-smooth situations, a large proportion of CNOPs captured by the ADJ are local. Compared with ADJ, the performance of GA-DEB shows considerable improvement, but it is far below VCGA. Further, the impacts of population sizes on both VCGA and GA-DEB were investigated. The results were used to estimate the computation time of ~CGA and GA-DEB in obtaining CNOPs. The computational costs for VCGA, GA-DEB and ADJ to catch CNOPs of the nonlinear model are also compared.

Conditional QTL Mapping of Sedimentation Volume on Seven Quality Traits in Common Wheat

To evaluate the possible genetic interrelationships between flour components and the sedimentation volume（SD）,a doubled haploid（DH） population comprising 168 lines were used to identify the conditional quantitative trait loci（QTLs） for SD in three environments.Ten additive QTLs and 15 pairs of epistatic QTLs were detected for SD through unconditional and conditional QTL mapping.Three major additive QTLs were detected for SD conditioned on the seven quality traits.Two additive QTLs were found to be independent of these traits.Three additive QTLs were suppressed by three of the seven traits because of non-detection in unconditional mapping.Three pairs of epistatic QTLs were completely affected by the seven traits because of detection in unconditional mapping but no-detection in conditional mapping.Twelve pairs of epistatic QTLs were detected in conditional mapping.Our results indicated that conditional mapping could contribute to a better understanding of the interdependence of different and closely correlated traits at the QTL molecular level,especially some minor QTLs were found.The conditional mapping approach provides new insights that will make it possible to avoid the disadvantages of different traits by breeding through molecular design.

Detection and characterization of regulatory elements using probabilistic conditional random field and hidden Markov models

By altering the electrostatic charge of histones or providing binding sites to protein recognition molecules, Chromatin marks have been proposed to regulate gene expression, a property that has motivated researchers to link these marks to cis-regulatory elements. With the help of next generation sequencing technologies, we can now correlate one specific chromatin mark with regulatory elements (e.g. enhancers or promoters) and also build tools, such as hidden Markov models, to gain insight into mark combinations. However, hidden Markov models have limitation for their character of generative models and assume that a current observation depends only on a current hidden state in the chain. Here, we employed two graphical probabilistic models, namely the linear conditional random field model and multivariate hidden Markov model, to mark gene regions with different states based on recurrent and spatially coherent character of these eight marks. Both models revealed chromatin states that may correspond to enhancers and promoters, transcribed regions, transcriptional elongation, and low-signal regions. We also found that the linear conditional random field model was more effective than the hidden Markov model in recognizing regulatory elements, such as promoter-, enhancer-, and transcriptional elongation-associated regions, which gives us a better choice.

Conditional survival in patients with gallbladder cancer

Background: Conditional survival(CS) has been established as a clinically relevant prognostic factor for cancer survivors, and the CS in gallbladder(GB) cancer has not yet been fully evaluated. In this study, we evaluated the cancerspecific CS rate and cancer-specific survival(CSS) rate in patients with GB cancer at multiple time points and investigated prognostic factors which affect cancer-specific CS rate to provide more accurate survival information.Methods: Between 2004 and 2013, a total of 9760 patients with GB cancer were identified from the Surveillance,Epidemiology, and End Results(SEER) data. The 3-year cancer-specific CS rate was calculated using the covariateadjusted survival function in the Cox model for each year since diagnosis, and the results were analyzed together with the adjusted CSS rates at the same time points. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to ascertain the individual contribution of factors associated with CSS rate at diagnosis and cancer-specific CS rates at 1,3, and 5 years after diagnosis.Results: The adjusted 5-year CSS rate was 26.1 %. The adjusted 3-year cancer-specific CS rates at 1,2,3,4, and 5 years after diagnosis were 55.5,72.2,81.5,86.8, and 90.5%, respectively. At the time of diagnosis, age, race, histology, grade,T, N, and M categories, surgery, radiotherapy, insurance status, and marriage status were significant prognostic factors of CSS. Five years after diagnosis, however,T and M categories were significant prognostic factors for survivors(P = 0.007 and P = 0.009, respectively), whereas surgery and radiotherapy were not.Conclusions: T and M categories were significant prognostic factors even 5 years after the initial diagnosis, whereas local treatments at the time of diagnosis were not, suggesting that patients with GB cancer at high risks might need further adjuvant therapy after primary treatments. The combined analysis of CSS and cancer-specific CS rates offered more accurate survival information for patients who have already survived a certain period of time after diagnosis.